HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DYDX

DYDX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dydx · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.37%
realized vol (ann.)
65.55%
max drawdown
1.94%
sharpe
-42.22
ulcer index
1.06%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.89%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2604.79
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1524.57
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.37%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.37%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dydx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.119
24h Δ · live
-3.37%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
DYDX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1206 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1185, 0.1232] · R²=0.690▼ FALLING -2.84%σ NORMAL 1.11%LAST 0.11910.12320.12200.12090.11970.1185μ = 0.1206max 0.1232min 0.1185dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.12
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,056,151 · μ=82246.0 · σ=126702.0 · CV=1.54BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 82246640,029.750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 640030 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.1191
$mid $
$0.119
◉prev-day close
$0.1232
Δ24h Δ %
-3.369%
$24h vol $
$248.71k
◐open interest $
$3.22M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1206 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1185, 0.1232] · R²=0.690▼ FALLING -2.84%σ NORMAL 1.11%LAST 0.11910.12320.12200.12090.11970.1185μ = 0.1206max 0.1232min 0.1185dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1191 · 24h -3.37% · range $[0.1185, 0.1232]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.1177, 0.1243] · σ=0.0013 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -3.16%CLOSE 0.1191 vs OPEN 0.1229 (-3.16%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.11910.12430.12270.12100.11940.1177μ close = 0.1206O0.123 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (-0.33%)O0.123 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (-0.33%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.122 (-0.35%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.122 (-0.35%)O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)1.8%O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (-0.14%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (-0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,056,151 · μ=82246.0 · σ=126702.0 · CV=1.54BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 8224627,369.3 · 4.3% peak27,369.3 · 4.3% peak38,289.4 · 6.0% peak38,289.4 · 6.0% peak24,494.2 · 3.8% peak24,494.2 · 3.8% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak640,029.7640,029.7 · 100.0% peak640,029.7 · 100.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak17,266.3 · 2.7% peak17,266.3 · 2.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2056151 · peak 640030 · CV 1.54

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0072 · skew=0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.13 (mesokurtic)54310 2-141.10bpbin -141.10bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -141.10bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-113.72bpbin -113.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -113.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-86.33bpbin -86.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -86.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-58.95bpbin -58.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -58.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-31.57bpbin -31.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -31.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3-4.19bpbin -4.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -4.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 423.19bpbin 23.19bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 23.19bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 150.57bpbin 50.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 50.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 377.95bpbin 77.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 77.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak105.34bp132.72bp 1160.10bpbin 160.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 160.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.28 · kurt=-0.05 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1191
Mid price
$0.119
24h change
-3.37%
Mark–mid spread
3.36 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1232

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1206$95% CI: [0.1201$, 0.1211$]
σ STD DEV0.0013$σ² = 0.018×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.11%
med MEDIAN0.1205$Q₁ 0.1194$ · Q₃ 0.1214$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0047$ · IQR 0.0020$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.1185$Q₁ 0.1194$med 0.1205$Q₃ 0.1214$max 0.1232$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.395approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.964mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.51
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.55
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.120041%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.155
σᵣ STD / h0.772390%σ²ᵣ = 0.597×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.43×
σ ANNUALISED72.29%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.772%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.55negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.09downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.30approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.24mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1051.56%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.28%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.275%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.487%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.415%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.82%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.275%VaR₉₉−1.487%ES₉₅−1.415%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK12.32$
−3.82% drawdown over 12h
11.85$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.247 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1223
Bollinger MA
$0.1202
Bollinger lower
$0.1180

