HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GMX

GMX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gmx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.07%
realized vol (ann.)
37.97%
max drawdown
0.62%
sharpe
66.19
ulcer index
0.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
12539.15
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
4976.63
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.15
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.07%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gmx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$5.622
24h Δ · live
0.07%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GMX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.5973 · σ=0.0216 · range [5.5584, 5.6357] · R²=0.252▲ RISING +0.36%σ LOW 0.39%LAST 5.61965.63575.61645.59705.57775.5584μ = 5.5973max 5.6357min 5.5584dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $5.62
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=20,699 · μ=828.0 · σ=428.3 · CV=0.52RISING +60% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1405011,0021,5032,004μ = 8282,004.0550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2004 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
$mark $
$5.6224
$mid $
$5.6234
◉prev-day close
$5.6187
Δ24h Δ %
+0.066%
$24h vol $
$114.64k
◐open interest $
$283.72k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.5973 · σ=0.0216 · range [5.5584, 5.6357] · R²=0.252▲ RISING +0.36%σ LOW 0.39%LAST 5.61965.63575.61645.59705.57775.5584μ = 5.5973max 5.6357min 5.5584dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $5.6224 · 24h 0.07% · range $[5.5584, 5.6357]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [5.5363, 5.6525] · σ=0.0216 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=41%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 5.6196 vs OPEN 5.6158 (+0.07%)&#9650; CLOSE 5.61965.65255.62355.59445.56535.5363μ close = 5.5973O5.616 H5.629 L5.591 C5.600 (-0.29%)O5.616 H5.629 L5.591 C5.600 (-0.29%)O5.599 H5.624 L5.591 C5.605 (+0.10%)O5.599 H5.624 L5.591 C5.605 (+0.10%)O5.607 H5.615 L5.597 C5.612 (+0.09%)O5.607 H5.615 L5.597 C5.612 (+0.09%)O5.609 H5.636 L5.609 C5.627 (+0.32%)O5.609 H5.636 L5.609 C5.627 (+0.32%)O5.624 H5.631 L5.591 C5.611 (-0.24%)O5.624 H5.631 L5.591 C5.611 (-0.24%)O5.612 H5.641 L5.605 C5.611 (-0.02%)O5.612 H5.641 L5.605 C5.611 (-0.02%)O5.609 H5.630 L5.604 C5.609 (-0.00%)O5.609 H5.630 L5.604 C5.609 (-0.00%)O5.617 H5.641 L5.603 C5.623 (+0.10%)O5.617 H5.641 L5.603 C5.623 (+0.10%)O5.623 H5.639 L5.601 C5.610 (-0.22%)O5.623 H5.639 L5.601 C5.610 (-0.22%)O5.610 H5.636 L5.583 C5.616 (+0.11%)O5.610 H5.636 L5.583 C5.616 (+0.11%)O5.615 H5.618 L5.582 C5.587 (-0.49%)O5.615 H5.618 L5.582 C5.587 (-0.49%)O5.588 H5.593 L5.573 C5.582 (-0.11%)O5.588 H5.593 L5.573 C5.582 (-0.11%)0.9%O5.583 H5.636 L5.583 C5.636 (+0.94%)O5.583 H5.636 L5.583 C5.636 (+0.94%)O5.636 H5.652 L5.604 C5.606 (-0.53%)O5.636 H5.652 L5.604 C5.606 (-0.53%)O5.610 H5.627 L5.587 C5.589 (-0.37%)O5.610 H5.627 L5.587 C5.589 (-0.37%)O5.592 H5.608 L5.586 C5.591 (-0.01%)O5.592 H5.608 L5.586 C5.591 (-0.01%)O5.598 H5.598 L5.564 C5.569 (-0.52%)O5.598 H5.598 L5.564 C5.569 (-0.52%)O5.571 H5.578 L5.548 C5.569 (-0.04%)O5.571 H5.578 L5.548 C5.569 (-0.04%)O5.574 H5.592 L5.563 C5.564 (-0.19%)O5.574 H5.592 L5.563 C5.564 (-0.19%)O5.567 H5.567 L5.536 C5.558 (-0.16%)O5.567 H5.567 L5.536 C5.558 (-0.16%)O5.552 H5.586 L5.541 C5.582 (+0.54%)O5.552 H5.586 L5.541 C5.582 (+0.54%)O5.587 H5.590 L5.560 C5.578 (-0.15%)O5.587 H5.590 L5.560 C5.578 (-0.15%)O5.586 H5.590 L5.559 C5.567 (-0.33%)O5.586 H5.590 L5.559 C5.567 (-0.33%)O5.564 H5.611 L5.564 C5.611 (+0.84%)O5.564 H5.611 L5.564 C5.611 (+0.84%)O5.610 H5.622 L5.604 C5.620 (+0.17%)O5.610 H5.622 L5.604 C5.620 (+0.17%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=20,699 · μ=828.0 · σ=428.3 · CV=0.52RISING +60% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1405011,0021,5032,004μ = 828611.16 · 30.5% peak611.16 · 30.5% peak1,003.02 · 50.0% peak1,003.02 · 50.0% peak344.14 · 17.2% peak344.14 · 17.2% peak527.13 · 26.3% peak527.13 · 26.3% peak1,230.93 · 61.4% peak1,230.93 · 61.4% peak1,077.03 · 53.7% peak1,077.03 · 53.7% peak416.96 · 20.8% peak416.96 · 20.8% peak541.3 · 27.0% peak541.3 · 27.0% peak459.39 · 22.9% peak459.39 · 22.9% peak794.45 · 39.6% peak794.45 · 39.6% peak563.13 · 28.1% peak563.13 · 28.1% peak381.14 · 19.0% peak381.14 · 19.0% peak2,004.052,004.05 · 100.0% peak2,004.05 · 100.0% peak1,439.85 · 71.8% peak1,439.85 · 71.8% peak740.94 · 37.0% peak740.94 · 37.0% peak1,295.66 · 64.7% peak1,295.66 · 64.7% peak676.46 · 33.8% peak676.46 · 33.8% peak1,248.2 · 62.3% peak1,248.2 · 62.3% peak441.8 · 22.0% peak441.8 · 22.0% peak662.46 · 33.1% peak662.46 · 33.1% peak1,037.18 · 51.8% peak1,037.18 · 51.8% peak1,380.71 · 68.9% peak1,380.71 · 68.9% peak907.02 · 45.3% peak907.02 · 45.3% peak710.59 · 35.5% peak710.59 · 35.5% peak204.33 · 10.2% peak204.33 · 10.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 20699 · peak 2004 · CV 0.52

