HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MORPHO

MORPHO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-morpho · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.94%
realized vol (ann.)
41.96%
max drawdown
0.87%
sharpe
-30.55
ulcer index
0.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2390.23
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.80%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1601.41
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.94%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-17.25%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-morpho/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.943
24h Δ · live
-0.94%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
MORPHO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.9475 · σ=0.0069 · range [1.9327, 1.9595] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ LOW 0.35%LAST 1.94311.95951.95281.94611.93941.9327μ = 1.9475max 1.9595min 1.9327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.94
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.8%Short fee 51.2%SHORT FEE51.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001970% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=339,136 · μ=13565.4 · σ=23811.8 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8030,91061,82092,730123,640μ = 13565123,640.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 123640 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.7s
$mark $
$1.9431
$mid $
$1.9435
◉prev-day close
$1.9615
Δ24h Δ %
-0.938%
$24h vol $
$439.26k
◐open interest $
$4.22M
%funding (1h)
-0.001970%
%funding (yr)
-17.25%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.9475 · σ=0.0069 · range [1.9327, 1.9595] · R²=0.000▬ FLATσ LOW 0.35%LAST 1.94311.95951.95281.94611.93941.9327μ = 1.9475max 1.9595min 1.9327dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.9431 · 24h -0.94% · range $[1.9327, 1.9595]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [1.9222, 1.9804] · σ=0.0069 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=41%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 1.9431 vs OPEN 1.9421 (+0.05%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.94311.98041.96581.95131.93671.9222μ close = 1.9475O1.942 H1.980 L1.938 C1.943 (+0.04%)O1.942 H1.980 L1.938 C1.943 (+0.04%)O1.943 H1.953 L1.936 C1.941 (-0.07%)O1.943 H1.953 L1.936 C1.941 (-0.07%)O1.942 H1.950 L1.933 C1.947 (+0.28%)O1.942 H1.950 L1.933 C1.947 (+0.28%)O1.946 H1.958 L1.934 C1.956 (+0.52%)O1.946 H1.958 L1.934 C1.956 (+0.52%)O1.954 H1.955 L1.944 C1.948 (-0.29%)O1.954 H1.955 L1.944 C1.948 (-0.29%)O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.933 (-0.79%)O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.933 (-0.79%)O1.933 H1.946 L1.927 C1.943 (+0.52%)O1.933 H1.946 L1.927 C1.943 (+0.52%)O1.942 H1.956 L1.942 C1.951 (+0.46%)O1.942 H1.956 L1.942 C1.951 (+0.46%)O1.952 H1.960 L1.941 C1.950 (-0.09%)O1.952 H1.960 L1.941 C1.950 (-0.09%)O1.954 H1.961 L1.950 C1.952 (-0.10%)O1.954 H1.961 L1.950 C1.952 (-0.10%)O1.954 H1.960 L1.951 C1.958 (+0.25%)O1.954 H1.960 L1.951 C1.958 (+0.25%)O1.958 H1.962 L1.954 C1.960 (+0.06%)O1.958 H1.962 L1.954 C1.960 (+0.06%)O1.960 H1.971 L1.946 C1.948 (-0.59%)O1.960 H1.971 L1.946 C1.948 (-0.59%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.944 (-0.23%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.944 (-0.23%)O1.944 H1.952 L1.936 C1.940 (-0.21%)O1.944 H1.952 L1.936 C1.940 (-0.21%)O1.939 H1.946 L1.934 C1.937 (-0.07%)O1.939 