HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FET

FET-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fet · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.54%
realized vol (ann.)
91.47%
max drawdown
2.57%
sharpe
-34.18
ulcer index
1.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2745.01
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1337.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.54%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 31%
  • 24h change +3.54%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-fet/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH214ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.209
24h Δ · live
3.54%
24h vol · live
$3.8M
FET · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2087 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.2034, 0.2148] · R²=0.560▲ RISING +2.69%σ NORMAL 1.23%LAST 0.20890.21480.21200.20910.20630.2034μ = 0.2087max 0.2148min 0.2034dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.21
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,470,228 · μ=738809.1 · σ=524954.6 · CV=0.71STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110501,0861,002,1711,503,2572,004,342μ = 7388092,004,34250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2004342 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
214ms
$mark $
$0.2089
$mid $
$0.209
◉prev-day close
$0.2018
Δ24h Δ %
+3.538%
$24h vol $
$3.82M
◐open interest $
$6.44M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2087 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.2034, 0.2148] · R²=0.560▲ RISING +2.69%σ NORMAL 1.23%LAST 0.20890.21480.21200.20910.20630.2034μ = 0.2087max 0.2148min 0.2034dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2089 · 24h 3.54% · range $[0.2034, 0.2148]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1984, 0.2151] · σ=0.0026 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +4.99%CLOSE 0.2089 vs OPEN 0.1990 (+4.99%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.20890.21510.21090.20670.20260.1984μ close = 0.2087O0.199 H0.206 L0.198 C0.203 (+2.24%)O0.199 H0.206 L0.198 C0.203 (+2.24%)O0.203 H0.208 L0.202 C0.207 (+1.87%)O0.203 H0.208 L0.202 C0.207 (+1.87%)O0.207 H0.208 L0.202 C0.205 (-1.09%)O0.207 H0.208 L0.202 C0.205 (-1.09%)O0.205 H0.209 L0.204 C0.208 (+1.60%)O0.205 H0.209 L0.204 C0.208 (+1.60%)O0.208 H0.209 L0.203 C0.205 (-1.46%)O0.208 H0.209 L0.203 C0.205 (-1.46%)O0.205 H0.212 L0.203 C0.209 (+2.01%)O0.205 H0.212 L0.203 C0.209 (+2.01%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.204 C0.206 (-1.33%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.204 C0.206 (-1.33%)O0.206 H0.208 L0.204 C0.207 (+0.28%)O0.206 H0.208 L0.204 C0.207 (+0.28%)O0.207 H0.207 L0.205 C0.207 (-0.00%)O0.207 H0.207 L0.205 C0.207 (-0.00%)O0.207 H0.212 L0.205 C0.209 (+1.23%)O0.207 H0.212 L0.205 C0.209 (+1.23%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.207 C0.207 (-0.68%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.207 C0.207 (-0.68%)O0.207 H0.209 L0.207 C0.208 (+0.28%)O0.207 H0.209 L0.207 C0.208 (+0.28%)O0.208 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (+0.53%)O0.208 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (+0.53%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.21%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.21%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.67%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.67%)O0.210 H0.215 L0.210 C0.215 (+2.25%)O0.210 H0.215 L0.210 C0.215 (+2.25%)-2.6%O0.215 H0.215 L0.208 C0.209 (-2.56%)O0.215 H0.215 L0.208 C0.209 (-2.56%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.207 C0.211 (+0.93%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.207 C0.211 (+0.93%)O0.212 H0.215 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.92%)O0.212 H0.215 