HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LDO

LDO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ldo · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.02%
realized vol (ann.)
36.81%
max drawdown
1.01%
sharpe
-16.66
ulcer index
0.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1204.01
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-655.31
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.02%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ldo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.261
24h Δ · live
-1.02%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
LDO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2633 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.2611, 0.2666] · R²=0.689▼ FALLING -1.40%σ LOW 0.51%LAST 0.26120.26660.26520.26390.26250.2611μ = 0.2633max 0.2666min 0.2611dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.26
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,285,696 · μ=51427.8 · σ=31123.2 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10029,71059,42089,130118,840μ = 51428118,839.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 118840 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
$mark $
$0.2612
$mid $
$0.2612
◉prev-day close
$0.2639
Δ24h Δ %
-1.016%
$24h vol $
$333.04k
◐open interest $
$4.64M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2633 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.2611, 0.2666] · R²=0.689▼ FALLING -1.40%σ LOW 0.51%LAST 0.26120.26660.26520.26390.26250.2611μ = 0.2633max 0.2666min 0.2611dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2612 · 24h -1.02% · range $[0.2611, 0.2666]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.2604, 0.2668] · σ=0.0013 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=33%BEARISH -0.99%CLOSE 0.2612 vs OPEN 0.2638 (-0.99%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.26120.26680.26520.26360.26200.2604μ close = 0.2633O0.264 H0.266 L0.263 C0.265 (+0.41%)O0.264 H0.266 L0.263 C0.265 (+0.41%)O0.265 H0.265 L0.264 C0.265 (-0.01%)O0.265 H0.265 L0.264 C0.265 (-0.01%)O0.265 H0.266 L0.264 C0.265 (+0.06%)O0.265 H0.266 L0.264 C0.265 (+0.06%)O0.265 H0.267 L0.263 C0.267 (+0.60%)O0.265 H0.267 L0.263 C0.267 (+0.60%)-1.1%O0.267 H0.267 L0.263 C0.264 (-1.07%)O0.267 H0.267 L0.263 C0.264 (-1.07%)O0.264 H0.265 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.16%)O0.264 H0.265 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.16%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.10%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.10%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.262 C0.263 (-0.06%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.262 C0.263 (-0.06%)O0.263 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (-0.02%)O0.263 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (-0.02%)O0.263 H0.265 L0.262 C0.265 (+0.58%)O0.263 H0.265 L0.262 C0.265 (+0.58%)O0.265 H0.265 L0.264 C0.264 (-0.30%)O0.265 H0.265 L0.264 C0.264 (-0.30%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.19%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.19%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (+0.00%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (+0.00%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.261 C0.264 (+0.21%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.261 C0.264 (+0.21%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.28%)O0.264 H0.264 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.28%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.263 C0.264 (+0.50%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.263 C0.264 (+0.50%)O0.264 H0.265 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.59%)O0.264 H0.265 L0.263 C0.263 (-0.59%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.261 C0.263 (+0.24%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.261 C0.263 (+0.24%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.262 C0.262 (-0.66%)O0.263 H0.264 L0.262 C0.262 (-0.66%)O0.261 H0.262 L0.261 C0.261 (-0.10%)O0.261 H0.262 L0.261 C0.261 (-0.10%)O0.261 H0.263 L0.261 C0.262 (+0.21%)O0.261 H0.263 L0.261 C0.262 (+0.21%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.260 C0.263 (+0.34%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.260 C0.263 (+0.34%)O0.263 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (-0.37%)O0.263 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (-0.37%)O0.262 H0.262 L0.261 C0.262 (+0.00%)O0.262 H0.262 L0.261 C0.262 (+0.00%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.261 C0.261 (-0.09%)O0.261 H0.261 L0.261 C0.261 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,285,696 · μ=51427.8 · σ=31123.2 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10029,71059,42089,130118,840μ = 5142864,706.6 · 54.4% peak64,706.6 · 54.4% peak64,412.5 · 54.2% peak64,412.5 · 54.2% peak84,950.8 · 71.5% peak84,950.8 · 71.5% peak61,926.2 · 52.1% peak61,926.2 · 52.1% peak108,846.8 · 91.6% peak108,846.8 · 91.6% peak109,613.5 · 92.2% peak109,613.5 · 92.2% peak51,262.7 · 43.1% peak51,262.7 · 43.1% peak45,480.8 · 38.3% peak45,480.8 · 38.3% peak29,643.2 · 24.9% peak29,643.2 · 24.9% peak68,152.8 · 57.3% peak68,152.8 · 57.3% peak15,988.9 · 13.5% peak15,988.9 · 13.5% peak22,995.8 · 19.4% peak22,995.8 · 19.4% peak44,559.2 · 37.5% peak44,559.2 · 37.5% peak83,646.2 · 70.4% peak83,646.2 · 70.4% peak11,362.5 · 9.6% peak11,362.5 · 9.6% peak14,821.4 · 12.5% peak14,821.4 · 12.5% peak47,745.1 · 40.2% peak47,745.1 · 40.2% peak55,735.8 · 46.9% peak55,735.8 · 46.9% peak47,941.4 · 40.3% peak47,941.4 · 40.3% peak20,991.1 · 17.7% peak20,991.1 · 17.7% peak28,176.3 · 23.7% peak28,176.3 · 23.7% peak118,839.6118,839.6 · 100.0% peak118,839.6 · 100.0% peak31,871.1 · 26.8% peak31,871.1 · 26.8% peak39,648 · 33.4% peak39,648 · 33.4% peak12,377.9 · 10.4% peak12,377.9 · 10.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1285696 · peak 118840 · CV 0.61

