HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEME

MEME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-meme · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 10.27%
realized vol (ann.)
231.14%
max drawdown
6.17%
sharpe
14.70
ulcer index
3.73%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.12%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
910.77
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
599.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
4.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
10.27%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-38.38%
signalLONGconfidence 48%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +10.27%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 32.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-meme/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
10.27%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
MEME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · R²=0.682▲ RISING +11.03%σ NORMAL 3.72%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ = 0.0006max 0.0006min 0.0006dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.4%Short fee 50.6%SHORT FEE50.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.004382% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=422,862,439 · μ=16914497.6 · σ=20645816.3 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=19020,290,00940,580,01860,870,02781,160,036μ = 1691449881,160,03650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 81160036 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.0006
$mid $
$0.0006
◉prev-day close
$0.0006
Δ24h Δ %
+10.265%
$24h vol $
$247.65k
◐open interest $
$398.46k
%funding (1h)
-0.004382%
%funding (yr)
-38.38%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · R²=0.682▲ RISING +11.03%σ NORMAL 3.72%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ = 0.0006max 0.0006min 0.0006dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0006 · 24h 10.27% · range $[0.0006, 0.0006]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [0.0006, 0.0006] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=64%STRONG BULLISH +10.44%CLOSE 0.0006 vs OPEN 0.0006 (+10.44%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00060.0006μ close = 0.0006O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.53%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.71%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.05%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.05%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.69%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.69%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.47%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.47%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.16%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.16%)4.0%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+4.01%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+4.01%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.16%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=422,862,439 · μ=16914497.6 · σ=20645816.3 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=19020,290,00940,580,01860,870,02781,160,036μ = 169144982,101,438 · 2.6% peak2,101,438 · 2.6% peak744,095 · 0.9% peak744,095 · 0.9% peak208,860 · 0.3% peak208,860 · 0.3% peak41,442,483 · 51.1% peak41,442,483 · 51.1% peak8,108,826 · 10.0% peak8,108,826 · 10.0% peak1,936,916 · 2.4% peak1,936,916 · 2.4% peak100,842 · 0.1% peak100,842 · 0.1% peak2,762,825 · 3.4% peak2,762,825 · 3.4% peak1,680,622 · 2.1% peak1,680,622 · 2.1% peak4,696,007 · 5.8% peak4,696,007 · 5.8% peak44,342,015 · 54.6% peak44,342,015 · 54.6% peak352,012 · 0.4% peak352,012 · 0.4% peak7,498,638 · 9.2% peak7,498,638 · 9.2% peak21,993,464 · 27.1% peak21,993,464 · 27.1% peak13,535,280 · 16.7% peak13,535,280 · 16.7% peak11,755,394 · 14.5% peak11,755,394 · 14.5% peak3,122,469 · 3.8% peak3,122,469 · 3.8% peak1,268,880 · 1.6% peak1,268,880 · 1.6% peak46,517,797 · 57.3% peak46,517,797 · 57.3% peak21,249,726 · 26.2% peak21,249,726 · 26.2% peak42,203,184 · 52.0% peak42,203,184 · 52.0% peak81,160,03681,160,036 · 100.0% peak81,160,036 · 100.0% peak29,057,723 · 35.8% peak29,057,723 · 35.8% peak29,296,582 · 36.1% peak29,296,582 · 36.1% peak5,726,325 · 7.1% peak5,726,325 · 7.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 422862439 · peak 81160036 · CV 1.22

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0044 · σ=0.0137 · skew=1.01 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 2-153.80bpbin -153.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -153.80bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-100.44bpbin -100.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -100.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 4-47.08bpbin -47.08bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -47.08bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 66.28bpbin 6.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 6.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 259.64bpbin 59.64bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 59.64bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3113.00bpbin 113.00bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 113.00bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3166.37bpbin 166.37bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 166.37bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak219.73bp273.09bp 1326.45bpbin 326.45bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 326.45bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak379.81bp 1433.17bpbin 433.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 433.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.13 · kurt=1.36 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0006
Mid price
$0.0006
24h change
+10.27%
Mark–mid spread
16.05 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0006

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.12)
μ MEAN0.0006$95% CI: [0.0006$, 0.0006$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.72%
med MEDIAN0.0006$Q₁ 0.0006$ · Q₃ 0.0006$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0006$Q₁ 0.0006$med 0.0006$Q₃ 0.0006$max 0.0006$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.121right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.176mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.53
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.20
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.08
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=27.86
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.436035%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.298
σᵣ STD / h1.464840%σ²ᵣ = 2.146×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.36×
σ ANNUALISED137.10%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.465%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)27.86excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)45.17strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.20right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.99leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.62
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3819.67%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.41%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.410%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.735%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.653%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.25%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.410%VaR₉₉−1.735%ES₉₅−1.653%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK0.06$
−3.25% drawdown over 2h
0.06$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
72.2 · overbought
Bollinger %B
0.996 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0006
Bollinger MA
$0.0006
Bollinger lower
$0.0005

