HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

JTO

JTO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-jto · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.13%
realized vol (ann.)
98.77%
max drawdown
3.87%
sharpe
-41.51
ulcer index
1.95%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2103.22
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1155.54
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.13%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.13%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-jto/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.540
24h Δ · live
-1.13%
24h vol · live
$1.5M
JTO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.5439 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.5343, 0.5515] · R²=0.025▼ FALLING -1.56%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.54010.55150.54720.54290.53860.5343μ = 0.5439max 0.5515min 0.5343dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.54
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,761,073 · μ=110442.9 · σ=100244.7 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10099,053198,106297,158396,211μ = 110443396,21150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 396211 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$0.5401
$mid $
$0.5402
◉prev-day close
$0.5463
Δ24h Δ %
-1.133%
$24h vol $
$1.48M
◐open interest $
$3.26M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.5439 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.5343, 0.5515] · R²=0.025▼ FALLING -1.56%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.54010.55150.54720.54290.53860.5343μ = 0.5439max 0.5515min 0.5343dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.5401 · 24h -1.13% · range $[0.5343, 0.5515]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.5305, 0.5550] · σ=0.0049 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BEARISH -1.25%CLOSE 0.5401 vs OPEN 0.5470 (-1.25%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.54010.55500.54890.54270.53660.5305μ close = 0.5439O0.547 H0.550 L0.544 C0.549 (+0.31%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.544 C0.549 (+0.31%)O0.548 H0.551 L0.548 C0.549 (+0.16%)O0.548 H0.551 L0.548 C0.549 (+0.16%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.545 C0.550 (+0.09%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.545 C0.550 (+0.09%)O0.549 H0.554 L0.549 C0.551 (+0.36%)O0.549 H0.554 L0.549 C0.551 (+0.36%)O0.551 H0.555 L0.540 C0.541 (-1.82%)O0.551 H0.555 L0.540 C0.541 (-1.82%)O0.541 H0.541 L0.533 C0.534 (-1.32%)O0.541 H0.541 L0.533 C0.534 (-1.32%)O0.534 H0.540 L0.534 C0.538 (+0.72%)O0.534 H0.540 L0.534 C0.538 (+0.72%)O0.538 H0.543 L0.538 C0.540 (+0.48%)O0.538 H0.543 L0.538 C0.540 (+0.48%)O0.542 H0.543 L0.537 C0.539 (-0.54%)O0.542 H0.543 L0.537 C0.539 (-0.54%)O0.539 H0.552 L0.536 C0.548 (+1.72%)O0.539 H0.552 L0.536 C0.548 (+1.72%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.544 C0.544 (-0.71%)O0.548 H0.550 L0.544 C0.544 (-0.71%)O0.543 H0.548 L0.543 C0.544 (+0.21%)O0.543 H0.548 L0.543 C0.544 (+0.21%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.538 C0.540 (-0.90%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.538 C0.540 (-0.90%)O0.540 H0.549 L0.538 C0.549 (+1.66%)O0.540 H0.549 L0.538 C0.549 (+1.66%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.541 C0.543 (-1.11%)O0.549 H0.551 L0.541 C0.543 (-1.11%)O0.542 H0.548 L0.542 C0.545 (+0.59%)O0.542 H0.548 L0.542 C0.545 (+0.59%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.540 C0.541 (-0.68%)O0.545 H0.545 L0.540 C0.541 (-0.68%)O0.541 H0.548 L0.540 C0.548 (+1.34%)O0.541 H0.548 L0.540 C0.548 (+1.34%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.546 C0.549 (+0.32%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.546 C0.549 (+0.32%)O0.550 H0.550 L0.544 C0.547 (-0.42%)O0.550 H0.550 L0.544 C0.547 (-0.42%)O0.547 H0.551 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.29%)O0.547 H0.551 L0.547 C0.549 (+0.29%)O0.549 H0.552 L0.545 C0.546 (-0.52%)O0.549 H0.552 L0.545 C0.546 (-0.52%)-1.9%O0.547 H0.550 L0.535 C0.536 (-1.89%)O0.547 H0.550 L0.535 C0.536 (-1.89%)O0.536 H0.539 L0.530 C0.538 (+0.41%)O0.536 H0.539 L0.530 C0.538 (+0.41%)O0.538 H0.540 L0.537 C0.540 (+0.43%)O0.538 H0.540 L0.537 C0.540 (+0.43%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,761,073 · μ=110442.9 · σ=100244.7 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10099,053198,106297,158396,211μ = 110443100,028 · 25.2% peak100,028 · 25.2% peak79,786 · 20.1% peak79,786 · 20.1% peak170,808 · 43.1% peak170,808 · 43.1% peak131,115 · 33.1% peak131,115 · 33.1% peak396,211396,211 · 100.0% peak396,211 · 100.0% peak69,405 · 17.5% peak69,405 · 17.5% peak99,746 · 25.2% peak99,746 · 25.2% peak19,933 · 5.0% peak19,933 · 5.0% peak82,408 · 20.8% peak82,408 · 20.8% peak384,248 · 97.0% peak384,248 · 97.0% peak121,158 · 30.6% peak121,158 · 30.6% peak32,980 · 8.3% peak32,980 · 8.3% peak192,584 · 48.6% peak192,584 · 48.6% peak30,044 · 7.6% peak30,044 · 7.6% peak39,123 · 9.9% peak39,123 · 9.9% peak42,922 · 10.8% peak42,922 · 10.8% peak22,753 · 5.7% peak22,753 · 5.7% peak68,876 · 17.4% peak68,876 · 17.4% peak40,348 · 10.2% peak40,348 · 10.2% peak44,723 · 11.3% peak44,723 · 11.3% peak20,975 · 5.3% peak20,975 · 5.3% peak99,271 · 25.1% peak99,271 · 25.1% peak182,126 · 46.0% peak182,126 · 46.0% peak196,729 · 49.7% peak196,729 · 49.7% peak92,773 · 23.4% peak92,773 · 23.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2761073 · peak 396211 · CV 0.91

