HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MET

MET-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-met · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.45%
realized vol (ann.)
66.21%
max drawdown
1.35%
sharpe
-4.56
ulcer index
0.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.73%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-376.29
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-235.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.45%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.45%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-met/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.104
24h Δ · live
-1.45%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MET · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1050 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.1036, 0.1063] · R²=0.582▼ FALLING -1.05%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.10430.10630.10560.10490.10430.1036μ = 0.1050max 0.1063min 0.1036dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.10
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=919,192 · μ=36767.7 · σ=24112.2 · CV=0.66RISING +41% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14030,28760,57490,860121,147μ = 36768121,14750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 121147 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
$mark $
$0.1044
$mid $
$0.1045
◉prev-day close
$0.106
Δ24h Δ %
-1.453%
$24h vol $
$95.95k
◐open interest $
$1.13M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1050 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.1036, 0.1063] · R²=0.582▼ FALLING -1.05%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.10430.10630.10560.10490.10430.1036μ = 0.1050max 0.1063min 0.1036dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1044 · 24h -1.45% · range $[0.1036, 0.1063]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1033, 0.1068] · σ=0.0007 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -1.56%CLOSE 0.1043 vs OPEN 0.1060 (-1.56%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.10430.10680.10590.10510.10420.1033μ close = 0.1050O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.51%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.51%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.50%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.50%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.67%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.67%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.41%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.41%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.65%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.65%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.09%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.09%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.51%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.51%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.17%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.17%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.08%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.08%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.74%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.74%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.55%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.55%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.43%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.43%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.38%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.38%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.27%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.27%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.41%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (-0.41%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.32%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.105 C0.105 (+0.32%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.49%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.49%)O0.104 H0.106 L0.104 C0.105 (+0.83%)O0.104 H0.106 L0.104 C0.105 (+0.83%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.85%)O0.105 H0.106 L0.104 C0.105 (-0.85%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (-0.39%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (-0.39%)O0.104 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (+0.44%)O0.104 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (+0.44%)O0.104 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (-0.11%)O0.104 H0.105 L0.104 C0.104 (-0.11%)-0.9%O0.105 H0.105 L0.103 C0.104 (-0.95%)O0.105 H0.105 L0.103 C0.104 (-0.95%)O0.104 H0.104 L0.103 C0.104 (+0.06%)O0.104 H0.104 L0.103 C0.104 (+0.06%)O0.104 H0.104 L0.104 C0.104 (+0.38%)O0.104 H0.104 L0.104 C0.104 (+0.38%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=919,192 · μ=36767.7 · σ=24112.2 · CV=0.66RISING +41% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14030,28760,57490,860121,147μ = 3676827,759 · 22.9% peak27,759 · 22.9% peak25,679 · 21.2% peak25,679 · 21.2% peak18,588 · 15.3% peak18,588 · 15.3% peak45,557 · 37.6% peak45,557 · 37.6% peak33,498 · 27.7% peak33,498 · 27.7% peak10,391 · 8.6% peak10,391 · 8.6% peak46,530 · 38.4% peak46,530 · 38.4% peak29,450 · 24.3% peak29,450 · 24.3% peak23,927 · 19.8% peak23,927 · 19.8% peak33,215 · 27.4% peak33,215 · 27.4% peak44,524 · 36.8% peak44,524 · 36.8% peak42,548 · 35.1% peak42,548 · 35.1% peak73,242 · 60.5% peak73,242 · 60.5% peak19,626 · 16.2% peak19,626 · 16.2% peak31,526 · 26.0% peak31,526 · 26.0% peak14,127 · 11.7% peak14,127 · 11.7% peak38,424 · 31.7% peak38,424 · 31.7% peak121,147121,147 · 100.0% peak121,147 · 100.0% peak60,357 · 49.8% peak60,357 · 49.8% peak20,805 · 17.2% peak20,805 · 17.2% peak20,089 · 16.6% peak20,089 · 16.6% peak42,016 · 34.7% peak42,016 · 34.7% peak65,980 · 54.5% peak65,980 · 54.5% peak18,143 · 15.0% peak18,143 · 15.0% peak12,044 · 9.9% peak12,044 · 9.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 919192 · peak 121147 · CV 0.66

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0053 · skew=0.38 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.09 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 3-71.60bpbin -71.60bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -71.60bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-55.33bpbin -55.33bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -55.33bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-39.07bpbin -39.07bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -39.07bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-22.80bpbin -22.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -22.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-6.53bpbin -6.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -6.53bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 39.74bpbin 9.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 9.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak26.00bp 342.27bpbin 42.27bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 42.27bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 258.54bpbin 58.54bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 58.54bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 274.81bpbin 74.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 74.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak91.08bp 1107.34bpbin 107.34bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 107.34bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.44 · kurt=-0.81 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1044
Mid price
$0.1045
24h change
-1.45%
Mark–mid spread
3.35 bps
Prev-day close
$0.106

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1050$95% CI: [0.1047$, 0.1052$]
σ STD DEV0.0007$σ² = 0.005×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN0.1050$Q₁ 0.1045$ · Q₃ 0.1054$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0026$ · IQR 0.0009$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.1036$Q₁ 0.1045$med 0.1050$Q₃ 0.1054$max 0.1063$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.054approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.673mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.88
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-7.63
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.044096%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.082
σᵣ STD / h0.540685%σ²ᵣ = 0.292×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.26×
σ ANNUALISED50.61%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.541%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-7.63negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.07downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.47approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.71mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-386.28%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.722%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.783%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.766%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.48%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.722%VaR₉₉−0.783%ES₉₅−0.766%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK10.63$
−2.48% drawdown over 13h
10.36$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.55% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.314 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1061
Bollinger MA
$0.1048
Bollinger lower
$0.1035

