HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENA

ENA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ena · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.52%
realized vol (ann.)
63.79%
max drawdown
1.94%
sharpe
-29.88
ulcer index
1.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.95%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1662.14
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1029.35
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.52%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
3.11%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.52%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ena/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.082
24h Δ · live
-1.52%
24h vol · live
$4.8M
ENA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0842 · σ=0.0011 · range [0.0823, 0.0866] · R²=0.766▼ FALLING -2.26%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.08240.08660.08550.08440.08340.0823μ = 0.0842max 0.0866min 0.0823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 43.8%Short fee 56.2%SHORT FEE56.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.989 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
43.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
56.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000356% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=60,789,953 · μ=2431598.1 · σ=2032664.8 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=602,147,7224,295,4446,443,1668,590,888μ = 24315988,590,88850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8590888 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
$mark $
$0.0824
$mid $
$0.0824
◉prev-day close
$0.0837
Δ24h Δ %
-1.523%
$24h vol $
$4.84M
◐open interest $
$19.82M
%funding (1h)
0.000356%
%funding (yr)
+3.11%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0842 · σ=0.0011 · range [0.0823, 0.0866] · R²=0.766▼ FALLING -2.26%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.08240.08660.08550.08440.08340.0823μ = 0.0842max 0.0866min 0.0823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0824 · 24h -1.52% · range $[0.0823, 0.0866]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0822, 0.0869] · σ=0.0011 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0824 vs OPEN 0.0825 (-0.13%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08240.08690.08570.08450.08340.0822μ close = 0.08422.2%O0.083 H0.085 L0.082 C0.084 (+2.18%)O0.083 H0.085 L0.082 C0.084 (+2.18%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+1.50%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+1.50%)O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.39%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.39%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=60,789,953 · μ=2431598.1 · σ=2032664.8 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=602,147,7224,295,4446,443,1668,590,888μ = 24315988,590,8888,590,888 · 100.0% peak8,590,888 · 100.0% peak5,082,141 · 59.2% peak5,082,141 · 59.2% peak4,904,941 · 57.1% peak4,904,941 · 57.1% peak7,023,868 · 81.8% peak7,023,868 · 81.8% peak2,590,992 · 30.2% peak2,590,992 · 30.2% peak2,951,476 · 34.4% peak2,951,476 · 34.4% peak639,272 · 7.4% peak639,272 · 7.4% peak1,459,042 · 17.0% peak1,459,042 · 17.0% peak1,376,598 · 16.0% peak1,376,598 · 16.0% peak2,600,157 · 30.3% peak2,600,157 · 30.3% peak1,599,097 · 18.6% peak1,599,097 · 18.6% peak1,032,073 · 12.0% peak1,032,073 · 12.0% peak1,244,802 · 14.5% peak1,244,802 · 14.5% peak1,083,674 · 12.6% peak1,083,674 · 12.6% peak3,031,884 · 35.3% peak3,031,884 · 35.3% peak2,487,321 · 29.0% peak2,487,321 · 29.0% peak433,674 · 5.0% peak433,674 · 5.0% peak2,155,119 · 25.1% peak2,155,119 · 25.1% peak2,546,759 · 29.6% peak2,546,759 · 29.6% peak2,727,507 · 31.7% peak2,727,507 · 31.7% peak1,345,934 · 15.7% peak1,345,934 · 15.7% peak1,595,782 · 18.6% peak1,595,782 · 18.6% peak1,229,937 · 14.3% peak1,229,937 · 14.3% peak988,475 · 11.5% peak988,475 · 11.5% peak68,540 · 0.8% peak68,540 · 0.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 60789953 · peak 8590888 · CV 0.84

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0084 · skew=-0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)43210 3-162.21bpbin -162.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -162.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak-135.16bp 2-108.11bpbin -108.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -108.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-81.05bpbin -81.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -81.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-54.00bp 4-26.95bpbin -26.95bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -26.95bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 40.10bpbin 0.10bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 327.15bpbin 27.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 27.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 354.21bpbin 54.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 54.21bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 181.26bpbin 81.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 81.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2108.31bpbin 108.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 108.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1135.36bpbin 135.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 135.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.29 · kurt=-0.56 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0824
Mid price
$0.0824
24h change
-1.52%
Mark–mid spread
0.36 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0837

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0842$95% CI: [0.0838$, 0.0846$]
σ STD DEV0.0011$σ² = 0.013×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.34%
med MEDIAN0.0843$Q₁ 0.0835$ · Q₃ 0.0848$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0043$ · IQR 0.0013$ (1.349σ→0.0015$)
min 0.0823$Q₁ 0.0835$med 0.0843$Q₃ 0.0848$max 0.0866$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.121approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.740mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.86
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.28
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.095304%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.110
σᵣ STD / h0.868032%σ²ᵣ = 0.753×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.11×
σ ANNUALISED81.24%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.868%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.28negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.20downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.31approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.40mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.90
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-834.86%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.586%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.721%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.678%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.01%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.586%VaR₉₉−1.721%ES₉₅−1.678%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK8.66$
−5.01% drawdown over 20h
8.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.104 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0857
Bollinger MA
$0.0839
Bollinger lower
$0.0820

