HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MNT

MNT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mnt · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.70%
realized vol (ann.)
38.02%
max drawdown
0.89%
sharpe
0.12
ulcer index
0.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
9.18
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
5.82
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.70%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +2.70%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-mnt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH665ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.559
24h Δ · live
2.70%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
MNT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.5542 · σ=0.0047 · range [0.5462, 0.5625] · R²=0.785▲ RISING +2.29%σ LOW 0.85%LAST 0.55870.56250.55840.55430.55020.5462μ = 0.5542max 0.5625min 0.5462dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.56
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=490,216 · μ=19608.6 · σ=19513.6 · CV=1.00BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13022,76445,52768,29191,055μ = 1960991,054.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 91055 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
665ms
$mark $
$0.5586
$mid $
$0.5586
◉prev-day close
$0.5439
Δ24h Δ %
+2.699%
$24h vol $
$271.37k
◐open interest $
$2.81M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.5542 · σ=0.0047 · range [0.5462, 0.5625] · R²=0.785▲ RISING +2.29%σ LOW 0.85%LAST 0.55870.56250.55840.55430.55020.5462μ = 0.5542max 0.5625min 0.5462dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.5586 · 24h 2.70% · range $[0.5462, 0.5625]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 18 · down 7 (72% up) · range [0.5436, 0.5635] · σ=0.0047 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%STRONG BULLISH +2.78%CLOSE 0.5587 vs OPEN 0.5436 (+2.78%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.55870.56350.55850.55350.54850.5436μ close = 0.5542O0.544 H0.546 L0.544 C0.546 (+0.48%)O0.544 H0.546 L0.544 C0.546 (+0.48%)O0.546 H0.548 L0.545 C0.546 (+0.09%)O0.546 H0.548 L0.545 C0.546 (+0.09%)O0.547 H0.548 L0.546 C0.547 (+0.15%)O0.547 H0.548 L0.546 C0.547 (+0.15%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.19%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.19%)O0.549 H0.549 L0.546 C0.547 (-0.29%)O0.549 H0.549 L0.546 C0.547 (-0.29%)O0.547 H0.549 L0.547 C0.548 (+0.08%)O0.547 H0.549 L0.547 C0.548 (+0.08%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.548 C0.550 (+0.33%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.548 C0.550 (+0.33%)O0.550 H0.554 L0.550 C0.553 (+0.53%)O0.550 H0.554 L0.550 C0.553 (+0.53%)O0.553 H0.555 L0.553 C0.555 (+0.42%)O0.553 H0.555 L0.553 C0.555 (+0.42%)O0.556 H0.556 L0.552 C0.556 (+0.12%)O0.556 H0.556 L0.552 C0.556 (+0.12%)O0.556 H0.558 L0.556 C0.557 (+0.19%)O0.556 H0.558 L0.556 C0.557 (+0.19%)O0.557 H0.558 L0.557 C0.557 (+0.03%)O0.557 H0.558 L0.557 C0.557 (+0.03%)O0.557 H0.558 L0.554 C0.555 (-0.49%)O0.557 H0.558 L0.554 C0.555 (-0.49%)O0.555 H0.556 L0.554 C0.555 (+0.07%)O0.555 H0.556 L0.554 C0.555 (+0.07%)O0.555 H0.557 L0.554 C0.556 (+0.30%)O0.555 H0.557 L0.554 C0.556 (+0.30%)O0.557 H0.557 L0.555 C0.556 (-0.09%)O0.557 H0.557 L0.555 C0.556 (-0.09%)O0.556 H0.556 L0.554 C0.555 (-0.23%)O0.556 H0.556 L0.554 C0.555 (-0.23%)O0.555 H0.555 L0.553 C0.554 (-0.15%)O0.555 H0.555 L0.553 C0.554 (-0.15%)O0.554 H0.557 L0.554 C0.555 (+0.14%)O0.554 H0.557 L0.554 C0.555 (+0.14%)O0.555 H0.557 L0.554 C0.557 (+0.41%)O0.555 H0.557 L0.554 C0.557 (+0.41%)O0.557 H0.560 L0.556 C0.559 (+0.29%)O0.557 H0.560 L0.556 C0.559 (+0.29%)0.7%O0.558 H0.563 L0.558 C0.562 (+0.74%)O0.558 H0.563 L0.558 C0.562 (+0.74%)O0.562 H0.563 L0.559 C0.559 (-0.57%)O0.562 H0.563 L0.559 C0.559 (-0.57%)O0.559 H0.562 L0.559 C0.560 (+0.24%)O0.559 H0.562 L0.559 C0.560 (+0.24%)O0.560 H0.561 L0.558 C0.559 (-0.29%)O0.560 H0.561 L0.558 C0.559 (-0.29%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=490,216 · μ=19608.6 · σ=19513.6 · CV=1.00BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13022,76445,52768,29191,055μ = 196093,824.4 · 4.2% peak3,824.4 · 4.2% peak19,547.5 · 21.5% peak19,547.5 · 21.5% peak4,324.2 · 4.7% peak4,324.2 · 4.7% peak10,928.3 · 12.0% peak10,928.3 · 12.0% peak39,972.1 · 43.9% peak39,972.1 · 43.9% peak34,714.7 · 38.1% peak34,714.7 · 38.1% peak10,489.6 · 11.5% peak10,489.6 · 11.5% peak14,929.3 · 16.4% peak14,929.3 · 16.4% peak10,604.9 · 11.6% peak10,604.9 · 11.6% peak37,218.2 · 40.9% peak37,218.2 · 40.9% peak6,595.8 · 7.2% peak6,595.8 · 7.2% peak32,241.2 · 35.4% peak32,241.2 · 35.4% peak32,980.7 · 36.2% peak32,980.7 · 36.2% peak13,544.8 · 14.9% peak13,544.8 · 14.9% peak6,551.8 · 7.2% peak6,551.8 · 7.2% peak10,545.8 · 11.6% peak10,545.8 · 11.6% peak3,370.2 · 3.7% peak3,370.2 · 3.7% peak5,236.5 · 5.8% peak5,236.5 · 5.8% peak3,391.4 · 3.7% peak3,391.4 · 3.7% peak4,835.1 · 5.3% peak4,835.1 · 5.3% peak91,054.691,054.6 · 100.0% peak91,054.6 · 100.0% peak14,388.1 · 15.8% peak14,388.1 · 15.8% peak34,443.6 · 37.8% peak34,443.6 · 37.8% peak9,450.8 · 10.4% peak9,450.8 · 10.4% peak35,032.2 · 38.5% peak35,032.2 · 38.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 490216 · peak 91055 · CV 1.00

