HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ICP

ICP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-icp · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
147.67%
max drawdown
4.62%
sharpe
-46.08
ulcer index
2.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.08%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2677.50
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1551.33
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 37%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 7.8bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-icp/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.452
24h Δ · live
-0.00%
24h vol · live
$3.5M
ICP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.4946 · σ=0.0591 · range [2.4067, 2.6114] · R²=0.198▼ FALLING -0.76%σ NORMAL 2.37%LAST 2.45172.61142.56022.50912.45792.4067μ = 2.4946max 2.6114min 2.4067dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.45
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,395,916 · μ=55836.6 · σ=65345.8 · CV=1.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15076,280152,559228,839305,119μ = 55837305,118.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 305119 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
$mark $
$2.4516
$mid $
$2.4514
◉prev-day close
$2.4517
Δ24h Δ %
-0.004%
$24h vol $
$3.49M
◐open interest $
$2.64M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.4946 · σ=0.0591 · range [2.4067, 2.6114] · R²=0.198▼ FALLING -0.76%σ NORMAL 2.37%LAST 2.45172.61142.56022.50912.45792.4067μ = 2.4946max 2.6114min 2.4067dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.4516 · 24h -0.00% · range $[2.4067, 2.6114]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [2.3913, 2.6194] · σ=0.0591 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +0.22%CLOSE 2.4517 vs OPEN 2.4463 (+0.22%)&#9650; CLOSE 2.45172.61942.56242.50532.44832.3913μ close = 2.4946O2.446 H2.480 L2.446 C2.470 (+0.99%)O2.446 H2.480 L2.446 C2.470 (+0.99%)O2.467 H2.482 L2.446 C2.461 (-0.26%)O2.467 H2.482 L2.446 C2.461 (-0.26%)O2.462 H2.504 L2.455 C2.504 (+1.73%)O2.462 H2.504 L2.455 C2.504 (+1.73%)O2.504 H2.556 L2.503 C2.531 (+1.09%)O2.504 H2.556 L2.503 C2.531 (+1.09%)O2.538 H2.558 L2.490 C2.544 (+0.22%)O2.538 H2.558 L2.490 C2.544 (+0.22%)O2.543 H2.564 L2.500 C2.520 (-0.92%)O2.543 H2.564 L2.500 C2.520 (-0.92%)3.7%O2.517 H2.616 L2.509 C2.611 (+3.73%)O2.517 H2.616 L2.509 C2.611 (+3.73%)O2.610 H2.619 L2.557 C2.567 (-1.64%)O2.610 H2.619 L2.557 C2.567 (-1.64%)O2.568 H2.587 L2.533 C2.566 (-0.11%)O2.568 H2.587 L2.533 C2.566 (-0.11%)O2.566 H2.602 L2.545 C2.593 (+1.06%)O2.566 H2.602 L2.545 C2.593 (+1.06%)O2.601 H2.612 L2.578 C2.578 (-0.90%)O2.601 H2.612 L2.578 C2.578 (-0.90%)O2.574 H2.580 L2.497 C2.507 (-2.60%)O2.574 H2.580 L2.497 C2.507 (-2.60%)O2.507 H2.507 L2.475 C2.488 (-0.77%)O2.507 H2.507 L2.475 C2.488 (-0.77%)O2.489 H2.495 L2.434 C2.438 (-2.03%)O2.489 H2.495 L2.434 C2.438 (-2.03%)O2.436 H2.443 L2.428 C2.430 (-0.25%)O2.436 H2.443 L2.428 C2.430 (-0.25%)O2.429 H2.438 L2.419 C2.434 (+0.20%)O2.429 H2.438 L2.419 C2.434 (+0.20%)O2.437 H2.437 L2.400 C2.407 (-1.24%)O2.437 H2.437 L2.400 C2.407 (-1.24%)O2.403 H2.420 L2.391 C2.415 (+0.50%)O2.403 H2.420 L2.391 C2.415 (+0.50%)O2.417 H2.433 L2.401 C2.413 (-0.19%)O2.417 H2.433 L2.401 C2.413 (-0.19%)O2.414 H2.475 L2.399 C2.461 (+1.95%)O2.414 H2.475 L2.399 C2.461 (+1.95%)O2.461 H2.518 L2.456 C2.510 (+2.00%)O2.461 H2.518 L2.456 C2.510 (+2.00%)O2.510 H2.521 L2.463 C2.515 (+0.20%)O2.510 H2.521 L2.463 C2.515 (+0.20%)O2.517 H2.557 L2.492 C2.492 (-0.99%)O2.517 H2.557 L2.492 C2.492 (-0.99%)O2.490 H2.495 L2.448 C2.456 (-1.35%)O2.490 H2.495 L2.448 C2.456 (-1.35%)O2.455 H2.455 L2.437 C2.452 (-0.14%)O2.455 H2.455 L2.437 C2.452 (-0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,395,916 · μ=55836.6 · σ=65345.8 · CV=1.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15076,280152,559228,839305,119μ = 558378,809.4 · 2.9% peak8,809.4 · 2.9% peak20,039.8 · 6.6% peak20,039.8 · 6.6% peak21,286.7 · 7.0% peak21,286.7 · 7.0% peak33,558.2 · 11.0% peak33,558.2 · 11.0% peak42,497.5 · 13.9% peak42,497.5 · 13.9% peak35,954 · 11.8% peak35,954 · 11.8% peak28,773.3 · 9.4% peak28,773.3 · 9.4% peak75,788.9 · 24.8% peak75,788.9 · 24.8% peak153,314.1 · 50.2% peak153,314.1 · 50.2% peak38,333.6 · 12.6% peak38,333.6 · 12.6% peak20,203.4 · 6.6% peak20,203.4 · 6.6% peak71,695.9 · 23.5% peak71,695.9 · 23.5% peak109,563.3 · 35.9% peak109,563.3 · 35.9% peak35,895.3 · 11.8% peak35,895.3 · 11.8% peak14,557.3 · 4.8% peak14,557.3 · 4.8% peak19,225.6 · 6.3% peak19,225.6 · 6.3% peak5,185.3 · 1.7% peak5,185.3 · 1.7% peak18,812.1 · 6.2% peak18,812.1 · 6.2% peak9,813.2 · 3.2% peak9,813.2 · 3.2% peak128,494.5 · 42.1% peak128,494.5 · 42.1% peak305,118.5305,118.5 · 100.0% peak305,118.5 · 100.0% peak58,546.3 · 19.2% peak58,546.3 · 19.2% peak97,077.5 · 31.8% peak97,077.5 · 31.8% peak36,198.2 · 11.9% peak36,198.2 · 11.9% peak7,173.6 · 2.4% peak7,173.6 · 2.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1395916 · peak 305119 · CV 1.17

