HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LTC

LTC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ltc · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.49%
realized vol (ann.)
30.70%
max drawdown
0.75%
sharpe
-16.32
ulcer index
0.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.30%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1341.39
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-716.39
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.49%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.56%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ltc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH198ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$44.037
24h Δ · live
0.49%
24h vol · live
$1.8M
LTC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=44.0741 · σ=0.2329 · range [43.6180, 44.4280] · R²=0.213▲ RISING +0.17%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 44.042044.428044.225544.023043.820543.6180μ = 44.0741max 44.4280min 43.6180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $44.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.9%Short fee 53.1%SHORT FEE53.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000749% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=41,232 · μ=1649.3 · σ=1497.6 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1001,5973,1954,7926,390μ = 16496,389.5950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6390 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
198ms
$mark $
$44.037
$mid $
$44.0385
◉prev-day close
$43.824
Δ24h Δ %
+0.486%
$24h vol $
$1.81M
◐open interest $
$10.92M
%funding (1h)
0.000749%
%funding (yr)
+6.56%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=44.0741 · σ=0.2329 · range [43.6180, 44.4280] · R²=0.213▲ RISING +0.17%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 44.042044.428044.225544.023043.820543.6180μ = 44.0741max 44.4280min 43.6180dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $44.0370 · 24h 0.49% · range $[43.6180, 44.4280]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [43.5510, 44.6270] · σ=0.2329 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BULLISH +0.62%CLOSE 44.0420 vs OPEN 43.7700 (+0.62%)&#9650; CLOSE 44.042044.627044.358044.089043.820043.5510μ close = 44.0741O43.770 H43.969 L43.752 C43.968 (+0.45%)O43.770 H43.969 L43.752 C43.968 (+0.45%)O43.942 H44.002 L43.822 C43.885 (-0.13%)O43.942 H44.002 L43.822 C43.885 (-0.13%)O43.885 H43.942 L43.800 C43.870 (-0.03%)O43.885 H43.942 L43.800 C43.870 (-0.03%)O43.877 H44.111 L43.851 C44.036 (+0.36%)O43.877 H44.111 L43.851 C44.036 (+0.36%)O44.051 H44.051 L43.653 C43.789 (-0.59%)O44.051 H44.051 L43.653 C43.789 (-0.59%)O43.799 H43.845 L43.551 C43.618 (-0.41%)O43.799 H43.845 L43.551 C43.618 (-0.41%)O43.613 H43.764 L43.606 C43.640 (+0.06%)O43.613 H43.764 L43.606 C43.640 (+0.06%)O43.667 H43.839 L43.648 C43.767 (+0.23%)O43.667 H43.839 L43.648 C43.767 (+0.23%)O43.782 H43.884 L43.696 C43.865 (+0.19%)O43.782 H43.884 L43.696 C43.865 (+0.19%)0.7%O43.882 H44.361 L43.879 C44.209 (+0.75%)O43.882 H44.361 L43.879 C44.209 (+0.75%)O44.222 H44.338 L44.144 C44.319 (+0.22%)O44.222 H44.338 L44.144 C44.319 (+0.22%)O44.321 H44.367 L44.231 C44.323 (+0.00%)O44.321 H44.367 L44.231 C44.323 (+0.00%)O44.323 H44.497 L44.266 C44.411 (+0.20%)O44.323 H44.497 L44.266 C44.411 (+0.20%)O44.415 H44.627 L44.336 C44.377 (-0.09%)O44.415 H44.627 L44.336 C44.377 (-0.09%)O44.382 H44.478 L44.271 C44.354 (-0.06%)O44.382 H44.478 L44.271 C44.354 (-0.06%)O44.342 H44.466 L44.261 C44.428 (+0.19%)O44.342 H44.466 L44.261 C44.428 (+0.19%)O44.444 H44.457 L44.091 C44.151 (-0.66%)O44.444 H44.457 L44.091 C44.151 (-0.66%)O44.147 H44.176 L43.970 C44.142 (-0.01%)O44.147 H44.176 L43.970 C44.142 (-0.01%)O44.135 H44.250 L44.101 C44.137 (+0.00%)O44.135 H44.250 L44.101 C44.137 (+0.00%)O44.125 H44.125 L43.888 C44.030 (-0.22%)O44.125 H44.125 L43.888 C44.030 (-0.22%)O44.048 H44.150 L43.988 C44.131 (+0.19%)O44.048 H44.150 L43.988 C44.131 (+0.19%)O44.133 H44.286 L44.009 C44.235 (+0.23%)O44.133 H44.286 L44.009 C44.235 (+0.23%)O44.236 H44.294 L44.067 C44.067 (-0.38%)O44.236 H44.294 L44.067 C44.067 (-0.38%)O44.056 H44.121 L43.962 C44.059 (+0.01%)O44.056 H44.121 L43.962 C44.059 (+0.01%)O44.054 H44.074 L44.017 C44.042 (-0.03%)O44.054 H44.074 L44.017 C44.042 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=41,232 · μ=1649.3 · σ=1497.6 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1001,5973,1954,7926,390μ = 16491,351.85 · 21.2% peak1,351.85 · 21.2% peak716.25 · 11.2% peak716.25 · 11.2% peak370.11 · 5.8% peak370.11 · 5.8% peak658.51 · 10.3% peak658.51 · 10.3% peak3,061.75 · 47.9% peak3,061.75 · 47.9% peak839.76 · 13.1% peak839.76 · 13.1% peak771.22 · 12.1% peak771.22 · 12.1% peak3,179.96 · 49.8% peak3,179.96 · 49.8% peak3,447.43 · 54.0% peak3,447.43 · 54.0% peak6,389.596,389.59 · 100.0% peak6,389.59 · 100.0% peak4,513.53 · 70.6% peak4,513.53 · 70.6% peak2,088.97 · 32.7% peak2,088.97 · 32.7% peak1,803.56 · 28.2% peak1,803.56 · 28.2% peak504.55 · 7.9% peak504.55 · 7.9% peak818.64 · 12.8% peak818.64 · 12.8% peak412.35 · 6.5% peak412.35 · 6.5% peak676.72 · 10.6% peak676.72 · 10.6% peak1,135.37 · 17.8% peak1,135.37 · 17.8% peak353.5 · 5.5% peak353.5 · 5.5% peak1,477.5 · 23.1% peak1,477.5 · 23.1% peak1,653.08 · 25.9% peak1,653.08 · 25.9% peak2,436.45 · 38.1% peak2,436.45 · 38.1% peak1,789.85 · 28.0% peak1,789.85 · 28.0% peak618.97 · 9.7% peak618.97 · 9.7% peak162.62 · 2.5% peak162.62 · 2.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 41232 · peak 6390 · CV 0.91

