HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GRASS

GRASS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-grass · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.46%
realized vol (ann.)
81.89%
max drawdown
1.73%
sharpe
-17.75
ulcer index
0.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1590.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.56%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-933.54
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.46%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.46%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 5.5bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-grass/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.384
24h Δ · live
-1.46%
24h vol · live
$1.3M
GRASS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3903 · σ=0.0042 · range [0.3827, 0.4002] · R²=0.313▼ FALLING -2.43%σ NORMAL 1.07%LAST 0.38400.40020.39590.39150.38710.3827μ = 0.3903max 0.4002min 0.3827dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.38
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,434,774 · μ=137390.9 · σ=122442.5 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=70119,639239,278358,917478,556μ = 137391478,55650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 478556 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.3841
$mid $
$0.3843
◉prev-day close
$0.3898
Δ24h Δ %
-1.460%
$24h vol $
$1.34M
◐open interest $
$7.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3903 · σ=0.0042 · range [0.3827, 0.4002] · R²=0.313▼ FALLING -2.43%σ NORMAL 1.07%LAST 0.38400.40020.39590.39150.38710.3827μ = 0.3903max 0.4002min 0.3827dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3841 · 24h -1.46% · range $[0.3827, 0.4002]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.3820, 0.4089] · σ=0.0042 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.44%CLOSE 0.3840 vs OPEN 0.3896 (-1.44%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.38400.40890.40220.39550.38870.3820μ close = 0.3903O0.390 H0.395 L0.389 C0.394 (+1.01%)O0.390 H0.395 L0.389 C0.394 (+1.01%)O0.394 H0.394 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.80%)O0.394 H0.394 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.80%)2.6%O0.390 H0.404 L0.389 C0.400 (+2.57%)O0.390 H0.404 L0.389 C0.400 (+2.57%)O0.400 H0.409 L0.398 C0.398 (-0.63%)O0.400 H0.409 L0.398 C0.398 (-0.63%)O0.398 H0.399 L0.386 C0.389 (-2.10%)O0.398 H0.399 L0.386 C0.389 (-2.10%)O0.389 H0.393 L0.386 C0.388 (-0.29%)O0.389 H0.393 L0.386 C0.388 (-0.29%)O0.388 H0.392 L0.386 C0.387 (-0.15%)O0.388 H0.392 L0.386 C0.387 (-0.15%)O0.387 H0.393 L0.387 C0.391 (+1.02%)O0.387 H0.393 L0.387 C0.391 (+1.02%)O0.391 H0.391 L0.384 C0.386 (-1.36%)O0.391 H0.391 L0.384 C0.386 (-1.36%)O0.386 H0.393 L0.383 C0.392 (+1.50%)O0.386 H0.393 L0.383 C0.392 (+1.50%)O0.391 H0.393 L0.390 C0.391 (-0.09%)O0.391 H0.393 L0.390 C0.391 (-0.09%)O0.390 H0.394 L0.389 C0.391 (+0.30%)O0.390 H0.394 L0.389 C0.391 (+0.30%)O0.391 H0.393 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.25%)O0.391 H0.393 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.25%)O0.390 H0.396 L0.389 C0.395 (+1.24%)O0.390 H0.396 L0.389 C0.395 (+1.24%)O0.395 H0.400 L0.391 C0.391 (-1.00%)O0.395 H0.400 L0.391 C0.391 (-1.00%)O0.391 H0.396 L0.389 C0.396 (+1.31%)O0.391 H0.396 L0.389 C0.396 (+1.31%)O0.395 H0.396 L0.389 C0.391 (-1.15%)O0.395 H0.396 L0.389 C0.391 (-1.15%)O0.390 H0.396 L0.390 C0.392 (+0.49%)O0.390 H0.396 L0.390 C0.392 (+0.49%)O0.393 H0.396 L0.389 C0.391 (-0.51%)O0.393 H0.396 L0.389 C0.391 (-0.51%)O0.391 H0.391 L0.385 C0.388 (-0.74%)O0.391 H0.391 L0.385 C0.388 (-0.74%)O0.388 H0.391 L0.386 C0.387 (-0.25%)O0.388 H0.391 L0.386 C0.387 (-0.25%)O0.386 H0.389 L0.383 C0.387 (+0.21%)O0.386 H0.389 L0.383 C0.387 (+0.21%)O0.387 H0.389 L0.382 C0.383 (-1.13%)O0.387 H0.389 L0.382 C0.383 (-1.13%)O0.383 H0.385 L0.383 C0.384 (+0.43%)O0.383 H0.385 L0.383 C0.384 (+0.43%)O0.385 H0.385 L0.383 C0.384 (-0.15%)O0.385 H0.385 L0.383 C0.384 (-0.15%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,434,774 · μ=137390.9 · σ=122442.5 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=70119,639239,278358,917478,556μ = 13739116,163.2 · 3.4% peak16,163.2 · 3.4% peak73,665.2 · 15.4% peak73,665.2 · 15.4% peak206,374.1 · 43.1% peak206,374.1 · 43.1% peak306,388.9 · 64.0% peak306,388.9 · 64.0% peak478,556478,556 · 100.0% peak478,556 · 100.0% peak319,333.7 · 66.7% peak319,333.7 · 66.7% peak337,532.2 · 70.5% peak337,532.2 · 70.5% peak202,510.6 · 42.3% peak202,510.6 · 42.3% peak264,567.2 · 55.3% peak264,567.2 · 55.3% peak184,138.3 · 38.5% peak184,138.3 · 38.5% peak130,036.8 · 27.2% peak130,036.8 · 27.2% peak103,966 · 21.7% peak103,966 · 21.7% peak48,583.6 · 10.2% peak48,583.6 · 10.2% peak76,317.7 · 15.9% peak76,317.7 · 15.9% peak163,325.5 · 34.1% peak163,325.5 · 34.1% peak42,123.8 · 8.8% peak42,123.8 · 8.8% peak61,680.8 · 12.9% peak61,680.8 · 12.9% peak93,302.1 · 19.5% peak93,302.1 · 19.5% peak86,116.7 · 18.0% peak86,116.7 · 18.0% peak102,072.6 · 21.3% peak102,072.6 · 21.3% peak52,898.2 · 11.1% peak52,898.2 · 11.1% peak21,683.2 · 4.5% peak21,683.2 · 4.5% peak26,698.7 · 5.6% peak26,698.7 · 5.6% peak32,187.4 · 6.7% peak32,187.4 · 6.7% peak4,551.1 · 1.0% peak4,551.1 · 1.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3434774 · peak 478556 · CV 0.89

