HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #104

June Fed rate change

Primary · Change

1.0¢

Counter · No Change

99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-june-fed-rate-change-104 · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

25.54%

max drawdown

17.96%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

10.74%

RMS drawdown

pain index

6.47%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

17.96%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

64.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-june-fed-rate-change-104/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Change mid · live

1.0¢

No Change mid · live

99.0¢

Change · live 24h price

24 bars · close 1.28¢ · 24h +25.83%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.080 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured

Change

1.0%1.0¢100.81×▬ +0.00pp

No Change

99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 41977 · peak 28806

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2s

$Change mid

0.992¢

▼No Change mid

99.008¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

24 bars

Δ24h close

1.28¢

Δ24h change

+25.83%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Change (24 hourly observations)

range [0.70¢, 1.28¢] · span 0.58pp · MA(5) latest 1.24¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

24 bars · last close 1.28¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 41977 · peak 28806 · mean 1749.0

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=23 · positive 3 · negative 1

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.55)

μ MEAN1.00¢95% CI: [0.91¢, 1.09¢]

σ STD DEV0.23ppσ² = 0.051 · CV = 22.60%

med MEDIAN1.10¢Q₁ 0.70¢ · Q₃ 1.12¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.58pp · IQR 0.42pp (1.349σ→0.30pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-0.393approximately symmetric

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.550platykurtic · thin tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.44

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.57

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.005within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.006lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT1.342strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.913fails 5% test

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.342

H = 1.342STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.91)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.91)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#104

SLUGjune-fed-rate-change-104

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO CHANGE (99¢)

PRIMARY · CHANGE0.99¢implied prob 0.99% · decimal odds 100.81×

COUNTER · NO CHANGE99.01¢implied prob 99.01% · decimal odds 1.01×

0.99¢

99.01¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME41.98k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO CHANGE (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.980 · entropy 0.080 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Change vs No Change · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Change)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Change100.81×(1¢)No Change1.01×(99¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.080 bits (8% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

The market resolves to Change if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement for the meeting currently scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 differs from the upper bound of the target range set by the most recent prior FOMC statement. Otherwise, the market resolves to No Change. The market also resolves to No Change if the June 16-17, 2026 meeting is canceled, or if no FOMC statement containing a rate decision for that meeting is released by 23:59 ET on July 29, 2026. The target range stated in the FOMC statement for the June 16-17, 2026 meeting determines the result. If that statement is unavailable or does not clearly state the target range, the post-meeting target range upper bound shown on the Federal Reserve's open market operations page determines the result. Resolution uses the initially released decision; later revisions after resolution are not considered. Scheduled meeting dates and source references are provided for convenience and are not binding terms of resolution.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

3 up bars · 1 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.42% · typical |Δ| 0.048%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 1.0026 (0.26%) · max DD -0.42% · time-under-water 12/24 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 41.857 · range [-41.86, 61.49] · μ 9.846 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 7.58% · range [0.00%, 17.62%] · μ 10.45% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest -0.300 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

1 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·4 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

68.6378

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

1.1047

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9520

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-1.0820

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.7215

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.2204

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.3212

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

0.1424

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.8867

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 23.00h (freq 0.043) · concentrates 18.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.885e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0098 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.007pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.04pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.10pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.0098

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

1.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.01pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.02pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

18.0pp

peak 1.2¢ → trough 1.0¢

Median step

0.01pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

1.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

100.806

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+9981

$100 wins $9981

FractionalUK

99.81 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$9980.65

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.080 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.080 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

6.66 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:03:37 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2s
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 16:03:38 UTC
History points: 24 closes · 24 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 5a13070374dc91f94fd9521c9b7db3edb8a232d769982f1787d9e3b2226b624a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,031 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.2 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.33

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

1612.65%

σ per bar = 0.007033

Mean return (annualised)

8901.37%

μ per bar = 0.000017

Sharpe (rf=0)

5.52

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

17.96%

peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 125 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-june-fed-rate-change-104/risk · same metrics, JSON