HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IOTA

IOTA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-iota · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.75%
realized vol (ann.)
44.63%
max drawdown
1.05%
sharpe
71.00
ulcer index
0.57%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5513.51
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.98%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
3227.21
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.13
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.75%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-5.81%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-iota/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.046
24h Δ · live
-0.75%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
IOTA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0464 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0458, 0.0472] · R²=0.487▼ FALLING -1.00%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.04640.04720.04680.04650.04610.0458μ = 0.0464max 0.0472min 0.0458dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.5%Short fee 53.5%SHORT FEE53.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000663% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,300,205 · μ=92008.2 · σ=46154.8 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13047,08194,163141,244188,325μ = 92008188,32550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 188325 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2s
$mark $
$0.0464
$mid $
$0.0464
◉prev-day close
$0.0468
Δ24h Δ %
-0.751%
$24h vol $
$101.98k
◐open interest $
$225.30k
%funding (1h)
-0.000663%
%funding (yr)
-5.81%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0464 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0458, 0.0472] · R²=0.487▼ FALLING -1.00%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.04640.04720.04680.04650.04610.0458μ = 0.0464max 0.0472min 0.0458dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0464 · 24h -0.75% · range $[0.0458, 0.0472]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0456, 0.0474] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=54%BEARISH -0.84%CLOSE 0.0464 vs OPEN 0.0468 (-0.84%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.04640.04740.04690.04650.04600.0456μ close = 0.0464O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.16%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.16%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.45%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.45%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.50%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.50%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.76%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.76%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.91%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.91%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.32%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.32%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.04%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.04%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.53%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.53%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.96%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.96%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.51%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.51%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.27%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.27%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.20%)O0.046 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.20%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.80%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.80%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.19%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.19%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.45%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.45%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.39%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.24%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.24%)1.2%O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+1.17%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+1.17%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.72%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.72%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (-0.18%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.73%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.046 C0.046 (+0.73%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,300,205 · μ=92008.2 · σ=46154.8 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13047,08194,163141,244188,325μ = 92008185,986 · 98.8% peak185,986 · 98.8% peak103,133 · 54.8% peak103,133 · 54.8% peak83,568 · 44.4% peak83,568 · 44.4% peak73,414 · 39.0% peak73,414 · 39.0% peak129,078 · 68.5% peak129,078 · 68.5% peak88,796 · 47.2% peak88,796 · 47.2% peak53,238 · 28.3% peak53,238 · 28.3% peak106,241 · 56.4% peak106,241 · 56.4% peak37,798 · 20.1% peak37,798 · 20.1% peak188,325188,325 · 100.0% peak188,325 · 100.0% peak42,127 · 22.4% peak42,127 · 22.4% peak41,023 · 21.8% peak41,023 · 21.8% peak182,025 · 96.7% peak182,025 · 96.7% peak116,340 · 61.8% peak116,340 · 61.8% peak50,023 · 26.6% peak50,023 · 26.6% peak67,235 · 35.7% peak67,235 · 35.7% peak125,710 · 66.8% peak125,710 · 66.8% peak80,297 · 42.6% peak80,297 · 42.6% peak68,191 · 36.2% peak68,191 · 36.2% peak65,998 · 35.0% peak65,998 · 35.0% peak79,606 · 42.3% peak79,606 · 42.3% peak120,840 · 64.2% peak120,840 · 64.2% peak113,711 · 60.4% peak113,711 · 60.4% peak84,622 · 44.9% peak84,622 · 44.9% peak12,880 · 6.8% peak12,880 · 6.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2300205 · peak 188325 · CV 0.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0054 · skew=0.54 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.54 (mesokurtic)54310 1-88.01bpbin -88.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -88.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-69.63bpbin -69.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -69.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-51.25bpbin -51.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -51.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-32.87bpbin -32.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -32.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-14.49bpbin -14.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -14.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 33.89bpbin 3.89bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 3.89bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 222.27bpbin 22.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 22.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 240.65bpbin 40.65bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 40.65bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 159.03bpbin 59.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 59.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 177.41bpbin 77.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 77.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 195.79bpbin 95.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 95.79bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1114.17bpbin 114.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 114.17bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.55 · kurt=-0.28 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0464
Mid price
$0.0464
24h change
-0.75%
Mark–mid spread
0.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0468

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0464$95% CI: [0.0462$, 0.0465$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.78%
med MEDIAN0.0463$Q₁ 0.0461$ · Q₃ 0.0465$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0014$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0458$Q₁ 0.0461$med 0.0463$Q₃ 0.0465$max 0.0472$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.438approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.565mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.14
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.90
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.94
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.041727%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.074
σᵣ STD / h0.562365%σ²ᵣ = 0.316×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.48×
σ ANNUALISED52.63%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.562%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.94negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.86downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.59right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.05mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.13
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-365.53%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.753%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.925%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.870%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.00%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.753%VaR₉₉−0.925%ES₉₅−0.870%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK4.72$
−3.00% drawdown over 15h
4.58$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.10% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.695 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0467
Bollinger MA
$0.0462
Bollinger lower
$0.0457

