HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NXPC

NXPC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-nxpc · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.69%
realized vol (ann.)
57.09%
max drawdown
1.93%
sharpe
-38.10
ulcer index
1.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1906.80
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1181.94
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.69%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +2.69%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-nxpc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.353
24h Δ · live
2.69%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
NXPC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3520 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.3472, 0.3557] · R²=0.056▲ RISING +0.86%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 0.35320.35570.35360.35150.34930.3472μ = 0.3520max 0.3557min 0.3472dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.35
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=419,822 · μ=16792.9 · σ=13191.7 · CV=0.79STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11014,55629,11343,66958,225μ = 1679358,22550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 58225 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.3526
$mid $
$0.3525
◉prev-day close
$0.3433
Δ24h Δ %
+2.694%
$24h vol $
$140.84k
◐open interest $
$754.94k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3520 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.3472, 0.3557] · R²=0.056▲ RISING +0.86%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 0.35320.35570.35360.35150.34930.3472μ = 0.3520max 0.3557min 0.3472dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3526 · 24h 2.69% · range $[0.3472, 0.3557]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.3406, 0.3574] · σ=0.0022 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +1.86%CLOSE 0.3532 vs OPEN 0.3467 (+1.86%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.35320.35740.35320.34900.34480.3406μ close = 0.3520O0.347 H0.352 L0.341 C0.350 (+0.99%)O0.347 H0.352 L0.341 C0.350 (+0.99%)O0.350 H0.354 L0.350 C0.351 (+0.29%)O0.350 H0.354 L0.350 C0.351 (+0.29%)O0.351 H0.354 L0.348 C0.348 (-0.77%)O0.351 H0.354 L0.348 C0.348 (-0.77%)1.2%O0.348 H0.354 L0.348 C0.352 (+1.20%)O0.348 H0.354 L0.348 C0.352 (+1.20%)O0.351 H0.354 L0.351 C0.353 (+0.36%)O0.351 H0.354 L0.351 C0.353 (+0.36%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.350 C0.352 (-0.17%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.350 C0.352 (-0.17%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.351 C0.351 (-0.14%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.351 C0.351 (-0.14%)O0.351 H0.355 L0.351 C0.355 (+0.92%)O0.351 H0.355 L0.351 C0.355 (+0.92%)O0.355 H0.355 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.59%)O0.355 H0.355 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.59%)O0.353 H0.354 L0.351 C0.353 (-0.09%)O0.353 H0.354 L0.351 C0.353 (-0.09%)O0.353 H0.355 L0.352 C0.355 (+0.52%)O0.353 H0.355 L0.352 C0.355 (+0.52%)O0.355 H0.355 L0.351 C0.353 (-0.60%)O0.355 H0.355 L0.351 C0.353 (-0.60%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.349 C0.352 (-0.29%)O0.353 H0.353 L0.349 C0.352 (-0.29%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.350 C0.351 (-0.11%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.350 C0.351 (-0.11%)O0.351 H0.353 L0.351 C0.352 (+0.22%)O0.351 H0.353 L0.351 C0.352 (+0.22%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.350 C0.350 (-0.65%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.350 C0.350 (-0.65%)O0.350 H0.351 L0.347 C0.347 (-0.83%)O0.350 H0.351 L0.347 C0.347 (-0.83%)O0.347 H0.351 L0.347 C0.348 (+0.22%)O0.347 H0.351 L0.347 C0.348 (+0.22%)O0.348 H0.354 L0.347 C0.352 (+1.16%)O0.348 H0.354 L0.347 C0.352 (+1.16%)O0.353 H0.357 L0.353 C0.355 (+0.59%)O0.353 H0.357 L0.353 C0.355 (+0.59%)O0.355 H0.357 L0.353 C0.356 (+0.15%)O0.355 H0.357 L0.353 C0.356 (+0.15%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.354 C0.354 (-0.36%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.354 C0.354 (-0.36%)O0.354 H0.355 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.43%)O0.354 H0.355 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.43%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.351 C0.353 (+0.16%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.351 C0.353 (+0.16%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.352 C0.353 (+0.25%)O0.352 H0.353 L0.352 C0.353 (+0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=419,822 · μ=16792.9 · σ=13191.7 · CV=0.79STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11014,55629,11343,66958,225μ = 1679358,22558,225 · 100.0% peak58,225 · 100.0% peak34,711 · 59.6% peak34,711 · 59.6% peak37,072 · 63.7% peak37,072 · 63.7% peak21,175 · 36.4% peak21,175 · 36.4% peak17,519 · 30.1% peak17,519 · 30.1% peak8,443 · 14.5% peak8,443 · 14.5% peak5,562 · 9.6% peak5,562 · 9.6% peak7,666 · 13.2% peak7,666 · 13.2% peak6,144 · 10.6% peak6,144 · 10.6% peak6,462 · 11.1% peak6,462 · 11.1% peak12,479 · 21.4% peak12,479 · 21.4% peak15,949 · 27.4% peak15,949 · 27.4% peak33,379 · 57.3% peak33,379 · 57.3% peak30,769 · 52.8% peak30,769 · 52.8% peak5,099 · 8.8% peak5,099 · 8.8% peak14,505 · 24.9% peak14,505 · 24.9% peak12,761 · 21.9% peak12,761 · 21.9% peak12,359 · 21.2% peak12,359 · 21.2% peak25,397 · 43.6% peak25,397 · 43.6% peak9,179 · 15.8% peak9,179 · 15.8% peak15,300 · 26.3% peak15,300 · 26.3% peak7,488 · 12.9% peak7,488 · 12.9% peak12,930 · 22.2% peak12,930 · 22.2% peak6,755 · 11.6% peak6,755 · 11.6% peak2,494 · 4.3% peak2,494 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 419822 · peak 58225 · CV 0.79

