HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PYTH

PYTH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pyth · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.89%
realized vol (ann.)
108.26%
max drawdown
1.60%
sharpe
25.02
ulcer index
0.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.37%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5708.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2127.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.89%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pyth/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.039
24h Δ · live
0.89%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
PYTH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0385 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0377, 0.0398] · R²=0.113▲ RISING +2.43%σ NORMAL 1.36%LAST 0.03920.03980.03930.03880.03830.0377μ = 0.0385max 0.0398min 0.0377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=26,532,642 · μ=1061305.7 · σ=779347.6 · CV=0.73RISING +97% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170680,3341,360,6682,041,0022,721,336μ = 10613062,721,33650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2721336 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.0392
$mid $
$0.0392
◉prev-day close
$0.0389
Δ24h Δ %
+0.890%
$24h vol $
$1.02M
◐open interest $
$1.04M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0385 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0377, 0.0398] · R²=0.113▲ RISING +2.43%σ NORMAL 1.36%LAST 0.03920.03980.03930.03880.03830.0377μ = 0.0385max 0.0398min 0.0377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0392 · 24h 0.89% · range $[0.0377, 0.0398]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0377, 0.0400] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BULLISH +1.32%CLOSE 0.0392 vs OPEN 0.0387 (+1.32%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03920.04000.03940.03880.03820.0377μ close = 0.0385O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.08%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.08%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.10%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.10%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.92%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.92%)-3.8%O0.040 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (-3.77%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (-3.77%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.05%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.05%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.04%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.79%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.79%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.56%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.56%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.76%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.76%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.19%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.19%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.16%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.16%)O0.038 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (+1.55%)O0.038 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (+1.55%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.49%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.49%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.26%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.26%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-1.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-1.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.41%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.41%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.59%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.59%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.15%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.15%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.14%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.14%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.75%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.75%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.49%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.49%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.31%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.31%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=26,532,642 · μ=1061305.7 · σ=779347.6 · CV=0.73RISING +97% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170680,3341,360,6682,041,0022,721,336μ = 1061306519,688 · 19.1% peak519,688 · 19.1% peak683,176 · 25.1% peak683,176 · 25.1% peak2,721,3362,721,336 · 100.0% peak2,721,336 · 100.0% peak1,272,855 · 46.8% peak1,272,855 · 46.8% peak746,494 · 27.4% peak746,494 · 27.4% peak317,312 · 11.7% peak317,312 · 11.7% peak482,740 · 17.7% peak482,740 · 17.7% peak480,737 · 17.7% peak480,737 · 17.7% peak459,299 · 16.9% peak459,299 · 16.9% peak467,118 · 17.2% peak467,118 · 17.2% peak429,259 · 15.8% peak429,259 · 15.8% peak362,119 · 13.3% peak362,119 · 13.3% peak398,868 · 14.7% peak398,868 · 14.7% peak518,328 · 19.0% peak518,328 · 19.0% peak1,327,734 · 48.8% peak1,327,734 · 48.8% peak412,830 · 15.2% peak412,830 · 15.2% peak2,346,565 · 86.2% peak2,346,565 · 86.2% peak1,849,021 · 67.9% peak1,849,021 · 67.9% peak1,050,182 · 38.6% peak1,050,182 · 38.6% peak911,673 · 33.5% peak911,673 · 33.5% peak2,379,952 · 87.5% peak2,379,952 · 87.5% peak1,364,911 · 50.2% peak1,364,911 · 50.2% peak2,633,212 · 96.8% peak2,633,212 · 96.8% peak1,724,210 · 63.4% peak1,724,210 · 63.4% peak673,023 · 24.7% peak673,023 · 24.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 26532642 · peak 2721336 · CV 0.73

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0111 · skew=-0.53 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.18 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 1-334.36bpbin -334.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -334.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-281.51bp-228.66bp-175.81bp 1-122.96bpbin -122.96bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -122.96bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 4-70.11bpbin -70.11bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -70.11bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 8-17.25bpbin -17.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -17.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 435.60bpbin 35.60bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin 35.60bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 388.45bpbin 88.45bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 88.45bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 1141.30bpbin 141.30bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 141.30bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1194.15bpbin 194.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 194.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1247.00bpbin 247.00bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 247.00bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.64 · kurt=2.83 · near 18 / mid 5 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0392
Mid price
$0.0392
24h change
+0.89%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0389

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0385$95% CI: [0.0383$, 0.0387$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.36%
med MEDIAN0.0384$Q₁ 0.0381$ · Q₃ 0.0388$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0021$ · IQR 0.0007$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0377$Q₁ 0.0381$med 0.0384$Q₃ 0.0388$max 0.0398$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.398approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.521mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.97
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.84
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.099933%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.084
σᵣ STD / h1.192808%σ²ᵣ = 1.423×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.94×
σ ANNUALISED111.64%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.193%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.84excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.35strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.68left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.83leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+875.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.99%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.992%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.011%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.310%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.22%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.992%VaR₉₉−3.011%ES₉₅−2.310%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK3.98$
−5.22% drawdown over 9h
3.77$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 2.33× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 3.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.50% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
58.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.875 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0395
Bollinger MA
$0.0385
Bollinger lower
$0.0375

