HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PNUT

PNUT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pnut · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.28%
realized vol (ann.)
103.72%
max drawdown
1.50%
sharpe
-1.73
ulcer index
0.87%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.75%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-205.83
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-126.22
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.28%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-0.00%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -1.28%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pnut/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.044
24h Δ · live
-1.28%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
PNUT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0443 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0438, 0.0450] · R²=0.452▼ FALLING -2.11%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.04400.04500.04470.04440.04410.0438μ = 0.0443max 0.0450min 0.0438dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 0.0%Short fee 100.0%SHORT FEE100.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
Long fee
0.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
100.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000000% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=15,610,477 · μ=624419.1 · σ=422836.7 · CV=0.68STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120397,326794,6521,191,9771,589,303μ = 6244191,589,30350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1589303 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
$mark $
$0.044
$mid $
$0.044
◉prev-day close
$0.0446
Δ24h Δ %
-1.279%
$24h vol $
$679.09k
◐open interest $
$257.83k
%funding (1h)
-0.000000%
%funding (yr)
-0.00%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0443 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0438, 0.0450] · R²=0.452▼ FALLING -2.11%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.04400.04500.04470.04440.04410.0438μ = 0.0443max 0.0450min 0.0438dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0440 · 24h -1.28% · range $[0.0438, 0.0450]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0436, 0.0456] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -0.63%CLOSE 0.0440 vs OPEN 0.0443 (-0.63%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.04400.04560.04510.04460.04410.0436μ close = 0.0443O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+1.51%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+1.51%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-1.60%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-1.60%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.52%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.52%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.05%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.05%)O0.044 H0.046 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.52%)O0.044 H0.046 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.52%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.18%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.18%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.27%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.27%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.36%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.36%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.97%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.97%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (-0.27%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (-0.27%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (-0.20%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (-0.20%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.20%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.20%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.36%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.36%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.41%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.045 (+0.41%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.65%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.65%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.75%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.75%)-1.6%O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-1.64%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-1.64%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.37%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.37%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.50%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.50%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.52%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.52%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.11%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.11%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.32%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.32%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.18%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.18%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.59%)O0.044 H0.045 L0.044 C0.044 (+0.59%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.27%)O0.044 H0.044 L0.044 C0.044 (-0.27%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=15,610,477 · μ=624419.1 · σ=422836.7 · CV=0.68STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120397,326794,6521,191,9771,589,303μ = 6244191,160,816.2 · 73.0% peak1,160,816.2 · 73.0% peak208,684.1 · 13.1% peak208,684.1 · 13.1% peak324,902.5 · 20.4% peak324,902.5 · 20.4% peak224,328.6 · 14.1% peak224,328.6 · 14.1% peak1,493,862.4 · 94.0% peak1,493,862.4 · 94.0% peak638,632.1 · 40.2% peak638,632.1 · 40.2% peak808,389.7 · 50.9% peak808,389.7 · 50.9% peak614,821.4 · 38.7% peak614,821.4 · 38.7% peak217,436.6 · 13.7% peak217,436.6 · 13.7% peak410,971.6 · 25.9% peak410,971.6 · 25.9% peak1,408,795.3 · 88.6% peak1,408,795.3 · 88.6% peak495,680.6 · 31.2% peak495,680.6 · 31.2% peak755,187.7 · 47.5% peak755,187.7 · 47.5% peak445,509.7 · 28.0% peak445,509.7 · 28.0% peak310,987 · 19.6% peak310,987 · 19.6% peak832,973.3 · 52.4% peak832,973.3 · 52.4% peak223,663.9 · 14.1% peak223,663.9 · 14.1% peak312,193.7 · 19.6% peak312,193.7 · 19.6% peak815,919.7 · 51.3% peak815,919.7 · 51.3% peak210,492.5 · 13.2% peak210,492.5 · 13.2% peak1,589,3031,589,303 · 100.0% peak1,589,303 · 100.0% peak732,754 · 46.1% peak732,754 · 46.1% peak764,622 · 48.1% peak764,622 · 48.1% peak553,647.5 · 34.8% peak553,647.5 · 34.8% peak55,902.2 · 3.5% peak55,902.2 · 3.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 15610477 · peak 1589303 · CV 0.68

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0059 · skew=-0.60 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.31 (mesokurtic)75420 2-147.64bpbin -147.64bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -147.64bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-125.61bp-103.57bp 1-81.53bpbin -81.53bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -81.53bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-59.50bp 5-37.46bpbin -37.46bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -37.46bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 7-15.43bpbin -15.43bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -15.43bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 16.61bpbin 6.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 6.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 128.65bpbin 28.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 28.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 550.68bpbin 50.68bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 50.68bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 172.72bpbin 72.72bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 72.72bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 194.76bpbin 94.76bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 94.76bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.56 · kurt=0.53 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.044
Mid price
$0.044
24h change
-1.28%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0446

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0443$95% CI: [0.0442$, 0.0444$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.62%
med MEDIAN0.0442$Q₁ 0.0441$ · Q₃ 0.0445$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0438$Q₁ 0.0441$med 0.0442$Q₃ 0.0445$max 0.0450$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.336approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.266mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.34
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.088965%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.146
σᵣ STD / h0.610193%σ²ᵣ = 0.372×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.86×
σ ANNUALISED57.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.610%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.34downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.60left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.95mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.98
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-779.33%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.29%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.288%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.541%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.487%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.67%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.288%VaR₉₉−1.541%ES₉₅−1.487%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK4.50$
−2.67% drawdown over 16h
4.38$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.294 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0448
Bollinger MA
$0.0442
Bollinger lower
$0.0437