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.92%)O0.210 H0.213 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.09%)O0.210 H0.213 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.09%)O0.210 H0.214 L0.209 C0.212 (+0.92%)O0.210 H0.214 L0.209 C0.212 (+0.92%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.210 C0.213 (+0.51%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.210 C0.213 (+0.51%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.210 C0.211 (-0.71%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.210 C0.211 (-0.71%)O0.211 H0.211 L0.210 C0.210 (-0.54%)O0.211 H0.211 L0.210 C0.210 (-0.54%)O0.210 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.59%)O0.210 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.59%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,470,228 · μ=738809.1 · σ=524954.6 · CV=0.71STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110501,0861,002,1711,503,2572,004,342μ = 738809653,628 · 32.6% peak653,628 · 32.6% peak834,715 · 41.6% peak834,715 · 41.6% peak623,289 · 31.1% peak623,289 · 31.1% peak1,124,416 · 56.1% peak1,124,416 · 56.1% peak878,909 · 43.9% peak878,909 · 43.9% peak1,088,921 · 54.3% peak1,088,921 · 54.3% peak1,045,068 · 52.1% peak1,045,068 · 52.1% peak1,847,879 · 92.2% peak1,847,879 · 92.2% peak253,531 · 12.6% peak253,531 · 12.6% peak607,340 · 30.3% peak607,340 · 30.3% peak354,848 · 17.7% peak354,848 · 17.7% peak195,207 · 9.7% peak195,207 · 9.7% peak192,304 · 9.6% peak192,304 · 9.6% peak1,511,302 · 75.4% peak1,511,302 · 75.4% peak789,667 · 39.4% peak789,667 · 39.4% peak1,076,217 · 53.7% peak1,076,217 · 53.7% peak2,004,3422,004,342 · 100.0% peak2,004,342 · 100.0% peak425,519 · 21.2% peak425,519 · 21.2% peak1,188,328 · 59.3% peak1,188,328 · 59.3% peak650,686 · 32.5% peak650,686 · 32.5% peak196,417 · 9.8% peak196,417 · 9.8% peak231,751 · 11.6% peak231,751 · 11.6% peak258,331 · 12.9% peak258,331 · 12.9% peak97,857 · 4.9% peak97,857 · 4.9% peak339,756 · 17.0% peak339,756 · 17.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18470228 · peak 2004342 · CV 0.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0012 · σ=0.0113 · skew=-0.16 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.59 (mesokurtic)43210 1-233.43bpbin -233.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -233.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-193.94bp 2-154.44bpbin -154.44bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -154.44bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-114.95bpbin -114.95bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -114.95bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-75.45bpbin -75.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -75.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-35.96bpbin -35.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -35.96bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 43.54bpbin 3.54bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 3.54bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 343.03bpbin 43.03bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 43.03bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 382.53bpbin 82.53bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 82.53bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1122.02bpbin 122.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 122.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2161.52bpbin 161.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 161.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2201.01bpbin 201.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 201.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.14 · kurt=-0.45 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2089
Mid price
$0.209
24h change
+3.54%
Mark–mid spread
2.15 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2018