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0034 · skew=0.88 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.68 (mesokurtic)54310 2-46.79bpbin -46.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -46.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-34.33bpbin -34.33bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -34.33bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-21.88bpbin -21.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -21.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-9.42bpbin -9.42bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -9.42bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 53.04bpbin 3.04bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 3.04bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 315.49bpbin 15.49bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 15.49bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 227.95bpbin 27.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 27.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 140.41bpbin 40.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 40.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak52.86bp65.32bp 177.77bpbin 77.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 77.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 190.23bpbin 90.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 90.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.94 · kurt=1.02 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$5.6224
Mid price
$5.6234
24h change
+0.07%
Mark–mid spread
1.78 bps
Prev-day close
$5.6187

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.20)
μ MEAN5.5973$95% CI: [5.5888$, 5.6058$]
σ STD DEV0.0216$σ² = 4.680×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.39%
med MEDIAN5.6047$Q₁ 5.5816$ · Q₃ 5.6111$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0773$ · IQR 0.0295$ (1.349σ→0.0292$)
min 5.5584$Q₁ 5.5816$med 5.6047$Q₃ 5.6111$max 5.6357$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.210approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.201platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.57
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.91
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.014856%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.042
σᵣ STD / h0.355995%σ²ᵣ = 0.127×10⁻⁴ · CV = 23.96×
σ ANNUALISED33.32%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.356%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.91excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)5.22strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)94.88exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.01right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.57leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.34
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 94.88
EXPECTED EDGE+130.13%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.49%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.494%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.526%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.520%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.37%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.494%VaR₉₉−0.526%ES₉₅−0.520%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK563.57$
−1.37% drawdown over 7h
555.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.39% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.785 · within band
Bollinger upper
$5.6390
Bollinger MA
$5.5939
Bollinger lower
$5.5488

