HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LINEA

LINEA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-linea · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.82%
realized vol (ann.)
61.83%
max drawdown
1.19%
sharpe
8.48
ulcer index
0.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
762.68
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
476.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.82%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.82%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-linea/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH230ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
-4.82%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
LINEA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0025 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · R²=0.893▼ FALLING -3.09%σ NORMAL 1.53%LAST 0.00250.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ = 0.0025max 0.0026min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=77,140,967 · μ=3085638.7 · σ=2144905.0 · CV=0.70STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1002,172,3014,344,6026,516,9028,689,203μ = 30856398,689,20350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8689203 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
230ms
$mark $
$0.0025
$mid $
$0.0025
◉prev-day close
$0.0026
Δ24h Δ %
-4.816%
$24h vol $
$194.62k
◐open interest $
$1.50M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0025 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · R²=0.893▼ FALLING -3.09%σ NORMAL 1.53%LAST 0.00250.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ = 0.0025max 0.0026min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0025 · 24h -4.82% · range $[0.0025, 0.0026]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -4.13%CLOSE 0.0025 vs OPEN 0.0026 (-4.13%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00250.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ close = 0.0025O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.07%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.07%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.08%)1.4%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.89%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.89%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.31%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.31%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.36%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.36%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.32%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.32%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.40%)O0.002 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.002 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (-0.12%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (-0.12%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.24%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.24%)O0.002 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.08%)O0.002 H0.003 L0.002 C0.003 (+0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.32%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.32%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=77,140,967 · μ=3085638.7 · σ=2144905.0 · CV=0.70STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1002,172,3014,344,6026,516,9028,689,203μ = 30856398,689,2038,689,203 · 100.0% peak8,689,203 · 100.0% peak5,035,527 · 58.0% peak5,035,527 · 58.0% peak3,736,439 · 43.0% peak3,736,439 · 43.0% peak3,476,166 · 40.0% peak3,476,166 · 40.0% peak5,974,250 · 68.8% peak5,974,250 · 68.8% peak2,813,394 · 32.4% peak2,813,394 · 32.4% peak3,010,489 · 34.6% peak3,010,489 · 34.6% peak3,231,986 · 37.2% peak3,231,986 · 37.2% peak1,389,771 · 16.0% peak1,389,771 · 16.0% peak2,632,958 · 30.3% peak2,632,958 · 30.3% peak1,295,044 · 14.9% peak1,295,044 · 14.9% peak952,253 · 11.0% peak952,253 · 11.0% peak6,466,682 · 74.4% peak6,466,682 · 74.4% peak2,456,764 · 28.3% peak2,456,764 · 28.3% peak1,690,163 · 19.5% peak1,690,163 · 19.5% peak1,074,520 · 12.4% peak1,074,520 · 12.4% peak2,421,258 · 27.9% peak2,421,258 · 27.9% peak2,007,011 · 23.1% peak2,007,011 · 23.1% peak2,201,236 · 25.3% peak2,201,236 · 25.3% peak7,435,946 · 85.6% peak7,435,946 · 85.6% peak1,547,545 · 17.8% peak1,547,545 · 17.8% peak4,264,239 · 49.1% peak4,264,239 · 49.1% peak1,224,044 · 14.1% peak1,224,044 · 14.1% peak1,678,003 · 19.3% peak1,678,003 · 19.3% peak436,076 · 5.0% peak436,076 · 5.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 77140967 · peak 8689203 · CV 0.70

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0050 · skew=-0.04 (symmetric) · kurt=0.07 (mesokurtic)54310 1-124.48bpbin -124.48bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -124.48bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-103.60bp 2-82.71bpbin -82.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -82.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-61.83bpbin -61.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -61.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-40.94bpbin -40.94bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -40.94bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3-20.06bpbin -20.06bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -20.06bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 40.83bpbin 0.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 0.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 321.71bpbin 21.71bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 21.71bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 442.60bpbin 42.60bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 42.60bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak63.48bp84.37bp 1105.25bpbin 105.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 105.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.05 · kurt=0.28 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0025
Mid price
$0.0025
24h change
-4.82%
Mark–mid spread
3.98 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0026

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN0.0025$95% CI: [0.0025$, 0.0026$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.53%
med MEDIAN0.0025$Q₁ 0.0025$ · Q₃ 0.0026$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0025$Q₁ 0.0025$med 0.0025$Q₃ 0.0026$max 0.0026$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.082approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.589platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.71
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.91
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.73
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.130730%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.243
σᵣ STD / h0.538266%σ²ᵣ = 0.290×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.12×
σ ANNUALISED50.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.538%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.73negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-20.83downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.06approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.64mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1145.19%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.90%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.902%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.253%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.140%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.33%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.902%VaR₉₉−1.253%ES₉₅−1.140%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK0.26$
−4.33% drawdown over 16h
0.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.53% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.307 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0026
Bollinger MA
$0.0025
Bollinger lower
$0.0025

