HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PEOPLE

PEOPLE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-people · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.95%
realized vol (ann.)
37.24%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
-28.50
ulcer index
0.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1827.40
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1017.94
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.95%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-people/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.005
24h Δ · live
-0.95%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
PEOPLE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0054, 0.0055] · R²=0.622▼ FALLING -0.91%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.00540.00550.00550.00550.00550.0054μ = 0.0055max 0.0055min 0.0054dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=15,869,498 · μ=634779.9 · σ=293499.1 · CV=0.46STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120372,870745,7411,118,6111,491,481μ = 6347801,491,48150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1491481 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0054
$mid $
$0.0054
◉prev-day close
$0.0055
Δ24h Δ %
-0.947%
$24h vol $
$85.94k
◐open interest $
$103.82k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0054, 0.0055] · R²=0.622▼ FALLING -0.91%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.00540.00550.00550.00550.00550.0054μ = 0.0055max 0.0055min 0.0054dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0054 · 24h -0.95% · range $[0.0054, 0.0055]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0054, 0.0055] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -0.97%CLOSE 0.0054 vs OPEN 0.0055 (-0.97%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00540.00550.00550.00550.00550.0054μ close = 0.0055O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.05%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.05%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.07%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.07%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.27%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.27%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.40%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.40%)-0.6%O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.63%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.63%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.45%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.15%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.15%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.29%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.29%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.51%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.51%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.27%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.27%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.11%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.11%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.22%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.22%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.18%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.20%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.20%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.47%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.07%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.07%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.02%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=15,869,498 · μ=634779.9 · σ=293499.1 · CV=0.46STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120372,870745,7411,118,6111,491,481μ = 634780654,486 · 43.9% peak654,486 · 43.9% peak535,693 · 35.9% peak535,693 · 35.9% peak400,626 · 26.9% peak400,626 · 26.9% peak705,277 · 47.3% peak705,277 · 47.3% peak1,491,4811,491,481 · 100.0% peak1,491,481 · 100.0% peak727,883 · 48.8% peak727,883 · 48.8% peak776,668 · 52.1% peak776,668 · 52.1% peak545,751 · 36.6% peak545,751 · 36.6% peak487,425 · 32.7% peak487,425 · 32.7% peak870,769 · 58.4% peak870,769 · 58.4% peak455,788 · 30.6% peak455,788 · 30.6% peak369,961 · 24.8% peak369,961 · 24.8% peak1,325,633 · 88.9% peak1,325,633 · 88.9% peak559,565 · 37.5% peak559,565 · 37.5% peak495,171 · 33.2% peak495,171 · 33.2% peak626,330 · 42.0% peak626,330 · 42.0% peak653,034 · 43.8% peak653,034 · 43.8% peak847,718 · 56.8% peak847,718 · 56.8% peak380,678 · 25.5% peak380,678 · 25.5% peak352,871 · 23.7% peak352,871 · 23.7% peak699,851 · 46.9% peak699,851 · 46.9% peak878,622 · 58.9% peak878,622 · 58.9% peak359,155 · 24.1% peak359,155 · 24.1% peak466,794 · 31.3% peak466,794 · 31.3% peak202,268 · 13.6% peak202,268 · 13.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 15869498 · peak 1491481 · CV 0.46

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0029 · skew=0.15 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.75 (mesokurtic)54310 2-53.14bpbin -53.14bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -53.14bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-43.30bpbin -43.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -43.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-33.45bpbin -33.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -33.45bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-23.61bpbin -23.61bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -23.61bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-13.76bpbin -13.76bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -13.76bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-3.92bpbin -3.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -3.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 35.93bpbin 5.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 5.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 115.77bpbin 15.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 15.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 325.61bpbin 25.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 25.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 135.46bpbin 35.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 35.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 145.30bpbin 45.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 45.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 155.15bpbin 55.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 55.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.18 · kurt=-0.69 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0054
Mid price
$0.0054
24h change
-0.95%
Mark–mid spread
1.84 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0055

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0055$95% CI: [0.0055$, 0.0055$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN0.0055$Q₁ 0.0055$ · Q₃ 0.0055$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0054$Q₁ 0.0055$med 0.0055$Q₃ 0.0055$max 0.0055$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.247approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.835mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.36
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.038136%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.121
σᵣ STD / h0.314127%σ²ᵣ = 0.099×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.24×
σ ANNUALISED29.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.314%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.36negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.21downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.56mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-334.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.53%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.525%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.572%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.562%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.70%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.525%VaR₉₉−0.572%ES₉₅−0.562%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK0.55$
−1.70% drawdown over 15h
0.54$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.73% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.086 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0055
Bollinger MA
$0.0055
Bollinger lower
$0.0054