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0088 · skew=-0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.32 (mesokurtic)65320 2-182.34bpbin -182.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -182.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-151.82bp 2-121.30bpbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-90.78bpbin -90.78bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -90.78bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-60.26bpbin -60.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -60.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-29.74bpbin -29.74bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -29.74bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 40.78bpbin 0.78bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 0.78bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 631.30bpbin 31.30bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 31.30bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 161.82bpbin 61.82bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 61.82bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak92.34bp 1122.86bpbin 122.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 122.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2153.38bpbin 153.38bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 153.38bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.14 · kurt=-0.23 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.5401
Mid price
$0.5402
24h change
-1.13%
Mark–mid spread
2.04 bps
Prev-day close
$0.5463

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.35)
μ MEAN0.5439$95% CI: [0.5420$, 0.5459$]
σ STD DEV0.0049$σ² = 0.241×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.90%
med MEDIAN0.5445$Q₁ 0.5401$ · Q₃ 0.5487$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0171$ · IQR 0.0085$ (1.349σ→0.0066$)
min 0.5343$Q₁ 0.5401$med 0.5445$Q₃ 0.5487$max 0.5515$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.237approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.350platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.49
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.43
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.065365%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.069
σᵣ STD / h0.950892%σ²ᵣ = 0.904×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.55×
σ ANNUALISED89.00%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.951%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.43negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.52downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.14approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.01mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-572.60%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.765%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.951%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.922%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.11%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.765%VaR₉₉−1.951%ES₉₅−1.922%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK55.15$
−3.11% drawdown over 2h
53.43$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.21% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.348 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.5522
Bollinger MA
$0.5429
Bollinger lower
$0.5337