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0054 · skew=0.58 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)43210 2-73.43bpbin -73.43bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -73.43bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-57.34bpbin -57.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -57.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-41.26bpbin -41.26bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -41.26bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-25.17bpbin -25.17bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -25.17bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-9.09bpbin -9.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -9.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 47.00bpbin 7.00bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 7.00bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 123.09bpbin 23.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 23.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 139.17bpbin 39.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 39.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 155.26bpbin 55.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 55.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak71.34bp 187.43bpbin 87.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 87.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3103.51bpbin 103.51bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 103.51bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.51 · kurt=-0.61 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3526
Mid price
$0.3525
24h change
+2.69%
Mark–mid spread
1.56 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3433

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.52)
μ MEAN0.3520$95% CI: [0.3512$, 0.3529$]
σ STD DEV0.0022$σ² = 0.046×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.61%
med MEDIAN0.3523$Q₁ 0.3514$ · Q₃ 0.3528$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0085$ · IQR 0.0014$ (1.349σ→0.0029$)
min 0.3472$Q₁ 0.3514$med 0.3523$Q₃ 0.3528$max 0.3557$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.520left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.168mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.12
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.93
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.78
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.035784%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.062
σᵣ STD / h0.579656%σ²ᵣ = 0.336×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.20×
σ ANNUALISED54.25%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.580%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.78excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.21strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.55right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.46mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.25
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+313.47%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.756%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.805%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.795%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.09%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.756%VaR₉₉−0.805%ES₉₅−0.795%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK35.46$
−2.09% drawdown over 6h
34.72$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.13% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.597 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3567
Bollinger MA
$0.3523
Bollinger lower
$0.3479

