HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IO

IO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-io · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.22%
realized vol (ann.)
158.02%
max drawdown
2.69%
sharpe
4.44
ulcer index
1.24%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
565.28
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
294.34
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
5.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.22%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-47.26%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change -6.22%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-io/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.176
24h Δ · live
-6.22%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
IO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1808 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.1750, 0.1882] · R²=0.821▼ FALLING -6.04%σ NORMAL 2.16%LAST 0.17640.18820.18490.18160.17830.1750μ = 0.1808max 0.1882min 0.1750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005394% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,218,268 · μ=168730.7 · σ=139868.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 168731649,047.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 649048 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
$mark $
$0.1763
$mid $
$0.1764
◉prev-day close
$0.188
Δ24h Δ %
-6.218%
$24h vol $
$742.06k
◐open interest $
$714.71k
%funding (1h)
-0.005394%
%funding (yr)
-47.26%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1808 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.1750, 0.1882] · R²=0.821▼ FALLING -6.04%σ NORMAL 2.16%LAST 0.17640.18820.18490.18160.17830.1750μ = 0.1808max 0.1882min 0.1750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1763 · 24h -6.22% · range $[0.1750, 0.1882]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1730, 0.1918] · σ=0.0039 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -4.26%CLOSE 0.1764 vs OPEN 0.1843 (-4.26%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.17640.19180.18710.18240.17770.1730μ close = 0.1808O0.184 H0.192 L0.184 C0.188 (+1.89%)O0.184 H0.192 L0.184 C0.188 (+1.89%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.37%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.37%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)-2.1%O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.177 (-0.61%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.177 (-0.61%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.34%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,218,268 · μ=168730.7 · σ=139868.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 168731331,376 · 51.1% peak331,376 · 51.1% peak192,893.5 · 29.7% peak192,893.5 · 29.7% peak169,758.7 · 26.2% peak169,758.7 · 26.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak649,047.9649,047.9 · 100.0% peak649,047.9 · 100.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak39,740.7 · 6.1% peak39,740.7 · 6.1% peak12,646.5 · 1.9% peak12,646.5 · 1.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4218268 · peak 649048 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0026 · σ=0.0086 · skew=-0.04 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.92 (mesokurtic)54310 1-193.31bpbin -193.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -193.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-165.66bpbin -165.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -165.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-138.00bpbin -138.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -138.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-110.34bpbin -110.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -110.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-82.68bpbin -82.68bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -82.68bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak-55.02bp 3-27.36bpbin -27.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -27.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 20.29bpbin 0.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 0.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 427.95bpbin 27.95bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 27.95bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 155.61bpbin 55.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 55.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 183.27bpbin 83.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 83.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3110.93bpbin 110.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 110.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.05 · kurt=-0.77 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1763
Mid price
$0.1764
24h change
-6.22%
Mark–mid spread
3.40 bps
Prev-day close
$0.188

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.09)
μ MEAN0.1808$95% CI: [0.1793$, 0.1823$]
σ STD DEV0.0039$σ² = 0.152×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.16%
med MEDIAN0.1805$Q₁ 0.1776$ · Q₃ 0.1837$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0132$ · IQR 0.0061$ (1.349σ→0.0053$)
min 0.1750$Q₁ 0.1776$med 0.1805$Q₃ 0.1837$max 0.1882$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.395approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.093platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.38
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-26.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.259750%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.279
σᵣ STD / h0.929399%σ²ᵣ = 0.864×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.58×
σ ANNUALISED86.99%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.929%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-26.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-22.17downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.05approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.66mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.85
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2275.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.739%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.006%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.930%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.00%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.739%VaR₉₉−2.006%ES₉₅−1.930%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK18.82$
−7.00% drawdown over 18h
17.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
34.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.238 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1851
Bollinger MA
$0.1794
Bollinger lower
$0.1737