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.231within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.227lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.447mean-reverting
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.786significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]mean-reverting · H = 0.447
H = 0.447MEAN-REVERTING
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.231k=2-0.227k=3+0.286k=4-0.179k=5+0.1200+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.79)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.34moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.79)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$114.64k
Open interest (USD)
$283.72k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.40x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.96% · worst -0.53% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BULLISH +0.36%BEST+0.96%00hWORST-0.53%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.42%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.58%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.80%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.36%+0.64%-0.74%0.09% · 13h0.09% · 13h0.09%13h0.13% · 14h0.13% · 14h0.13%14h0.26% · 15h0.26% · 15h0.26%15h-0.28% · 16h-0.28% · 16h-0.28%16h-0.00% · 17h-0.00% · 17h-0.00%17h-0.03% · 18h-0.03% · 18h-0.03%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h-0.23% · 20h-0.23% · 20h-0.23%20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h-0.51% · 22h-0.51% · 22h-0.51%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.96% · 00h0.96% · 00h0.96%00h★ BEST-0.53% · 01h-0.53% · 01h-0.53%01h▼ WORST-0.30% · 02h-0.30% · 02h-0.30%02h0.04% · 03h0.04% · 03h0.04%03h-0.40% · 04h-0.40% · 04h-0.40%04h-0.01% · 05h-0.01% · 05h-0.01%05h-0.09% · 06h-0.09% · 06h-0.09%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.43% · 08h0.43% · 08h0.43%08h-0.08% · 09h-0.08% · 09h-0.08%09h-0.20% · 10h-0.20% · 10h-0.20%10h0.79% · 11h0.79% · 11h0.79%11h0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.58%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.96% · worst -0.53% · typical |Δ| 0.252%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.34%FINAL+0.34%MAX DD-1.37%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.64%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0034 · peak 1.0064 · range [0.9925, 1.0064]1.00640.9925break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0064UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.37% · moderate0%-1.37%▼ TROUGH -1.37%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.37%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.80%bar 5-12 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.37%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0034 (0.34%) · max DD -1.37% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-9.65 · σ=31.58UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 41.17 (+1.61σ vs μ)87.2343.610.00-43.61-87.23μ = -9.6514.1514.1524.8824.88-2.32-2.32-15.23-15.23-24.77-24.77-30.55-30.5514.6614.66-8.60-8.60-10.53-10.53-12.13-12.13-9.28-9.28-6.64-6.64-87.23-87.23-77.35-77.35-6.94-6.94-13.93-13.93-2.63-2.6330.0030.0041.1741.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 41.166 · range [-87.23, 41.17] · μ -9.647 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.1772 · σ=13.9746 · range [16.0616, 52.2209] · R²=0.026▲ RISING +107.13%σ EXTREME 43.43%LAST 35.456252.220943.181134.141225.101416.0616μ = 32.1772max 52.2209min 16.0616dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.46% · range [16.06%, 52.22%] · μ 32.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.308 · σ=0.145MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.392 (-0.58σ vs μ)0.6890.3440.000-0.344-0.689μ = -0.308-0.168-0.168-0.211-0.211-0.523-0.523-0.438-0.438-0.376-0.376-0.360-0.360-0.093-0.093-0.397-0.397-0.297-0.297-0.268-0.268-0.323-0.323-0.293-0.293-0.209-0.209-0.689-0.689-0.159-0.159-0.153-0.153-0.198-0.198-0.297-0.297-0.392-0.392v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.392 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.5426
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0380
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.8017
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2348
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2722
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1876
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0549
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0824
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.471 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.23e-5 · top T=2.67h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 58.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-52.6e-51.7e-58.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.16e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.16e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.45e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.45e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.59e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.59e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.46e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.46e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 21.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.12e-5 · 21.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.45e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.45e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.77e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.77e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.07e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.07e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.70e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.70e-6 · 3.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.481e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 49.52× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
49.52×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.07400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.07
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.12%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 608% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 17.35σ ann 35% · Sortino 12.51 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%416%833%1249%1666%2082%607.9%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)35.0%Ann. vol σ1734.9%Sharpe (ann)1250.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
5.3185.4255.5315.6385.7445.851t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
da3da951663ff59aa4125712b1b5aa118d0b001b2fc1ce22333036e534b528c2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.64K
bid $873 · ask $763
Depth within 10bp
$8.24K
bid $5.18K · ask $3.06K
Depth within 50bp
$30.15K
bid $16.05K · ask $14.10K
Mid price
5.623450
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.010
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.027
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K5.62594.45bp5.62753FILLED
BUY$10.00K5.631614.50bp5.642113FILLED
BUY$100.00K5.638626.91bp5.659320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K5.62222.23bp5.62013FILLED
SELL$10.00K5.615813.67bp5.608212FILLED
SELL$100.00K5.609724.40bp5.593820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-gmx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$5.0000–$6.0000★25$20.70K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.158 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.46K
real volume
Sell weight
$11.63K
real volume
Net delta
$3.16K
sellers net
Imbalance
-15.75%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gmx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 01:00:00Z3.0h5.6357→5.56921.180%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z1.0h5.6230→5.58160.736%2

/api/asset/hl-gmx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
35.04%
σ per bar = 0.000153
Mean return (annualised)
607.86%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.35
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.08%
peak 5.60 → trough 5.54 over 2230 bars

/api/asset/hl-gmx/risk · same metrics, JSON