HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENS

ENS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ens · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.96%
realized vol (ann.)
38.63%
max drawdown
0.90%
sharpe
9.72
ulcer index
0.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.37%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
878.62
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
474.61
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ens/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4.905
24h Δ · live
-0.96%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
ENS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=4.9262 · σ=0.0300 · range [4.8623, 4.9940] · R²=0.375▼ FALLING -0.60%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 4.90464.99404.96114.92824.89524.8623μ = 4.9262max 4.9940min 4.8623dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4.90
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=15,585 · μ=623.4 · σ=328.4 · CV=0.53RISING +35% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1404118221,2331,643μ = 6231,643.3950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1643 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.4s
$mark $
$4.905
$mid $
$4.9057
◉prev-day close
$4.9525
Δ24h Δ %
-0.959%
$24h vol $
$75.31k
◐open interest $
$1.43M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=4.9262 · σ=0.0300 · range [4.8623, 4.9940] · R²=0.375▼ FALLING -0.60%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 4.90464.99404.96114.92824.89524.8623μ = 4.9262max 4.9940min 4.8623dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4.9050 · 24h -0.96% · range $[4.8623, 4.9940]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [4.8599, 5.0113] · σ=0.0300 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%BEARISH -1.03%CLOSE 4.9046 vs OPEN 4.9554 (-1.03%)&#9660; CLOSE 4.90465.01134.97344.93564.89784.8599μ close = 4.9262O4.955 H4.965 L4.934 C4.934 (-0.43%)O4.955 H4.965 L4.934 C4.934 (-0.43%)O4.931 H4.940 L4.921 C4.931 (+0.02%)O4.931 H4.940 L4.921 C4.931 (+0.02%)O4.932 H4.955 L4.914 C4.934 (+0.04%)O4.932 H4.955 L4.914 C4.934 (+0.04%)O4.933 H4.966 L4.925 C4.963 (+0.61%)O4.933 H4.966 L4.925 C4.963 (+0.61%)O4.962 H4.962 L4.911 C4.931 (-0.62%)O4.962 H4.962 L4.911 C4.931 (-0.62%)O4.926 H4.952 L4.913 C4.920 (-0.11%)O4.926 H4.952 L4.913 C4.920 (-0.11%)O4.921 H4.946 L4.920 C4.937 (+0.32%)O4.921 H4.946 L4.920 C4.937 (+0.32%)O4.940 H4.965 L4.929 C4.946 (+0.13%)O4.940 H4.965 L4.929 C4.946 (+0.13%)O4.948 H4.968 L4.948 C4.965 (+0.36%)O4.948 H4.968 L4.948 C4.965 (+0.36%)O4.967 H5.011 L4.955 C4.994 (+0.54%)O4.967 H5.011 L4.955 C4.994 (+0.54%)O4.993 H4.995 L4.954 C4.954 (-0.78%)O4.993 H4.995 L4.954 C4.954 (-0.78%)O4.953 H4.975 L4.947 C4.949 (-0.08%)O4.953 H4.975 L4.947 C4.949 (-0.08%)-0.9%O4.952 H4.952 L4.908 C4.908 (-0.90%)O4.952 H4.952 L4.908 C4.908 (-0.90%)O4.912 H4.960 L4.911 C4.953 (+0.84%)O4.912 H4.960 L4.911 C4.953 (+0.84%)O4.951 H4.982 L4.932 C4.944 (-0.15%)O4.951 H4.982 L4.932 C4.944 (-0.15%)O4.943 H4.943 L4.919 C4.933 (-0.21%)O4.943 H4.943 L4.919 C4.933 (-0.21%)O4.929 H4.950 L4.896 C4.909 (-0.42%)O4.929 H4.950 L4.896 C4.909 (-0.42%)O4.910 H4.910 L4.877 C4.905 (-0.10%)O4.910 H4.910 L4.877 C4.905 (-0.10%)O4.906 H4.920 L4.862 C4.862 (-0.88%)O4.906 H4.920 L4.862 C4.862 (-0.88%)O4.861 H4.892 L4.860 C4.885 (+0.48%)O4.861 H4.892 L4.860 C4.885 (+0.48%)O4.882 H4.920 L4.881 C4.895 (+0.27%)O4.882 H4.920 L4.881 C4.895 (+0.27%)O4.895 H4.917 L4.868 C4.913 (+0.37%)O4.895 H4.917 L4.868 C4.913 (+0.37%)O4.915 H4.923 L4.881 C4.881 (-0.70%)O4.915 H4.923 L4.881 C4.881 (-0.70%)O4.881 H4.908 L4.881 C4.905 (+0.50%)O4.881 H4.908 L4.881 C4.905 (+0.50%)O4.910 H4.910 L4.900 C4.905 (-0.11%)O4.910 H4.910 L4.900 C4.905 (-0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=15,585 · μ=623.4 · σ=328.4 · CV=0.53RISING +35% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1404118221,2331,643μ = 623695.16 · 42.3% peak695.16 · 42.3% peak802.42 · 48.8% peak802.42 · 48.8% peak422.65 · 25.7% peak422.65 · 25.7% peak320.76 · 19.5% peak320.76 · 19.5% peak1,138.23 · 69.3% peak1,138.23 · 69.3% peak506.74 · 30.8% peak506.74 · 30.8% peak470.33 · 28.6% peak470.33 · 28.6% peak543.02 · 33.0% peak543.02 · 33.0% peak420.8 · 25.6% peak420.8 · 25.6% peak311.85 · 19.0% peak311.85 · 19.0% peak285.57 · 17.4% peak285.57 · 17.4% peak710.32 · 43.2% peak710.32 · 43.2% peak1,161.54 · 70.7% peak1,161.54 · 70.7% peak602.25 · 36.6% peak602.25 · 36.6% peak394.73 · 24.0% peak394.73 · 24.0% peak396.76 · 24.1% peak396.76 · 24.1% peak569.66 · 34.7% peak569.66 · 34.7% peak862.08 · 52.5% peak862.08 · 52.5% peak731.98 · 44.5% peak731.98 · 44.5% peak430.29 · 26.2% peak430.29 · 26.2% peak629.87 · 38.3% peak629.87 · 38.3% peak1,643.391,643.39 · 100.0% peak1,643.39 · 100.0% peak927.59 · 56.4% peak927.59 · 56.4% peak374.19 · 22.8% peak374.19 · 22.8% peak232.66 · 14.2% peak232.66 · 14.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 15585 · peak 1643 · CV 0.53