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.031within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.273lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.965strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.284significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.965
H = 0.965STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.031k=2-0.273k=3-0.167k=4-0.302k=5-0.0490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.28)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.28)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$742.06k
Open interest (USD)
$714.71k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.04x
1h funding
-0.005394%
Funding (annualised)
-47.26%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -2.07% · typical |Δ| 0.79%MILD BEARISH -6.23%BEST+1.25%18hWORST-2.07%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.79%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.23%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.35% · Σ -2.84%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.03%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.23%+0.21%-7.05%0.21% · 13h0.21% · 13h0.21%13h-0.74% · 14h-0.74% · 14h-0.74%14h-0.25% · 15h-0.25% · 15h-0.25%15h-2.07% · 16h-2.07% · 16h-2.07%16h▼ WORST-0.93% · 17h-0.93% · 17h-0.93%17h1.25% · 18h1.25% · 18h1.25%18h★ BEST0.34% · 19h0.34% · 19h0.34%19h0.39% · 20h0.39% · 20h0.39%20h-0.35% · 21h-0.35% · 21h-0.35%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h-0.96% · 23h-0.96% · 23h-0.96%23h-1.02% · 00h-1.02% · 00h-1.02%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h1.24% · 02h1.24% · 02h1.24%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-1.79% · 04h-1.79% · 04h-1.79%04h0.84% · 05h0.84% · 05h0.84%05h-0.73% · 06h-0.73% · 06h-0.73%06h-1.46% · 07h-1.46% · 07h-1.46%07h0.46% · 08h0.46% · 08h0.46%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h1.19% · 10h1.19% · 10h1.19%10h-0.79% · 11h-0.79% · 11h-0.79%11h-0.37% · 12h-0.37% · 12h-0.37%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.03%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.25% · worst -2.07% · typical |Δ| 0.785%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.15%FINAL-6.15%MAX DD-7.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.21%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9385 · peak 1.0021 · range [0.9311, 1.0021]1.00210.9311break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0021UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.09% · significant0%-7.09%▼ TROUGH -7.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -7.09%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9385 (-6.15%) · max DD -7.09% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-25.58 · σ=20.51UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -10.61 (+0.73σ vs μ)76.3138.160.00-38.16-76.31μ = -25.58-35.32-35.32-33.03-33.03-17.20-17.20-18.53-18.53-6.93-6.93-7.34-7.34-61.66-61.66-76.31-76.31-37.37-37.37-29.63-29.63-35.63-35.63-8.91-8.91-5.14-5.14-23.35-23.35-38.62-38.62-33.91-33.919.519.51-16.00-16.00-10.61-10.61v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.608 · range [-76.31, 9.51] · μ -25.578 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=94.0501 · σ=15.2380 · range [57.5091, 115.0377] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -14.85%σ EXTREME 16.20%LAST 89.4103115.0377100.655586.273471.891257.5091μ = 94.0501max 115.0377min 57.5091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 89.41% · range [57.51%, 115.04%] · μ 94.05% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=0.033 · σ=0.305CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.148 (-0.59σ vs μ)0.6010.3000.000-0.300-0.601μ = 0.033-0.087-0.0870.1440.1440.2210.2210.2020.202-0.066-0.0660.4450.4450.5570.5570.1470.1470.2930.2930.4310.4310.1580.158-0.248-0.248-0.353-0.353-0.220-0.220-0.601-0.601-0.349-0.3490.0890.0890.0080.008-0.148-0.148v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.148 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4475
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7995
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.8900
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3167
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5913
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4899
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2264
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8428
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2310
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8173
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.930 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.28e-5 · top T=8.00h (25.0%) · top-3 cover 56.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.5e-41.9e-41.2e-46.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.13e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.13e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.49e-4 · 25.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.49e-4 · 25.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.91e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.91e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 17.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 17.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.46e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.46e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.31e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.31e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.39e-4 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.39e-4 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.37e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.37e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.87e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.87e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 25.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.935e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-19.65×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -22.58400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -22.58
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -23.80σ ann 121% · Sortino -25.62 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3075%-2431%-1787%-1143%-499%145%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)121.1%Ann. vol σ-2380.5%Sharpe (ann)-2562.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1670.1720.1760.1800.1840.188t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
07541ee65643441146a9b79a91ee1225b6fb8ded60f01c9f5ea66521be268807 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.89K
bid $2.59K · ask $3.29K
Depth within 10bp
$9.93K
bid $4.21K · ask $5.72K
Depth within 50bp
$29.07K
bid $14.44K · ask $14.63K
Mid price
0.176385
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.122
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.317
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-io/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1764664.61bp0.1764702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.17658711.45bp0.17680010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.17690329.36bp0.17775020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1763064.50bp0.1763003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.17616912.23bp0.17601014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.17604919.05bp0.17555020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.394e-5
-0.00539% / hr
Annualised APR
-47.288%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE47.288%7.7d77.2d
SHORTPAY-47.288%7.7d77.2d

/api/asset/hl-io/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-io/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.163 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.26M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.63M
real volume
Net delta
$635.06K
buyers net
Imbalance
16.34%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-io/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 14:00:00Z4.0h0.188190→0.1808203.916%5
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z3.0h0.184420→0.1782403.351%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z5.0h0.180610→0.1750203.095%6

/api/asset/hl-io/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
121.11%
σ per bar = 0.000528
Mean return (annualised)
-2883.06%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-23.80
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.92%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 2490 bars

/api/asset/hl-io/risk · same metrics, JSON