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0099 · skew=0.54 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.07 (mesokurtic)54310 1-192.26bpbin -192.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -192.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-153.99bpbin -153.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -153.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-115.71bpbin -115.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -115.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-77.44bpbin -77.44bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -77.44bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-39.17bpbin -39.17bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -39.17bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-0.89bpbin -0.89bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -0.89bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 237.38bpbin 37.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 37.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak75.66bp 3113.93bpbin 113.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 113.93bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1152.21bpbin 152.21bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 152.21bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak190.48bp 1228.76bpbin 228.76bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 228.76bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.52 · kurt=0.24 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3841
Mid price
$0.3843
24h change
-1.46%
Mark–mid spread
3.64 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3898

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3903$95% CI: [0.3886$, 0.3919$]
σ STD DEV0.0042$σ² = 0.173×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.07%
med MEDIAN0.3906$Q₁ 0.3874$ · Q₃ 0.3917$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0175$ · IQR 0.0043$ (1.349σ→0.0056$)
min 0.3827$Q₁ 0.3874$med 0.3906$Q₃ 0.3917$max 0.4002$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.369approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.162mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.31
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.29
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.102362%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.099
σᵣ STD / h1.031430%σ²ᵣ = 1.064×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.08×
σ ANNUALISED96.54%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.031%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.29negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.55right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.60mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.14
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-896.69%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.36%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.359%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.943%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.743%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.38%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.359%VaR₉₉−1.943%ES₉₅−1.743%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK40.02$
−4.38% drawdown over 20h
38.27$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.119 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3962
Bollinger MA
$0.3893
Bollinger lower
$0.3823

