As of the latest market snapshot, the implied probability of "Yes" is 37.1%. This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador wins the Game.

HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #304

Ecuador

Primary · Yes

37.1¢

Counter · No

62.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-ecuador-304 · fresh · feed 2s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

16.78%

max drawdown

1.34%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.73%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.60%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.95%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.32

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.32

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-ecuador-304/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

37.1¢

No mid · live

62.9¢

Yes · live 24h price

25 bars · close 37.34¢ · 24h -9.01%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.951 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

Yes

37.1%37.1¢2.70×▬ +0.00pp

62.9%62.9¢1.59×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 8616 · peak 2000

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

2.0s

▲Yes mid

37.051¢

▼No mid

62.948¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

25 bars

Δ24h close

37.34¢

Δ24h change

-9.01%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (25 hourly observations)

range [36.86¢, 41.04¢] · span 4.18pp · MA(5) latest 37.45¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

25 bars · last close 37.34¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 8616 · peak 2000 · mean 344.6

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=24 · positive 5 · negative 9

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)

μ MEAN38.74¢95% CI: [38.22¢, 39.25¢]

σ STD DEV1.31ppσ² = 1.722 · CV = 3.39%

med MEDIAN38.78¢Q₁ 37.84¢ · Q₃ 38.78¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.18pp · IQR 0.94pp (1.349σ→1.77pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.613right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.801mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.88

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.19

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejected

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.366within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.165lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.779strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.470significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.779

H = 0.779STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.47)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#304

SLUGecuador-304

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (63¢)

PRIMARY · YES37.05¢implied prob 37.05% · decimal odds 2.70×

COUNTER · NO62.95¢implied prob 62.95% · decimal odds 1.59×

37.05¢

62.95¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYMODEST

24H VOLUME8.62k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (63¢)|primary − counter| = 0.259 · entropy 0.951 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHMODEST100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes2.70×(37¢)No1.59×(63¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.951 bits (95% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador wins the Game.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

5 up bars · 9 down · best 0.98% · worst -1.67% · typical |Δ| 0.333%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9633 (-3.67%) · max DD -4.13% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -9.843 · range [-54.15, 3.71] · μ -32.249 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-1.0713

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.2840

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 34.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.509e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.016pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2332 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000

μ per bar

-0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.016pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.08pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.20pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.2332

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

37.1¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000

VaR 95%

0.03pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.03pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

3.5pp

peak 38.3¢ → trough 36.9¢

Median step

0.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

37.1%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.699

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+170

$100 wins $170

FractionalUK

1.70 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$169.89

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.951 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.951 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.43 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.67 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 14:49:18 UTC
Snapshot age: 2.0s
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 14:49:20 UTC
History points: 25 closes · 25 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: de404ee16067e5cd516a9aa0d79626e9e4f1686d44504fc5e85db0eda23342eb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,856 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.1 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.93

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M

Realized vol (annualised)

94.97%

σ per bar = 0.000414

Mean return (annualised)

-910.11%

μ per bar = -0.000002

Sharpe (rf=0)

-9.58

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

3.51%

peak 0.38 → trough 0.37 over 2987 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-ecuador-304/risk · same metrics, JSON