HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GMT

GMT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gmt · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.55%
realized vol (ann.)
53.69%
max drawdown
2.19%
sharpe
-48.53
ulcer index
1.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.06%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2005.96
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.09%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1247.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.55%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.55%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gmt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-3.55%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GMT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0081, 0.0084] · R²=0.857▼ FALLING -3.25%σ NORMAL 1.22%LAST 0.00810.00840.00840.00830.00820.0081μ = 0.0083max 0.0084min 0.0081dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,276,269 · μ=371050.8 · σ=184872.1 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130228,930457,860686,790915,720μ = 371051915,72050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 915720 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.0081
$mid $
$0.0081
◉prev-day close
$0.0084
Δ24h Δ %
-3.547%
$24h vol $
$76.03k
◐open interest $
$222.19k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0081, 0.0084] · R²=0.857▼ FALLING -3.25%σ NORMAL 1.22%LAST 0.00810.00840.00840.00830.00820.0081μ = 0.0083max 0.0084min 0.0081dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0081 · 24h -3.55% · range $[0.0081, 0.0084]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0081, 0.0085] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%STRONG BEARISH -3.57%CLOSE 0.0081 vs OPEN 0.0084 (-3.57%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00810.00850.00840.00830.00820.0081μ close = 0.0083O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.42%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.42%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.98%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.98%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.01%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.01%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.83%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.83%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.06%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.06%)-1.1%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.14%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.14%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.03%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.03%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.15%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.15%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,276,269 · μ=371050.8 · σ=184872.1 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130228,930457,860686,790915,720μ = 371051450,620 · 49.2% peak450,620 · 49.2% peak197,715 · 21.6% peak197,715 · 21.6% peak237,745 · 26.0% peak237,745 · 26.0% peak270,384 · 29.5% peak270,384 · 29.5% peak915,720915,720 · 100.0% peak915,720 · 100.0% peak417,543 · 45.6% peak417,543 · 45.6% peak237,821 · 26.0% peak237,821 · 26.0% peak211,255 · 23.1% peak211,255 · 23.1% peak190,360 · 20.8% peak190,360 · 20.8% peak459,804 · 50.2% peak459,804 · 50.2% peak300,064 · 32.8% peak300,064 · 32.8% peak200,446 · 21.9% peak200,446 · 21.9% peak579,256 · 63.3% peak579,256 · 63.3% peak435,143 · 47.5% peak435,143 · 47.5% peak234,250 · 25.6% peak234,250 · 25.6% peak546,328 · 59.7% peak546,328 · 59.7% peak657,334 · 71.8% peak657,334 · 71.8% peak325,889 · 35.6% peak325,889 · 35.6% peak268,884 · 29.4% peak268,884 · 29.4% peak470,351 · 51.4% peak470,351 · 51.4% peak432,382 · 47.2% peak432,382 · 47.2% peak326,283 · 35.6% peak326,283 · 35.6% peak338,530 · 37.0% peak338,530 · 37.0% peak527,689 · 57.6% peak527,689 · 57.6% peak44,473 · 4.9% peak44,473 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9276269 · peak 915720 · CV 0.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0056 · skew=0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.79 (mesokurtic)43210 3-101.35bpbin -101.35bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -101.35bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-84.14bpbin -84.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -84.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-66.93bpbin -66.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -66.93bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-49.72bpbin -49.72bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -49.72bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-32.51bpbin -32.51bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -32.51bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-15.30bpbin -15.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -15.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 41.91bpbin 1.91bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 1.91bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 419.12bpbin 19.12bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 19.12bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak36.33bp 153.54bpbin 53.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 53.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 170.75bpbin 70.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 70.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 287.96bpbin 87.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 87.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.18 · kurt=-0.54 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0081
Mid price
$0.0081
24h change
-3.55%
Mark–mid spread
3.69 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0084

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.39)
μ MEAN0.0083$95% CI: [0.0082$, 0.0083$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.22%
med MEDIAN0.0083$Q₁ 0.0082$ · Q₃ 0.0084$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0081$Q₁ 0.0082$med 0.0083$Q₃ 0.0084$max 0.0084$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.142approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.391platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.30
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.137616%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.238
σᵣ STD / h0.577676%σ²ᵣ = 0.334×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.20×
σ ANNUALISED54.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.578%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.30negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.15downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.38mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1205.52%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.06%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.057%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.093%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.086%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.93%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.057%VaR₉₉−1.093%ES₉₅−1.086%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK0.84$
−3.93% drawdown over 20h
0.81$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.09% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
35.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.174 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0084
Bollinger MA
$0.0082
Bollinger lower
$0.0081