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0048 · skew=-0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.03 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 3-79.79bpbin -79.79bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -79.79bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-64.89bpbin -64.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -64.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-50.00bpbin -50.00bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -50.00bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-35.11bp 3-20.22bpbin -20.22bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -20.22bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-5.32bpbin -5.32bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -5.32bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 19.57bpbin 9.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 9.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 224.46bpbin 24.46bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 24.46bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 439.35bpbin 39.35bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 39.35bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 354.25bpbin 54.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 54.25bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak69.14bp 184.03bpbin 84.03bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 84.03bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=-0.90 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4.905
Mid price
$4.9057
24h change
-0.96%
Mark–mid spread
1.43 bps
Prev-day close
$4.9525

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN4.9262$95% CI: [4.9145$, 4.9380$]
σ STD DEV0.0300$σ² = 8.990×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.61%
med MEDIAN4.9313$Q₁ 4.9049$ · Q₃ 4.9461$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1317$ · IQR 0.0412$ (1.349σ→0.0404$)
min 4.8623$Q₁ 4.9049$med 4.9313$Q₃ 4.9461$max 4.9940$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.017approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.396mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.39
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-4.69
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.025071%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.050
σᵣ STD / h0.500487%σ²ᵣ = 0.250×10⁻⁴ · CV = 19.96×
σ ANNUALISED46.84%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.500%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-4.69negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-83.28drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.82mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -83.28
EXPECTED EDGE-219.62%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.83%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.830%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.864%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.854%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.64%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.830%VaR₉₉−0.864%ES₉₅−0.854%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK499.40$
−2.64% drawdown over 9h
486.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.71% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.357 · within band
Bollinger upper
$4.9878
Bollinger MA
$4.9231
Bollinger lower
$4.8584

