HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PAXG

PAXG-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-paxg · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.34%
realized vol (ann.)
7.17%
max drawdown
0.21%
sharpe
-33.82
ulcer index
0.13%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1865.95
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1166.96
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.34%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-paxg/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4226.3
24h Δ · live
0.34%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
PAXG · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=4222.0720 · σ=4.6985 · range [4214.0000, 4230.3000] · R²=0.775▲ RISING +0.26%σ LOW 0.11%LAST 4226.60004230.30004226.22504222.15004218.07504214.0000μ = 4222.0720max 4230.3000min 4214.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4226.60
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=161 · μ=6.5 · σ=10.6 · CV=1.64BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6013263952μ = 651.98650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 52 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.2s
$mark $
$4,226.3
$mid $
$4,226.55
◉prev-day close
$4,212
Δ24h Δ %
+0.340%
$24h vol $
$680.38k
◐open interest $
$18.38M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=4222.0720 · σ=4.6985 · range [4214.0000, 4230.3000] · R²=0.775▲ RISING +0.26%σ LOW 0.11%LAST 4226.60004230.30004226.22504222.15004218.07504214.0000μ = 4222.0720max 4230.3000min 4214.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4226.3000 · 24h 0.34% · range $[4214.0000, 4230.3000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [4200.7000, 4232.1000] · σ=4.6985 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=57%BULLISH +0.36%CLOSE 4226.6000 vs OPEN 4211.3000 (+0.36%)&#9650; CLOSE 4226.60004232.10004224.25004216.40004208.55004200.7000μ close = 4222.0720O4211.300 H4215.700 L4211.200 C4215.700 (+0.10%)O4211.300 H4215.700 L4211.200 C4215.700 (+0.10%)O4215.600 H4217.500 L4214.600 C4216.300 (+0.02%)O4215.600 H4217.500 L4214.600 C4216.300 (+0.02%)O4216.400 H4216.400 L4211.700 C4214.000 (-0.06%)O4216.400 H4216.400 L4211.700 C4214.000 (-0.06%)O4214.000 H4219.300 L4213.900 C4217.300 (+0.08%)O4214.000 H4219.300 L4213.900 C4217.300 (+0.08%)O4217.700 H4220.400 L4200.700 C4217.200 (-0.01%)O4217.700 H4220.400 L4200.700 C4217.200 (-0.01%)O4217.200 H4217.700 L4215.900 C4215.900 (-0.03%)O4217.200 H4217.700 L4215.900 C4215.900 (-0.03%)O4215.900 H4216.500 L4214.000 C4215.900 (+0.00%)O4215.900 H4216.500 L4214.000 C4215.900 (+0.00%)O4216.000 H4218.100 L4215.500 C4218.100 (+0.05%)O4216.000 H4218.100 L4215.500 C4218.100 (+0.05%)O4218.100 H4218.800 L4217.400 C4218.300 (+0.00%)O4218.100 H4218.800 L4217.400 C4218.300 (+0.00%)0.2%O4218.200 H4226.600 L4218.200 C4225.700 (+0.18%)O4218.200 H4226.600 L4218.200 C4225.700 (+0.18%)O4226.000 H4226.600 L4224.100 C4224.300 (-0.04%)O4226.000 H4226.600 L4224.100 C4224.300 (-0.04%)O4224.400 H4224.400 L4218.900 C4221.100 (-0.08%)O4224.400 H4224.400 L4218.900 C4221.100 (-0.08%)O4221.700 H4225.700 L4219.700 C4224.900 (+0.08%)O4221.700 H4225.700 L4219.700 C4224.900 (+0.08%)O4224.900 H4225.700 L4222.500 C4222.500 (-0.06%)O4224.900 H4225.700 L4222.500 C4222.500 (-0.06%)O4222.400 H4224.200 L4220.900 C4224.000 (+0.04%)O4222.400 H4224.200 L4220.900 C4224.000 (+0.04%)O4224.000 H4224.000 L4220.600 C4222.200 (-0.04%)O4224.000 H4224.000 L4220.600 C4222.200 (-0.04%)O4222.200 H4224.500 L4222.100 C4224.500 (+0.05%)O4222.200 H4224.500 L4222.100 C4224.500 (+0.05%)O4224.400 H4226.300 L4224.400 C4225.600 (+0.03%)O4224.400 H4226.300 L4224.400 C4225.600 (+0.03%)O4225.500 H4227.400 L4225.300 C4226.400 (+0.02%)O4225.500 H4227.400 L4225.300 C4226.400 (+0.02%)O4226.500 H4227.200 L4225.300 C4227.200 (+0.02%)O4226.500 H4227.200 L4225.300 C4227.200 (+0.02%)O4227.100 H4231.500 L4227.100 C4230.300 (+0.08%)O4227.100 H4231.500 L4227.100 C4230.300 (+0.08%)O4230.200 H4232.100 L4228.300 C4228.400 (-0.04%)O4230.200 H4232.100 L4228.300 C4228.400 (-0.04%)O4228.400 H4230.200 L4223.400 C4223.800 (-0.11%)O4228.400 H4230.200 L4223.400 C4223.800 (-0.11%)O4223.900 H4225.600 L4222.800 C4225.600 (+0.04%)O4223.900 H4225.600 L4222.800 C4225.600 (+0.04%)O4225.500 H4226.600 L4225.200 C4226.600 (+0.03%)O4225.500 H4226.600 L4225.200 C4226.600 (+0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=161 · μ=6.5 · σ=10.6 · CV=1.64BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6013263952μ = 61.447 · 2.8% peak1.447 · 2.8% peak51.98651.986 · 100.0% peak51.986 · 100.0% peak5.673 · 10.9% peak5.673 · 10.9% peak4.44 · 8.5% peak4.44 · 8.5% peak12.83 · 24.7% peak12.83 · 24.7% peak8.035 · 15.5% peak8.035 · 15.5% peak0.82 · 1.6% peak0.82 · 1.6% peak1.068 · 2.1% peak1.068 · 2.1% peak1.039 · 2.0% peak1.039 · 2.0% peak13.133 · 25.3% peak13.133 · 25.3% peak1.819 · 3.5% peak1.819 · 3.5% peak17.867 · 34.4% peak17.867 · 34.4% peak3.352 · 6.4% peak3.352 · 6.4% peak1.489 · 2.9% peak1.489 · 2.9% peak1.235 · 2.4% peak1.235 · 2.4% peak0.875 · 1.7% peak0.875 · 1.7% peak1.275 · 2.5% peak1.275 · 2.5% peak0.698 · 1.3% peak0.698 · 1.3% peak0.905 · 1.7% peak0.905 · 1.7% peak1.922 · 3.7% peak1.922 · 3.7% peak10.077 · 19.4% peak10.077 · 19.4% peak4.812 · 9.3% peak4.812 · 9.3% peak9.928 · 19.1% peak9.928 · 19.1% peak1.234 · 2.4% peak1.234 · 2.4% peak3.403 · 6.5% peak3.403 · 6.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 161 · peak 52 · CV 1.64

