HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LIT

LIT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-lit · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.49%
realized vol (ann.)
92.58%
max drawdown
1.55%
sharpe
11.93
ulcer index
0.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.60%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1572.85
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
823.53
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.49%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-lit/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH27ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.597
24h Δ · live
-0.49%
24h vol · live
$13.4M
LIT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.6102 · σ=0.0200 · range [1.5806, 1.6446] · R²=0.281▼ FALLING -0.14%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 1.59801.64461.62861.61261.59661.5806μ = 1.6102max 1.6446min 1.5806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.60
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,497,665 · μ=339906.6 · σ=762033.9 · CV=2.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140984,9091,969,8182,954,7273,939,636μ = 3399073,939,63650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3939636 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
27ms
$mark $
$1.5974
$mid $
$1.5974
◉prev-day close
$1.6052
Δ24h Δ %
-0.486%
$24h vol $
$13.42M
◐open interest $
$60.20M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.6102 · σ=0.0200 · range [1.5806, 1.6446] · R²=0.281▼ FALLING -0.14%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 1.59801.64461.62861.61261.59661.5806μ = 1.6102max 1.6446min 1.5806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.5974 · 24h -0.49% · range $[1.5806, 1.6446]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [1.5671, 1.6595] · σ=0.0200 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=38%BULLISH +0.26%CLOSE 1.5980 vs OPEN 1.5938 (+0.26%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.59801.65951.63641.61331.59021.5671μ close = 1.6102O1.594 H1.621 L1.585 C1.600 (+0.41%)O1.594 H1.621 L1.585 C1.600 (+0.41%)O1.600 H1.601 L1.582 C1.592 (-0.51%)O1.600 H1.601 L1.582 C1.592 (-0.51%)O1.593 H1.628 L1.587 C1.623 (+1.86%)O1.593 H1.628 L1.587 C1.623 (+1.86%)O1.625 H1.641 L1.618 C1.627 (+0.16%)O1.625 H1.641 L1.618 C1.627 (+0.16%)O1.627 H1.645 L1.611 C1.643 (+0.97%)O1.627 H1.645 L1.611 C1.643 (+0.97%)-2.2%O1.640 H1.643 L1.598 C1.604 (-2.20%)O1.640 H1.643 L1.598 C1.604 (-2.20%)O1.603 H1.637 L1.597 C1.627 (+1.47%)O1.603 H1.637 L1.597 C1.627 (+1.47%)O1.626 H1.659 L1.617 C1.634 (+0.52%)O1.626 H1.659 L1.617 C1.634 (+0.52%)O1.635 H1.643 L1.617 C1.634 (-0.01%)O1.635 H1.643 L1.617 C1.634 (-0.01%)O1.635 H1.654 L1.628 C1.645 (+0.61%)O1.635 H1.654 L1.628 C1.645 (+0.61%)O1.645 H1.658 L1.628 C1.631 (-0.83%)O1.645 H1.658 L1.628 C1.631 (-0.83%)O1.632 H1.649 L1.627 C1.632 (+0.00%)O1.632 H1.649 L1.627 C1.632 (+0.00%)O1.631 H1.648 L1.621 C1.621 (-0.63%)O1.631 H1.648 L1.621 C1.621 (-0.63%)O1.623 H1.653 L1.593 C1.603 (-1.24%)O1.623 H1.653 L1.593 C1.603 (-1.24%)O1.603 H1.615 L1.590 C1.612 (+0.56%)O1.603 H1.615 L1.590 C1.612 (+0.56%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.592 C1.596 (-0.98%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.592 C1.596 (-0.98%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.581 C1.591 (-0.34%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.581 C1.591 (-0.34%)O1.592 H1.605 L1.585 C1.596 (+0.26%)O1.592 H1.605 L1.585 C1.596 (+0.26%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.571 C1.581 (-0.92%)O1.596 H1.599 L1.571 C1.581 (-0.92%)O1.581 H1.589 L1.572 C1.581 (-0.03%)O1.581 H1.589 L1.572 C1.581 (-0.03%)O1.581 H1.595 L1.578 C1.588 (+0.46%)O1.581 H1.595 L1.578 C1.588 (+0.46%)O1.588 H1.588 L1.567 C1.585 (-0.21%)O1.588 H1.588 L1.567 C1.585 (-0.21%)O1.586 H1.610 L1.579 C1.600 (+0.93%)O1.586 H1.610 L1.579 C1.600 (+0.93%)O1.599 H1.613 L1.589 C1.612 (+0.82%)O1.599 H1.613 L1.589 C1.612 (+0.82%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.597 C1.598 (-0.87%)O1.612 H1.615 L1.597 C1.598 (-0.87%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,497,665 · μ=339906.6 · σ=762033.9 · CV=2.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140984,9091,969,8182,954,7273,939,636μ = 339907564,848 · 14.3% peak564,848 · 14.3% peak90,763 · 2.3% peak90,763 · 2.3% peak179,331 · 4.6% peak179,331 · 4.6% peak274,283 · 7.0% peak274,283 · 7.0% peak241,609 · 6.1% peak241,609 · 6.1% peak326,248 · 8.3% peak326,248 · 8.3% peak249,140 · 6.3% peak249,140 · 6.3% peak564,910 · 14.3% peak564,910 · 14.3% peak130,753 · 3.3% peak130,753 · 3.3% peak142,509 · 3.6% peak142,509 · 3.6% peak265,713 · 6.7% peak265,713 · 6.7% peak165,573 · 4.2% peak165,573 · 4.2% peak134,202 · 3.4% peak134,202 · 3.4% peak3,939,6363,939,636 · 100.0% peak3,939,636 · 100.0% peak151,892 · 3.9% peak151,892 · 3.9% peak70,787 · 1.8% peak70,787 · 1.8% peak189,850 · 4.8% peak189,850 · 4.8% peak17,459 · 0.4% peak17,459 · 0.4% peak64,660 · 1.6% peak64,660 · 1.6% peak103,744 · 2.6% peak103,744 · 2.6% peak56,460 · 1.4% peak56,460 · 1.4% peak159,854 · 4.1% peak159,854 · 4.1% peak133,343 · 3.4% peak133,343 · 3.4% peak190,715 · 4.8% peak190,715 · 4.8% peak89,383 · 2.3% peak89,383 · 2.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8497665 · peak 3939636 · CV 2.24