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.245within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.237lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.906strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.655significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.906
H = 0.906STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.245k=2-0.237k=3-0.120k=4+0.136k=5-0.1590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.95k
Open interest (USD)
$1.13M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.08x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.15% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.46%MILD BEARISH -1.06%BEST+1.15%21hWORST-0.80%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.78%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.95%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.06%+0.77%-1.74%-0.59% · 13h-0.59% · 13h-0.59%13h0.79% · 14h0.79% · 14h0.79%14h0.54% · 15h0.54% · 15h0.54%15h-0.58% · 16h-0.58% · 16h-0.58%16h0.03% · 17h0.03% · 17h0.03%17h-0.58% · 18h-0.58% · 18h-0.58%18h0.08% · 19h0.08% · 19h0.08%19h-0.07% · 20h-0.07% · 20h-0.07%20h1.15% · 21h1.15% · 21h1.15%21h★ BEST-0.46% · 22h-0.46% · 22h-0.46%22h-0.80% · 23h-0.80% · 23h-0.80%23h▼ WORST-0.22% · 00h-0.22% · 00h-0.22%00h0.34% · 01h0.34% · 01h0.34%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h0.34% · 03h0.34% · 03h0.34%03h-0.42% · 04h-0.42% · 04h-0.42%04h0.69% · 05h0.69% · 05h0.69%05h-0.73% · 06h-0.73% · 06h-0.73%06h-0.39% · 07h-0.39% · 07h-0.39%07h0.35% · 08h0.35% · 08h0.35%08h-0.17% · 09h-0.17% · 09h-0.17%09h-0.65% · 10h-0.65% · 10h-0.65%10h0.17% · 11h0.17% · 11h0.17%11h0.51% · 12h0.51% · 12h0.51%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.95%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.15% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.460%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.09%)FINAL-1.09%MAX DD-2.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.76%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9891 · peak 1.0076 · range [0.9824, 1.0076]1.00760.9824break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0076UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.50% · moderate0%-2.50%▼ TROUGH -2.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.50%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.12%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.59%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9891 (-1.09%) · max DD -2.50% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-13.43 · σ=16.94UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -6.28 (+0.42σ vs μ)50.5225.260.00-25.26-50.52μ = -13.43-9.85-9.857.687.68-21.15-21.150.930.933.843.84-15.02-15.02-7.36-7.36-1.08-1.08-8.24-8.24-40.23-40.23-39.18-39.1811.5811.58-4.79-4.79-26.10-26.10-4.51-4.51-19.86-19.86-25.10-25.10-50.52-50.52-6.28-6.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -6.278 · range [-50.52, 11.58] · μ -13.434 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.4283 · σ=8.6984 · range [39.9671, 65.8988] · R²=0.179▼ FALLING -26.70%σ EXTREME 16.59%LAST 42.312965.898859.415952.933046.450039.9671μ = 52.4283max 65.8988min 39.9671dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.31% · range [39.97%, 65.90%] · μ 52.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.288 · σ=0.249MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.120 (+0.67σ vs μ)0.7640.3820.000-0.382-0.764μ = -0.288-0.177-0.1770.0400.040-0.551-0.551-0.077-0.077-0.366-0.366-0.092-0.092-0.038-0.038-0.062-0.062-0.111-0.111-0.047-0.047-0.324-0.324-0.726-0.726-0.764-0.764-0.559-0.559-0.513-0.513-0.512-0.512-0.292-0.292-0.180-0.180-0.120-0.120v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.120 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3997
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4967
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0572
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4095
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0888
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2589
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7285
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6698
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.492 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.06e-5 · top T=3.43h (21.1%) · top-3 cover 51.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.8e-55.8e-53.9e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.11e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.11e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.72e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.72e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.30e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.30e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.75e-5 · 21.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.75e-5 · 21.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.10e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.10e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.20e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.20e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.15e-5 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.15e-5 · 16.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 21.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.669e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-15.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -5.20400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -5.20
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -673% · APY -100% · Sharpe -10.18σ ann 66% · Sortino -5.95 · n 4999
-1221%-961%-701%-441%-181%79%-672.6%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)66.1%Ann. vol σ-1017.7%Sharpe (ann)-594.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0990.1010.1040.1060.1080.111t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
27df64c40fc53ccc37d239af8fc75d3ffd431e9ef96f1c2f562956eb157c5679 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.54K
bid $1.50K · ask $1.05K
Depth within 10bp
$7.20K
bid $2.81K · ask $4.39K
Depth within 50bp
$70.03K
bid $39.26K · ask $30.77K
Mid price
0.104470
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.124
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.250
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-met/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1045154.29bp0.1045202FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10459511.92bp0.1046609FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.10472124.00bp0.10489020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1044264.21bp0.1044202FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.10433512.93bp0.1043006FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.10417228.54bp0.10399020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-met/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$919.19K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-met/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.232 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$342.38K
real volume
Sell weight
$549.06K
real volume
Net delta
$206.68K
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.19%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-met/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.106260→0.1047001.468%3
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.105290→0.1041101.121%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.106220→0.1050301.120%5

/api/asset/hl-met/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
66.09%
σ per bar = 0.000288
Mean return (annualised)
-672.58%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.73%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.10 over 3177 bars

/api/asset/hl-met/risk · same metrics, JSON