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.232within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.176lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.755strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.152significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.755
H = 0.755STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.232k=2-0.176k=3-0.242k=4+0.013k=5+0.1550+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.15)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.74very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.15)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$248.71k
Open interest (USD)
$3.22M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.08x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.74% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.61%MILD BEARISH -2.88%BEST+1.74%21hWORST-1.55%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.61%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.88%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.27%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.54%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.88%+0.55%-3.35%-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h-0.41% · 14h-0.41% · 14h-0.41%14h0.91% · 15h0.91% · 15h0.91%15h0.55% · 16h0.55% · 16h0.55%16h-1.23% · 17h-1.23% · 17h-1.23%17h-0.87% · 18h-0.87% · 18h-0.87%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h1.74% · 21h1.74% · 21h1.74%21h★ BEST-1.55% · 22h-1.55% · 22h-1.55%22h▼ WORST-0.41% · 23h-0.41% · 23h-0.41%23h-0.30% · 00h-0.30% · 00h-0.30%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h-0.58% · 02h-0.58% · 02h-0.58%02h0.33% · 03h0.33% · 03h0.33%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.77% · 05h0.77% · 05h0.77%05h-0.34% · 06h-0.34% · 06h-0.34%06h0.30% · 07h0.30% · 07h0.30%07h0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-0.81% · 10h-0.81% · 10h-0.81%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-0.09% · 12h-0.09% · 12h-0.09%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.27%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.74% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.611%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.91%)FINAL-2.91%MAX DD-3.87%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.54%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9709 · peak 1.0054 · range [0.9665, 1.0054]1.00540.9665break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0054UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.87% · moderate0%-3.87%▼ TROUGH -3.87%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.87%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.91%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.87%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9709 (-2.91%) · max DD -3.87% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-14.53 · σ=20.20UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.89 (+0.76σ vs μ)62.6031.300.00-31.30-62.60μ = -14.53-29.35-29.35-18.52-18.52-7.81-7.816.136.13-21.74-21.74-11.87-11.87-4.13-4.13-4.98-4.98-15.63-15.63-60.21-60.21-62.60-62.60-22.51-22.51-23.25-23.25-16.54-16.5413.1613.16-1.10-1.109.309.30-5.39-5.390.890.89v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.888 · range [-62.60, 13.16] · μ -14.534 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=78.7178 · σ=18.6248 · range [51.7746, 112.6934] · R²=0.348▼ FALLING -28.51%σ EXTREME 23.66%LAST 55.2756112.693497.463782.234067.004351.7746μ = 78.7178max 112.6934min 51.7746dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.28% · range [51.77%, 112.69%] · μ 78.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.242 · σ=0.321MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.058 (+0.94σ vs μ)0.7850.3930.000-0.393-0.785μ = -0.2420.1780.1780.0940.0940.2160.2160.1330.133-0.162-0.162-0.289-0.289-0.292-0.292-0.301-0.301-0.411-0.411-0.077-0.077-0.556-0.556-0.738-0.738-0.785-0.785-0.737-0.737-0.446-0.446-0.420-0.420-0.067-0.0670.0060.0060.0580.058v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.058 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4188
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8625
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4337
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9173
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3346
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8064
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0069
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2832
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1994
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.610 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.43e-5 · top T=2.00h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 53.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.7e-41.3e-48.5e-54.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.90e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.31e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.31e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.75e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.75e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.56e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.56e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.26e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.26e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.21e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.21e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 22.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.711e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-16.42×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -10.77400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -10.77
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -827% · APY -100% · Sharpe -11.65σ ann 71% · Sortino -8.74 · n 4999
-1398%-1102%-805%-508%-212%85%-827.2%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)71.0%Ann. vol σ-1165.4%Sharpe (ann)-874.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1130.1160.1180.1210.1230.126t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2c0e7a3b7f44f7cddbb914d23c0416d6928b26d0ae3e7810778119d4f39f027c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.32K
bid $990 · ask $331
Depth within 10bp
$1.71K
bid $1.00K · ask $704
Depth within 50bp
$75.73K
bid $23.09K · ask $52.65K
Mid price
0.119010
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.356
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.758
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dydx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1190926.92bp0.1191405FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11913510.52bp0.1191405FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.11923819.12bp0.11968020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1189624.05bp0.1189303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.11873523.11bp0.11846015FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.11856137.75bp0.11837020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-dydx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.06M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dydx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.225 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$786.38K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.24M
real volume
Net delta
$456.03K
sellers net
Imbalance
-22.48%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
22.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dydx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.123050→0.1196302.779%5
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z3.0h0.123210→0.1206502.078%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.120330→0.1185001.521%3

/api/asset/hl-dydx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.98%
σ per bar = 0.000310
Mean return (annualised)
-827.21%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.01%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.12 over 2291 bars

/api/asset/hl-dydx/risk · same metrics, JSON