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0006 · skew=0.42 (symmetric) · kurt=0.35 (mesokurtic)54310 1-9.70bpbin -9.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -9.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-7.33bpbin -7.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -7.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-4.97bpbin -4.97bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -4.97bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-2.60bpbin -2.60bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -2.60bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-0.23bpbin -0.23bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -0.23bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 52.14bpbin 2.14bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 2.14bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 44.51bpbin 4.51bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 4.51bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 26.87bpbin 6.87bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 6.87bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 19.24bpbin 9.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 9.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak11.61bp13.98bp 116.34bpbin 16.34bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 16.34bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.43 · kurt=0.52 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4,226.3
Mid price
$4,226.55
24h change
+0.34%
Mark–mid spread
0.59 bps
Prev-day close
$4,212

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.38)
μ MEAN4222.0720$95% CI: [4220.2302$, 4223.9138$]
σ STD DEV4.6985$σ² = 22.075 · CV = 0.11%
med MEDIAN4223.8000$Q₁ 4217.3000$ · Q₃ 4225.6000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 16.3000$ · IQR 8.3000$ (1.349σ→6.3382$)
min 4214.0000$Q₁ 4217.3000$med 4223.8000$Q₃ 4225.6000$max 4230.3000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.183approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.381platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.47
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=16.26
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.010759%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.174
σᵣ STD / h0.061915%σ²ᵣ = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.75×
σ ANNUALISED5.79%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.062%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)16.26excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)17.53strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.46approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.95mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.08
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+94.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKLOW · 95% VaR 0.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.073%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.101%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.092%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.15%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.073%VaR₉₉−0.101%ES₉₅−0.092%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK423030.00$
−0.15% drawdown over 2h
422380.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.691 · within band
Bollinger upper
$4231.5075
Bollinger MA
$4223.5650
Bollinger lower
$4215.6225