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0091 · skew=-0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.24 (mesokurtic)43210 1-219.23bpbin -219.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -219.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-183.35bp-147.46bp 3-111.57bpbin -111.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -111.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-75.69bpbin -75.69bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -75.69bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-39.80bpbin -39.80bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -39.80bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-3.92bpbin -3.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -3.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 431.97bpbin 31.97bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 31.97bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 367.86bpbin 67.86bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 67.86bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2103.74bpbin 103.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 103.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1139.63bpbin 139.63bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 139.63bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1175.51bpbin 175.51bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 175.51bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.27 · kurt=0.19 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.5974
Mid price
$1.5974
24h change
-0.49%
Mark–mid spread
0.31 bps
Prev-day close
$1.6052

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.41)
μ MEAN1.6102$95% CI: [1.6024$, 1.6181$]
σ STD DEV0.0200$σ² = 3.987×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.24%
med MEDIAN1.6041$Q₁ 1.5960$ · Q₃ 1.6272$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0640$ · IQR 0.0312$ (1.349σ→0.0269$)
min 1.5806$Q₁ 1.5960$med 1.6041$Q₃ 1.6272$max 1.6446$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.158approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.409platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.21
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-0.59
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.005993%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.006
σᵣ STD / h0.947622%σ²ᵣ = 0.898×10⁻⁴ · CV = 158.13×
σ ANNUALISED88.69%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.948%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-0.59negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-0.58downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-13.49drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.28approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.54mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.98
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -13.49
EXPECTED EDGE-52.50%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.11%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.114%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.087%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.753%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.89%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.114%VaR₉₉−2.087%ES₉₅−1.753%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK164.46$
−3.89% drawdown over 10h
158.06$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.87× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.368 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.6485
Bollinger MA
$1.6085
Bollinger lower
$1.5686