H1.946 L1.934 C1.937 (-0.07%)1.1%O1.938 H1.964 L1.938 C1.959 (+1.08%)O1.938 H1.964 L1.938 C1.959 (+1.08%)O1.957 H1.963 L1.949 C1.950 (-0.35%)O1.957 H1.963 L1.949 C1.950 (-0.35%)O1.950 H1.957 L1.946 C1.953 (+0.19%)O1.950 H1.957 L1.946 C1.953 (+0.19%)O1.955 H1.956 L1.941 C1.944 (-0.57%)O1.955 H1.956 L1.941 C1.944 (-0.57%)O1.942 H1.962 L1.941 C1.952 (+0.53%)O1.942 H1.962 L1.941 C1.952 (+0.53%)O1.952 H1.958 L1.939 C1.943 (-0.48%)O1.952 H1.958 L1.939 C1.943 (-0.48%)O1.944 H1.951 L1.944 C1.949 (+0.23%)O1.944 H1.951 L1.944 C1.949 (+0.23%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.942 (-0.33%)O1.948 H1.950 L1.939 C1.942 (-0.33%)O1.941 H1.944 L1.939 C1.943 (+0.11%)O1.941 H1.944 L1.939 C1.943 (+0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=339,136 · μ=13565.4 · σ=23811.8 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=8030,91061,82092,730123,640μ = 13565123,640.3123,640.3 · 100.0% peak123,640.3 · 100.0% peak10,960.2 · 8.9% peak10,960.2 · 8.9% peak8,750.1 · 7.1% peak8,750.1 · 7.1% peak6,843.3 · 5.5% peak6,843.3 · 5.5% peak2,709.6 · 2.2% peak2,709.6 · 2.2% peak9,156.4 · 7.4% peak9,156.4 · 7.4% peak7,245.7 · 5.9% peak7,245.7 · 5.9% peak8,289.8 · 6.7% peak8,289.8 · 6.7% peak8,290.2 · 6.7% peak8,290.2 · 6.7% peak3,550.9 · 2.9% peak3,550.9 · 2.9% peak2,712.5 · 2.2% peak2,712.5 · 2.2% peak5,650 · 4.6% peak5,650 · 4.6% peak12,649.9 · 10.2% peak12,649.9 · 10.2% peak7,151.4 · 5.8% peak7,151.4 · 5.8% peak3,372.4 · 2.7% peak3,372.4 · 2.7% peak19,663.4 · 15.9% peak19,663.4 · 15.9% peak10,472.9 · 8.5% peak10,472.9 · 8.5% peak6,586.9 · 5.3% peak6,586.9 · 5.3% peak3,305.4 · 2.7% peak3,305.4 · 2.7% peak13,287.8 · 10.7% peak13,287.8 · 10.7% peak29,299 · 23.7% peak29,299 · 23.7% peak21,320.1 · 17.2% peak21,320.1 · 17.2% peak7,132.5 · 5.8% peak7,132.5 · 5.8% peak5,334.5 · 4.3% peak5,334.5 · 4.3% peak1,760.6 · 1.4% peak1,760.6 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 339136 · peak 123640 · CV 1.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0041 · skew=0.36 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.26 (mesokurtic)43210 1-70.01bpbin -70.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -70.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-54.37bpbin -54.37bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -54.37bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-38.72bpbin -38.72bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -38.72bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-23.08bpbin -23.08bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -23.08bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-7.44bpbin -7.44bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -7.44bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 48.20bpbin 8.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 223.84bpbin 23.84bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 23.84bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 439.48bpbin 39.48bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 39.48bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 155.12bpbin 55.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 55.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak70.76bp86.40bp 1102.04bpbin 102.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 102.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.38 · kurt=-0.14 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.9431
Mid price
$1.9435
24h change
-0.94%
Mark–mid spread
2.06 bps
Prev-day close
$1.9615

