HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GRIFFAIN

GRIFFAIN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-griffain · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.33%
realized vol (ann.)
74.03%
max drawdown
1.94%
sharpe
-33.82
ulcer index
0.73%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3406.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1475.55
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
2.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.33%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 41%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.33%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 7.4bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-griffain/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-3.33%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GRIFFAIN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0082, 0.0085] · R²=0.843▼ FALLING -3.36%σ LOW 1.00%LAST 0.00820.00850.00840.00830.00820.0082μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0082dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=15,110,466 · μ=604418.6 · σ=699247.3 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140898,3061,796,6122,694,9183,593,224μ = 6044193,593,22450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3593224 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.0082
$mid $
$0.0082
◉prev-day close
$0.0084
Δ24h Δ %
-3.333%
$24h vol $
$124.21k
◐open interest $
$518.21k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0082, 0.0085] · R²=0.843▼ FALLING -3.36%σ LOW 1.00%LAST 0.00820.00850.00840.00830.00820.0082μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0082dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0082 · 24h -3.33% · range $[0.0082, 0.0085]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0081, 0.0085] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BEARISH -3.50%CLOSE 0.0082 vs OPEN 0.0084 (-3.50%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00820.00850.00840.00830.00820.0081μ close = 0.0083O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.15%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.15%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.20%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.20%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.38%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.38%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.44%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.44%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.30%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.30%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.56%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.56%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.11%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.11%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.64%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.64%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.73%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.73%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.21%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.42%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.42%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.85%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.85%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.70%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.70%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)-0.9%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.90%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.90%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=15,110,466 · μ=604418.6 · σ=699247.3 · CV=1.16BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140898,3061,796,6122,694,9183,593,224μ = 604419345,629 · 9.6% peak345,629 · 9.6% peak344,521 · 9.6% peak344,521 · 9.6% peak388,956 · 10.8% peak388,956 · 10.8% peak360,699 · 10.0% peak360,699 · 10.0% peak1,745,529 · 48.6% peak1,745,529 · 48.6% peak731,185 · 20.3% peak731,185 · 20.3% peak575,537 · 16.0% peak575,537 · 16.0% peak321,949 · 9.0% peak321,949 · 9.0% peak369,927 · 10.3% peak369,927 · 10.3% peak350,825 · 9.8% peak350,825 · 9.8% peak366,915 · 10.2% peak366,915 · 10.2% peak222,955 · 6.2% peak222,955 · 6.2% peak1,013,544 · 28.2% peak1,013,544 · 28.2% peak604,160 · 16.8% peak604,160 · 16.8% peak255,780 · 7.1% peak255,780 · 7.1% peak421,536 · 11.7% peak421,536 · 11.7% peak565,171 · 15.7% peak565,171 · 15.7% peak480,288 · 13.4% peak480,288 · 13.4% peak288,463 · 8.0% peak288,463 · 8.0% peak217,316 · 6.0% peak217,316 · 6.0% peak510,054 · 14.2% peak510,054 · 14.2% peak195,856 · 5.5% peak195,856 · 5.5% peak486,139 · 13.5% peak486,139 · 13.5% peak354,308 · 9.9% peak354,308 · 9.9% peak3,593,2243,593,224 · 100.0% peak3,593,224 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 15110466 · peak 3593224 · CV 1.16

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0048 · skew=-0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.04 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 2-96.74bpbin -96.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -96.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-82.75bpbin -82.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -82.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-68.75bpbin -68.75bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -68.75bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak-54.75bp 1-40.75bpbin -40.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -40.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-26.75bpbin -26.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -26.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-12.76bpbin -12.76bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -12.76bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak1.24bp 415.24bpbin 15.24bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 15.24bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 229.24bpbin 29.24bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 29.24bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 143.23bpbin 43.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 43.23bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 357.23bpbin 57.23bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 57.23bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.12 · kurt=-1.06 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0082
Mid price
$0.0082
24h change
-3.33%
Mark–mid spread
3.68 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0084

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.16)
μ MEAN0.0083$95% CI: [0.0083$, 0.0083$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.00%
med MEDIAN0.0083$Q₁ 0.0082$ · Q₃ 0.0084$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0082$Q₁ 0.0082$med 0.0083$Q₃ 0.0084$max 0.0085$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.030approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.155platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-26.58
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.142211%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.284
σᵣ STD / h0.500760%σ²ᵣ = 0.251×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.52×
σ ANNUALISED46.87%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.501%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-26.58negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-22.99downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.02platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1245.76%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.90%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.902%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.012%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.982%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.57%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.902%VaR₉₉−1.012%ES₉₅−0.982%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK0.85$
−3.57% drawdown over 21h
0.82$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.71% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.003 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0084
Bollinger MA
$0.0083
Bollinger lower
$0.0082