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.288within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.047lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.767strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.763fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.767
H = 0.767STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.288k=2+0.047k=3-0.229k=4+0.180k=5-0.3860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.48M
Open interest (USD)
$3.26M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.45x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.229× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.615× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.807×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.69% · worst -1.98% · typical |Δ| 0.73%MILD BEARISH -1.57%BEST+1.69%21hWORST-1.98%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.57%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.83%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.57%+0.51%-2.65%0.12% · 13h0.12% · 13h0.12%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-1.98% · 16h-1.98% · 16h-1.98%16h▼ WORST-1.18% · 17h-1.18% · 17h-1.18%17h0.68% · 18h0.68% · 18h0.68%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h-0.32% · 20h-0.32% · 20h-0.32%20h1.69% · 21h1.69% · 21h1.69%21h★ BEST-0.76% · 22h-0.76% · 22h-0.76%22h0.16% · 23h0.16% · 23h0.16%23h-0.89% · 00h-0.89% · 00h-0.89%00h1.66% · 01h1.66% · 01h1.66%01h-1.12% · 02h-1.12% · 02h-1.12%02h0.45% · 03h0.45% · 03h0.45%03h-0.71% · 04h-0.71% · 04h-0.71%04h1.29% · 05h1.29% · 05h1.29%05h0.16% · 06h0.16% · 06h0.16%06h-0.31% · 07h-0.31% · 07h-0.31%07h0.24% · 08h0.24% · 08h0.24%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-1.87% · 10h-1.87% · 10h-1.87%10h0.34% · 11h0.34% · 11h0.34%11h0.36% · 12h0.36% · 12h0.36%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.53%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.69% · worst -1.98% · typical |Δ| 0.730%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.66%)FINAL-1.66%MAX DD-3.13%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.51%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9834 · peak 1.0051 · range [0.9736, 1.0051]1.00510.9736break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0051UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.13% · moderate0%-3.13%▼ TROUGH -3.13%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.13%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.13%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9834 (-1.66%) · max DD -3.13% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-2.48 · σ=21.08MIXED EDGELAST -30.35 (-1.32σ vs μ)35.0617.530.00-17.53-35.06μ = -2.48-29.86-29.86-24.48-24.48-30.35-30.35-7.95-7.958.068.0634.5934.594.974.9720.7620.769.059.05-7.30-7.30-6.63-6.639.009.0025.0125.01-4.25-4.2525.5725.575.685.68-13.54-13.54-35.06-35.06-30.35-30.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -30.352 · range [-35.06, 34.59] · μ -2.477 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=94.0774 · σ=16.3824 · range [64.1450, 124.2817] · R²=0.243▼ FALLING -17.15%σ EXTREME 17.41%LAST 79.4914124.2817109.247694.213479.179264.1450μ = 94.0774max 124.2817min 64.1450dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 79.49% · range [64.14%, 124.28%] · μ 94.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.366 · σ=0.311MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.128 (+0.76σ vs μ)0.7810.3910.000-0.391-0.781μ = -0.366-0.021-0.0210.0920.0920.0410.0410.1240.124-0.488-0.488-0.610-0.610-0.498-0.498-0.547-0.547-0.603-0.603-0.741-0.741-0.781-0.781-0.721-0.721-0.583-0.583-0.411-0.411-0.541-0.541-0.396-0.3960.1270.127-0.269-0.269-0.128-0.128v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.128 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0834
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.7789
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0809
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9181
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0444
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0930
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0251
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.688 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-4 · top T=2.00h (37.3%) · top-3 cover 65.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.8e-43.6e-42.4e-41.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.80e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.80e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.06e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.06e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.97e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.97e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 37.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 37.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 37.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.278e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-16.63×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.90
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.38σ ann 86% · Sortino -12.30 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1725%-1360%-994%-628%-262%104%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)86.4%Ann. vol σ-1437.8%Sharpe (ann)-1229.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.5100.5230.5360.5490.5620.574t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4bc3ca6b4f8c89dc54f7a4128de48e342190e1db57d45437376e187466d0eede · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.63K
bid $962 · ask $667
Depth within 10bp
$3.85K
bid $1.77K · ask $2.08K
Depth within 50bp
$146.95K
bid $123.81K · ask $23.13K
Mid price
0.540125
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.686
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.139
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jto/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5404155.36bp0.5406204FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.54077311.99bp0.54099010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.54111818.39bp0.54154020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.5399533.18bp0.5396103FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.53955610.53bp0.5395009FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.53950611.47bp0.5395009FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-jto/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.76M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-jto/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.061 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.41M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.25M
real volume
Net delta
$161.52K
buyers net
Imbalance
6.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-jto/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.551470→0.5343303.108%3
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.548730→0.5363502.256%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.547750→0.5396301.482%3

/api/asset/hl-jto/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
86.45%
σ per bar = 0.000377
Mean return (annualised)
-1242.94%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.87%
peak 0.55 → trough 0.53 over 1158 bars

/api/asset/hl-jto/risk · same metrics, JSON