HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HEMI

HEMI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hemi · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.12%
realized vol (ann.)
114.50%
max drawdown
1.40%
sharpe
17.75
ulcer index
0.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2754.72
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1589.30
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
2.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.12%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
556.53%
signalSHORTconfidence 48%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.12%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 33.8bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-hemi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
-3.12%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
HEMI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0063 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0062, 0.0066] · R²=0.404▼ FALLING -1.10%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.00620.00660.00650.00640.00630.0062μ = 0.0063max 0.0066min 0.0062dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 50.0%Short fee 50.0%SHORT FEE50.0%
Σ = 0.1%
Σ-sides total = 0.13% (99.87pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.063531% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,715,567 · μ=388622.7 · σ=489866.6 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 3886232,511,68550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2511685 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.7s
$mark $
$0.0062
$mid $
$0.0062
◉prev-day close
$0.0064
Δ24h Δ %
-3.125%
$24h vol $
$60.36k
◐open interest $
$2.16M
%funding (1h)
0.063531%
%funding (yr)
+556.53%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0063 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0062, 0.0066] · R²=0.404▼ FALLING -1.10%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.00620.00660.00650.00640.00630.0062μ = 0.0063max 0.0066min 0.0062dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0062 · 24h -3.12% · range $[0.0062, 0.0066]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0062, 0.0067] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -3.14%CLOSE 0.0062 vs OPEN 0.0064 (-3.14%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00620.00670.00660.00640.00630.0062μ close = 0.0063O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.07%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.07%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.30%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.30%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.16%)5.2%O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+5.17%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+5.17%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.22%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.22%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,715,567 · μ=388622.7 · σ=489866.6 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 388623215,070 · 8.6% peak215,070 · 8.6% peak353,588 · 14.1% peak353,588 · 14.1% peak188,229 · 7.5% peak188,229 · 7.5% peak1,202,094 · 47.9% peak1,202,094 · 47.9% peak307,421 · 12.2% peak307,421 · 12.2% peak426,249 · 17.0% peak426,249 · 17.0% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak2,511,6852,511,685 · 100.0% peak2,511,685 · 100.0% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak56,133 · 2.2% peak56,133 · 2.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9715567 · peak 2511685 · CV 1.26

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0126 · skew=1.73 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.10 (leptokurtic (fat tails))108530 2-215.96bpbin -215.96bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -215.96bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 1-153.36bpbin -153.36bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -153.36bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 2-90.75bpbin -90.75bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -90.75bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 7-28.15bpbin -28.15bp · n=7 · 70.0% peakbin -28.15bp · n=7 · 70.0% peak 1034.46bpbin 34.46bp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 34.46bp · n=10 · 100.0% peak 197.06bpbin 97.06bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 97.06bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak159.67bp222.27bp284.88bp347.48bp410.09bp 1472.69bpbin 472.69bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 472.69bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.83 · kurt=6.70 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.78σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0062
Mid price
$0.0062
24h change
-3.12%
Mark–mid spread
1.60 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0064

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.32)
μ MEAN0.0063$95% CI: [0.0062$, 0.0063$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.44%
med MEDIAN0.0063$Q₁ 0.0062$ · Q₃ 0.0063$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0062$Q₁ 0.0062$med 0.0063$Q₃ 0.0063$max 0.0066$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.816right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.320leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.76
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-3.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.045887%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.034
σᵣ STD / h1.360975%σ²ᵣ = 1.852×10⁻⁴ · CV = 29.66×
σ ANNUALISED127.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.361%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-3.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-3.62downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-63.70drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.95right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂8.64leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.15
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -63.70
EXPECTED EDGE-401.97%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.14%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.136%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.430%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.380%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.31%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.136%VaR₉₉−2.430%ES₉₅−2.380%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK0.66$
−6.31% drawdown over 16h
0.62$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.372 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0064
Bollinger MA
$0.0063
Bollinger lower
$0.0061