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.295within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.141lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.656persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.895significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.656
H = 0.656PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.295k=2-0.141k=3+0.072k=4-0.118k=5-0.0300+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.61very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$680.38k
Open interest (USD)
$18.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.04x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.18% · worst -0.11% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BULLISH +0.26%BEST+0.18%21hWORST-0.11%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.26%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.14%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.09%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.26%+0.35%-0.04%0.01% · 13h0.01% · 13h0.01%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.08% · 15h0.08% · 15h0.08%15h-0.00% · 16h-0.00% · 16h-0.00%16h-0.03% · 17h-0.03% · 17h-0.03%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h0.00%20h0.18% · 21h0.18% · 21h0.18%21h★ BEST-0.03% · 22h-0.03% · 22h-0.03%22h-0.08% · 23h-0.08% · 23h-0.08%23h0.09% · 00h0.09% · 00h0.09%00h-0.06% · 01h-0.06% · 01h-0.06%01h0.04% · 02h0.04% · 02h0.04%02h-0.04% · 03h-0.04% · 03h-0.04%03h0.05% · 04h0.05% · 04h0.05%04h0.03% · 05h0.03% · 05h0.03%05h0.02% · 06h0.02% · 06h0.02%06h0.02% · 07h0.02% · 07h0.02%07h0.07% · 08h0.07% · 08h0.07%08h-0.04% · 09h-0.04% · 09h-0.04%09h-0.11% · 10h-0.11% · 10h-0.11%10h▼ WORST0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h0.02% · 12h0.02% · 12h0.02%12hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 0.18% · worst -0.11% · typical |Δ| 0.048%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.26%FINAL+0.26%MAX DD-0.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.35%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0026 · peak 1.0035 · range [0.9996, 1.0035]1.00350.9996break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0035UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.15% · shallow0%-0.15%▼ TROUGH -0.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.15%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.11%bar 11-18 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.05%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0026 (0.26%) · max DD -0.15% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=21.82 · σ=22.41PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 1.11 (-0.92σ vs μ)58.6829.340.00-29.34-58.68μ = 21.821.631.6313.3313.3339.5439.5441.6141.6133.4333.4322.1222.1236.8136.8116.7616.7621.7021.70-20.39-20.391.091.0929.2429.2412.3212.3252.9252.9258.6858.6856.6556.65-4.03-4.030.000.001.111.11v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.114 · range [-20.39, 58.68] · μ 21.818 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=5.9231 · σ=1.8970 · range [3.0689, 9.0849] · R²=0.034▲ RISING +46.33%σ EXTREME 32.03%LAST 6.20419.08497.58096.07694.57293.0689μ = 5.9231max 9.0849min 3.0689dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 6.20% · range [3.07%, 9.08%] · μ 5.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.326 · σ=0.249MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.028 (+1.20σ vs μ)0.7710.3850.000-0.385-0.771μ = -0.326-0.502-0.502-0.381-0.381-0.059-0.059-0.029-0.029-0.390-0.390-0.178-0.178-0.314-0.314-0.370-0.370-0.341-0.341-0.659-0.659-0.771-0.771-0.600-0.600-0.437-0.437-0.551-0.551-0.283-0.283-0.440-0.4400.1950.195-0.059-0.059-0.028-0.028v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.028 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7259
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5474
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6187
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5571
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5062
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8173
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5241
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1275
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.536 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.68e-7 · top T=2.18h (19.1%) · top-3 cover 49.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.4e-76.3e-74.2e-72.1e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.60e-8 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.60e-8 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-7 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-7 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.69e-7 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.69e-7 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.47e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.47e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.40e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.40e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.21e-7 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.21e-7 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.98e-7 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.98e-7 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-7 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-7 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.00e-7 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.00e-7 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.26e-7 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.26e-7 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.43e-7 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.43e-7 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.25e-8 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 19.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.415e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² >100× (sample noise) · μ 0.000% · σ 0.00%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.00%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
292.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.90
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 90% · APY 145% · Sharpe 16.18σ ann 6% · Sortino 5.46 · n 4999
0%388%777%1165%1553%1941%89.6%APR (simple)144.7%APY (compound)5.5%Ann. vol σ1617.8%Sharpe (ann)546.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
405641254195426543344404t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:52 UTC
Snapshot age
3.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
995489e061487b81a50135bbcfe394c6aa7694bee1aa1ebf50b980364134f1fa · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,467HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.05

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$23.17K
bid $1.01K · ask $22.17K
Depth within 5bp
$232.63K
bid $61.62K · ask $171.01K
Depth within 10bp
$346.06K
bid $153.12K · ask $192.94K
Depth within 50bp
$346.06K
bid $153.12K · ask $192.94K
Mid price
4226.550000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.115
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.667
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-paxg/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4226.600.12bp4226.601FILLED
BUY$10.00K4226.740.46bp4226.803FILLED
BUY$100.00K4227.412.03bp4228.2014FILLED
SELL$1.00K4226.320.54bp4226.202FILLED
SELL$10.00K4225.422.67bp4225.006FILLED
SELL$100.00K4224.574.68bp4223.8015FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-paxg/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 4 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$4228.00–$4232.002$15
$4224.00–$4228.0010$29
$4220.00–$4224.004$30
$4216.00–$4220.00★5$71
$4212.00–$4216.004$16

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-paxg/volprofile?priceStep=4

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.198 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$96
real volume
Sell weight
$64
real volume
Net delta
$32
buyers net
Imbalance
19.77%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-paxg/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 0 found · deepest 0.00% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

no clusters detected with the current parameters. Either the market has been calm or the threshold is too tight.

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
5.54%
σ per bar = 0.000024
Mean return (annualised)
89.63%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
16.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.21%
peak 4232.20 → trough 4223.30 over 725 bars

/api/asset/hl-paxg/risk · same metrics, JSON