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0030 · skew=-0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=0.08 (mesokurtic)75420 2-56.68bpbin -56.68bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -56.68bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-44.96bpbin -44.96bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -44.96bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-33.24bpbin -33.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -33.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-21.52bpbin -21.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -21.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-9.80bpbin -9.80bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -9.80bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 71.93bpbin 1.93bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 1.93bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 113.65bpbin 13.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 13.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 625.37bpbin 25.37bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin 25.37bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak 137.09bpbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak48.81bp60.53bp 172.26bpbin 72.26bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 72.26bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.02 · kurt=0.43 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$44.037
Mid price
$44.0385
24h change
+0.49%
Mark–mid spread
0.34 bps
Prev-day close
$43.824

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN44.0741$95% CI: [43.9828$, 44.1654$]
σ STD DEV0.2329$σ² = 0.054 · CV = 0.53%
med MEDIAN44.0670$Q₁ 43.8850$ · Q₃ 44.2350$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.8100$ · IQR 0.3500$ (1.349σ→0.3142$)
min 43.6180$Q₁ 43.8850$med 44.0670$Q₃ 44.2350$max 44.4280$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.267approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.947mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.48
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.10
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.007007%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h0.311916%σ²ᵣ = 0.097×10⁻⁴ · CV = 44.52×
σ ANNUALISED29.19%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.312%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.10excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.24strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)64.66exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.83mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 64.66
EXPECTED EDGE+61.38%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.54%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.537%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.611%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.594%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.95%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.537%VaR₉₉−0.611%ES₉₅−0.594%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK4403.60$
−0.95% drawdown over 2h
4361.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.96% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.424 · within band
Bollinger upper
$44.5957
Bollinger MA
$44.1152
Bollinger lower
$43.6348