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.321within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.015lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.683persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.358significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.683
H = 0.683PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.321k=2-0.015k=3-0.156k=4-0.042k=5+0.3300+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.69very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$679.09k
Open interest (USD)
$257.83k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.63x
1h funding
-0.000000%
Funding (annualised)
-0.00%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.06% · worst -1.59% · typical |Δ| 0.47%BEARISH SESSION -2.14%BEST+1.06%20hWORST-1.59%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.47%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.72%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.77%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.36%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.14%+0.00%-2.70%-1.39% · 13h-1.39% · 13h-1.39%13h-0.34% · 14h-0.34% · 14h-0.34%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.18% · 17h0.18% · 17h0.18%17h-0.34% · 18h-0.34% · 18h-0.34%18h-0.38% · 19h-0.38% · 19h-0.38%19h1.06% · 20h1.06% · 20h1.06%20h★ BEST-0.25% · 21h-0.25% · 21h-0.25%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h-0.25% · 00h-0.25% · 00h-0.25%00h0.54% · 01h0.54% · 01h0.54%01h-0.72% · 02h-0.72% · 02h-0.72%02h0.63% · 03h0.63% · 03h0.63%03h-1.59% · 04h-1.59% · 04h-1.59%04h▼ WORST0.50% · 05h0.50% · 05h0.50%05h0.57% · 06h0.57% · 06h0.57%06h-0.41% · 07h-0.41% · 07h-0.41%07h-0.11% · 08h-0.11% · 08h-0.11%08h-0.18% · 09h-0.18% · 09h-0.18%09h-0.11% · 10h-0.11% · 10h-0.11%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h-0.18% · 12h-0.18% · 12h-0.18%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.36%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.06% · worst -1.59% · typical |Δ| 0.466%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.16%)FINAL-2.16%MAX DD-2.71%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9784 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9729, 1.0000]1.00000.9729break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.71% · moderate0%-2.71%▼ TROUGH -2.71%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.71%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.71%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9784 (-2.16%) · max DD -2.71% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-7.19 · σ=19.66UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -25.45 (-0.93σ vs μ)40.6620.330.00-20.33-40.66μ = -7.19-32.06-32.06-14.80-14.8030.3930.3920.9820.985.825.82-8.85-8.85-6.43-6.4319.4519.45-40.66-40.66-5.99-5.99-32.51-32.51-15.57-15.57-1.14-1.14-17.71-17.71-7.46-7.46-24.39-24.399.879.879.839.83-25.45-25.45v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -25.450 · range [-40.66, 30.39] · μ -7.194 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=56.8276 · σ=18.5515 · range [28.5992, 86.8063] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -53.25%σ EXTREME 32.65%LAST 28.599286.806372.254557.702843.151028.5992μ = 56.8276max 86.8063min 28.5992dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.60% · range [28.60%, 86.81%] · μ 56.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.296 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.127 (+0.56σ vs μ)0.7580.3790.000-0.379-0.758μ = -0.2960.2540.2540.2880.288-0.169-0.169-0.364-0.364-0.398-0.398-0.312-0.312-0.354-0.354-0.115-0.115-0.528-0.528-0.650-0.650-0.564-0.564-0.758-0.758-0.552-0.552-0.552-0.552-0.485-0.485-0.198-0.1980.1840.184-0.214-0.214-0.127-0.127v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.127 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.3509
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.1584
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7012
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0134
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9103
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.419 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.59e-5 · top T=4.80h (32.5%) · top-3 cover 65.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.0e-53.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.37e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.37e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.61e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.61e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-4 · 32.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-4 · 32.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.52e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.52e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.14e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.14e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.68e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.68e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.42e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.42e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 32.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.304e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.84× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.84×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -10.39400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -10.39
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -999% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.92σ ann 101% · Sortino -8.08 · n 4999
-1199%-935%-671%-407%-143%121%-999.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)100.7%Ann. vol σ-991.7%Sharpe (ann)-808.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0420.0430.0440.0450.0460.047t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c982723bbe2a51e1844beadf3cb05ce9c5a2aa372a627078fbdd8a0c4bf87ec6 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$5.19K
bid $2.00K · ask $3.19K
Depth within 50bp
$24.92K
bid $11.26K · ask $13.66K
Mid price
0.044015
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.313
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.156
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pnut/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0440405.68bp0.0440401FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04409016.96bp0.04419010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.04439586.38bp0.04474020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0439905.68bp0.0439901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04392420.62bp0.04383012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04382443.34bp0.04348020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.000e-10
-0.00000% / hr
Annualised APR
-0.000%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
2283.11y
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
2283.11y
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE0.000%2283.11y22831.05y
SHORTPAY-0.000%2283.11y22831.05y

/api/asset/hl-pnut/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$15.61M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pnut/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.234 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.53M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.92M
real volume
Net delta
$3.38M
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.40%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pnut/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.71% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 13:00:00Z2.0h0.044970→0.0442001.712%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.044510→0.0437701.663%3
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.044670→0.0442700.895%2

/api/asset/hl-pnut/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
100.74%
σ per bar = 0.000439
Mean return (annualised)
-998.98%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.24%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 1066 bars

/api/asset/hl-pnut/risk · same metrics, JSON