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.358within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.103lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.963strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.715fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.963
H = 0.963STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.358k=2+0.103k=3-0.163k=4+0.193k=5-0.2100+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.02M
Open interest (USD)
$1.04M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.98x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.024× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.512× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.756×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.73% · worst -3.61% · typical |Δ| 0.76%MILD BULLISH +2.40%BEST+2.73%15hWORST-3.61%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.57% · Σ +4.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.58% · Σ -4.67%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.40%+3.86%-1.50%1.12% · 14h1.12% · 14h1.12%14h2.73% · 15h2.73% · 15h2.73%15h★ BEST-3.61% · 16h-3.61% · 16h-3.61%16h▼ WORST0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.09% · 19h0.09% · 19h0.09%19h-0.88% · 20h-0.88% · 20h-0.88%20h0.03% · 21h0.03% · 21h0.03%21h-0.65% · 22h-0.65% · 22h-0.65%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h-0.68% · 00h-0.68% · 00h-0.68%00h0.22% · 01h0.22% · 01h0.22%01h0.21% · 02h0.21% · 02h0.21%02h1.54% · 03h1.54% · 03h1.54%03h-0.40% · 04h-0.40% · 04h-0.40%04h2.03% · 05h2.03% · 05h2.03%05h-1.01% · 06h-1.01% · 06h-1.01%06h0.64% · 07h0.64% · 07h0.64%07h-0.57% · 08h-0.57% · 08h-0.57%08h0.03% · 09h0.03% · 09h0.03%09h-0.04% · 10h-0.04% · 10h-0.04%10h0.75% · 11h0.75% · 11h0.75%11h0.54% · 12h0.54% · 12h0.54%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+4.52%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 1BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.73% · worst -3.61% · typical |Δ| 0.765%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.26%FINAL+2.26%MAX DD-5.29%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.89%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0226 · peak 1.0389 · range [0.9839, 1.0389]1.03890.9839break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0389UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.29% · significant0%-5.29%▼ TROUGH -5.29%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.29%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.29%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0226 (2.26%) · max DD -5.29% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=0.83 · σ=33.98MIXED EDGELAST 22.06 (+0.62σ vs μ)55.2127.600.00-27.60-55.21μ = 0.832.092.09-13.14-13.14-47.48-47.48-55.21-55.21-36.09-36.09-51.05-51.05-44.92-44.92-15.75-15.7519.8319.8326.0226.0242.3542.3535.1035.1040.7440.7428.2928.2910.2810.2815.8115.81-4.64-4.6441.5341.5322.0622.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.060 · range [-55.21, 42.35] · μ 0.832 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=88.7794 · σ=47.2485 · range [38.6318, 195.2378] · R²=0.137▼ FALLING -77.47%σ EXTREME 53.22%LAST 43.9946195.2378156.0863116.934877.783338.6318μ = 88.7794max 195.2378min 38.6318dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.99% · range [38.63%, 195.24%] · μ 88.78% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.460 · σ=0.267MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.163 (+2.33σ vs μ)0.7750.3880.000-0.388-0.775μ = -0.460-0.319-0.319-0.540-0.540-0.138-0.138-0.476-0.476-0.591-0.591-0.775-0.775-0.706-0.706-0.652-0.652-0.111-0.111-0.335-0.335-0.382-0.382-0.715-0.715-0.775-0.775-0.671-0.671-0.677-0.677-0.517-0.517-0.454-0.454-0.072-0.0720.1630.163v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.163 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
16.5049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.1939
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2054
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1146
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2481
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.1527
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3091
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7288
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0838
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.474 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.73e-4 · top T=2.00h (42.4%) · top-3 cover 62.3%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.8e-46.6e-44.4e-42.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.99e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.99e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.58e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.58e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.97e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.97e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.63e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.63e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.56e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.56e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.16e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.16e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.80e-4 · 42.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.80e-4 · 42.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.076e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 7.20× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.65× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
7.20×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.65×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.60×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.80×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.66× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 16.34400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.66× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.007
annualized 16.34
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.15%
VaR 95%5%
0.11%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.90×0.95×0.99×1.04×1.08×1.13×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 13.17σ ann 198% · Sortino 17.06 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%410%819%1229%1638%2048%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)198.0%Ann. vol σ1316.8%Sharpe (ann)1706.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0360.0370.0380.0390.0400.041t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:57 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dd3daf205d2e21ef2bc42f7204620c401c97e3a0f12f13463cd77d8eb4561584 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.54K
bid $864 · ask $676
Depth within 5bp
$4.56K
bid $1.54K · ask $3.02K
Depth within 10bp
$8.81K
bid $3.19K · ask $5.62K
Depth within 50bp
$71.85K
bid $29.27K · ask $42.58K
Mid price
0.039217
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.183
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.009
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pyth/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0392190.54bp0.0392222FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0392477.87bp0.0392649FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03930923.70bp0.03937620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0392140.65bp0.0392012FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03916812.49bp0.03912910FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03910628.21bp0.03905620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-pyth/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$26.53M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pyth/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.376 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$17.90M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.11M
real volume
Net delta
$9.79M
buyers net
Imbalance
37.63%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pyth/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.039819→0.0383873.596%3
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z2.0h0.038426→0.0378511.496%3
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z0ms0.039130→0.0387361.007%1

/api/asset/hl-pyth/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
197.98%
σ per bar = 0.000863
Mean return (annualised)
2607.11%
μ per bar = 0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
13.17
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.99%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 899 bars

/api/asset/hl-pyth/risk · same metrics, JSON