HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DYM

DYM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dym · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.31%
realized vol (ann.)
68.39%
max drawdown
1.40%
sharpe
2.26
ulcer index
0.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
198.25
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.30%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
118.92
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.31%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +1.31%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 11.8bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dym/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.017
24h Δ · live
1.31%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
DYM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0172 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0169, 0.0177] · R²=0.536▲ RISING +0.47%σ NORMAL 1.38%LAST 0.01700.01770.01750.01730.01710.0169μ = 0.0172max 0.0177min 0.0169dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=17,578,275 · μ=703131.0 · σ=1148798.0 · CV=1.63BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1301,240,2592,480,5173,720,7764,961,034μ = 7031314,961,034.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4961034 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
$mark $
$0.017
$mid $
$0.017
◉prev-day close
$0.0168
Δ24h Δ %
+1.310%
$24h vol $
$304.71k
◐open interest $
$236.52k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0172 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0169, 0.0177] · R²=0.536▲ RISING +0.47%σ NORMAL 1.38%LAST 0.01700.01770.01750.01730.01710.0169μ = 0.0172max 0.0177min 0.0169dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0170 · 24h 1.31% · range $[0.0169, 0.0177]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0168, 0.0186] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +1.25%CLOSE 0.0170 vs OPEN 0.0168 (+1.25%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01700.01860.01820.01770.01720.0168μ close = 0.0172O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.77%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.77%)4.8%O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+4.79%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+4.79%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.19%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.19%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.06%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.06%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.23%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.23%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+0.40%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (+0.40%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.51%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.51%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.11%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.11%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.12%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.52%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.52%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.46%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.46%)O0.017 H0.019 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.70%)O0.017 H0.019 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.68%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.68%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.41%)O0.017 H0.018 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.41%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.16%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.16%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.94%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.94%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.65%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.06%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=17,578,275 · μ=703131.0 · σ=1148798.0 · CV=1.63BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1301,240,2592,480,5173,720,7764,961,034μ = 703131252,326.6 · 5.1% peak252,326.6 · 5.1% peak962,296.7 · 19.4% peak962,296.7 · 19.4% peak3,513,097.7 · 70.8% peak3,513,097.7 · 70.8% peak1,420,595.9 · 28.6% peak1,420,595.9 · 28.6% peak542,591 · 10.9% peak542,591 · 10.9% peak323,288.1 · 6.5% peak323,288.1 · 6.5% peak225,258.2 · 4.5% peak225,258.2 · 4.5% peak344,927.2 · 7.0% peak344,927.2 · 7.0% peak319,283.7 · 6.4% peak319,283.7 · 6.4% peak326,059.3 · 6.6% peak326,059.3 · 6.6% peak232,614.4 · 4.7% peak232,614.4 · 4.7% peak163,563 · 3.3% peak163,563 · 3.3% peak175,264.5 · 3.5% peak175,264.5 · 3.5% peak163,853.3 · 3.3% peak163,853.3 · 3.3% peak132,485 · 2.7% peak132,485 · 2.7% peak4,961,034.34,961,034.3 · 100.0% peak4,961,034.3 · 100.0% peak536,418.6 · 10.8% peak536,418.6 · 10.8% peak1,580,530.4 · 31.9% peak1,580,530.4 · 31.9% peak437,262 · 8.8% peak437,262 · 8.8% peak224,923.9 · 4.5% peak224,923.9 · 4.5% peak121,140 · 2.4% peak121,140 · 2.4% peak140,004.3 · 2.8% peak140,004.3 · 2.8% peak178,627.2 · 3.6% peak178,627.2 · 3.6% peak143,233.9 · 2.9% peak143,233.9 · 2.9% peak157,595.7 · 3.2% peak157,595.7 · 3.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 17578275 · peak 4961034 · CV 1.63

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0113 · skew=1.94 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.78 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 3-143.09bpbin -143.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -143.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 2-90.96bpbin -90.96bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -90.96bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-38.84bpbin -38.84bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -38.84bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 613.28bpbin 13.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 13.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 565.41bpbin 65.41bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 65.41bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 1117.53bpbin 117.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 117.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak169.65bp221.78bp273.90bp326.02bp378.15bp 1430.27bpbin 430.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 430.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.08 · kurt=6.34 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.78σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.017
Mid price
$0.017
24h change
+1.31%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0168

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.24)
μ MEAN0.0172$95% CI: [0.0172$, 0.0173$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.38%
med MEDIAN0.0172$Q₁ 0.0170$ · Q₃ 0.0174$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0169$Q₁ 0.0170$med 0.0172$Q₃ 0.0174$max 0.0177$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.314approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.235platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.32
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.51
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.019654%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.016
σᵣ STD / h1.215282%σ²ᵣ = 1.477×10⁻⁴ · CV = 61.83×
σ ANNUALISED113.74%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.215%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.51good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.23strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)39.09exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.22right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂8.19leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.47
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 39.09
EXPECTED EDGE+172.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.37%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.373%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.622%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.540%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.40%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.373%VaR₉₉−1.622%ES₉₅−1.540%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK1.77$
−4.40% drawdown over 21h
1.69$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.61% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.252 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0176
Bollinger MA
$0.0172
Bollinger lower
$0.0168