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.262within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.239lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.547random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.146significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.547
H = 0.547RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.262k=2-0.239k=3-0.083k=4+0.394k=5-0.2790+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.15)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.36high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.15)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$85.94k
Open interest (USD)
$103.82k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.83x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -0.58% · typical |Δ| 0.26%MILD BEARISH -0.92%BEST+0.60%01hWORST-0.58%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.92%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.79%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.92%+0.80%-0.92%0.07% · 13h0.07% · 13h0.07%13h0.29% · 14h0.29% · 14h0.29%14h0.34% · 15h0.34% · 15h0.34%15h-0.58% · 16h-0.58% · 16h-0.58%16h▼ WORST0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.27% · 18h0.27% · 18h0.27%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h-0.16% · 20h-0.16% · 20h-0.16%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h-0.54% · 22h-0.54% · 22h-0.54%22h-0.20% · 23h-0.20% · 23h-0.20%23h-0.26% · 00h-0.26% · 00h-0.26%00h0.60% · 01h0.60% · 01h0.60%01h★ BEST-0.35% · 02h-0.35% · 02h-0.35%02h-0.15% · 03h-0.15% · 03h-0.15%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h-0.18% · 06h-0.18% · 06h-0.18%06h-0.38% · 07h-0.38% · 07h-0.38%07h0.22% · 08h0.22% · 08h0.22%08h0.20% · 09h0.20% · 09h0.20%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11h-0.02% · 12h-0.02% · 12h-0.02%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.52%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 0.60% · worst -0.58% · typical |Δ| 0.259%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.92%)FINAL-0.92%MAX DD-1.71%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.80%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9908 · peak 1.0080 · range [0.9908, 1.0080]1.00800.9908break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0080UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.71% · moderate0%-1.71%▼ TROUGH -1.71%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.71%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.58%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.71%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9908 (-0.92%) · max DD -1.71% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-17.40 · σ=27.65UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -31.82 (-0.52σ vs μ)104.0752.030.00-52.03-104.07μ = -17.4018.1218.1218.1018.10-2.54-2.543.823.825.565.56-3.08-3.08-26.78-26.78-2.50-2.50-8.43-8.43-35.36-35.36-23.16-23.16-9.90-9.90-6.77-6.77-104.07-104.07-40.92-40.92-14.01-14.01-25.68-25.68-41.16-41.16-31.82-31.82v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -31.822 · range [-104.07, 18.12] · μ -17.398 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=30.9661 · σ=6.8795 · range [15.8758, 44.0922] · R²=0.301▼ FALLING -19.11%σ EXTREME 22.22%LAST 26.080144.092237.038129.984022.929915.8758μ = 30.9661max 44.0922min 15.8758dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.08% · range [15.88%, 44.09%] · μ 30.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.279 · σ=0.160MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.199 (+0.50σ vs μ)0.5520.2760.000-0.276-0.552μ = -0.279-0.146-0.146-0.146-0.146-0.346-0.346-0.110-0.110-0.552-0.552-0.340-0.340-0.408-0.408-0.337-0.337-0.438-0.438-0.263-0.263-0.432-0.432-0.513-0.513-0.316-0.3160.0110.011-0.392-0.392-0.042-0.042-0.214-0.214-0.122-0.122-0.199-0.199v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.199 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4578
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7954
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.0946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0490
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7077
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7509
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0094
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6410
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1008
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.501 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.09e-5 · top T=2.00h (26.2%) · top-3 cover 58.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-52.6e-51.7e-58.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.19e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.19e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.57e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.57e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.25e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.25e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.06e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.06e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.46e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.46e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.95e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.95e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.14e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.14e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.90e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.90e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.43e-5 · 26.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.43e-5 · 26.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.306e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-58.08×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -25.61400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -25.61
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -886% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.68σ ann 39% · Sortino -11.71 · n 4999
-2722%-2168%-1615%-1061%-507%47%-886.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)39.1%Ann. vol σ-2268.5%Sharpe (ann)-1171.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0050.0050.0050.0060.0060.006t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:30 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fffc28d62d3cb473d5e64a8d0d72da6d0712a001d3653e846e2ad846804819a9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.89K
bid $508 · ask $2.39K
Depth within 10bp
$7.51K
bid $2.67K · ask $4.84K
Depth within 50bp
$35.41K
bid $18.31K · ask $17.10K
Mid price
0.005437
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.036
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.071
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0054382.16bp0.0054392FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00544412.36bp0.0054539FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.005492100.92bp0.00560020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0054353.65bp0.0054342FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00542915.61bp0.0054219FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.005382101.93bp0.00528920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-people/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$15.87M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.103 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.82M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.39M
real volume
Net delta
$1.57M
sellers net
Imbalance
-10.34%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
10.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-people/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 0.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.005532→0.0054770.994%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.005510→0.0054740.653%1
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z1.0h0.005471→0.0054380.603%2

/api/asset/hl-people/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.06%
σ per bar = 0.000170
Mean return (annualised)
-885.96%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.47%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 612 bars

/api/asset/hl-people/risk · same metrics, JSON