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.354within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.078lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.817strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.750significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.817
H = 0.817STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.354k=2+0.078k=3-0.349k=4+0.190k=5-0.2780+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$76.03k
Open interest (USD)
$222.19k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -3.30%BEST+0.97%08hWORST-1.10%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.49%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.30%+0.56%-3.45%-0.39% · 13h-0.39% · 13h-0.39%13h0.21% · 14h0.21% · 14h0.21%14h0.74% · 15h0.74% · 15h0.74%15h-0.98% · 16h-0.98% · 16h-0.98%16h0.16% · 17h0.16% · 17h0.16%17h-0.54% · 18h-0.54% · 18h-0.54%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.47% · 20h-0.47% · 20h-0.47%20h0.95% · 21h0.95% · 21h0.95%21h-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h-0.76% · 00h-0.76% · 00h-0.76%00h0.47% · 01h0.47% · 01h0.47%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.04% · 03h0.04% · 03h0.04%03h-1.07% · 04h-1.07% · 04h-1.07%04h-0.21% · 05h-0.21% · 05h-0.21%05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.97% · 08h0.97% · 08h0.97%08h★ BEST0.11% · 09h0.11% · 09h0.11%09h-1.10% · 10h-1.10% · 10h-1.10%10h▼ WORST-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.41%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 0.97% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.455%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.29%)FINAL-3.29%MAX DD-3.96%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.56%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9671 · peak 1.0056 · range [0.9657, 1.0056]1.00560.9657break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0056UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.96% · moderate0%-3.96%▼ TROUGH -3.96%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.96%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.39%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.96%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9671 (-3.29%) · max DD -3.96% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-24.19 · σ=19.49UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -5.72 (+0.95σ vs μ)69.9534.970.00-34.97-69.95μ = -24.19-20.25-20.25-10.19-10.19-27.79-27.79-20.14-20.14-13.75-13.75-17.75-17.75-22.19-22.19-9.98-9.98-12.52-12.52-46.81-46.81-51.01-51.01-58.76-58.76-39.47-39.47-69.95-69.95-9.03-9.03-7.25-7.25-7.81-7.81-9.23-9.23-5.72-5.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.716 · range [-69.95, -5.72] · μ -24.189 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=57.0807 · σ=6.3656 · range [40.3681, 64.8259] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +8.74%σ HIGH 11.15%LAST 62.758664.825958.711552.597046.482540.3681μ = 57.0807max 64.8259min 40.3681dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.76% · range [40.37%, 64.83%] · μ 57.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.400 · σ=0.297MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.060 (+1.55σ vs μ)0.7930.3960.000-0.396-0.793μ = -0.400-0.463-0.463-0.463-0.463-0.676-0.676-0.369-0.369-0.645-0.645-0.630-0.630-0.566-0.566-0.637-0.637-0.562-0.562-0.793-0.793-0.634-0.634-0.634-0.634-0.402-0.402-0.368-0.368-0.000-0.0000.1240.124-0.027-0.0270.0800.0800.0600.060v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.060 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2844
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8674
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.8501
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0539
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0656
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7276
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.3616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0182
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8745
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2278
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.626 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.89e-5 · top T=2.00h (35.6%) · top-3 cover 64.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.7e-41.2e-48.3e-54.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.93e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.93e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.24e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.24e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.73e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.73e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.77e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.77e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.97e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.97e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.02e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.02e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.29e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.29e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.01e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.01e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.54e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.54e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 35.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 35.6% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 35.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.670e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-50.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -30.46400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.013
annualized -30.46
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -27.45σ ann 55% · Sortino -17.34 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3294%-2622%-1950%-1278%-606%66%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)54.7%Ann. vol σ-2744.9%Sharpe (ann)-1733.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
16e2e8b14ca5370f20883b91da7963b3842dd07d2b4dd7a6f2b6c4cbf4e7509e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$976
bid $351 · ask $625
Depth within 10bp
$3.37K
bid $2.01K · ask $1.36K
Depth within 50bp
$52.31K
bid $22.61K · ask $29.70K
Mid price
0.008145
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.022
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.797
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0081505.59bp0.0081513FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00816019.03bp0.00816511FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00816929.65bp0.00820720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0081388.10bp0.0081372FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00813315.32bp0.0081305FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00811339.88bp0.00805320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-gmt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.28M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.188 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.58M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.24M
real volume
Net delta
$1.66M
sellers net
Imbalance
-18.83%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gmt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.10% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.008325→0.0081502.102%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.008450→0.0082981.799%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.008377→0.0082621.373%3

/api/asset/hl-gmt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
54.75%
σ per bar = 0.000239
Mean return (annualised)
-1502.84%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-27.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.19%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1420 bars

/api/asset/hl-gmt/risk · same metrics, JSON