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.126within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.335lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.769strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.020significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.769
H = 0.769STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.126k=2-0.335k=3+0.148k=4+0.233k=5+0.2080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.66very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$247.65k
Open interest (USD)
$398.46k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.62x
1h funding
-0.004382%
Funding (annualised)
-38.38%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.60% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 1.05%MILD BULLISH +10.46%BEST+4.60%11hWORST-1.80%09hTYPICAL |Δ|1.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+10.46%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.74% · Σ +5.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.70% · Σ +5.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +10.46%+10.46%-0.71%-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h-0.36% · 14h-0.36% · 14h-0.36%14h1.24% · 15h1.24% · 15h1.24%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.71% · 17h-0.71% · 17h-0.71%17h0.18% · 18h0.18% · 18h0.18%18h0.71% · 19h0.71% · 19h0.71%19h-0.89% · 20h-0.89% · 20h-0.89%20h0.36% · 21h0.36% · 21h0.36%21h-0.18% · 22h-0.18% · 22h-0.18%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.36% · 00h-0.36% · 00h-0.36%00h0.18% · 01h0.18% · 01h0.18%01h1.07% · 02h1.07% · 02h1.07%02h1.75% · 03h1.75% · 03h1.75%03h0.87% · 04h0.87% · 04h0.87%04h-0.87% · 05h-0.87% · 05h-0.87%05h1.55% · 06h1.55% · 06h1.55%06h1.70% · 07h1.70% · 07h1.70%07h3.47% · 08h3.47% · 08h3.47%08h-1.80% · 09h-1.80% · 09h-1.80%09h▼ WORST-1.50% · 10h-1.50% · 10h-1.50%10h4.60% · 11h4.60% · 11h4.60%11h★ BEST0.16% · 12h0.16% · 12h0.16%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.89%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 42% down · 4% flat
13 up bars · 10 down · best 4.60% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 1.051%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +10.74%FINAL+10.74%MAX DD-3.28%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+10.74%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1074 · peak 1.1074 · range [0.9927, 1.1074]1.10740.9927break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1074UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.28% · moderate0%-3.28%▼ TROUGH -3.28%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -3.28%bar 22-23 · 2 bars · recovered#2 -1.43%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -0.87%bar 18-18 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.28%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.1074 (10.74%) · max DD -3.28% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=28.11 · σ=38.08PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 39.44 (+0.30σ vs μ)96.0448.020.00-48.02-96.04μ = 28.11-7.85-7.8510.8210.820.000.00-21.26-21.26-13.34-13.345.115.11-9.97-9.97-31.37-31.3733.0533.0546.6546.6569.8069.8042.4742.4773.2473.2496.0496.0493.7393.7340.3640.3618.7618.7648.4648.4639.4439.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 39.444 · range [-31.37, 96.04] · μ 28.112 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=102.6326 · σ=64.8801 · range [41.4413, 245.2171] · R²=0.644▲ RISING +269.82%σ EXTREME 63.22%LAST 245.2171245.2171194.2732143.329292.385341.4413μ = 102.6326max 245.2171min 41.4413dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 245.22% · range [41.44%, 245.22%] · μ 102.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.166 · σ=0.330MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.300 (-0.41σ vs μ)0.6780.3390.000-0.339-0.678μ = -0.166-0.325-0.325-0.254-0.254-0.250-0.250-0.331-0.331-0.508-0.508-0.599-0.599-0.678-0.678-0.504-0.5040.0750.0750.4320.4320.5300.5300.1850.185-0.261-0.261-0.090-0.0900.1370.137-0.293-0.2930.0600.060-0.186-0.186-0.300-0.300v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.300 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.7291
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0077
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3681
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1935
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.3071
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9781
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7475
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0095
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1278
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.537 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.08e-4 · top T=4.00h (29.0%) · top-3 cover 58.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.2e-45.4e-43.6e-41.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.86e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.31e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.31e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.27e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.27e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.24e-4 · 29.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.24e-4 · 29.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.95e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.95e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.76e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.76e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.16e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.16e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.12e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.12e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 2.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 29.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.493e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.011%/barparametric μ/σ² 22.58× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
22.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.004% · annualized Sharpe 41.09400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.018
annualized 41.09
μ per barafter L
0.005%
σ per barafter L
0.25%
VaR 95%5%
0.50%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.57%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.87×0.94×1.01×1.08×1.14×1.21×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 44.11σ ann 195% · Sortino 20.07 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1059%2117%3176%4235%5293%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)195.3%Ann. vol σ4411.1%Sharpe (ann)2006.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.003% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
870f0d4a7596bd9d1cf647fb342b79cad06765069c7424990176f897ff389ce6 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$20.52K
bid $9.06K · ask $11.46K
Mid price
0.000624
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
32.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.020
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.013
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00062516.03bp0.0006251FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00062631.87bp0.0006273FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000636186.97bp0.00065020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00062316.03bp0.0006231FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00062236.14bp0.0006204FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000610221.17bp0.00059620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.382e-5
-0.00438% / hr
Annualised APR
-38.410%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
9.5d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
9.5d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE38.410%9.5d95.1d
SHORTPAY-38.410%9.5d95.1d

/api/asset/hl-meme/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$422.86M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.162 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$244.40M
real volume
Sell weight
$176.36M
real volume
Net delta
$68.04M
buyers net
Imbalance
16.17%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-meme/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.25% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 09:00:00Z1.0h0.000615→0.0005953.252%2
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.000566→0.0005591.237%3
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z2.0h0.000564→0.0005590.887%3

/api/asset/hl-meme/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
195.32%
σ per bar = 0.000852
Mean return (annualised)
8615.88%
μ per bar = 0.000016
Sharpe (rf=0)
44.11
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.17%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 958 bars

/api/asset/hl-meme/risk · same metrics, JSON