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.321within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.079lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.858strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.998significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.858
H = 0.858STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.321k=2+0.079k=3-0.006k=4-0.105k=5+0.1850+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$13.42M
Open interest (USD)
$60.20M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.22x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-0.667× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.334× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.167×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.93% · worst -2.37% · typical |Δ| 0.74%MILD BEARISH -0.14%BEST+1.93%14hWORST-2.37%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.74%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.40% · Σ -3.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.35% · Σ +2.76%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.14%+2.73%-1.24%-0.51% · 13h-0.51% · 13h-0.51%13h1.93% · 14h1.93% · 14h1.93%14h★ BEST0.25% · 15h0.25% · 15h0.25%15h0.94% · 16h0.94% · 16h0.94%16h-2.37% · 17h-2.37% · 17h-2.37%17h▼ WORST1.41% · 18h1.41% · 18h1.41%18h0.47% · 19h0.47% · 19h0.47%19h-0.01% · 20h-0.01% · 20h-0.01%20h0.63% · 21h0.63% · 21h0.63%21h-0.84% · 22h-0.84% · 22h-0.84%22h0.06% · 23h0.06% · 23h0.06%23h-0.65% · 00h-0.65% · 00h-0.65%00h-1.14% · 01h-1.14% · 01h-1.14%01h0.57% · 02h0.57% · 02h0.57%02h-0.99% · 03h-0.99% · 03h-0.99%03h-0.35% · 04h-0.35% · 04h-0.35%04h0.34% · 05h0.34% · 05h0.34%05h-0.95% · 06h-0.95% · 06h-0.95%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.48% · 08h0.48% · 08h0.48%08h-0.23% · 09h-0.23% · 09h-0.23%09h0.99% · 10h0.99% · 10h0.99%10h0.75% · 11h0.75% · 11h0.75%11h-0.90% · 12h-0.90% · 12h-0.90%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.76%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.93% · worst -2.37% · typical |Δ| 0.739%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.25%)FINAL-0.25%MAX DD-3.92%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.70%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9975 · peak 1.0270 · range [0.9868, 1.0270]1.02700.9868break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0270UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.92% · moderate0%-3.92%▼ TROUGH -3.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.92%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.37%bar 6-9 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.51%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.92%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9975 (-0.25%) · max DD -3.92% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-13.55 · σ=33.48MIXED EDGELAST 24.04 (+1.12σ vs μ)69.9534.970.00-34.97-69.95μ = -13.5516.4716.4727.1427.148.078.0712.4312.43-8.46-8.4635.4735.47-9.17-9.17-45.95-45.95-28.54-28.54-69.95-69.95-60.19-60.19-49.53-49.53-53.70-53.70-33.61-33.61-36.85-36.85-21.85-21.8514.3714.3722.3122.3124.0424.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 24.043 · range [-69.95, 35.47] · μ -13.553 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.8472 · σ=32.1426 · range [48.3170, 145.6267] · R²=0.604▼ FALLING -55.14%σ EXTREME 39.76%LAST 65.3319145.6267121.299396.971972.644448.3170μ = 80.8472max 145.6267min 48.3170dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 65.33% · range [48.32%, 145.63%] · μ 80.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.377 · σ=0.201MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.271 (+0.53σ vs μ)0.6200.3100.000-0.310-0.620μ = -0.377-0.507-0.507-0.395-0.395-0.546-0.546-0.545-0.545-0.331-0.331-0.028-0.028-0.366-0.366-0.114-0.114-0.412-0.412-0.620-0.620-0.600-0.600-0.447-0.447-0.620-0.620-0.544-0.544-0.198-0.198-0.429-0.429-0.263-0.2630.0700.070-0.271-0.271v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.271 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7365
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8932
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3461
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4571
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0525
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2184
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.629 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.11e-5 · top T=2.67h (22.2%) · top-3 cover 47.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.4e-41.8e-41.2e-46.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.96e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.96e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.47e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.47e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.67e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.67e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.58e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.58e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-4 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-4 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.52e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.52e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.15e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.15e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 11.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 22.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.094e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.26× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.26× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.26×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.26×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.13×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.07×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.3×0.7×1.0×1.3×1.6×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.10400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.10
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 20% · APY -17% · Sharpe 0.23σ ann 87% · Sortino 0.20 · n 4999
-20%5%30%55%80%105%19.8%APR (simple)-16.7%APY (compound)87.2%Ann. vol σ22.7%Sharpe (ann)20.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.5051.5401.5751.6101.6451.680t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
27ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3220d9c7185623ae7717d42744c83ab27ef35d3370995fbec6a989adfc260c23 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.16K
bid $1.63K · ask $527
Depth within 5bp
$8.13K
bid $4.77K · ask $3.36K
Depth within 10bp
$19.58K
bid $13.22K · ask $6.36K
Depth within 50bp
$74.46K
bid $44.91K · ask $29.55K
Mid price
1.597350
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.208
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.047
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-lit/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.59751.20bp1.59772FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.59856.98bp1.599211FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.599412.89bp1.600420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.59730.31bp1.59731FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.59664.40bp1.59609FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.595412.02bp1.594420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-lit/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$8.50M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-lit/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.403 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.37M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.57M
real volume
Net delta
$3.20M
sellers net
Imbalance
-40.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
40.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-lit/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.89% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z9.0h1.6446→1.58063.892%10
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h1.6426→1.60412.344%2
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms1.6124→1.59800.893%1

/api/asset/hl-lit/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
87.18%
σ per bar = 0.000380
Mean return (annualised)
19.75%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.33%
peak 1.60 → trough 1.57 over 2147 bars

/api/asset/hl-lit/risk · same metrics, JSON