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0038 · skew=-0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.16 (mesokurtic)54310 1-96.52bpbin -96.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -96.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-82.92bp 1-69.33bpbin -69.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -69.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-55.73bpbin -55.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -55.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-42.14bpbin -42.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -42.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-28.54bpbin -28.54bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -28.54bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-14.95bpbin -14.95bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -14.95bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-1.35bpbin -1.35bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -1.35bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 112.24bpbin 12.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 12.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 325.84bpbin 25.84bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 25.84bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 139.43bpbin 39.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 39.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 353.03bpbin 53.03bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 53.03bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.46 · kurt=0.29 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2612
Mid price
$0.2612
24h change
-1.02%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2639

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2633$95% CI: [0.2627$, 0.2638$]
σ STD DEV0.0013$σ² = 0.018×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.51%
med MEDIAN0.2633$Q₁ 0.2626$ · Q₃ 0.2638$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0055$ · IQR 0.0012$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.2611$Q₁ 0.2626$med 0.2633$Q₃ 0.2638$max 0.2666$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.293approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.272mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.47
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.10
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.058602%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.153
σᵣ STD / h0.382712%σ²ᵣ = 0.146×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.53×
σ ANNUALISED35.82%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.383%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.50downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.49approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.66mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-513.35%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.64%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.639%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.944%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.840%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.04%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.639%VaR₉₉−0.944%ES₉₅−0.840%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK26.66$
−2.04% drawdown over 16h
26.11$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.48× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.09% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.107 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2648
Bollinger MA
$0.2628
Bollinger lower
$0.2608