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.225within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.025lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.710strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.156significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.710
H = 0.710STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.225k=2-0.025k=3-0.115k=4+0.151k=5-0.0920+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.64very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$304.71k
Open interest (USD)
$236.52k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.29x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
1.331× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.665× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.333×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.56% · worst -1.69% · typical |Δ| 0.74%MILD BULLISH +0.47%BEST+4.56%13hWORST-1.69%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.74%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.47%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.40% · Σ +3.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.47%+4.56%0.00%4.56% · 13h4.56% · 13h4.56%13h★ BEST-0.34% · 14h-0.34% · 14h-0.34%14h-1.14% · 15h-1.14% · 15h-1.14%15h-0.06% · 16h-0.06% · 16h-0.06%16h0.29% · 17h0.29% · 17h0.29%17h0.40% · 18h0.40% · 18h0.40%18h-0.29% · 19h-0.29% · 19h-0.29%19h-0.46% · 20h-0.46% · 20h-0.46%20h-0.11% · 21h-0.11% · 21h-0.11%21h-1.39% · 22h-1.39% · 22h-1.39%22h0.12% · 23h0.12% · 23h0.12%23h-0.17% · 00h-0.17% · 00h-0.17%00h0.52% · 01h0.52% · 01h0.52%01h-0.41% · 02h-0.41% · 02h-0.41%02h0.64% · 03h0.64% · 03h0.64%03h-1.69% · 04h-1.69% · 04h-1.69%04h▼ WORST1.40% · 05h1.40% · 05h1.40%05h-1.28% · 06h-1.28% · 06h-1.28%06h-0.24% · 07h-0.24% · 07h-0.24%07h0.06% · 08h0.06% · 08h0.06%08h0.70% · 09h0.70% · 09h0.70%09h-1.06% · 10h-1.06% · 10h-1.06%10h0.47% · 11h0.47% · 11h0.47%11h-0.06% · 12h-0.06% · 12h-0.06%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.20%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 4.56% · worst -1.69% · typical |Δ| 0.744%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.31%FINAL+0.31%MAX DD-4.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.56%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0031 · peak 1.0456 · range [0.9989, 1.0456]1.04560.9989break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0456UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.47% · moderate0%-4.47%▼ TROUGH -4.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.47%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 1.0031 (0.31%) · max DD -4.47% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-20.77 · σ=20.81UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.98 (+0.85σ vs μ)68.1734.080.00-34.08-68.17μ = -20.7728.8228.82-32.08-32.08-34.89-34.89-10.89-10.89-37.86-37.86-43.72-43.72-68.17-68.17-36.06-36.06-34.98-34.98-14.58-14.58-18.33-18.334.254.25-10.64-10.64-21.28-21.28-14.95-14.95-13.95-13.95-6.28-6.28-26.01-26.01-2.98-2.98v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.978 · range [-68.17, 28.82] · μ -20.766 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.3871 · σ=35.8033 · range [30.7641, 188.0539] · R²=0.021▼ FALLING -69.35%σ EXTREME 44.54%LAST 57.6361188.0539148.7315109.409070.086630.7641μ = 80.3871max 188.0539min 30.7641dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 57.64% · range [30.76%, 188.05%] · μ 80.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.343 · σ=0.348MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.654 (-0.89σ vs μ)0.8260.4130.000-0.413-0.826μ = -0.343-0.030-0.0300.1990.1990.1320.1320.3030.3030.0760.076-0.348-0.348-0.500-0.500-0.245-0.245-0.292-0.292-0.275-0.275-0.445-0.445-0.698-0.698-0.797-0.797-0.826-0.826-0.792-0.792-0.567-0.567-0.432-0.432-0.334-0.334-0.654-0.654v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.654 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
86.8450
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7738
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7373
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1357
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7199
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0117
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.3073
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.298 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.73e-4 · top T=2.00h (36.0%) · top-3 cover 60.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.5e-45.6e-43.7e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.82e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.82e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.52e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.89e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.89e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.45e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.45e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.65e-4 · 12.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.65e-4 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.47e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.47e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.32e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.32e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.53e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.53e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.83e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.83e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.47e-4 · 36.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.47e-4 · 36.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 36.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.072e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.51× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.51×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -13.99400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -13.99
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -13.44σ ann 141% · Sortino -6.18 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1613%-1256%-900%-543%-187%170%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)141.3%Ann. vol σ-1344.0%Sharpe (ann)-617.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0160.0170.0170.0180.0180.018t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9cbfa8a385c49d93afa1a27c65e0f7d91710ce5035990be083373c23c83eef0b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.41K
bid $460 · ask $948
Depth within 10bp
$1.75K
bid $460 · ask $1.29K
Depth within 50bp
$12.57K
bid $5.39K · ask $7.18K
Mid price
0.017015
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.111
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.124
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dym/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0170213.24bp0.0170302FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01707937.66bp0.01720010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.017231127.09bp0.01771020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01699114.03bp0.0169703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01692155.31bp0.01683013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01687283.80bp0.01663020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-dym/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$17.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dym/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.014 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.78M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.54M
real volume
Net delta
$242.46K
buyers net
Imbalance
1.40%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dym/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.28% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 20:00:00Z4.0h0.017560→0.0171602.278%5
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.017290→0.0169801.793%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.017290→0.0170001.677%1

/api/asset/hl-dym/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
141.33%
σ per bar = 0.000616
Mean return (annualised)
-1899.57%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.31%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3837 bars

/api/asset/hl-dym/risk · same metrics, JSON