HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GALA

GALA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gala · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.82%
realized vol (ann.)
60.21%
max drawdown
0.96%
sharpe
5.01
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
609.10
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.86%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
349.77
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.82%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -2.82%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gala/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH533ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
-2.82%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GALA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0027 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0026, 0.0027] · R²=0.922▼ FALLING -2.72%σ NORMAL 1.10%LAST 0.00260.00270.00270.00260.00260.0026μ = 0.0027max 0.0027min 0.0026dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=22,911,297 · μ=916451.9 · σ=484320.4 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130518,7981,037,5961,556,3942,075,192μ = 9164522,075,19250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2075192 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
533ms
$mark $
$0.0026
$mid $
$0.0026
◉prev-day close
$0.0027
Δ24h Δ %
-2.821%
$24h vol $
$60.30k
◐open interest $
$304.10k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0027 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0026, 0.0027] · R²=0.922▼ FALLING -2.72%σ NORMAL 1.10%LAST 0.00260.00270.00270.00260.00260.0026μ = 0.0027max 0.0027min 0.0026dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0026 · 24h -2.82% · range $[0.0026, 0.0027]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0026, 0.0027] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=32%STRONG BEARISH -2.57%CLOSE 0.0026 vs OPEN 0.0027 (-2.57%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00260.00270.00270.00260.00260.0026μ close = 0.0027O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.11%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.11%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.07%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.07%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.22%)-0.7%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.71%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.71%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.49%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.49%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.45%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.45%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.26%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.49%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.49%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.15%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.04%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.11%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=22,911,297 · μ=916451.9 · σ=484320.4 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130518,7981,037,5961,556,3942,075,192μ = 9164521,097,102 · 52.9% peak1,097,102 · 52.9% peak622,141 · 30.0% peak622,141 · 30.0% peak495,948 · 23.9% peak495,948 · 23.9% peak439,128 · 21.2% peak439,128 · 21.2% peak2,075,1922,075,192 · 100.0% peak2,075,192 · 100.0% peak1,684,561 · 81.2% peak1,684,561 · 81.2% peak954,332 · 46.0% peak954,332 · 46.0% peak539,321 · 26.0% peak539,321 · 26.0% peak498,330 · 24.0% peak498,330 · 24.0% peak598,533 · 28.8% peak598,533 · 28.8% peak468,926 · 22.6% peak468,926 · 22.6% peak879,525 · 42.4% peak879,525 · 42.4% peak1,480,547 · 71.3% peak1,480,547 · 71.3% peak1,180,550 · 56.9% peak1,180,550 · 56.9% peak491,715 · 23.7% peak491,715 · 23.7% peak1,199,159 · 57.8% peak1,199,159 · 57.8% peak720,141 · 34.7% peak720,141 · 34.7% peak1,212,589 · 58.4% peak1,212,589 · 58.4% peak1,042,597 · 50.2% peak1,042,597 · 50.2% peak516,374 · 24.9% peak516,374 · 24.9% peak1,784,527 · 86.0% peak1,784,527 · 86.0% peak1,315,140 · 63.4% peak1,315,140 · 63.4% peak611,081 · 29.4% peak611,081 · 29.4% peak856,800 · 41.3% peak856,800 · 41.3% peak147,038 · 7.1% peak147,038 · 7.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 22911297 · peak 2075192 · CV 0.53

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0026 · skew=0.34 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)65320 2-55.42bpbin -55.42bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -55.42bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-46.37bp 3-37.32bpbin -37.32bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -37.32bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-28.27bpbin -28.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -28.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-19.22bpbin -19.22bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -19.22bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2-10.17bpbin -10.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -10.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-1.12bp 37.93bpbin 7.93bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 7.93bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 116.98bpbin 16.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 16.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 326.03bpbin 26.03bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 26.03bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak35.09bp 144.14bpbin 44.14bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 44.14bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.37 · kurt=-0.28 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0026
Mid price
$0.0026
24h change
-2.82%
Mark–mid spread
7.64 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0027

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.54)
μ MEAN0.0027$95% CI: [0.0026$, 0.0027$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.10%
med MEDIAN0.0027$Q₁ 0.0026$ · Q₃ 0.0027$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0026$Q₁ 0.0026$med 0.0027$Q₃ 0.0027$max 0.0027$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.231approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.542platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.66
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.84
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-40.90
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.114765%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.437
σᵣ STD / h0.262599%σ²ᵣ = 0.069×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.29×
σ ANNUALISED24.58%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.263%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-40.90negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-35.67downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.40approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.05mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.87
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1005.35%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.50%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.502%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.584%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.565%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.09%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.502%VaR₉₉−0.584%ES₉₅−0.565%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK0.27$
−3.09% drawdown over 19h
0.26$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.18% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
28.2 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.230 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0027
Bollinger MA
$0.0026
Bollinger lower
$0.0026

