HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ONDO

ONDO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ondo · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.31%
realized vol (ann.)
58.48%
max drawdown
2.09%
sharpe
-54.47
ulcer index
0.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.75%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3371.60
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.95%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1635.94
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.31%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.31%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ondo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH227ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.355
24h Δ · live
-3.31%
24h vol · live
$5.1M
ONDO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3639 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.3553, 0.3747] · R²=0.887▼ FALLING -5.10%σ NORMAL 1.48%LAST 0.35530.37470.36990.36500.36010.3553μ = 0.3639max 0.3747min 0.3553dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.36
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,350,547 · μ=574021.9 · σ=402940.7 · CV=0.70STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100346,268692,5361,038,8031,385,071μ = 5740221,385,07150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1385071 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
227ms
$mark $
$0.3552
$mid $
$0.3552
◉prev-day close
$0.3673
Δ24h Δ %
-3.305%
$24h vol $
$5.14M
◐open interest $
$9.51M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3639 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.3553, 0.3747] · R²=0.887▼ FALLING -5.10%σ NORMAL 1.48%LAST 0.35530.37470.36990.36500.36010.3553μ = 0.3639max 0.3747min 0.3553dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3552 · 24h -3.31% · range $[0.3553, 0.3747]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.3545, 0.3760] · σ=0.0054 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%STRONG BEARISH -3.09%CLOSE 0.3553 vs OPEN 0.3666 (-3.09%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.35530.37600.37060.36530.35990.3545μ close = 0.36392.1%O0.367 H0.376 L0.366 C0.374 (+2.11%)O0.367 H0.376 L0.366 C0.374 (+2.11%)O0.374 H0.375 L0.370 C0.371 (-0.88%)O0.374 H0.375 L0.370 C0.371 (-0.88%)O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.357 H0.359 L0.356 C0.356 (-0.25%)O0.357 H0.359 L0.356 C0.356 (-0.25%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.355 C0.355 (-0.34%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.355 C0.355 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,350,547 · μ=574021.9 · σ=402940.7 · CV=0.70STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100346,268692,5361,038,8031,385,071μ = 574022891,247 · 64.3% peak891,247 · 64.3% peak240,782 · 17.4% peak240,782 · 17.4% peak555,674 · 40.1% peak555,674 · 40.1% peak653,758 · 47.2% peak653,758 · 47.2% peak1,335,968 · 96.5% peak1,335,968 · 96.5% peak1,031,098 · 74.4% peak1,031,098 · 74.4% peak50,423 · 3.6% peak50,423 · 3.6% peak878,802 · 63.4% peak878,802 · 63.4% peak926,505 · 66.9% peak926,505 · 66.9% peak1,066,901 · 77.0% peak1,066,901 · 77.0% peak169,511 · 12.2% peak169,511 · 12.2% peak379,512 · 27.4% peak379,512 · 27.4% peak766,489 · 55.3% peak766,489 · 55.3% peak1,385,0711,385,071 · 100.0% peak1,385,071 · 100.0% peak160,400 · 11.6% peak160,400 · 11.6% peak888,974 · 64.2% peak888,974 · 64.2% peak215,998 · 15.6% peak215,998 · 15.6% peak94,787 · 6.8% peak94,787 · 6.8% peak286,039 · 20.7% peak286,039 · 20.7% peak394,600 · 28.5% peak394,600 · 28.5% peak281,303 · 20.3% peak281,303 · 20.3% peak813,835 · 58.8% peak813,835 · 58.8% peak122,352 · 8.8% peak122,352 · 8.8% peak595,603 · 43.0% peak595,603 · 43.0% peak164,915 · 11.9% peak164,915 · 11.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14350547 · peak 1385071 · CV 0.70

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0023 · σ=0.0057 · skew=0.77 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.30 (mesokurtic)43210 2-103.47bpbin -103.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -103.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-83.21bpbin -83.21bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -83.21bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-62.96bpbin -62.96bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -62.96bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-42.70bpbin -42.70bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -42.70bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-22.44bpbin -22.44bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -22.44bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-2.18bpbin -2.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -2.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 118.07bpbin 18.07bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 18.07bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 238.33bpbin 38.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 38.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak58.59bp78.85bp 199.10bpbin 99.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 99.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1119.36bpbin 119.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 119.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 7 · negative 17
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.72 · kurt=0.24 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3552
Mid price
$0.3552
24h change
-3.31%
Mark–mid spread
0.14 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3673

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3639$95% CI: [0.3618$, 0.3660$]
σ STD DEV0.0054$σ² = 0.290×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.48%
med MEDIAN0.3637$Q₁ 0.3591$ · Q₃ 0.3661$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0195$ · IQR 0.0070$ (1.349σ→0.0073$)
min 0.3553$Q₁ 0.3591$med 0.3637$Q₃ 0.3661$max 0.3747$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.389approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.796mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-33.86
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.217977%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.362
σᵣ STD / h0.602459%σ²ᵣ = 0.363×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.76×
σ ANNUALISED56.39%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.602%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-33.86negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-33.30downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.77right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.59mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.98
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1909.48%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.02%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.023%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.116%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.093%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.19%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.023%VaR₉₉−1.116%ES₉₅−1.093%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK37.47$
−5.19% drawdown over 22h
35.53$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.48% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
27.8 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.052 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3693
Bollinger MA
$0.3619
Bollinger lower
$0.3545