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.107within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.051lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.614persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.492significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.614
H = 0.614PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.107k=2-0.051k=3+0.195k=4-0.258k=5-0.2340+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.49)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.34moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.81M
Open interest (USD)
$10.92M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.000749%
Funding (annualised)
+6.56%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.202× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.601× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.800×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.78% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.23%MILD BULLISH +0.17%BEST+0.78%21hWORST-0.63%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.17%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.66%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.17%+1.04%-0.80%-0.19% · 13h-0.19% · 13h-0.19%13h-0.03% · 14h-0.03% · 14h-0.03%14h0.38% · 15h0.38% · 15h0.38%15h-0.56% · 16h-0.56% · 16h-0.56%16h-0.39% · 17h-0.39% · 17h-0.39%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h0.29% · 19h0.29% · 19h0.29%19h0.22% · 20h0.22% · 20h0.22%20h0.78% · 21h0.78% · 21h0.78%21h★ BEST0.25% · 22h0.25% · 22h0.25%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h0.20% · 00h0.20% · 00h0.20%00h-0.08% · 01h-0.08% · 01h-0.08%01h-0.05% · 02h-0.05% · 02h-0.05%02h0.17% · 03h0.17% · 03h0.17%03h-0.63% · 04h-0.63% · 04h-0.63%04h▼ WORST-0.02% · 05h-0.02% · 05h-0.02%05h-0.01% · 06h-0.01% · 06h-0.01%06h-0.24% · 07h-0.24% · 07h-0.24%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.24% · 09h0.24% · 09h0.24%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11h-0.04% · 12h-0.04% · 12h-0.04%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.78% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.227%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.16%FINAL+0.16%MAX DD-0.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0016 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9920, 1.0104]1.01040.9920break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.95% · shallow0%-0.95%▼ TROUGH -0.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.95%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -0.90%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.22%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0016 (0.16%) · max DD -0.95% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=9.87 · σ=46.13MIXED EDGELAST -13.59 (-0.51σ vs μ)105.5952.800.00-52.80-105.59μ = 9.87-34.96-34.96-11.32-11.32-0.46-0.4612.5312.5349.4349.4390.6590.65105.59105.5972.1372.1353.8853.8855.3955.39-19.91-19.91-21.53-21.53-35.77-35.77-44.51-44.51-25.15-25.15-20.92-20.92-12.01-12.01-11.86-11.86-13.59-13.59v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -13.594 · range [-44.51, 105.59] · μ 9.874 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=28.4352 · σ=6.7796 · range [13.0244, 45.6814] · R²=0.307▼ FALLING -25.99%σ EXTREME 23.84%LAST 23.142345.681437.517229.352921.188713.0244μ = 28.4352max 45.6814min 13.0244dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 23.14% · range [13.02%, 45.68%] · μ 28.44% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.140 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.270 (-0.55σ vs μ)0.4720.2360.000-0.236-0.472μ = -0.140-0.198-0.198-0.052-0.0520.0890.0890.3690.3690.1650.165-0.087-0.087-0.047-0.0470.0430.0430.1610.161-0.301-0.301-0.251-0.251-0.355-0.355-0.443-0.443-0.472-0.472-0.464-0.4640.0100.010-0.270-0.270-0.286-0.286-0.270-0.270v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.270 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6966
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3998
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3692
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4533
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5556
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.6469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3488
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0992
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.6415
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5212
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.195 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.81e-6 · top T=3.00h (29.0%) · top-3 cover 61.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-52.6e-51.7e-58.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.39e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.39e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.02e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.02e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.62e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.62e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.41e-5 · 29.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.41e-5 · 29.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.10e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.10e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.97e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.97e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 9.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 29.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.177e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-114.64×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -33.52400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -33.52
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -33.91σ ann 30% · Sortino -21.92 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4069%-3248%-2427%-1606%-785%35%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)29.6%Ann. vol σ-3391.1%Sharpe (ann)-2192.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
42.15742.97543.79344.61145.42946.247t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
198ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
672177113e20487ac2f1d9e8eff7c3e58bea25a4d6a9fb515f135a990179527e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,475HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.05

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$3.88K
bid $390 · ask $3.49K
Depth within 5bp
$39.87K
bid $16.91K · ask $22.95K
Depth within 10bp
$156.26K
bid $85.67K · ask $70.59K
Depth within 50bp
$160.08K
bid $85.67K · ask $74.40K
Mid price
44.038500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.071
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.317
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ltc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K44.04200.79bp44.04201FILLED
BUY$10.00K44.04611.73bp44.05004FILLED
BUY$100.00K44.06686.43bp44.088020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K44.03440.93bp44.03402FILLED
SELL$10.00K44.02542.97bp44.02207FILLED
SELL$100.00K44.00547.52bp43.995020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+7.492e-6
0.00075% / hr
Annualised APR
6.568%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
55.6d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
55.6d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.568%55.6d1.52y
SHORTRECEIVE6.568%55.6d1.52y

/api/asset/hl-ltc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$44.0000–$45.0000★17$27.49K
$43.0000–$44.00008$13.74K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ltc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.372 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$27.35K
real volume
Sell weight
$12.53K
real volume
Net delta
$14.83K
buyers net
Imbalance
37.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ltc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 0.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h44.0360→43.61800.949%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h44.4280→44.13700.655%3

/api/asset/hl-ltc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
29.58%
σ per bar = 0.000129
Mean return (annualised)
-1003.11%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-33.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.32%
peak 44.48 → trough 43.89 over 1922 bars

/api/asset/hl-ltc/risk · same metrics, JSON