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.010within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.238lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.850strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.171fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.850
H = 0.850STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.010k=2-0.238k=3-0.181k=4+0.012k=5-0.1480+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.17)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.17)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$140.84k
Open interest (USD)
$754.94k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.19x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.12% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BULLISH +0.86%BEST+1.12%06hWORST-0.81%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.86%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.76%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.01%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.09%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.86%+1.57%-0.83%0.31% · 13h0.31% · 13h0.31%13h-0.81% · 14h-0.81% · 14h-0.81%14h▼ WORST1.11% · 15h1.11% · 15h1.11%15h0.12% · 16h0.12% · 16h0.12%16h-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h-0.18% · 18h-0.18% · 18h-0.18%18h0.89% · 19h0.89% · 19h0.89%19h-0.56% · 20h-0.56% · 20h-0.56%20h-0.03% · 21h-0.03% · 21h-0.03%21h0.60% · 22h0.60% · 22h0.60%22h-0.58% · 23h-0.58% · 23h-0.58%23h-0.23% · 00h-0.23% · 00h-0.23%00h-0.10% · 01h-0.10% · 01h-0.10%01h0.23% · 02h0.23% · 02h0.23%02h-0.65% · 03h-0.65% · 03h-0.65%03h-0.77% · 04h-0.77% · 04h-0.77%04h0.12% · 05h0.12% · 05h0.12%05h1.12% · 06h1.12% · 06h1.12%06h★ BEST1.06% · 07h1.06% · 07h1.06%07h0.11% · 08h0.11% · 08h0.11%08h-0.39% · 09h-0.39% · 09h-0.39%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.76%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.12% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.449%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.82%FINAL+0.82%MAX DD-2.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.54%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0082 · peak 1.0154 · range [0.9914, 1.0154]1.01540.9914break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0154UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.10% · moderate0%-2.10%▼ TROUGH -2.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.10%bar 12-19 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -0.86%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.81%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0082 (0.82%) · max DD -2.10% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=1.44 · σ=31.16PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 13.24 (+0.38σ vs μ)85.8842.940.00-42.94-85.88μ = 1.449.179.1720.4920.4928.5228.522.102.1015.6615.663.443.442.332.33-32.23-32.23-4.28-4.28-23.88-23.88-85.88-85.88-54.13-54.13-1.49-1.4921.1321.1318.9118.9125.4425.4436.5536.5532.2332.2313.2413.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 13.237 · range [-85.88, 36.55] · μ 1.437 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.8332 · σ=12.8013 · range [35.8966, 75.4804] · R²=0.043▼ FALLING -15.90%σ EXTREME 22.93%LAST 50.397975.480465.584455.688545.792635.8966μ = 55.8332max 75.4804min 35.8966dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 50.40% · range [35.90%, 75.48%] · μ 55.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.081 · σ=0.394CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.210 (+0.74σ vs μ)0.5630.2820.000-0.282-0.563μ = -0.081-0.504-0.504-0.416-0.416-0.316-0.316-0.538-0.538-0.439-0.439-0.563-0.563-0.382-0.382-0.269-0.269-0.297-0.297-0.404-0.4040.1360.136-0.118-0.1180.1550.1550.4850.4850.4820.4820.2620.2620.4270.4270.5480.5480.2100.210v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.210 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4154
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4928
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.3054
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6556
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5532
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4918
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3733
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7089
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.886 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.30e-5 · top T=4.80h (15.7%) · top-3 cover 42.8%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)6.2e-54.7e-53.1e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 6.53e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.53e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.66e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.66e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.20e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.20e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.09e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.09e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.94e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.94e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.74e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.74e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.53e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.53e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 5.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 15.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.962e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 18.99× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
18.99×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 10.74400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 10.74
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.09%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 809% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 12.39σ ann 65% · Sortino 8.98 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%297%595%892%1190%1487%808.5%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)65.2%Ann. vol σ1239.2%Sharpe (ann)898.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3330.3410.3490.3560.3640.372t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:58 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
32218eafb97359190971b628f36764bcea5cac2c3597ee77d949e2d874780026 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,473HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.03

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.45K
bid $2.54K · ask $1.91K
Depth within 10bp
$7.60K
bid $4.10K · ask $3.50K
Depth within 50bp
$49.75K
bid $30.67K · ask $19.08K
Mid price
0.352535
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.029
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.329
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nxpc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3526312.73bp0.3526902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.35319818.79bp0.35393011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.35571790.27bp0.36109020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3524462.53bp0.3523904FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.35204014.04bp0.35171011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.35108441.15bp0.34672020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$419.82K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nxpc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.096 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$163.38K
real volume
Sell weight
$198.22K
real volume
Net delta
$34.84K
sellers net
Imbalance
-9.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-nxpc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.42% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 03:00:00Z2.0h0.352220→0.3472301.417%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.354640→0.3514200.908%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.355680→0.3526300.858%2

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
65.24%
σ per bar = 0.000285
Mean return (annualised)
808.51%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
12.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.97%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.35 over 2194 bars

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/risk · same metrics, JSON