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.344within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.027lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.068strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-13.408significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.068
H = 1.068STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.344k=2-0.027k=3-0.130k=4+0.198k=5-0.2710+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.14M
Open interest (USD)
$9.51M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.54x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.29% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.51%BEARISH SESSION -5.23%BEST+1.29%21hWORST-1.14%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.23%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.69%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.89%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.23%+0.10%-5.23%-0.85% · 13h-0.85% · 13h-0.85%13h0.95% · 14h0.95% · 14h0.95%14h-0.78% · 15h-0.78% · 15h-0.78%15h-1.14% · 16h-1.14% · 16h-1.14%16h▼ WORST-0.42% · 17h-0.42% · 17h-0.42%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h-0.02% · 19h-0.02% · 19h-0.02%19h-0.54% · 20h-0.54% · 20h-0.54%20h1.29% · 21h1.29% · 21h1.29%21h★ BEST-0.78% · 22h-0.78% · 22h-0.78%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h-0.51% · 00h-0.51% · 00h-0.51%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h-0.42% · 03h-0.42% · 03h-0.42%03h-1.05% · 04h-1.05% · 04h-1.05%04h0.48% · 05h0.48% · 05h0.48%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h0.02% · 07h0.02% · 07h0.02%07h0.06% · 08h0.06% · 08h0.06%08h0.46% · 09h0.46% · 09h0.46%09h-0.87% · 10h-0.87% · 10h-0.87%10h-0.31% · 11h-0.31% · 11h-0.31%11h-0.35% · 12h-0.35% · 12h-0.35%12hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH29% up · 71% down
7 up bars · 17 down · best 1.29% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.513%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.14%FINAL-5.14%MAX DD-5.23%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.09%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9486 · peak 1.0009 · range [0.9486, 1.0009]1.00090.9486break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0009UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.23% · significant0%-5.23%▼ TROUGH -5.23%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.23%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.23%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9486 (-5.14%) · max DD -5.23% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-33.40 · σ=28.18UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -34.19 (-0.03σ vs μ)110.8355.410.00-55.41-110.83μ = -33.40-48.24-48.24-32.12-32.12-110.83-110.83-17.57-17.57-11.85-11.85-7.21-7.21-15.77-15.77-9.46-9.46-1.00-1.00-75.76-75.76-71.51-71.51-38.04-38.04-33.34-33.34-43.26-43.26-36.62-36.62-9.46-9.46-5.21-5.21-33.21-33.21-34.19-34.19v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.189 · range [-110.83, -1.00] · μ -33.403 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.8008 · σ=13.3700 · range [33.8749, 76.0975] · R²=0.379▼ FALLING -39.40%σ EXTREME 23.96%LAST 42.579476.097565.541954.986244.430633.8749μ = 55.8008max 76.0975min 33.8749dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.58% · range [33.87%, 76.10%] · μ 55.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.279 · σ=0.244MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.126 (+0.63σ vs μ)0.5970.2980.000-0.298-0.597μ = -0.279-0.299-0.299-0.003-0.0030.3740.374-0.110-0.110-0.594-0.594-0.597-0.597-0.537-0.537-0.557-0.557-0.353-0.353-0.187-0.1870.0360.036-0.346-0.346-0.307-0.307-0.412-0.412-0.324-0.324-0.382-0.382-0.403-0.403-0.182-0.182-0.126-0.126v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.126 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.7494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2529
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1937
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5930
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0425
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8844
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5131
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1303
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.540 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.80e-5 · top T=2.00h (16.9%) · top-3 cover 45.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.7e-55.8e-53.8e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.65e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.33e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.33e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.79e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.79e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.63e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.63e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.85e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.85e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.36e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.36e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.39e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.39e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.69e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.69e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.70e-5 · 16.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.70e-5 · 16.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 16.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.559e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-55.41×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -23.14400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -23.14
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -31.84σ ann 57% · Sortino -26.44 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3820%-3042%-2265%-1487%-709%69%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)57.4%Ann. vol σ-3183.5%Sharpe (ann)-2644.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3410.3480.3550.3630.3700.378t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Snapshot age
227ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
bb1b1bc830b0d213508e81b121844dee20b63d3acfc096c517c259e125dbb89d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$10.71K
bid $6.50K · ask $4.20K
Depth within 10bp
$44.57K
bid $22.73K · ask $21.84K
Depth within 50bp
$93.00K
bid $41.28K · ask $51.73K
Mid price
0.355165
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.111
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.181
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ondo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3552582.63bp0.3552602FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3553284.58bp0.3554307FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.3555119.74bp0.35572020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3550722.62bp0.3550702FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3550024.59bp0.3549108FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.3548478.96bp0.35464020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ondo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.35M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ondo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.318 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 17
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.87M
real volume
Net delta
$4.27M
sellers net
Imbalance
-31.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
31.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ondo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z5.0h0.374720→0.3636902.944%6
#22026-06-14 03:00:00Z3.0h0.363980→0.3582301.580%4
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.360760→0.3552601.525%3

/api/asset/hl-ondo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
57.45%
σ per bar = 0.000251
Mean return (annualised)
-1828.92%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.84
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.29%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.35 over 3546 bars

/api/asset/hl-ondo/risk · same metrics, JSON