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.166within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.074lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.979strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.669significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.979
H = 0.979STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.166k=2-0.074k=3+0.006k=4-0.024k=5-0.2070+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$101.98k
Open interest (USD)
$225.30k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.45x
1h funding
-0.000663%
Funding (annualised)
-5.81%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.23% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -1.00%BEST+1.23%09hWORST-0.97%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.19%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.86%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.66%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+0.70%-2.36%-0.30% · 13h-0.30% · 13h-0.30%13h0.48% · 14h0.48% · 14h0.48%14h0.52% · 15h0.52% · 15h0.52%15h-0.77% · 16h-0.77% · 16h-0.77%16h-0.97% · 17h-0.97% · 17h-0.97%17h▼ WORST-0.27% · 18h-0.27% · 18h-0.27%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.46% · 20h-0.46% · 20h-0.46%20h1.03% · 21h1.03% · 21h1.03%21h-0.56% · 22h-0.56% · 22h-0.56%22h0.34% · 23h0.34% · 23h0.34%23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h0.09% · 01h0.09% · 01h0.09%01h-0.67% · 02h-0.67% · 02h-0.67%02h-0.08% · 03h-0.08% · 03h-0.08%03h-0.27% · 04h-0.27% · 04h-0.27%04h-0.34% · 05h-0.34% · 05h-0.34%05h-0.39% · 06h-0.39% · 06h-0.39%06h0.19% · 07h0.19% · 07h0.19%07h-0.05% · 08h-0.05% · 08h-0.05%08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h★ BEST-0.65% · 10h-0.65% · 10h-0.65%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11h0.74% · 12h0.74% · 12h0.74%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.86%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.23% · worst -0.97% · typical |Δ| 0.450%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.03%)FINAL-1.03%MAX DD-3.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.69%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9897 · peak 1.0069 · range [0.9765, 1.0069]1.00690.9765break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0069UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.03% · moderate0%-3.03%▼ TROUGH -3.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.03%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.30%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9897 (-1.03%) · max DD -3.03% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-21.51 · σ=36.19MIXED EDGELAST 31.60 (+1.47σ vs μ)98.2149.100.00-49.10-98.21μ = -21.51-33.20-33.20-25.24-25.24-56.42-56.42-31.43-31.43-28.00-28.001.971.9716.2916.2918.6318.6312.2512.25-22.58-22.58-13.43-13.43-46.81-46.81-98.21-98.21-82.67-82.67-66.59-66.599.569.56-0.00-0.005.505.5031.6031.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.600 · range [-98.21, 31.60] · μ -21.515 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.6963 · σ=14.8669 · range [20.5188, 66.7187] · R²=0.070▲ RISING +8.22%σ EXTREME 29.92%LAST 62.557966.718755.168743.618732.068820.5188μ = 49.6963max 66.7187min 20.5188dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.56% · range [20.52%, 66.72%] · μ 49.70% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.236 · σ=0.329MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.461 (-0.69σ vs μ)0.7460.3730.000-0.373-0.746μ = -0.2360.2650.2650.3000.300-0.103-0.1030.0240.024-0.331-0.331-0.705-0.705-0.703-0.703-0.746-0.746-0.372-0.372-0.103-0.1030.1460.146-0.095-0.095-0.621-0.621-0.286-0.2860.0450.0450.0570.057-0.364-0.364-0.425-0.425-0.461-0.461v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.461 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4981
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3290
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1260
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2433
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5811
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0244
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8867
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3753
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.730 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.34e-5 · top T=3.00h (27.0%) · top-3 cover 59.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.1e-55.4e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.34e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.34e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.41e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.41e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.69e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.69e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.49e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.49e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 27.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 27.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.37e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.37e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.60e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.60e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.41e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.41e-5 · 18.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 27.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.007e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 16.93× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
16.93×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.05400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.05
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.15%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 352% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.72σ ann 46% · Sortino 6.24 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%351.9%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)45.6%Ann. vol σ771.9%Sharpe (ann)624.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0440.0450.0460.0470.0470.048t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
79a34cdc4b83936a460b4aedd69b8360b0318b328052658f4d92063ac5b31b0a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.62K
bid $1.57K · ask $1.05K
Depth within 10bp
$7.73K
bid $3.50K · ask $4.24K
Depth within 50bp
$18.24K
bid $8.87K · ask $9.37K
Mid price
0.046397
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.269
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.223
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-iota/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0464082.32bp0.0464082FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04649320.60bp0.04666812FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.046991127.96bp0.04743720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0463862.27bp0.0463862FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04630519.90bp0.04611314FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04603079.10bp0.04559520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-6.628e-6
-0.00066% / hr
Annualised APR
-5.810%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
62.9d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
62.9d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE5.810%62.9d1.72y
SHORTPAY-5.810%62.9d1.72y

/api/asset/hl-iota/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.30M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-iota/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.063 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$990.65K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.12M
real volume
Net delta
$132.91K
sellers net
Imbalance
-6.29%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-iota/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.44% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.047193→0.0460432.437%5
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z5.0h0.046581→0.0457751.730%6
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.046409→0.0460580.756%2

/api/asset/hl-iota/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
45.59%
σ per bar = 0.000199
Mean return (annualised)
351.94%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.72
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.60%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 1947 bars

/api/asset/hl-iota/risk · same metrics, JSON