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0008 · σ=0.0031 · skew=-0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.55 (mesokurtic)43210 2-52.32bpbin -52.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -52.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-42.14bp 2-31.96bpbin -31.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -31.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-21.78bpbin -21.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -21.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-11.60bpbin -11.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -11.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-1.42bpbin -1.42bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -1.42bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 48.76bpbin 8.76bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.76bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 418.94bpbin 18.94bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 18.94bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 229.12bpbin 29.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 29.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 239.30bpbin 39.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 39.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 149.48bpbin 49.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 49.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 259.66bpbin 59.66bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 59.66bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 16 · negative 7
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.36 · kurt=-0.41 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.5586
Mid price
$0.5586
24h change
+2.70%
Mark–mid spread
0.36 bps
Prev-day close
$0.5439

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.08)
μ MEAN0.5542$95% CI: [0.5523$, 0.5560$]
σ STD DEV0.0047$σ² = 0.224×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.85%
med MEDIAN0.5549$Q₁ 0.5497$ · Q₃ 0.5571$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0163$ · IQR 0.0074$ (1.349σ→0.0064$)
min 0.5462$Q₁ 0.5497$med 0.5549$Q₃ 0.5571$max 0.5625$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.374approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.083platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.44
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=28.18
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.094437%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.301
σᵣ STD / h0.313685%σ²ᵣ = 0.098×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.32×
σ ANNUALISED29.36%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.314%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)28.18excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)26.04strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.38approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.21mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+827.27%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.45%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.452%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.552%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.525%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.67%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.452%VaR₉₉−0.552%ES₉₅−0.525%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK56.25$
−0.67% drawdown over 3h
55.87$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.68% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
64.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.702 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.5627
Bollinger MA
$0.5559
Bollinger lower
$0.5491