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.440negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.202lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.870strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.945significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.870
H = 0.870STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.440k=2+0.202k=3-0.277k=4+0.050k=5+0.0020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.94)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.94)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$60.36k
Open interest (USD)
$2.16M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.03x
1h funding
0.063531%
Funding (annualised)
+556.53%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-2.477× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.239× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.619×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.04% · worst -2.47% · typical |Δ| 0.76%MILD BEARISH -1.10%BEST+5.04%15hWORST-2.47%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.38%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.68% · Σ +5.42%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.64% · Σ -5.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.10%+4.53%-1.99%0.08% · 13h0.08% · 13h0.08%13h-0.59% · 14h-0.59% · 14h-0.59%14h5.04% · 15h5.04% · 15h5.04%15h★ BEST-2.47% · 16h-2.47% · 16h-2.47%16h▼ WORST0.37% · 17h0.37% · 17h0.37%17h-2.29% · 18h-2.29% · 18h-2.29%18h-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h0.11% · 20h0.11% · 20h0.11%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h-0.95% · 00h-0.95% · 00h-0.95%00h0.85% · 01h0.85% · 01h0.85%01h0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h0.46% · 03h0.46% · 03h0.46%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.35% · 05h0.35% · 05h0.35%05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.97% · 07h-0.97% · 07h-0.97%07h0.39% · 08h0.39% · 08h0.39%08h0.58% · 09h0.58% · 09h0.58%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.42%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 5.04% · worst -2.47% · typical |Δ| 0.760%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.30%)FINAL-1.30%MAX DD-6.39%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.50%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9870 · peak 1.0450 · range [0.9783, 1.0450]1.04500.9783break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0450UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.39% · significant0%-6.39%▼ TROUGH -6.39%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.39%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.59%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.39%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9870 (-1.30%) · max DD -6.39% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-17.44 · σ=23.70UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.27 (+0.64σ vs μ)70.8235.410.00-35.41-70.82μ = -17.440.820.820.180.184.204.20-56.68-56.68-41.40-41.40-53.09-53.09-70.82-70.82-21.18-21.18-20.23-20.23-0.39-0.39-17.04-17.04-7.66-7.6611.3211.32-27.56-27.56-21.44-21.44-18.52-18.5214.0614.06-3.64-3.64-2.27-2.27v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.272 · range [-70.82, 14.06] · μ -17.439 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=97.6117 · σ=72.2420 · range [34.9308, 255.4204] · R²=0.494▼ FALLING -79.82%σ EXTREME 74.01%LAST 51.5487255.4204200.2980145.175690.053234.9308μ = 97.6117max 255.4204min 34.9308dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.55% · range [34.93%, 255.42%] · μ 97.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.304 · σ=0.176MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.071 (+1.32σ vs μ)0.6170.3090.000-0.309-0.617μ = -0.304-0.465-0.465-0.460-0.460-0.371-0.371-0.465-0.465-0.424-0.424-0.091-0.091-0.039-0.039-0.451-0.451-0.271-0.271-0.219-0.219-0.306-0.306-0.461-0.461-0.312-0.312-0.423-0.423-0.617-0.617-0.218-0.218-0.048-0.048-0.068-0.068-0.071-0.071v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.071 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
89.8945
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.7748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4935
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1225
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0785
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2808
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0249
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3212
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.598 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.08e-4 · top T=2.00h (29.0%) · top-3 cover 59.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.2e-45.4e-43.6e-41.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.31e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.31e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.38e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.38e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.65e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.65e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.42e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.42e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.84e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.84e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.62e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.62e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.23e-4 · 29.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.23e-4 · 29.0% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 29.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.492e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -4.12× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-4.12×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -6.65σ ann 162% · Sortino -3.23 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-921%-642%-364%-85%194%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)161.5%Ann. vol σ-665.4%Sharpe (ann)-322.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0060.0060.0060.0070.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
31f291e44f2f258c08568659c5ed06d131c5e2b16d0b4044e1e9dcb3727ad4ee · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$3.81K
bid $3.68K · ask $131
Depth within 5bp
$3.90K
bid $3.77K · ask $131
Depth within 10bp
$4.85K
bid $4.72K · ask $131
Depth within 50bp
$20.32K
bid $17.49K · ask $2.83K
Mid price
0.006230
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.005
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.056
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hemi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00623812.20bp0.0062403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00627164.29bp0.00630012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.006305119.91bp0.00635720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0062300.80bp0.0062301FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00622311.45bp0.0062159FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00620835.38bp0.00616720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+6.353e-4
0.06353% / hr
Annualised APR
556.912%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
15.7h
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
15.7h
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-556.912%15.7h6.6d
SHORTRECEIVE556.912%15.7h6.6d

/api/asset/hl-hemi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.72M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hemi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.335 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.34M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.16M
real volume
Net delta
$3.18M
buyers net
Imbalance
33.51%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-hemi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.32% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.006592→0.0063074.323%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.006294→0.0061761.875%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.006314→0.0062031.758%3

/api/asset/hl-hemi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
161.53%
σ per bar = 0.000704
Mean return (annualised)
-1074.80%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.18%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1934 bars

/api/asset/hl-hemi/risk · same metrics, JSON