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0138 · skew=0.49 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.17 (mesokurtic)54310 1-251.66bpbin -251.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -251.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-198.76bpbin -198.76bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -198.76bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-145.86bpbin -145.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -145.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-92.96bpbin -92.96bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -92.96bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-40.06bpbin -40.06bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -40.06bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 512.83bpbin 12.83bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 12.83bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 165.73bpbin 65.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 65.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2118.63bpbin 118.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 118.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1171.53bpbin 171.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 171.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2224.43bpbin 224.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 224.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak277.33bp 1330.22bpbin 330.22bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 330.22bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.48 · kurt=0.21 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.4516
Mid price
$2.4514
24h change
-0.00%
Mark–mid spread
1.02 bps
Prev-day close
$2.4517

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.09)
μ MEAN2.4946$95% CI: [2.4714$, 2.5177$]
σ STD DEV0.0591$σ² = 34.960×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.37%
med MEDIAN2.4923$Q₁ 2.4517$ · Q₃ 2.5315$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2047$ · IQR 0.0798$ (1.349σ→0.0798$)
min 2.4067$Q₁ 2.4517$med 2.4923$Q₃ 2.5315$max 2.6114$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.277approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.092platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-2.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.031829%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h1.438190%σ²ᵣ = 2.068×10⁻⁴ · CV = 45.19×
σ ANNUALISED134.61%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.438%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-2.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.42downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-35.57drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.51right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.55mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.17
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -35.57
EXPECTED EDGE-278.82%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.97%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.969%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.605%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.398%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.84%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.969%VaR₉₉−2.605%ES₉₅−2.398%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK261.14$
−7.84% drawdown over 10h
240.67$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +8.51% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.341 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.6209
Bollinger MA
$2.4926
Bollinger lower
$2.3643

