HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #378
Mexico
48.6¢
51.4¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · pred-mexico-378 · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
141.17%
max drawdown
3.21%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.57%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.25%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.63
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.63
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1691
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-pred-mexico-378/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
48.6¢
No mid · live
51.4¢
2 bars · close 49.14¢ · 24h +2.12%
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Yes48.6%48.6¢2.06×▬ +0.00pp
No51.4%51.4¢1.95×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Σ 245 · peak 224
1.3s
48.642¢
51.358¢
100.00%
0.00pp
2 bars
49.14¢
+2.12%
§1 · 24h time-series
range [48.12¢, 49.14¢] · span 1.02pp · MA(5) latest n/a
2 bars · last close 49.14¢
Σ vol = 245 · peak 224 · mean 122.5
§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁
n=1 · positive 1 · negative 0
§3 · Sample moments (prices)
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=2PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.75)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.000approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.750platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.
§6 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§7 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
48.64¢
51.36¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (Yes)
Implied decimal odds
Yes2.06×(49¢)No1.95×(51¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.999 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.
§9 · Resolution criteria
This outcome resolves to Yes if Mexico wins the Game.
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1691 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§15 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§16 · Horizon returns
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.062pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.80ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2498 · n = 1691✓ n = 1691
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.062pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.30pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.80pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.2498
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
48.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§17 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1691
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.2pp
peak 50.3¢ → trough 48.6¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§18 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
48.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.056
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+106
$100 wins $106
FractionalUK
1.06 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$105.59
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§19 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.999 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.999 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.04 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.96 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§20 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- https://hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-15 08:30:46 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 1.3s
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-15 08:30:47 UTC
- History points
- 2 closes · 2 counter-side closes
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
b6c52c35b7afe03d4503ad8ad8d9e90bfdd437c00eb1d3d1a51a65a07c88f74d· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain92.0¢HL PREDBrazil88.0¢HL PREDNorway79.0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?88¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?95¢POLYMARKETWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,639HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,718.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$65.72
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 1,691 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26MRealized vol (annualised)
285.81%
σ per bar = 0.001246
Mean return (annualised)
-8571.39%
μ per bar = -0.000016
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.99
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.21%
peak 0.50 → trough 0.49 over 2 bars
/api/asset/hl-pred-mexico-378/risk · same metrics, JSON