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.431negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.074lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.879strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.238significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.879
H = 0.879STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.431k=2+0.074k=3-0.163k=4+0.212k=5-0.1730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.34M
Open interest (USD)
$7.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.19x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-9.622× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.811× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.405×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.48% · worst -2.11% · typical |Δ| 0.80%BEARISH SESSION -2.46%BEST+2.48%14hWORST-2.11%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.80%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.46%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.82%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.46%+1.69%-2.79%-0.79% · 13h-0.79% · 13h-0.79%13h2.48% · 14h2.48% · 14h2.48%14h★ BEST-0.63% · 15h-0.63% · 15h-0.63%15h-2.11% · 16h-2.11% · 16h-2.11%16h▼ WORST-0.34% · 17h-0.34% · 17h-0.34%17h-0.19% · 18h-0.19% · 18h-0.19%18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h-1.37% · 20h-1.37% · 20h-1.37%20h1.47% · 21h1.47% · 21h1.47%21h-0.26% · 22h-0.26% · 22h-0.26%22h0.16% · 23h0.16% · 23h0.16%23h-0.28% · 00h-0.28% · 00h-0.28%00h1.18% · 01h1.18% · 01h1.18%01h-0.96% · 02h-0.96% · 02h-0.96%02h1.20% · 03h1.20% · 03h1.20%03h-1.29% · 04h-1.29% · 04h-1.29%04h0.37% · 05h0.37% · 05h0.37%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.65% · 07h-0.65% · 07h-0.65%07h-0.27% · 08h-0.27% · 08h-0.27%08h0.01% · 09h0.01% · 09h0.01%09h-1.13% · 10h-1.13% · 10h-1.13%10h0.45% · 11h0.45% · 11h0.45%11h-0.12% · 12h-0.12% · 12h-0.12%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 2.48% · worst -2.11% · typical |Δ| 0.796%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.55%)FINAL-2.55%MAX DD-4.46%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.67%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9745 · peak 1.0167 · range [0.9713, 1.0167]1.01670.9713break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0167UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.46% · moderate0%-4.46%▼ TROUGH -4.46%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.46%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.79%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.46%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9745 (-2.55%) · max DD -4.46% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-14.41 · σ=29.14MIXED EDGELAST -48.74 (-1.18σ vs μ)62.3231.160.00-31.16-62.32μ = -14.41-16.30-16.302.152.15-53.11-53.11-17.62-17.624.884.8812.6912.6911.2211.2213.5413.5422.0122.0118.9618.960.300.303.343.341.531.53-29.21-29.21-18.78-18.78-61.24-61.24-62.32-62.32-57.10-57.10-48.74-48.74v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -48.740 · range [-62.32, 22.01] · μ -14.411 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=91.3212 · σ=27.7714 · range [48.6456, 145.9635] · R²=0.758▼ FALLING -63.60%σ EXTREME 30.41%LAST 51.3570145.9635121.634197.304672.975148.6456μ = 91.3212max 145.9635min 48.6456dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.36% · range [48.65%, 145.96%] · μ 91.32% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.531 · σ=0.264MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.502 (+0.11σ vs μ)0.8250.4130.000-0.413-0.825μ = -0.531-0.143-0.1430.0400.040-0.142-0.142-0.333-0.333-0.752-0.752-0.816-0.816-0.754-0.754-0.547-0.547-0.494-0.494-0.734-0.734-0.762-0.762-0.825-0.825-0.777-0.777-0.749-0.749-0.566-0.566-0.419-0.419-0.221-0.221-0.594-0.594-0.502-0.502v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.502 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5852
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4527
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.3659
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1360
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4424
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1375
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.0146
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0026
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (19 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4172
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0697
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7971
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0723
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.453 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.17e-4 · top T=2.00h (25.9%) · top-3 cover 56.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.6e-42.7e-41.8e-49.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.99e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.16e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.16e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.55e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.55e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.80e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.80e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.19e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.19e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.03e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.03e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.10e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.10e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-4 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-4 · 25.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 25.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.405e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-35.55×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -33.57400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -33.57
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -31.82σ ann 89% · Sortino -25.95 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3818%-3033%-2248%-1463%-678%107%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)89.5%Ann. vol σ-3181.5%Sharpe (ann)-2595.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3670.3760.3850.3940.4030.412t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:52 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:53 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
718ffe4fa58cd39bbfcd58096e2c5d8109ebeab6b9446c28f41d46120b3238ef · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.56K
bid $938 · ask $617
Depth within 10bp
$3.81K
bid $1.55K · ask $2.26K
Depth within 50bp
$28.90K
bid $15.66K · ask $13.24K
Mid price
0.384265
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.038
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.093
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-grass/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3844685.27bp0.3846204FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.38507521.08bp0.38558011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.38541829.99bp0.38638020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3841473.07bp0.3840003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.38339622.60bp0.38291013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.38302632.23bp0.38209020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-grass/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-grass/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.437 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$962.60K
real volume
Sell weight
$2.46M
real volume
Net delta
$1.49M
sellers net
Imbalance
-43.68%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
43.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-grass/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.31% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z8.0h0.395820→0.3827203.310%9
#22026-06-13 15:00:00Z3.0h0.400250→0.3873803.215%4
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.391290→0.3859601.362%1

/api/asset/hl-grass/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
89.49%
σ per bar = 0.000390
Mean return (annualised)
-2847.20%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.82
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.56%
peak 0.40 → trough 0.38 over 3151 bars

/api/asset/hl-grass/risk · same metrics, JSON