HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MOODENG

MOODENG-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-moodeng · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.97%
realized vol (ann.)
67.89%
max drawdown
1.34%
sharpe
23.95
ulcer index
0.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1942.35
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.25%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1300.69
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.97%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.97%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-moodeng/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.040
24h Δ · live
-1.97%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
MOODENG · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0402 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0397, 0.0406] · R²=0.738▼ FALLING -1.65%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.03990.04060.04040.04020.03990.0397μ = 0.0402max 0.0406min 0.0397dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,004,628 · μ=360185.1 · σ=436747.7 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110414,146828,2931,242,4391,656,585μ = 3601851,656,58550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1656585 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.0399
$mid $
$0.0399
◉prev-day close
$0.0407
Δ24h Δ %
-1.969%
$24h vol $
$361.94k
◐open interest $
$398.96k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0402 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0397, 0.0406] · R²=0.738▼ FALLING -1.65%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.03990.04060.04040.04020.03990.0397μ = 0.0402max 0.0406min 0.0397dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0399 · 24h -1.97% · range $[0.0397, 0.0406]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0392, 0.0416] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -2.19%CLOSE 0.0399 vs OPEN 0.0408 (-2.19%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03990.04160.04100.04040.03980.0392μ close = 0.0402O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.55%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.041 C0.041 (-0.55%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.32%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.32%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.13%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.13%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-0.27%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-0.27%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.00%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.00%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.12%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.12%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.51%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.51%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.77%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.77%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.53%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.53%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.53%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.53%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.49%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.49%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.19%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.19%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.84%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.84%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.07%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.07%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.48%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.48%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.61%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.61%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.87%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.87%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.74%)O0.040 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.74%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.40%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.40%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.20%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.20%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.85%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.85%)1.0%O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+1.01%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+1.01%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.58%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (-0.58%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.05%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.05%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.12%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.12%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,004,628 · μ=360185.1 · σ=436747.7 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110414,146828,2931,242,4391,656,585μ = 36018561,616 · 3.7% peak61,616 · 3.7% peak114,945 · 6.9% peak114,945 · 6.9% peak427,428 · 25.8% peak427,428 · 25.8% peak112,997 · 6.8% peak112,997 · 6.8% peak1,656,5851,656,585 · 100.0% peak1,656,585 · 100.0% peak1,093,034 · 66.0% peak1,093,034 · 66.0% peak349,059 · 21.1% peak349,059 · 21.1% peak420,557 · 25.4% peak420,557 · 25.4% peak74,305 · 4.5% peak74,305 · 4.5% peak56,930 · 3.4% peak56,930 · 3.4% peak505,900 · 30.5% peak505,900 · 30.5% peak107,150 · 6.5% peak107,150 · 6.5% peak346,837 · 20.9% peak346,837 · 20.9% peak52,636 · 3.2% peak52,636 · 3.2% peak484,489 · 29.2% peak484,489 · 29.2% peak85,776 · 5.2% peak85,776 · 5.2% peak74,263 · 4.5% peak74,263 · 4.5% peak1,452,418 · 87.7% peak1,452,418 · 87.7% peak169,844 · 10.3% peak169,844 · 10.3% peak155,733 · 9.4% peak155,733 · 9.4% peak418,120 · 25.2% peak418,120 · 25.2% peak612,945 · 37.0% peak612,945 · 37.0% peak69,775 · 4.2% peak69,775 · 4.2% peak74,417 · 4.5% peak74,417 · 4.5% peak26,869 · 1.6% peak26,869 · 1.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9004628 · peak 1656585 · CV 1.21

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0052 · skew=0.36 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.14 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 3-74.59bpbin -74.59bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -74.59bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-59.66bpbin -59.66bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -59.66bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-44.73bpbin -44.73bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -44.73bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-29.80bpbin -29.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-14.87bpbin -14.87bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -14.87bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 10.06bpbin 0.06bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 0.06bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 414.99bpbin 14.99bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 14.99bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak29.92bp 144.85bpbin 44.85bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 44.85bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 259.78bpbin 59.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 59.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 274.71bpbin 74.71bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 74.71bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 189.64bpbin 89.64bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 89.64bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.37 · kurt=-1.06 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0399
Mid price
$0.0399
24h change
-1.97%
Mark–mid spread
0.75 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0407

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.17)
μ MEAN0.0402$95% CI: [0.0401$, 0.0403$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.70%
med MEDIAN0.0403$Q₁ 0.0400$ · Q₃ 0.0405$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0010$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0397$Q₁ 0.0400$med 0.0403$Q₃ 0.0405$max 0.0406$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.370approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.167platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.49
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.99
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.069326%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.128
σᵣ STD / h0.541378%σ²ᵣ = 0.293×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.81×
σ ANNUALISED50.67%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.541%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.99negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.06downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.39approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.02platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-607.30%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.77%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.773%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.813%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.803%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.42%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.773%VaR₉₉−0.813%ES₉₅−0.803%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK4.06$
−2.42% drawdown over 11h
3.97$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.48% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.242 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0407
Bollinger MA
$0.0402
Bollinger lower
$0.0396