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.273within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.201lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.900strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-13.833significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.900
H = 0.900STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.273k=2-0.201k=3+0.286k=4-0.153k=5-0.1510+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.83)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.83)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$194.62k
Open interest (USD)
$1.50M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.16% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -3.14%BEST+1.16%14hWORST-1.35%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.09%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.14%+0.77%-3.66%-0.46% · 13h-0.46% · 13h-0.46%13h1.16% · 14h1.16% · 14h1.16%14h★ BEST0.08% · 15h0.08% · 15h0.08%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.46% · 17h-0.46% · 17h-0.46%17h0.19% · 18h0.19% · 18h0.19%18h-0.93% · 19h-0.93% · 19h-0.93%19h0.47% · 20h0.47% · 20h0.47%20h0.16% · 21h0.16% · 21h0.16%21h-0.74% · 22h-0.74% · 22h-0.74%22h-0.27% · 23h-0.27% · 23h-0.27%23h-0.47% · 00h-0.47% · 00h-0.47%00h-0.55% · 01h-0.55% · 01h-0.55%01h0.32% · 02h0.32% · 02h0.32%02h-0.04% · 03h-0.04% · 03h-0.04%03h-1.35% · 04h-1.35% · 04h-1.35%04h▼ WORST0.48% · 05h0.48% · 05h0.48%05h-0.28% · 06h-0.28% · 06h-0.28%06h-0.44% · 07h-0.44% · 07h-0.44%07h0.36% · 08h0.36% · 08h0.36%08h-0.20% · 09h-0.20% · 09h-0.20%09h-0.08% · 10h-0.08% · 10h-0.08%10h0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h0.40% · 12h0.40% · 12h0.40%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.29%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.16% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.434%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.12%)FINAL-3.12%MAX DD-4.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.76%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9688 · peak 1.0076 · range [0.9638, 1.0076]1.00760.9638break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0076UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.35% · moderate0%-4.35%▼ TROUGH -4.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.35%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.46%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9688 (-3.12%) · max DD -4.35% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-33.86 · σ=20.45UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 3.82 (+1.84σ vs μ)71.6735.830.00-35.83-71.67μ = -33.86-0.00-0.00-9.95-9.95-34.50-34.50-31.62-31.62-36.16-36.16-31.57-31.57-52.55-52.55-47.97-47.97-58.73-58.73-71.67-71.67-65.59-65.59-37.68-37.68-33.56-33.56-31.35-31.35-29.96-29.96-34.01-34.01-6.81-6.81-33.47-33.473.823.82v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.823 · range [-71.67, 3.82] · μ -33.859 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.1449 · σ=12.3355 · range [26.0923, 68.4721] · R²=0.142▼ FALLING -49.35%σ EXTREME 24.60%LAST 30.439268.472157.877247.282236.687326.0923μ = 50.1449max 68.4721min 26.0923dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.44% · range [26.09%, 68.47%] · μ 50.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.322 · σ=0.213MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.384 (-0.29σ vs μ)0.6400.3200.000-0.320-0.640μ = -0.322-0.167-0.167-0.018-0.018-0.640-0.640-0.399-0.399-0.507-0.507-0.442-0.442-0.249-0.2490.1710.171-0.344-0.3440.0420.042-0.123-0.123-0.460-0.460-0.506-0.506-0.433-0.433-0.523-0.523-0.425-0.425-0.358-0.358-0.362-0.362-0.384-0.384v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.384 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4237
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8091
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0777
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2138
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9211
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7811
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8708
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8303
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0672
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.443 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.85e-5 · top T=3.00h (48.6%) · top-3 cover 72.6%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈3.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.7e-41.2e-48.3e-54.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.72e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.72e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.08e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.08e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.84e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 48.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 48.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.08e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.08e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.55e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.55e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.08e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.08e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 5.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 48.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.423e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-36.04×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -20.44400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -20.44
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.51σ ann 57% · Sortino -9.97 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2461%-1955%-1449%-943%-438%68%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)56.9%Ann. vol σ-2050.7%Sharpe (ann)-997.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0020.0020.0020.0030.0030.003t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Snapshot age
230ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
79b07fe34ba9d9b119bde809a1ab69a10a1638444ccc72eeb7880d593eafbbf6 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$710
bid $379 · ask $331
Depth within 10bp
$961
bid $630 · ask $331
Depth within 50bp
$21.93K
bid $9.62K · ask $12.31K
Mid price
0.002511
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.150
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.122
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-linea/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00251410.98bp0.0025153FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00251724.00bp0.0025229FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00253596.66bp0.00256120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0025097.93bp0.0025083FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00250524.62bp0.00249810FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00249658.26bp0.00247720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-linea/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$77.14M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-linea/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.369 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$21.60M
real volume
Sell weight
$46.85M
real volume
Net delta
$25.24M
sellers net
Imbalance
-36.88%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
36.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-linea/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.01% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.002582→0.0025302.014%5
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.002610→0.0025661.686%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.002538→0.0024971.615%4

/api/asset/hl-linea/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
56.90%
σ per bar = 0.000248
Mean return (annualised)
-1166.80%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.05%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3205 bars

/api/asset/hl-linea/risk · same metrics, JSON