HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

INIT

INIT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-init · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.96%
realized vol (ann.)
76.52%
max drawdown
1.50%
sharpe
-1.18
ulcer index
0.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.68%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-118.13
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-73.38
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -2.96%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-init/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.058
24h Δ · live
-2.96%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
INIT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0589 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0581, 0.0600] · R²=0.793▼ FALLING -2.07%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.05810.06000.05960.05910.05860.0581μ = 0.0589max 0.0600min 0.0581dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,490,799 · μ=219632.0 · σ=289521.5 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170353,053706,1061,059,1591,412,212μ = 2196321,412,21250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1412212 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.4s
$mark $
$0.0582
$mid $
$0.0582
◉prev-day close
$0.0599
Δ24h Δ %
-2.959%
$24h vol $
$320.89k
◐open interest $
$224.54k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0589 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0581, 0.0600] · R²=0.793▼ FALLING -2.07%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.05810.06000.05960.05910.05860.0581μ = 0.0589max 0.0600min 0.0581dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0582 · 24h -2.96% · range $[0.0581, 0.0600]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0573, 0.0611] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -2.92%CLOSE 0.0581 vs OPEN 0.0599 (-2.92%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05810.06110.06020.05920.05830.0573μ close = 0.0589O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.09%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.09%)1.4%O0.059 H0.061 L0.059 C0.060 (+1.36%)O0.059 H0.061 L0.059 C0.060 (+1.36%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.96%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.96%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (+0.31%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (+0.31%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (-0.21%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.060 (-0.21%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.060 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.13%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.69%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.69%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.11%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.11%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.87%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.16%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.16%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.27%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.27%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.18%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.18%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.45%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.45%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.30%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (+0.30%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.28%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.28%)O0.058 H0.060 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.28%)O0.058 H0.060 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.28%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.58%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.059 C0.059 (-0.58%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.05%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+0.05%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.057 C0.059 (+0.41%)O0.059 H0.060 L0.057 C0.059 (+0.41%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.26%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.26%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.19%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.19%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.16%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.16%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.05%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.05%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.47%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.47%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,490,799 · μ=219632.0 · σ=289521.5 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170353,053706,1061,059,1591,412,212μ = 21963277,903 · 5.5% peak77,903 · 5.5% peak182,274 · 12.9% peak182,274 · 12.9% peak751,814 · 53.2% peak751,814 · 53.2% peak401,205 · 28.4% peak401,205 · 28.4% peak139,651 · 9.9% peak139,651 · 9.9% peak59,032 · 4.2% peak59,032 · 4.2% peak155,967 · 11.0% peak155,967 · 11.0% peak83,066 · 5.9% peak83,066 · 5.9% peak100,864 · 7.1% peak100,864 · 7.1% peak116,515 · 8.3% peak116,515 · 8.3% peak96,238 · 6.8% peak96,238 · 6.8% peak130,209 · 9.2% peak130,209 · 9.2% peak82,063 · 5.8% peak82,063 · 5.8% peak65,183 · 4.6% peak65,183 · 4.6% peak57,993 · 4.1% peak57,993 · 4.1% peak133,228 · 9.4% peak133,228 · 9.4% peak281,043 · 19.9% peak281,043 · 19.9% peak124,145 · 8.8% peak124,145 · 8.8% peak97,470 · 6.9% peak97,470 · 6.9% peak1,412,2121,412,212 · 100.0% peak1,412,212 · 100.0% peak207,630 · 14.7% peak207,630 · 14.7% peak129,159 · 9.1% peak129,159 · 9.1% peak315,650 · 22.4% peak315,650 · 22.4% peak234,982 · 16.6% peak234,982 · 16.6% peak55,303 · 3.9% peak55,303 · 3.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5490799 · peak 1412212 · CV 1.32

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0057 · skew=-0.07 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.48 (mesokurtic)54310 2-110.25bpbin -110.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -110.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-90.94bpbin -90.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -90.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-71.63bpbin -71.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -71.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-52.33bpbin -52.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -52.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-33.02bp 5-13.72bpbin -13.72bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -13.72bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 35.59bpbin 5.59bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 5.59bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 424.90bpbin 24.90bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 24.90bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 344.20bpbin 44.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 44.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak63.51bp82.81bp 2102.12bpbin 102.12bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 102.12bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.03 · kurt=-0.34 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0582
Mid price
$0.0582
24h change
-2.96%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0599

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0589$95% CI: [0.0587$, 0.0591$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.87%
med MEDIAN0.0590$Q₁ 0.0587$ · Q₃ 0.0594$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0019$ · IQR 0.0007$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0581$Q₁ 0.0587$med 0.0590$Q₃ 0.0594$max 0.0600$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.076approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.936mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.69
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.56
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.087171%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.145
σᵣ STD / h0.601696%σ²ᵣ = 0.362×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.90×
σ ANNUALISED56.32%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.602%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.56negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.67downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.04approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.12mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.93
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-763.62%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.128%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.190%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.179%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.17%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.128%VaR₉₉−1.190%ES₉₅−1.179%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK6.00$
−3.17% drawdown over 22h
5.81$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.118 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0596
Bollinger MA
$0.0588
Bollinger lower
$0.0579