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.292within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.073lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.583persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.713significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.583
H = 0.583PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.292k=2+0.073k=3-0.351k=4+0.158k=5-0.2020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.46high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$75.31k
Open interest (USD)
$1.43M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.91% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.41%MILD BEARISH -0.60%BEST+0.91%01hWORST-0.87%06hTYPICAL |Δ|0.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.31%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.98%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.60%+1.20%-1.47%-0.06% · 13h-0.06% · 13h-0.06%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.57% · 15h0.57% · 15h0.57%15h-0.65% · 16h-0.65% · 16h-0.65%16h-0.21% · 17h-0.21% · 17h-0.21%17h0.33% · 18h0.33% · 18h0.33%18h0.19% · 19h0.19% · 19h0.19%19h0.39% · 20h0.39% · 20h0.39%20h0.58% · 21h0.58% · 21h0.58%21h-0.80% · 22h-0.80% · 22h-0.80%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h-0.84% · 00h-0.84% · 00h-0.84%00h0.91% · 01h0.91% · 01h0.91%01h★ BEST-0.18% · 02h-0.18% · 02h-0.18%02h-0.23% · 03h-0.23% · 03h-0.23%03h-0.49% · 04h-0.49% · 04h-0.49%04h-0.07% · 05h-0.07% · 05h-0.07%05h-0.87% · 06h-0.87% · 06h-0.87%06h▼ WORST0.46% · 07h0.46% · 07h0.46%07h0.21% · 08h0.21% · 08h0.21%08h0.37% · 09h0.37% · 09h0.37%09h-0.66% · 10h-0.66% · 10h-0.66%10h0.49% · 11h0.49% · 11h0.49%11h-0.01% · 12h-0.01% · 12h-0.01%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.98%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.91% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.406%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.63%)FINAL-0.63%MAX DD-2.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.20%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9937 · peak 1.0120 · range [0.9852, 1.0120]1.01200.9852break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0120UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.65% · moderate0%-2.65%▼ TROUGH -2.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.65%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 5-8 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.06%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9937 (-0.63%) · max DD -2.65% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-5.97 · σ=21.98MIXED EDGELAST 30.96 (+1.68σ vs μ)48.6924.350.00-24.35-48.69μ = -5.971.861.8610.8810.8821.5021.5021.6621.6614.8514.8518.2518.25-15.29-15.292.892.89-9.45-9.45-30.38-30.38-24.69-24.69-23.66-23.66-24.27-24.27-48.69-48.69-32.15-32.15-11.79-11.79-15.94-15.94-0.00-0.0030.9630.96v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 30.963 · range [-48.69, 30.96] · μ -5.970 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.5052 · σ=8.7686 · range [39.8327, 68.2898] · R²=0.042▲ RISING +2.54%σ EXTREME 17.36%LAST 40.843768.289861.175554.061246.947039.8327μ = 50.5052max 68.2898min 39.8327dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 40.84% · range [39.83%, 68.29%] · μ 50.51% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.256 · σ=0.223MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.502 (-1.10σ vs μ)0.5950.2980.000-0.298-0.595μ = -0.256-0.298-0.298-0.227-0.227-0.141-0.1410.3330.333-0.233-0.233-0.046-0.0460.0070.007-0.299-0.299-0.506-0.506-0.394-0.394-0.439-0.439-0.439-0.439-0.049-0.049-0.595-0.595-0.242-0.242-0.106-0.106-0.256-0.256-0.433-0.433-0.502-0.502v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.502 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6658
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2443
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1420
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4203
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5347
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0339
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3291
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.703 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.11e-5 · top T=2.00h (45.7%) · top-3 cover 78.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-41.3e-48.5e-54.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 17.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 17.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.05e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.05e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.89e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.89e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.94e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.94e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 45.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 45.7% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 45.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.733e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-34.18×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.66400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -12.66
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -556% · APY -100% · Sharpe -13.79σ ann 40% · Sortino -8.47 · n 4999
-1654%-1314%-973%-633%-292%48%-556.0%APR (simple)-99.6%APY (compound)40.3%Ann. vol σ-1378.6%Sharpe (ann)-846.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.6674.7634.8604.9565.0525.149t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
2.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
623b99811db78902543fb56db1f54d66d47146d51bb6bad2eff7ba761e329d10 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.95K
bid $1.28K · ask $672
Depth within 10bp
$6.30K
bid $4.30K · ask $2.00K
Depth within 50bp
$64.86K
bid $12.98K · ask $51.88K
Mid price
4.905700
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.417
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.787
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4.90743.44bp4.90862FILLED
BUY$10.00K4.91039.35bp4.91095FILLED
BUY$100.00K4.926842.96bp4.980020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K4.90452.43bp4.90423FILLED
SELL$10.00K4.899013.70bp4.890113FILLED
SELL$100.00K4.870571.72bp4.830420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ens/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$4.0000–$5.0000★25$15.58K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.171 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.17K
real volume
Sell weight
$8.72K
real volume
Net delta
$2.55K
sellers net
Imbalance
-17.13%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ens/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.83% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h4.9528→4.86231.827%3
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h4.9940→4.90771.728%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h4.9627→4.92040.852%3

/api/asset/hl-ens/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.33%
σ per bar = 0.000176
Mean return (annualised)
-556.05%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.79
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.81%
peak 4.95 → trough 4.86 over 1690 bars

/api/asset/hl-ens/risk · same metrics, JSON