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.027within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.054lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.830strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-16.544significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.830
H = 0.830STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.027k=2+0.054k=3-0.352k=4+0.031k=5+0.0110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.69very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$60.30k
Open interest (USD)
$304.10k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.20x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.49% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.24%BEARISH SESSION -2.75%BEST+0.49%21hWORST-0.60%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.24%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.94%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.75%+0.11%-3.02%-0.11% · 13h-0.11% · 13h-0.11%13h0.19% · 14h0.19% · 14h0.19%14h0.04% · 15h0.04% · 15h0.04%15h-0.34% · 16h-0.34% · 16h-0.34%16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17h-0.60% · 18h-0.60% · 18h-0.60%18h▼ WORST0.23% · 19h0.23% · 19h0.23%19h-0.08% · 20h-0.08% · 20h-0.08%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h★ BEST-0.34% · 22h-0.34% · 22h-0.34%22h-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h-0.15% · 00h-0.15% · 00h-0.15%00h0.04% · 01h0.04% · 01h0.04%01h-0.26% · 02h-0.26% · 02h-0.26%02h-0.15% · 03h-0.15% · 03h-0.15%03h-0.53% · 04h-0.53% · 04h-0.53%04h-0.34% · 05h-0.34% · 05h-0.34%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h-0.23% · 07h-0.23% · 07h-0.23%07h0.27% · 08h0.27% · 08h0.27%08h-0.15% · 09h-0.15% · 09h-0.15%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h0.23% · 12h0.23% · 12h0.23%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.26%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 6BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.49% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.240%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.73%)FINAL-2.73%MAX DD-3.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.11%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9727 · peak 1.0011 · range [0.9701, 1.0011]1.00110.9701break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0011UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.09% · moderate0%-3.09%▼ TROUGH -3.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.09%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.11%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9727 (-2.73%) · max DD -3.09% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-64.09 · σ=55.74UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -5.29 (+1.05σ vs μ)220.30110.150.00-110.15-220.30μ = -64.09-54.67-54.67-30.93-30.93-48.38-48.38-17.96-17.96-18.01-18.01-23.44-23.44-7.31-7.31-17.56-17.56-26.31-26.31-132.55-132.55-111.54-111.54-112.62-112.62-127.02-127.02-220.30-220.30-74.91-74.91-75.05-75.05-69.64-69.64-44.19-44.19-5.29-5.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.293 · range [-220.30, -5.29] · μ -64.088 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=24.8193 · σ=7.5037 · range [12.0773, 37.3458] · R²=0.363▼ FALLING -18.76%σ EXTREME 30.23%LAST 21.095737.345831.028724.711618.394512.0773μ = 24.8193max 37.3458min 12.0773dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 21.10% · range [12.08%, 37.35%] · μ 24.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.121 · σ=0.175MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.269 (-0.85σ vs μ)0.4200.2100.000-0.210-0.420μ = -0.1210.1160.116-0.240-0.240-0.420-0.420-0.131-0.131-0.352-0.352-0.290-0.290-0.150-0.150-0.177-0.177-0.219-0.2190.0160.016-0.117-0.1170.1050.105-0.026-0.026-0.238-0.2380.0710.0710.2110.2110.0430.043-0.221-0.221-0.269-0.269v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.269 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6427
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7252
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8091
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5794
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5674
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8704
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1574
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8749
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8743
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0781
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.976 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.01e-6 · top T=6.00h (21.5%) · top-3 cover 51.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-51.4e-59.1e-64.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.48e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.48e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.81e-5 · 21.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.81e-5 · 21.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.59e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.59e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.90e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.90e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.34e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.34e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.69e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.69e-6 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.12e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.12e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.75e-6 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.75e-6 · 11.6% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 21.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.418e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-36.56×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -22.09400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -22.09
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.28σ ann 58% · Sortino -11.11 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2553%-2029%-1504%-979%-455%70%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)58.2%Ann. vol σ-2127.7%Sharpe (ann)-1111.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0020.0030.0030.0030.0030.003t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age
533ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0c2725b2dc39a06d5d330c8ac9d592b98aabb06c0153a9b1788cbc6eec670423 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.39K
bid $568 · ask $2.82K
Depth within 10bp
$6.29K
bid $1.90K · ask $4.40K
Depth within 50bp
$51.42K
bid $24.37K · ask $27.06K
Mid price
0.002620
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.088
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.187
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gala/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0026213.82bp0.0026211FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0026228.69bp0.0026233FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.002650115.87bp0.00271620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0026195.46bp0.0026182FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00261615.90bp0.0026155FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.002590115.10bp0.00253220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-gala/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$22.91M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gala/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.446 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.04M
real volume
Sell weight
$15.77M
real volume
Net delta
$9.73M
sellers net
Imbalance
-44.61%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
44.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gala/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.81% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.002658→0.0026101.806%4
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z1.0h0.002690→0.0026611.078%2
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.002678→0.0026570.784%2

/api/asset/hl-gala/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
58.19%
σ per bar = 0.000254
Mean return (annualised)
-1238.11%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.28
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.19%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3273 bars

/api/asset/hl-gala/risk · same metrics, JSON