HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

KAS

KAS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-kas · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.47%
realized vol (ann.)
41.32%
max drawdown
0.83%
sharpe
-26.35
ulcer index
0.44%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2458.36
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1499.24
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.47%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-kas/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.032
24h Δ · live
-0.47%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
KAS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0315 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0312, 0.0317] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -0.48%σ LOW 0.51%LAST 0.03160.03170.03160.03140.03130.0312μ = 0.0315max 0.0317min 0.0312dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,268,314 · μ=210732.6 · σ=177900.1 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120226,051452,102678,152904,203μ = 210733904,20350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 904203 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.3s
$mark $
$0.0316
$mid $
$0.0316
◉prev-day close
$0.0317
Δ24h Δ %
-0.470%
$24h vol $
$165.49k
◐open interest $
$1.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0315 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0312, 0.0317] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -0.48%σ LOW 0.51%LAST 0.03160.03170.03160.03140.03130.0312μ = 0.0315max 0.0317min 0.0312dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0316 · 24h -0.47% · range $[0.0312, 0.0317]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0311, 0.0318] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=38%BEARISH -0.39%CLOSE 0.0316 vs OPEN 0.0317 (-0.39%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03160.03180.03160.03140.03130.0311μ close = 0.0315O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.09%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.09%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.32%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.32%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.51%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.51%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.54%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.54%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.57%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.57%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.07%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.07%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.68%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.68%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.17%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.17%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.49%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.49%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.10%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.10%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.06%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.06%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.02%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.02%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.15%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.15%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.44%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.44%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.01%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.01%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.70%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.70%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)-1.2%O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-1.16%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-1.16%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.52%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.52%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.49%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.49%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.19%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-0.19%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.04%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.04%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.08%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,268,314 · μ=210732.6 · σ=177900.1 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120226,051452,102678,152904,203μ = 21073376,244 · 8.4% peak76,244 · 8.4% peak60,601 · 6.7% peak60,601 · 6.7% peak170,138 · 18.8% peak170,138 · 18.8% peak270,159 · 29.9% peak270,159 · 29.9% peak283,863 · 31.4% peak283,863 · 31.4% peak85,398 · 9.4% peak85,398 · 9.4% peak904,203904,203 · 100.0% peak904,203 · 100.0% peak282,458 · 31.2% peak282,458 · 31.2% peak33,560 · 3.7% peak33,560 · 3.7% peak354,840 · 39.2% peak354,840 · 39.2% peak104,673 · 11.6% peak104,673 · 11.6% peak106,611 · 11.8% peak106,611 · 11.8% peak231,015 · 25.5% peak231,015 · 25.5% peak274,416 · 30.3% peak274,416 · 30.3% peak130,074 · 14.4% peak130,074 · 14.4% peak218,756 · 24.2% peak218,756 · 24.2% peak63,782 · 7.1% peak63,782 · 7.1% peak56,504 · 6.2% peak56,504 · 6.2% peak183,772 · 20.3% peak183,772 · 20.3% peak355,574 · 39.3% peak355,574 · 39.3% peak224,276 · 24.8% peak224,276 · 24.8% peak327,578 · 36.2% peak327,578 · 36.2% peak244,946 · 27.1% peak244,946 · 27.1% peak212,316 · 23.5% peak212,316 · 23.5% peak12,557 · 1.4% peak12,557 · 1.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5268314 · peak 904203 · CV 0.84

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0039 · skew=-0.77 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.32 (mesokurtic)54310 1-105.55bpbin -105.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -105.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-91.67bp-77.79bp 1-63.91bpbin -63.91bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -63.91bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-50.03bpbin -50.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -50.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-36.15bpbin -36.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -36.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-22.27bpbin -22.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -22.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-8.39bpbin -8.39bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -8.39bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 45.50bpbin 5.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 5.50bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 319.38bpbin 19.38bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 19.38bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 133.26bpbin 33.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 33.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 547.14bpbin 47.14bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 47.14bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.73 · kurt=0.39 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0316
Mid price
$0.0316
24h change
-0.47%
Mark–mid spread
2.85 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0317

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0315$95% CI: [0.0314$, 0.0316$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.51%
med MEDIAN0.0316$Q₁ 0.0314$ · Q₃ 0.0316$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0312$Q₁ 0.0314$med 0.0316$Q₃ 0.0316$max 0.0317$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.341approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.962mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-4.49
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.020018%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.048
σᵣ STD / h0.416925%σ²ᵣ = 0.174×10⁻⁴ · CV = 20.83×
σ ANNUALISED39.02%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.417%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-4.49negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-3.89downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-95.47drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.78left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.78mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.87
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -95.47
EXPECTED EDGE-175.35%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.67%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.671%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.026%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.910%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.84%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.671%VaR₉₉−1.026%ES₉₅−0.910%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK3.17$
−1.84% drawdown over 4h
3.12$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.35× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.53× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.87% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.615 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0318
Bollinger MA
$0.0315
Bollinger lower
$0.0312