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.343within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.003lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.754strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.667significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.754
H = 0.754STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.343k=2-0.003k=3-0.001k=4-0.112k=5+0.0530+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$4.84M
Open interest (USD)
$19.82M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.000356%
Funding (annualised)
+3.11%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.49% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.66%MILD BEARISH -2.29%BEST+1.49%13hWORST-1.76%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.66%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.29%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.09%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.39%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.29%+2.68%-2.46%1.49% · 13h1.49% · 13h1.49%13h★ BEST1.19% · 14h1.19% · 14h1.19%14h-1.60% · 15h-1.60% · 15h-1.60%15h0.96% · 16h0.96% · 16h0.96%16h-1.14% · 17h-1.14% · 17h-1.14%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h-0.27% · 19h-0.27% · 19h-0.27%19h0.17% · 20h0.17% · 20h0.17%20h0.81% · 21h0.81% · 21h0.81%21h-1.76% · 22h-1.76% · 22h-1.76%22h▼ WORST-0.03% · 23h-0.03% · 23h-0.03%23h0.52% · 00h0.52% · 00h0.52%00h-0.07% · 01h-0.07% · 01h-0.07%01h0.35% · 02h0.35% · 02h0.35%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h-0.83% · 04h-0.83% · 04h-0.83%04h0.15% · 05h0.15% · 05h0.15%05h-1.02% · 06h-1.02% · 06h-1.02%06h0.03% · 07h0.03% · 07h0.03%07h0.01% · 08h0.01% · 08h0.01%08h0.65% · 09h0.65% · 09h0.65%09h-1.52% · 10h-1.52% · 10h-1.52%10h0.44% · 11h0.44% · 11h0.44%11h-0.26% · 12h-0.26% · 12h-0.26%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.39%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.49% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.660%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.35%)FINAL-2.35%MAX DD-5.07%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.69%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9765 · peak 1.0269 · range [0.9748, 1.0269]1.02690.9748break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0269UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.07% · significant0%-5.07%▼ TROUGH -5.07%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.07%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.07%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9765 (-2.35%) · max DD -5.07% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-21.79 · σ=18.56UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -13.31 (+0.46σ vs μ)59.7229.860.00-29.86-59.72μ = -21.796.786.78-16.83-16.83-37.73-37.734.034.03-42.74-42.74-25.79-25.79-9.67-9.67-6.15-6.15-2.96-2.96-23.50-23.50-9.68-9.68-3.43-3.43-46.98-46.98-43.39-43.39-59.72-59.72-24.70-24.70-32.41-32.41-25.75-25.75-13.31-13.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -13.310 · range [-59.72, 6.78] · μ -21.786 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.9270 · σ=20.4897 · range [44.4522, 121.6764] · R²=0.406▼ FALLING -41.24%σ EXTREME 27.72%LAST 71.5005121.6764102.370483.064363.758244.4522μ = 73.9270max 121.6764min 44.4522dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 71.50% · range [44.45%, 121.68%] · μ 73.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.350 · σ=0.221MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.623 (-1.23σ vs μ)0.7370.3680.000-0.368-0.737μ = -0.350-0.275-0.275-0.737-0.737-0.629-0.629-0.154-0.154-0.210-0.210-0.409-0.409-0.338-0.338-0.325-0.325-0.358-0.3580.0050.0050.0560.056-0.074-0.074-0.285-0.285-0.501-0.501-0.613-0.613-0.239-0.239-0.405-0.405-0.531-0.531-0.623-0.623v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.623 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5450
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7615
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.6758
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5993
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2068
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6696
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8188
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0064
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1621
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.342 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.35e-5 · top T=2.40h (27.1%) · top-3 cover 58.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.4e-41.8e-41.2e-46.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.71e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.52e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.52e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.71e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.71e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.98e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.98e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.37e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.37e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.39e-4 · 27.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.39e-4 · 27.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.57e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.57e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.17e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.17e-5 · 3.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 27.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.823e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-43.91×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.03400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -26.03
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -32.68σ ann 74% · Sortino -31.36 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3922%-3119%-2317%-1515%-713%89%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)74.4%Ann. vol σ-3268.0%Sharpe (ann)-3135.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0790.0810.0830.0850.0860.088t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0e7428ffb27313f75a926ec594249aa45189b879bff58a45bf8a6267e036353a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$26.45K
bid $10.92K · ask $15.53K
Depth within 10bp
$67.12K
bid $28.52K · ask $38.61K
Depth within 50bp
$67.12K
bid $28.52K · ask $38.61K
Mid price
0.082422
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.150
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.357
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ena/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0824341.40bp0.0824341FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0824412.20bp0.0824517FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0824665.31bp0.08248920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0824111.40bp0.0824111FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0823933.52bp0.08238310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0823765.62bp0.08235420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+3.556e-6
0.00036% / hr
Annualised APR
3.117%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
117.2d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
117.2d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-3.117%117.2d3.21y
SHORTRECEIVE3.117%117.2d3.21y

/api/asset/hl-ena/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$60.79M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ena/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.136 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$29.64M
real volume
Sell weight
$22.55M
real volume
Net delta
$7.09M
buyers net
Imbalance
13.58%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ena/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.35% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h0.086618→0.0845802.353%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.084580→0.0829631.912%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.085418→0.0839011.776%3

/api/asset/hl-ena/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
74.42%
σ per bar = 0.000325
Mean return (annualised)
-2431.91%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.17%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 3075 bars

/api/asset/hl-ena/risk · same metrics, JSON