HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #343
Draw
10.6¢
89.4¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · pred-draw-343 · fresh · feed 3s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3306.80%
max drawdown
87.82%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
73.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
70.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
81.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.27
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.27
upside/downside
roll spread
71.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
744
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-pred-draw-343/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
10.6¢
No mid · live
89.4¢
no history
1 bars · close 12.08¢ · 24h +0.00%
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.486 / 1.00 bits (49%) · informative — one side favoured
Yes10.6%10.6¢9.48×▬ +0.00pp
No89.4%89.4¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Σ 188 · peak 188
3.1s
10.553¢
89.448¢
100.00%
0.00pp
1 bars
12.08¢
+0.00%
§1 · 24h time-series
no series
range [12.08¢, 12.08¢] · span 0.00pp · MA(5) latest n/a
1 bars · last close 12.08¢
Σ vol = 188 · peak 188 · mean 188.0
§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁
insufficient data — no histogram bins
n=0 · positive 0 · negative 0
§3 · Sample moments (prices)
§6 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§7 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
10.55¢
89.45¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (Yes)
Implied decimal odds
Yes9.48×(11¢)No1.12×(89¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.486 bits (49% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.
§9 · Resolution criteria
This outcome resolves to Yes if the Game ends in a draw, or if the Game is canceled or not completed by July 19, 2026 at 23:59 UTC without FIFA officially declaring a winner.
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (744 bars · effective 5259600 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§15 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§16 · Horizon returns
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 1.442pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 18.70ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0944 · n = 744✓ n = 744
μ per bar
-0.053pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.442pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
7.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
18.70pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0944
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
10.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§17 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 2.43pp · ES₉₅ 3.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.053pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.14✓ n = 744
VaR 95%
2.43pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
87.8pp
peak 50.0¢ → trough 6.1¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§18 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
10.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
9.476
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+848
$100 wins $848
FractionalUK
8.48 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$847.64
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§19 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.486 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.486 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.24 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.16 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§20 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- https://hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-15 06:55:10 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 3.1s
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-15 06:55:13 UTC
- History points
- 1 closes · 1 counter-side closes
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
554be4b85f603d450eb6d66dd90b741893ffbbd8845fe7c3965d011ab61afd68· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDBrazil93.4¢HL PREDSpain91.9¢HL PREDNorway78.9¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?94¢POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,838HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,720.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$65.11
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 744 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26MRealized vol (annualised)
15925.38%
σ per bar = 0.069441
Mean return (annualised)
-1101231.55%
μ per bar = -0.002094
Sharpe (rf=0)
-69.15
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
87.82%
peak 0.50 → trough 0.06 over 435 bars
/api/asset/hl-pred-draw-343/risk · same metrics, JSON