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.141within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.277lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.017strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.306fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.017
H = 1.017STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.141k=2-0.277k=3+0.286k=4+0.010k=5-0.1290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$165.49k
Open interest (USD)
$1.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.14x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.54% · worst -1.12% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -0.48%BEST+0.54%04hWORST-1.12%06hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.48%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.56%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.42%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.48%+0.08%-1.78%-0.36% · 13h-0.36% · 13h-0.36%13h0.44% · 14h0.44% · 14h0.44%14h-0.54% · 15h-0.54% · 15h-0.54%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.09% · 17h-0.09% · 17h-0.09%17h-0.69% · 18h-0.69% · 18h-0.69%18h0.28% · 19h0.28% · 19h0.28%19h0.24% · 20h0.24% · 20h0.24%20h0.15% · 21h0.15% · 21h0.15%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h0.13% · 00h0.13% · 00h0.13%00h0.52% · 01h0.52% · 01h0.52%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h-0.09% · 03h-0.09% · 03h-0.09%03h0.54% · 04h0.54% · 04h0.54%04h★ BEST0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h-1.12% · 06h-1.12% · 06h-1.12%06h▼ WORST0.54% · 07h0.54% · 07h0.54%07h0.48% · 08h0.48% · 08h0.48%08h-0.18% · 09h-0.18% · 09h-0.18%09h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11h-0.13% · 12h-0.13% · 12h-0.13%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.56%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 0.54% · worst -1.12% · typical |Δ| 0.308%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.50%)FINAL-0.50%MAX DD-1.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.08%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9950 · peak 1.0008 · range [0.9823, 1.0008]1.00080.9823break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0008UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.84% · moderate0%-1.84%▼ TROUGH -1.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.84%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.36%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9950 (-0.50%) · max DD -1.84% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=13.65 · σ=46.47MIXED EDGELAST 27.69 (+0.30σ vs μ)111.0255.510.00-55.51-111.02μ = 13.65-66.46-66.46-37.10-37.10-48.79-48.79-23.86-23.86-4.56-4.56-0.28-0.28111.02111.0286.4186.4159.1259.1237.1937.1959.4159.4165.5365.53-2.70-2.70-2.19-2.1910.5210.528.238.23-9.04-9.04-10.80-10.8027.6927.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 27.693 · range [-66.46, 111.02] · μ 13.650 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.3342 · σ=16.0406 · range [10.7615, 60.6544] · R²=0.163▼ FALLING -21.39%σ EXTREME 41.84%LAST 30.656060.654448.181235.707923.234710.7615μ = 38.3342max 60.6544min 10.7615dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.66% · range [10.76%, 60.65%] · μ 38.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.130 · σ=0.241MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.307 (+1.82σ vs μ)0.4850.2430.000-0.243-0.485μ = -0.130-0.354-0.354-0.379-0.379-0.013-0.013-0.029-0.029-0.050-0.050-0.141-0.1410.4850.4850.1270.127-0.251-0.251-0.040-0.040-0.306-0.306-0.436-0.436-0.060-0.060-0.382-0.382-0.222-0.222-0.233-0.233-0.289-0.289-0.203-0.2030.3070.307v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.307 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.0637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2161
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7022
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3361
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2993
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6322
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2447
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2787
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0739
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2829
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.673 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.69e-5 · top T=3.00h (25.1%) · top-3 cover 55.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.1e-53.8e-52.5e-51.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.40e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.40e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.34e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.34e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.21e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.21e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.99e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.99e-5 · 19.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.08e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.08e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.50e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.50e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.17e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.55e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.55e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.84e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.84e-6 · 2.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 25.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.028e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 10.57× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
10.57×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.64× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 9.75400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.64× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 9.75
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.12%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 207% · APY 617% · Sharpe 4.68σ ann 44% · Sortino 3.51 · n 4999
0%148%296%444%592%741%206.8%APR (simple)617.1%APY (compound)44.2%Ann. vol σ467.6%Sharpe (ann)350.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0300.0310.0310.0320.0330.033t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:40 UTC
Snapshot age
5.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
db9e3b8e4e73556094cbd345356ab818e1d4d789e6842a4b75c54a917ec4eb10 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.32K
bid $638 · ask $683
Depth within 10bp
$5.81K
bid $3.77K · ask $2.04K
Depth within 50bp
$82.76K
bid $59.07K · ask $23.69K
Mid price
0.031576
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.399
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.276
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-kas/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0315873.46bp0.0315943FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03161813.43bp0.0316429FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03167731.87bp0.03177520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0315643.66bp0.0315563FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03151519.43bp0.03147812FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03146535.29bp0.03141020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-kas/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$5.27M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-kas/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.048 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.47M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.72M
real volume
Net delta
$251.74K
sellers net
Imbalance
-4.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-kas/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.84% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z3.0h0.031740→0.0311571.837%4
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.031735→0.0313801.119%2

/api/asset/hl-kas/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
44.22%
σ per bar = 0.000193
Mean return (annualised)
206.78%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.51%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 1557 bars

/api/asset/hl-kas/risk · same metrics, JSON