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.043within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.070lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.974strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.385significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.974
H = 0.974STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.043k=2+0.070k=3+0.064k=4-0.017k=5-0.2180+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.49M
Open interest (USD)
$2.64M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.32x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.539× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.769× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.385×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.57% · worst -2.78% · typical |Δ| 1.09%MILD BEARISH -0.76%BEST+3.57%18hWORST-2.78%23hTYPICAL |Δ|1.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.76%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.26% · Σ +2.06%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.97%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.76%+5.55%-2.62%-0.39% · 13h-0.39% · 13h-0.39%13h1.75% · 14h1.75% · 14h1.75%14h1.08% · 15h1.08% · 15h1.08%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h-0.96% · 17h-0.96% · 17h-0.96%17h3.57% · 18h3.57% · 18h3.57%18h★ BEST-1.71% · 19h-1.71% · 19h-1.71%19h-0.06% · 20h-0.06% · 20h-0.06%20h1.06% · 21h1.06% · 21h1.06%21h-0.58% · 22h-0.58% · 22h-0.58%22h-2.78% · 23h-2.78% · 23h-2.78%23h▼ WORST-0.77% · 00h-0.77% · 00h-0.77%00h-2.01% · 01h-2.01% · 01h-2.01%01h-0.35% · 02h-0.35% · 02h-0.35%02h0.18% · 03h0.18% · 03h0.18%03h-1.13% · 04h-1.13% · 04h-1.13%04h0.35% · 05h0.35% · 05h0.35%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h1.99% · 07h1.99% · 07h1.99%07h1.99% · 08h1.99% · 08h1.99%08h0.20% · 09h0.20% · 09h0.20%09h-0.93% · 10h-0.93% · 10h-0.93%10h-1.46% · 11h-1.46% · 11h-1.46%11h-0.18% · 12h-0.18% · 12h-0.18%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.06%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 3.57% · worst -2.78% · typical |Δ| 1.087%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.00%)FINAL-1.00%MAX DD-7.92%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.61%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9900 · peak 1.0561 · range [0.9724, 1.0561]1.05610.9724break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0561UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.92% · significant0%-7.92%▼ TROUGH -7.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -7.92%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.96%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.39%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.92%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9900 (-1.00%) · max DD -7.92% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-8.92 · σ=50.12MIXED EDGELAST 17.30 (+0.52σ vs μ)98.0949.050.00-49.05-98.09μ = -8.9253.3953.3934.6334.6320.4120.4120.2520.2510.8610.86-3.59-3.59-57.02-57.02-58.52-58.52-63.10-63.10-88.38-88.38-98.09-98.09-66.05-66.05-53.23-53.2314.1114.1141.4341.4341.7641.7646.3246.3218.1218.1217.3017.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 17.305 · range [-98.09, 53.39] · μ -8.916 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=132.6799 · σ=35.2742 · range [82.4571, 208.5201] · R²=0.396▼ FALLING -10.34%σ EXTREME 26.59%LAST 135.9874208.5201177.0043145.4886113.972882.4571μ = 132.6799max 208.5201min 82.4571dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 135.99% · range [82.46%, 208.52%] · μ 132.68% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.118 · σ=0.350CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.547 (+1.90σ vs μ)0.6150.3080.000-0.308-0.615μ = -0.118-0.395-0.395-0.609-0.609-0.593-0.593-0.615-0.615-0.607-0.607-0.209-0.2090.0710.0710.1350.135-0.110-0.110-0.221-0.221-0.092-0.092-0.219-0.219-0.185-0.185-0.155-0.1550.2900.2900.1430.1430.1740.1740.4110.4110.5470.547v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.547 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3461
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8894
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8651
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4228
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5701
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3386
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1147
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5702
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5685
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.174 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.10e-4 · top T=12.00h (18.7%) · top-3 cover 41.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.7e-43.5e-42.3e-41.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.35e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.35e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.70e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.70e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.01e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.01e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.80e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.80e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.14e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.14e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.54e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.54e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.84e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.84e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.12e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.12e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.60e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.60e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.71e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.71e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.76e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.76e-4 · 11.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 18.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.517e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.07× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 5.92× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.07×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
5.92×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.03×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.52×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.48× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.54400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.48× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.54
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.07%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.15%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 766% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 6.73σ ann 114% · Sortino 6.58 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%766.4%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)113.8%Ann. vol σ673.4%Sharpe (ann)657.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.3002.3722.4452.5172.5902.662t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
555f38dc6e24ddc2c28db1292ccdf433ad3844a9c98990a6ec23dbd784cb447a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,473HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.04

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.35K
bid $951 · ask $2.40K
Depth within 10bp
$21.63K
bid $13.98K · ask $7.65K
Depth within 50bp
$85.15K
bid $38.17K · ask $46.98K
Mid price
2.451350
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.102
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.262
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-icp/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.45181.84bp2.45181FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.45337.78bp2.45429FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.456822.33bp2.460820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.45062.91bp2.45013FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.44986.24bp2.44908FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.448212.94bp2.446620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-icp/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$1.40M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-icp/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.002 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$694.65K
real volume
Sell weight
$692.46K
real volume
Net delta
$2.19K
buyers net
Imbalance
0.16%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-icp/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 7.84% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 19:00:00Z11.0h2.6114→2.40677.839%12
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h2.5155→2.45172.536%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z0ms2.5441→2.51990.951%1

/api/asset/hl-icp/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
113.81%
σ per bar = 0.000496
Mean return (annualised)
766.44%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.73
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.62%
peak 2.56 → trough 2.44 over 1020 bars

/api/asset/hl-icp/risk · same metrics, JSON