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.065within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.046lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.824strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+9.163significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.824
H = 0.824STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.065k=2+0.046k=3-0.277k=4-0.185k=5-0.0820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$271.37k
Open interest (USD)
$2.81M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -0.57% · typical |Δ| 0.27%BULLISH SESSION +2.27%BEST+0.65%09hWORST-0.57%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.27%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.01%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.74%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.53%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.27%+2.94%0.00%0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.22% · 14h0.22% · 14h0.22%14h0.24% · 15h0.24% · 15h0.24%15h-0.31% · 16h-0.31% · 16h-0.31%16h0.12% · 17h0.12% · 17h0.12%17h0.37% · 18h0.37% · 18h0.37%18h0.56% · 19h0.56% · 19h0.56%19h0.49% · 20h0.49% · 20h0.49%20h0.15% · 21h0.15% · 21h0.15%21h0.14% · 22h0.14% · 22h0.14%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h-0.48% · 00h-0.48% · 00h-0.48%00h0.07% · 01h0.07% · 01h0.07%01h0.28% · 02h0.28% · 02h0.28%02h-0.07% · 03h-0.07% · 03h-0.07%03h-0.22% · 04h-0.22% · 04h-0.22%04h-0.13% · 05h-0.13% · 05h-0.13%05h0.12% · 06h0.12% · 06h0.12%06h0.41% · 07h0.41% · 07h0.41%07h0.31% · 08h0.31% · 08h0.31%08h0.65% · 09h0.65% · 09h0.65%09h★ BEST-0.57% · 10h-0.57% · 10h-0.57%10h▼ WORST0.19% · 11h0.19% · 11h0.19%11h-0.29% · 12h-0.29% · 12h-0.29%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.53%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 3BREADTH67% up · 29% down · 4% flat
16 up bars · 7 down · best 0.65% · worst -0.57% · typical |Δ| 0.267%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +2.28% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+2.28%MAX DD-0.68%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.98%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0228 · peak 1.0298 · range [1.0000, 1.0298]1.02981.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0298UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.68% · shallow0%-0.68%▼ TROUGH -0.68%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.68%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.54%bar 13-20 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.31%bar 5-6 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.68%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0228 (2.28%) · max DD -0.68% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=38.32 · σ=44.46PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 23.63 (-0.33σ vs μ)147.6273.810.00-73.81-147.62μ = 38.3241.7341.7363.9763.9772.3872.3867.7367.73147.62147.62123.69123.6936.7836.7819.5219.5210.8310.83-2.27-2.27-23.49-23.49-32.63-32.634.614.6124.8024.8026.0826.0853.6553.6528.0928.0941.3241.3223.6323.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 23.633 · range [-32.63, 147.62] · μ 38.319 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.7169 · σ=7.3256 · range [17.1420, 42.9421] · R²=0.208▲ RISING +92.13%σ EXTREME 26.43%LAST 42.942142.942136.492130.042023.592017.1420μ = 27.7169max 42.9421min 17.1420dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.94% · range [17.14%, 42.94%] · μ 27.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=0.115 · σ=0.267MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST -0.267 (-1.43σ vs μ)0.5850.2920.000-0.292-0.585μ = 0.115-0.192-0.1920.1580.1580.3450.3450.3030.3030.2620.2620.4690.4690.3270.3270.1280.1280.0230.023-0.118-0.118-0.126-0.1260.0250.0250.1810.1810.2360.2360.5850.5850.4030.403-0.233-0.233-0.324-0.324-0.267-0.267v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.267 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6319
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7291
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7416
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5894
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4909
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3758
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7071
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7633
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5924
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5536
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.180 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.02e-5 · top T=6.00h (27.0%) · top-3 cover 63.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.3e-52.5e-51.7e-58.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.97e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.97e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.98e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.98e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.32e-5 · 27.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.32e-5 · 27.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.40e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.48e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.48e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.58e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.58e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.41e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.41e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.57e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.57e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.36e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.36e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.92e-5 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.92e-5 · 15.6% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 27.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.228e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 49.57× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
49.57×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 13.31400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 13.31
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 462% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.14σ ann 31% · Sortino 9.89 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%363%727%1090%1453%1817%462.3%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)30.5%Ann. vol σ1513.8%Sharpe (ann)989.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.5310.5420.5530.5640.5750.586t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Snapshot age
665ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e3f778171386642646944c602b7fa295be3b02bed992962d1a3f1389d926742f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.52K
bid $3.65K · ask $2.87K
Depth within 10bp
$18.87K
bid $7.53K · ask $11.34K
Depth within 50bp
$67.30K
bid $20.81K · ask $46.49K
Mid price
0.558590
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.380
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.193
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mnt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5586891.78bp0.5586902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5588915.39bp0.55907010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.55937914.13bp0.55968020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.5584801.98bp0.5584004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.5581867.23bp0.55791013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.55793811.68bp0.55760020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-mnt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$490.22K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-mnt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.308 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
16 / 7
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$305.26K
real volume
Sell weight
$161.58K
real volume
Net delta
$143.68K
buyers net
Imbalance
30.78%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-mnt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 0.67% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.562470→0.5586800.674%1
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z0ms0.562470→0.5592500.572%1

/api/asset/hl-mnt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.54%
σ per bar = 0.000133
Mean return (annualised)
462.31%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.14
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.89%
peak 0.56 → trough 0.56 over 1422 bars

/api/asset/hl-mnt/risk · same metrics, JSON