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.297within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.226lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.967strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.127significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.967
H = 0.967STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.297k=2+0.226k=3 ★-0.572k=4+0.003k=5-0.2020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$124.21k
Open interest (USD)
$518.21k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.64% · worst -1.04% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -3.41%BEST+0.64%09hWORST-1.04%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.63%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.41%+0.23%-3.41%-0.26% · 13h-0.26% · 13h-0.26%13h0.23% · 14h0.23% · 14h0.23%14h0.26% · 15h0.26% · 15h0.26%15h-0.93% · 16h-0.93% · 16h-0.93%16h-0.16% · 17h-0.16% · 17h-0.16%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h0.40% · 19h0.40% · 19h0.40%19h0.20% · 20h0.20% · 20h0.20%20h0.56% · 21h0.56% · 21h0.56%21h-0.76% · 22h-0.76% · 22h-0.76%22h-0.14% · 23h-0.14% · 23h-0.14%23h-0.75% · 00h-0.75% · 00h-0.75%00h0.19% · 01h0.19% · 01h0.19%01h-0.30% · 02h-0.30% · 02h-0.30%02h0.64% · 03h0.64% · 03h0.64%03h-0.72% · 04h-0.72% · 04h-0.72%04h-0.30% · 05h-0.30% · 05h-0.30%05h-0.32% · 06h-0.32% · 06h-0.32%06h-0.07% · 07h-0.07% · 07h-0.07%07h0.19% · 08h0.19% · 08h0.19%08h0.64% · 09h0.64% · 09h0.64%09h★ BEST-0.69% · 10h-0.69% · 10h-0.69%10h0.18% · 11h0.18% · 11h0.18%11h-1.04% · 12h-1.04% · 12h-1.04%12h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.48%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.64% · worst -1.04% · typical |Δ| 0.434%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.39%)FINAL-3.39%MAX DD-3.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.22%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9661 · peak 1.0022 · range [0.9661, 1.0022]1.00220.9661break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0022UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.60% · moderate0%-3.60%▼ TROUGH -3.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.60%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.26%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9661 (-3.39%) · max DD -3.60% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-22.28 · σ=11.85UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -19.58 (+0.23σ vs μ)46.2923.150.00-23.15-46.29μ = -22.28-46.29-46.29-20.41-20.41-21.21-21.21-10.83-10.83-6.88-6.88-6.53-6.53-13.49-13.49-20.04-20.04-35.94-35.94-32.13-32.13-31.47-31.47-35.98-35.98-26.53-26.53-37.15-37.15-19.27-19.27-19.10-19.10-18.36-18.36-2.05-2.05-19.58-19.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -19.583 · range [-46.29, -2.05] · μ -22.276 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=47.9559 · σ=4.3571 · range [41.7850, 58.3111] · R²=0.007▲ RISING +39.55%σ HIGH 9.09%LAST 58.311158.311154.179650.048145.916541.7850μ = 47.9559max 58.3111min 41.7850dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.31% · range [41.79%, 58.31%] · μ 47.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.256 · σ=0.229MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.321 (-0.28σ vs μ)0.5700.2850.000-0.285-0.570μ = -0.256-0.206-0.206-0.236-0.236-0.214-0.2140.1390.139-0.241-0.241-0.223-0.223-0.021-0.021-0.259-0.259-0.548-0.548-0.269-0.269-0.570-0.570-0.497-0.497-0.447-0.447-0.464-0.464-0.257-0.2570.3510.351-0.169-0.169-0.408-0.408-0.321-0.321v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.321 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1001
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5769
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.9203
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0108
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8706
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8803
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8387
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4017
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.745 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.32e-5 · top T=2.00h (55.4%) · top-3 cover 87.4%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.64e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.64e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.96e-5 · 25.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.96e-5 · 25.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.61e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.61e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.60e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.60e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.65e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.65e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.79e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.79e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.61e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.61e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.42e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 55.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 55.4% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 55.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.989e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-56.35×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.43400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.43
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -35.08σ ann 62% · Sortino -20.62 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4209%-3353%-2496%-1639%-782%75%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)62.3%Ann. vol σ-3507.8%Sharpe (ann)-2061.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:58 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7fdce8ae731db5115b27eed5573edbbb249a29e710bb4728dc162b770551cf09 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.44K
bid $2.14K · ask $293
Depth within 10bp
$4.31K
bid $2.73K · ask $1.58K
Depth within 50bp
$25.22K
bid $13.29K · ask $11.93K
Mid price
0.008155
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.069
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.051
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-griffain/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0081595.31bp0.0081603FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00817120.69bp0.00818311FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00818335.08bp0.00822720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0081514.29bp0.0081511FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00814017.84bp0.00812212FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00812535.96bp0.00809720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-griffain/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$15.11M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-griffain/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.475 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.88M
real volume
Sell weight
$10.89M
real volume
Net delta
$7.01M
sellers net
Imbalance
-47.47%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-griffain/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.75% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.008420→0.0082731.746%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.008453→0.0083231.538%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.008278→0.0081511.534%3

/api/asset/hl-griffain/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
62.25%
σ per bar = 0.000271
Mean return (annualised)
-2183.70%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-35.08
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.37%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4869 bars

/api/asset/hl-griffain/risk · same metrics, JSON