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.388within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.028lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.768strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.142significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.768
H = 0.768STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.388k=2-0.028k=3-0.131k=4+0.079k=5-0.2850+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.14)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.14)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$333.04k
Open interest (USD)
$4.64M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.07x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.29%BEARISH SESSION -1.41%BEST+0.60%15hWORST-1.03%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.72%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.66%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.34%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.41%+0.62%-1.44%-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.12% · 14h0.12% · 14h0.12%14h0.60% · 15h0.60% · 15h0.60%15h★ BEST-1.03% · 16h-1.03% · 16h-1.03%16h▼ WORST-0.13% · 17h-0.13% · 17h-0.13%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h-0.02% · 19h-0.02% · 19h-0.02%19h-0.08% · 20h-0.08% · 20h-0.08%20h0.52% · 21h0.52% · 21h0.52%21h-0.29% · 22h-0.29% · 22h-0.29%22h-0.27% · 23h-0.27% · 23h-0.27%23h0.03% · 00h0.03% · 00h0.03%00h0.21% · 01h0.21% · 01h0.21%01h-0.22% · 02h-0.22% · 02h-0.22%02h0.48% · 03h0.48% · 03h0.48%03h-0.59% · 04h-0.59% · 04h-0.59%04h0.23% · 05h0.23% · 05h0.23%05h-0.65% · 06h-0.65% · 06h-0.65%06h-0.21% · 07h-0.21% · 07h-0.21%07h0.24% · 08h0.24% · 08h0.24%08h0.33% · 09h0.33% · 09h0.33%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.11% · 12h-0.11% · 12h-0.11%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.66%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH38% up · 58% down · 4% flat
9 up bars · 14 down · best 0.60% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.289%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.41%)FINAL-1.41%MAX DD-2.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.62%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9859 · peak 1.0062 · range [0.9855, 1.0062]1.00620.9855break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0062UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.06% · moderate0%-2.06%▼ TROUGH -2.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.06%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9859 (-1.41%) · max DD -2.06% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-13.18 · σ=11.02UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -9.60 (+0.32σ vs μ)33.5616.780.00-16.78-33.56μ = -13.18-17.11-17.11-14.76-14.76-21.12-21.12-24.29-24.29-2.34-2.34-9.26-9.26-5.82-5.825.935.93-1.10-1.10-3.23-3.23-14.94-14.945.445.44-18.00-18.00-33.56-33.56-16.35-16.35-23.07-23.07-18.23-18.23-28.99-28.99-9.60-9.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -9.599 · range [-33.56, 5.93] · μ -13.180 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.2055 · σ=8.5186 · range [25.9632, 49.8257] · R²=0.068▼ FALLING -47.37%σ EXTREME 22.90%LAST 26.177949.825743.860037.894431.928825.9632μ = 37.2055max 49.8257min 25.9632dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.18% · range [25.96%, 49.83%] · μ 37.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.348 · σ=0.225MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.267 (+0.36σ vs μ)0.7820.3910.000-0.391-0.782μ = -0.348-0.332-0.332-0.325-0.325-0.462-0.4620.0380.038-0.484-0.484-0.262-0.262-0.291-0.291-0.252-0.252-0.238-0.238-0.169-0.169-0.572-0.572-0.782-0.782-0.677-0.677-0.656-0.656-0.532-0.532-0.183-0.183-0.184-0.1840.0110.011-0.267-0.267v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.267 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4937
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.4721
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1866
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8658
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7805
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0079
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6228
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.506 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.79e-5 · top T=2.00h (42.9%) · top-3 cover 76.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.2e-56.9e-54.6e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.87e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.87e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.20e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.20e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.23e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.23e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.60e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.60e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.48e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.48e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.44e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.44e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.39e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.39e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.19e-5 · 42.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.19e-5 · 42.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.144e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-67.60×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -20.72400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -20.72
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.40σ ann 42% · Sortino -18.29 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3408%-2716%-2025%-1333%-641%50%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)42.0%Ann. vol σ-2840.2%Sharpe (ann)-1828.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2500.2550.2610.2660.2710.276t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cf7459974d70e64763250f2113b0098ff15b0795dfd4ecd5e9a1d7a6a4dd0f04 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$9.22K
bid $5.97K · ask $3.25K
Depth within 10bp
$39.66K
bid $30.15K · ask $9.52K
Depth within 50bp
$105.68K
bid $72.84K · ask $32.84K
Mid price
0.261180
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.380
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.295
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ldo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2612322.01bp0.2612402FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2613596.84bp0.26148012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.26153513.59bp0.26177020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2611242.14bp0.2611202FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2610534.86bp0.2609509FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.26088211.40bp0.26069020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ldo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.29M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ldo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.081 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$560.81K
real volume
Sell weight
$660.18K
real volume
Net delta
$99.37K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.14%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ldo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.21% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.264330→0.2611301.211%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.266580→0.2633901.197%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.264330→0.2627700.590%1

/api/asset/hl-ldo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
42.01%
σ per bar = 0.000183
Mean return (annualised)
-1193.31%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.86%
peak 0.27 → trough 0.26 over 2948 bars

/api/asset/hl-ldo/risk · same metrics, JSON