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.9475$95% CI: [1.9448$, 1.9502$]
σ STD DEV0.0069$σ² = 0.473×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.35%
med MEDIAN1.9478$Q₁ 1.9431$ · Q₃ 1.9519$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0268$ · IQR 0.0088$ (1.349σ→0.0093$)
min 1.9327$Q₁ 1.9431$med 1.9478$Q₃ 1.9519$max 1.9595$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.007approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.751mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.90
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDWEAK · SR=0.14
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.000643%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.001
σᵣ STD / h0.439501%σ²ᵣ = 0.193×10⁻⁴ · CV = 683.14×
σ ANNUALISED41.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.440%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)0.14marginal edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)0.15downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)4.71strong DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.40approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.13mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control strongCR = 4.71
EXPECTED EDGE+5.64%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.55%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.552%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.729%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.671%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.20%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.552%VaR₉₉−0.729%ES₉₅−0.671%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK195.61$
−1.20% drawdown over 2h
193.27$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.21% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.346 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.9621
Bollinger MA
$1.9476
Bollinger lower
$1.9331

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.270within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.075lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.753strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.047fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.753
H = 0.753STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.270k=2-0.075k=3-0.289k=4+0.217k=5-0.2060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$439.26k
Open interest (USD)
$4.22M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
-0.001970%
Funding (annualised)
-17.25%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
0.333× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.167× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.083×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.10% · worst -0.78% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MIXED · 12 UP / 12 DN · neutralBEST+1.10%05hWORST-0.78%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.02%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.26%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.02%+0.86%-0.52%-0.07% · 14h-0.07% · 14h-0.07%14h0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h0.45% · 16h0.45% · 16h0.45%16h-0.43% · 17h-0.43% · 17h-0.43%17h-0.78% · 18h-0.78% · 18h-0.78%18h▼ WORST0.55% · 19h0.55% · 19h0.55%19h0.42% · 20h0.42% · 20h0.42%20h-0.08% · 21h-0.08% · 21h-0.08%21h0.11% · 22h0.11% · 22h0.11%22h0.33% · 23h0.33% · 23h0.33%23h0.06% · 00h0.06% · 00h0.06%00h-0.56% · 01h-0.56% · 01h-0.56%01h-0.23% · 02h-0.23% · 02h-0.23%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h-0.11% · 04h-0.11% · 04h-0.11%04h1.10% · 05h1.10% · 05h1.10%05h★ BEST-0.42% · 06h-0.42% · 06h-0.42%06h0.15% · 07h0.15% · 07h0.15%07h-0.49% · 08h-0.49% · 08h-0.49%08h0.45% · 09h0.45% · 09h0.45%09h-0.48% · 10h-0.48% · 10h-0.48%10h0.29% · 11h0.29% · 11h0.29%11h-0.38% · 12h-0.38% · 12h-0.38%12h0.08% · 13h0.08% · 13h0.08%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.57%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.10% · worst -0.78% · typical |Δ| 0.356%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.01%)FINAL-0.01%MAX DD-1.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.85%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9999 · peak 1.0085 · range [0.9947, 1.0085]1.00850.9947break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0085UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.20% · moderate0%-1.20%▼ TROUGH -1.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.20%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -1.14%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.07%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9999 (-0.01%) · max DD -1.20% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.63 · σ=26.70MIXED EDGELAST -19.70 (-0.76σ vs μ)89.5044.750.00-44.75-89.50μ = 0.630.760.7614.5814.583.703.70-6.65-6.6517.5917.5989.5089.5011.9311.93-18.94-18.94-26.06-26.06-38.75-38.750.420.42-12.14-12.146.966.96-0.55-0.5517.3917.397.377.37-18.46-18.46-16.95-16.95-19.70-19.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -19.698 · range [-38.75, 89.50] · μ 0.633 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.0184 · σ=11.2958 · range [22.4662, 60.2014] · R²=0.014▼ FALLING -21.25%σ EXTREME 25.66%LAST 38.805460.201450.767641.333831.900022.4662μ = 44.0184max 60.2014min 22.4662dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.81% · range [22.47%, 60.20%] · μ 44.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.220 · σ=0.369CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.852 (-1.71σ vs μ)0.8810.4400.000-0.440-0.881μ = -0.220-0.122-0.1220.0580.058-0.060-0.0600.0730.073-0.262-0.2620.0300.030-0.066-0.0660.2800.2800.3190.3190.1260.1260.0330.033-0.195-0.195-0.388-0.388-0.406-0.406-0.557-0.557-0.497-0.497-0.818-0.818-0.881-0.881-0.852-0.852v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.852 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.4753
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6617
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0050
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0791
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2036
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2287
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.634 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.11e-5 · top T=2.00h (24.7%) · top-3 cover 51.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.3e-54.7e-53.1e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.02e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.02e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.56e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.56e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.73e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.35e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.35e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.18e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.18e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.31e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.31e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.61e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.61e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.25e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.25e-5 · 24.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.534e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.83× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.83× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.83×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.83×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.42×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.21×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.21× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 1.15400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.21× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 1.15
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.06%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 81% · APY 107% · Sharpe 1.98σ ann 41% · Sortino 1.19 · n 4999
0%48%95%143%190%238%81.2%APR (simple)107.1%APY (compound)41.0%Ann. vol σ198.2%Sharpe (ann)118.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.8621.8981.9351.9712.0082.044t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:44 UTC
Snapshot age
1.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cbb2409d3d9af24dfffccf1637901239cc9d1516cc004c84ef69427de3219357 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.49K
bid $2.31K · ask $2.18K
Depth within 10bp
$14.65K
bid $9.29K · ask $5.36K
Depth within 50bp
$56.63K
bid $29.77K · ask $26.86K
Mid price
1.943300
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.053
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.201
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-morpho/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.94382.66bp1.94423FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.945511.13bp1.947412FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.947822.92bp1.950020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.94282.70bp1.94253FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.94197.40bp1.94089FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.940116.65bp1.937420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.970e-5
-0.00197% / hr
Annualised APR
-17.265%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
21.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
21.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE17.265%21.2d211.6d
SHORTPAY-17.265%21.2d211.6d

/api/asset/hl-morpho/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$339.14K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-morpho/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.118 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$95.01K
real volume
Sell weight
$120.48K
real volume
Net delta
$25.47K
sellers net
Imbalance
-11.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-morpho/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.20% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 18:00:00Z1.0h1.9561→1.93271.196%2
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z3.0h1.9595→1.93731.133%4
#32026-06-14 08:00:00Z0ms1.9587→1.94370.766%1

/api/asset/hl-morpho/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.99%
σ per bar = 0.000179
Mean return (annualised)
81.22%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.32%
peak 1.96 → trough 1.94 over 4342 bars

/api/asset/hl-morpho/risk · same metrics, JSON