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2087$95% CI: [0.2077$, 0.2097$]
σ STD DEV0.0026$σ² = 0.066×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.23%
med MEDIAN0.2089$Q₁ 0.2071$ · Q₃ 0.2099$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0114$ · IQR 0.0028$ (1.349σ→0.0035$)
min 0.2034$Q₁ 0.2071$med 0.2089$Q₃ 0.2099$max 0.2148$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.111approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.121mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.44
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.77
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.110751%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.094
σᵣ STD / h1.182562%σ²ᵣ = 1.398×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.68×
σ ANNUALISED110.68%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.183%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.77excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.54strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.15approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.26mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+970.18%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.52%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.525%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.307%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.043%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.74%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.525%VaR₉₉−2.307%ES₉₅−2.043%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK21.48$
−2.74% drawdown over 9h
20.89$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.34× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.51× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.81% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
52.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.434 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2137
Bollinger MA
$0.2095
Bollinger lower
$0.2052

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.604negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.328lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.702strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.410significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.702
H = 0.702STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.604k=2+0.328k=3-0.263k=4+0.146k=5-0.2310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.82M
Open interest (USD)
$6.44M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.59x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.920× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.960× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.980×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.21% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 0.95%MILD BULLISH +2.66%BEST+2.21%03hWORST-2.53%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.95%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.88%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.24% · Σ +1.89%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.11%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.66%+5.43%0.00%1.78% · 13h1.78% · 13h1.78%13h-1.06% · 14h-1.06% · 14h-1.06%14h1.53% · 15h1.53% · 15h1.53%15h-1.55% · 16h-1.55% · 16h-1.55%16h1.95% · 17h1.95% · 17h1.95%17h-1.35% · 18h-1.35% · 18h-1.35%18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h-0.03% · 20h-0.03% · 20h-0.03%20h1.21% · 21h1.21% · 21h1.21%21h-0.81% · 22h-0.81% · 22h-0.81%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.58% · 00h0.58% · 00h0.58%00h-0.12% · 01h-0.12% · 01h-0.12%01h0.63% · 02h0.63% · 02h0.63%02h2.21% · 03h2.21% · 03h2.21%03h★ BEST-2.53% · 04h-2.53% · 04h-2.53%04h▼ WORST0.80% · 05h0.80% · 05h0.80%05h-0.67% · 06h-0.67% · 06h-0.67%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.88% · 08h0.88% · 08h0.88%08h0.63% · 09h0.63% · 09h0.63%09h-0.88% · 10h-0.88% · 10h-0.88%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-0.49% · 12h-0.49% · 12h-0.49%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.89%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.21% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 0.946%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.53%FINAL+2.53%MAX DD-2.79%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.47%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0253 · peak 1.0547 · range [1.0000, 1.0547]1.05471.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0547UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.79% · moderate0%-2.79%▼ TROUGH -2.79%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.79%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.55%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -1.35%bar 7-9 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.79%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0253 (2.53%) · max DD -2.79% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=9.98 · σ=15.67PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -8.60 (-1.19σ vs μ)41.2320.610.00-20.61-41.23μ = 9.9811.8511.85-2.03-2.038.968.965.745.7415.8615.86-8.67-8.6733.3933.3923.0823.0837.4737.4741.2341.239.659.6515.5515.553.123.124.164.166.506.50-10.84-10.8415.2215.22-12.08-12.08-8.60-8.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.602 · range [-12.08, 41.23] · μ 9.977 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=111.4878 · σ=36.9088 · range [62.5617, 158.8127] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -59.16%σ EXTREME 33.11%LAST 64.8651158.8127134.7500110.687286.624462.5617μ = 111.4878max 158.8127min 62.5617dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 64.87% · range [62.56%, 158.81%] · μ 111.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.433 · σ=0.324MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.279 (+2.20σ vs μ)0.8670.4340.000-0.434-0.867μ = -0.433-0.818-0.818-0.867-0.867-0.809-0.809-0.649-0.649-0.546-0.546-0.382-0.382-0.567-0.567-0.585-0.585-0.497-0.4970.0830.083-0.401-0.401-0.530-0.530-0.541-0.541-0.530-0.530-0.605-0.605-0.222-0.222-0.224-0.2240.1870.1870.2790.279v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.279 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
5 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence5 reject·1 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1516
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9270
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
17.4025
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0040
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.2571
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0871
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0369
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7635
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9809
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0476
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.397 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.86e-4 · top T=2.00h (55.6%) · top-3 cover 78.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-39.3e-46.2e-43.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.86e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.86e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.86e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.86e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.66e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.66e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.67e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.67e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.23e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.23e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.92e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.92e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.87e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.87e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-3 · 55.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-3 · 55.6% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 55.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.228e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-23.73×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.75400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -26.75
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -25.00σ ann 105% · Sortino -22.70 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3001%-2375%-1750%-1124%-499%126%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)105.4%Ann. vol σ-2500.4%Sharpe (ann)-2269.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1990.2040.2090.2140.2190.224t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
214ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:11 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ce3cf88f3d0249ef0958f886dc583656e4bb2d6a40ddd999ee92eda8dd418fd7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.58K
bid $2.27K · ask $305
Depth within 10bp
$54.97K
bid $14.35K · ask $40.62K
Depth within 50bp
$127.78K
bid $47.06K · ask $80.71K
Mid price
0.208985
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.262
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.509
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fet/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2090734.22bp0.2090903FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2091095.95bp0.2091509FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.20921611.03bp0.20933020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2089232.96bp0.2089202FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2088476.60bp0.2087909FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.20874911.27bp0.20861020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-fet/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$18.47M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fet/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.033 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.61M
real volume
Sell weight
$9.21M
real volume
Net delta
$595.89K
sellers net
Imbalance
-3.34%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
3.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-fet/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.50% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.214800→0.2094302.500%4
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.212860→0.2089201.851%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms0.208070→0.2048601.543%1

/api/asset/hl-fet/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
105.37%
σ per bar = 0.000460
Mean return (annualised)
-2634.68%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-25.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.58%
peak 0.21 → trough 0.21 over 773 bars

/api/asset/hl-fet/risk · same metrics, JSON