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.72 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.722negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.496lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.786strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.041significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.786
H = 0.786STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..55 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · multi-lag dependence
k=1 ★-0.722k=2+0.496k=3-0.473k=4+0.476k=5-0.5370+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.72 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$361.94k
Open interest (USD)
$398.96k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.91x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.47%MILD BEARISH -1.66%BEST+0.97%09hWORST-0.82%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.47%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.02%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.66%+0.25%-2.20%-0.34% · 13h-0.34% · 13h-0.34%13h0.38% · 14h0.38% · 14h0.38%14h-0.14% · 15h-0.14% · 15h-0.14%15h-0.21% · 16h-0.21% · 16h-0.21%16h0.11% · 17h0.11% · 17h0.11%17h-0.60% · 18h-0.60% · 18h-0.60%18h0.77% · 19h0.77% · 19h0.77%19h-0.39% · 20h-0.39% · 20h-0.39%20h0.67% · 21h0.67% · 21h0.67%21h-0.57% · 22h-0.57% · 22h-0.57%22h0.21% · 23h0.21% · 23h0.21%23h-0.79% · 00h-0.79% · 00h-0.79%00h0.17% · 01h0.17% · 01h0.17%01h-0.51% · 02h-0.51% · 02h-0.51%02h0.53% · 03h0.53% · 03h0.53%03h-0.82% · 04h-0.82% · 04h-0.82%04h▼ WORST0.75% · 05h0.75% · 05h0.75%05h-0.41% · 06h-0.41% · 06h-0.41%06h-0.32% · 07h-0.32% · 07h-0.32%07h-0.70% · 08h-0.70% · 08h-0.70%08h0.97% · 09h0.97% · 09h0.97%09h★ BEST-0.66% · 10h-0.66% · 10h-0.66%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11h0.20% · 12h0.20% · 12h0.20%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.02%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.97% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.468%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.68%)FINAL-1.68%MAX DD-2.44%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.24%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9832 · peak 1.0024 · range [0.9779, 1.0024]1.00240.9779break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0024UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.44% · moderate0%-2.44%▼ TROUGH -2.44%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.44%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.84%bar 4-9 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.34%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.44%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9832 (-1.68%) · max DD -2.44% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-13.58 · σ=13.44UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -11.99 (+0.12σ vs μ)36.4118.210.00-18.21-36.41μ = -13.58-36.41-36.4110.0310.03-15.06-15.069.479.47-0.44-0.442.172.17-2.35-2.35-19.57-19.57-22.27-22.27-28.14-28.14-32.64-32.64-15.05-15.05-7.08-7.08-19.53-19.53-23.31-23.31-10.81-10.81-7.80-7.80-27.27-27.27-11.99-11.99v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -11.988 · range [-36.41, 10.03] · μ -13.581 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.7636 · σ=8.9879 · range [31.9714, 71.2775] · R²=0.525▲ RISING +83.94%σ EXTREME 16.12%LAST 58.807171.277561.451051.624541.797931.9714μ = 55.7636max 71.2775min 31.9714dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.81% · range [31.97%, 71.28%] · μ 55.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.644 · σ=0.134MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.579 (+0.48σ vs μ)0.8770.4380.000-0.438-0.877μ = -0.644-0.403-0.403-0.460-0.460-0.718-0.718-0.698-0.698-0.778-0.778-0.799-0.799-0.566-0.566-0.738-0.738-0.645-0.645-0.677-0.677-0.753-0.753-0.691-0.691-0.877-0.877-0.773-0.773-0.545-0.545-0.454-0.454-0.485-0.485-0.589-0.589-0.579-0.579v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.579 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.6553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4371
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
44.2957
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9415
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.9784
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0029
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8272
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0061
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0436
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.386 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.06e-5 · top T=2.00h (61.7%) · top-3 cover 79.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.3e-41.5e-47.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.24e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.24e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.06e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.06e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.61e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.61e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.15e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.15e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.57e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.57e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.11e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.11e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 61.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 61.7% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 61.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.874e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-11.22×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.33400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.33
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -10.93σ ann 97% · Sortino -8.64 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1312%-1026%-740%-455%-169%117%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)97.4%Ann. vol σ-1093.2%Sharpe (ann)-863.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0380.0390.0400.0410.0420.043t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
14757b0cdf8619a8103a56528243579470f946f451969cb04eaa4ee9f1bc2da9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.91K
bid $2.42K · ask $2.49K
Depth within 10bp
$11.80K
bid $4.13K · ask $7.68K
Depth within 50bp
$43.85K
bid $22.26K · ask $21.59K
Mid price
0.039877
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.017
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.176
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-moodeng/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0398841.79bp0.0398852FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0399057.14bp0.03992911FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03993414.30bp0.03999220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0398711.50bp0.0398711FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03983311.02bp0.03980310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03979221.40bp0.03972720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-moodeng/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-moodeng/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.014 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.41M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.53M
real volume
Net delta
$122.69K
sellers net
Imbalance
-1.37%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-moodeng/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.040645→0.0400481.469%3
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z1.0h0.040232→0.0396601.422%2
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.040259→0.0399300.817%1

/api/asset/hl-moodeng/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
97.44%
σ per bar = 0.000425
Mean return (annualised)
-1065.25%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.31%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 2094 bars

/api/asset/hl-moodeng/risk · same metrics, JSON