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.604negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.233lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.763strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.382significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.763
H = 0.763STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.604k=2+0.233k=3-0.032k=4-0.100k=5+0.0030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.38)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.38)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$320.89k
Open interest (USD)
$224.54k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.43x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.12% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.47%MILD BEARISH -2.09%BEST+1.12%05hWORST-1.20%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.47%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.09%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.22%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.09%+1.13%-2.09%0.09% · 14h0.09% · 14h0.09%14h1.03% · 15h1.03% · 15h1.03%15h-0.96% · 16h-0.96% · 16h-0.96%16h0.40% · 17h0.40% · 17h0.40%17h-0.21% · 18h-0.21% · 18h-0.21%18h-0.23% · 19h-0.23% · 19h-0.23%19h-0.66% · 20h-0.66% · 20h-0.66%20h0.34% · 21h0.34% · 21h0.34%21h-0.70% · 22h-0.70% · 22h-0.70%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h0.36% · 00h0.36% · 00h0.36%00h0.29% · 01h0.29% · 01h0.29%01h-0.48% · 02h-0.48% · 02h-0.48%02h0.31% · 03h0.31% · 03h0.31%03h-1.16% · 04h-1.16% · 04h-1.16%04h1.12% · 05h1.12% · 05h1.12%05h★ BEST-0.58% · 06h-0.58% · 06h-0.58%06h-0.03% · 07h-0.03% · 07h-0.03%07h0.41% · 08h0.41% · 08h0.41%08h-1.20% · 09h-1.20% · 09h-1.20%09h▼ WORST0.19% · 10h0.19% · 10h0.19%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h-0.23% · 13h-0.23% · 13h-0.23%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.22%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.12% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.473%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.11%)FINAL-2.11%MAX DD-3.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.13%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9789 · peak 1.0113 · range [0.9789, 1.0113]1.01130.9789break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0113UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.20% · moderate0%-3.20%▼ TROUGH -3.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.20%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9789 (-2.11%) · max DD -3.20% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-19.19 · σ=17.45UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -24.98 (-0.33σ vs μ)63.8531.920.00-31.92-63.85μ = -19.192.862.86-13.48-13.48-38.54-38.54-35.35-35.35-63.85-63.85-33.94-33.94-15.24-15.24-10.50-10.50-11.76-11.76-20.76-20.768.558.55-9.83-9.83-16.26-16.261.261.26-24.52-24.52-1.86-1.86-37.05-37.05-19.36-19.36-24.98-24.98v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -24.984 · range [-63.85, 8.55] · μ -19.191 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=58.4877 · σ=14.7730 · range [35.9818, 85.7171] · R²=0.143▼ FALLING -15.88%σ EXTREME 25.26%LAST 52.838685.717173.283360.849448.415635.9818μ = 58.4877max 85.7171min 35.9818dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 52.84% · range [35.98%, 85.72%] · μ 58.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.516 · σ=0.187MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.608 (-0.50σ vs μ)0.7940.3970.000-0.397-0.794μ = -0.516-0.586-0.586-0.525-0.525-0.482-0.482-0.460-0.460-0.786-0.786-0.457-0.457-0.273-0.273-0.235-0.235-0.141-0.141-0.297-0.297-0.569-0.569-0.793-0.793-0.794-0.794-0.717-0.717-0.542-0.542-0.429-0.429-0.555-0.555-0.549-0.549-0.608-0.608v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.608 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0202
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9900
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.7607
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5589
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8354
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2888
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0221
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.304 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.93e-5 · top T=2.40h (29.4%) · top-3 cover 62.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-41.0e-46.9e-53.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.99e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.99e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.47e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.47e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.12e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.12e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.69e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.69e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.34e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.34e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.63e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.63e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.39e-4 · 29.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.39e-4 · 29.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.03e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.03e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 23.3% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 29.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.713e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.85× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.85×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.6×1.2×1.9×2.5×3.1×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.06400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.06
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -141% · APY -89% · Sharpe -1.09σ ann 129% · Sortino -0.99 · n 4999
-169%-104%-40%25%90%155%-140.9%APR (simple)-89.3%APY (compound)128.9%Ann. vol σ-109.3%Sharpe (ann)-98.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0550.0570.0580.0590.0610.062t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:27:57 UTC
Snapshot age
2.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:27:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a28b7efe1feb70abfba59d13e725ca13837f214624c9b5965b7cc2f9f1bdacdf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.38K
bid $2.02K · ask $1.36K
Depth within 50bp
$18.44K
bid $8.59K · ask $9.85K
Mid price
0.058172
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.030
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.168
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-init/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0582177.83bp0.0582223FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05832025.49bp0.05844620PARTIAL
BUY$100.00K0.05832025.49bp0.05844620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0581316.95bp0.0581303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05802325.60bp0.05787320PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.05802325.60bp0.05787320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-init/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$5.49M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-init/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.294 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.50M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.91M
real volume
Net delta
$1.59M
buyers net
Imbalance
29.40%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-init/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.56% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 20:00:00Z3.0h0.059697→0.0587651.561%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.059147→0.0583631.326%1
#32026-06-14 09:00:00Z2.0h0.058901→0.0581991.192%3

/api/asset/hl-init/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
128.93%
σ per bar = 0.000562
Mean return (annualised)
-140.89%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.94%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1582 bars

/api/asset/hl-init/risk · same metrics, JSON