HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DOT

DOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dot · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.71%
realized vol (ann.)
38.80%
max drawdown
1.14%
sharpe
-58.39
ulcer index
0.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.51%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3854.11
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2095.79
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.71%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-8.11%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -2.71%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-dot/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.961
24h Δ · live
-2.71%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
DOT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.9754 · σ=0.0079 · range [0.9610, 0.9909] · R²=0.856▼ FALLING -2.48%σ LOW 0.81%LAST 0.96100.99090.98340.97600.96850.9610μ = 0.9754max 0.9909min 0.9610dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.96
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.4%Short fee 52.6%SHORT FEE52.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000926% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=798,798 · μ=31951.9 · σ=35295.0 · CV=1.10BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10035,45370,905106,358141,810μ = 31952141,81050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 141810 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$0.9613
$mid $
$0.9615
◉prev-day close
$0.9881
Δ24h Δ %
-2.713%
$24h vol $
$772.84k
◐open interest $
$4.00M
%funding (1h)
-0.000926%
%funding (yr)
-8.11%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.9754 · σ=0.0079 · range [0.9610, 0.9909] · R²=0.856▼ FALLING -2.48%σ LOW 0.81%LAST 0.96100.99090.98340.97600.96850.9610μ = 0.9754max 0.9909min 0.9610dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.9613 · 24h -2.71% · range $[0.9610, 0.9909]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.9610, 0.9948] · σ=0.0079 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BEARISH -2.89%CLOSE 0.9610 vs OPEN 0.9897 (-2.89%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.96100.99480.98630.97790.96940.9610μ close = 0.9754O0.990 H0.991 L0.983 C0.985 (-0.43%)O0.990 H0.991 L0.983 C0.985 (-0.43%)O0.986 H0.988 L0.982 C0.987 (+0.14%)O0.986 H0.988 L0.982 C0.987 (+0.14%)O0.988 H0.995 L0.987 C0.991 (+0.27%)O0.988 H0.995 L0.987 C0.991 (+0.27%)O0.991 H0.991 L0.979 C0.985 (-0.66%)O0.991 H0.991 L0.979 C0.985 (-0.66%)O0.985 H0.988 L0.978 C0.980 (-0.50%)O0.985 H0.988 L0.978 C0.980 (-0.50%)O0.981 H0.983 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.41%)O0.981 H0.983 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.41%)O0.978 H0.982 L0.975 C0.979 (+0.11%)O0.978 H0.982 L0.975 C0.979 (+0.11%)O0.977 H0.980 L0.976 C0.979 (+0.12%)O0.977 H0.980 L0.976 C0.979 (+0.12%)O0.979 H0.986 L0.975 C0.981 (+0.24%)O0.979 H0.986 L0.975 C0.981 (+0.24%)O0.981 H0.984 L0.979 C0.980 (-0.11%)O0.981 H0.984 L0.979 C0.980 (-0.11%)O0.980 H0.982 L0.978 C0.979 (-0.09%)O0.980 H0.982 L0.978 C0.979 (-0.09%)O0.980 H0.980 L0.976 C0.978 (-0.21%)O0.980 H0.980 L0.976 C0.978 (-0.21%)O0.978 H0.983 L0.977 C0.979 (+0.16%)O0.978 H0.983 L0.977 C0.979 (+0.16%)O0.979 H0.984 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.23%)O0.979 H0.984 L0.976 C0.977 (-0.23%)O0.977 H0.978 L0.974 C0.978 (+0.07%)O0.977 H0.978 L0.974 C0.978 (+0.07%)-0.9%O0.978 H0.978 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.92%)O0.978 H0.978 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.92%)O0.969 H0.971 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.01%)O0.969 H0.971 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.01%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.965 C0.966 (-0.32%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.965 C0.966 (-0.32%)O0.965 H0.968 L0.963 C0.966 (+0.07%)O0.965 H0.968 L0.963 C0.966 (+0.07%)O0.966 H0.970 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.29%)O0.966 H0.970 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.29%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.972 (+0.30%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.972 (+0.30%)O0.971 H0.972 L0.968 C0.968 (-0.34%)O0.971 H0.972 L0.968 C0.968 (-0.34%)O0.968 H0.969 L0.966 C0.968 (-0.03%)O0.968 H0.969 L0.966 C0.968 (-0.03%)O0.968 H0.970 L0.962 C0.963 (-0.46%)O0.968 H0.970 L0.962 C0.963 (-0.46%)O0.962 H0.965 L0.961 C0.961 (-0.15%)O0.962 H0.965 L0.961 C0.961 (-0.15%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=798,798 · μ=31951.9 · σ=35295.0 · CV=1.10BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10035,45370,905106,358141,810μ = 3195212,676.7 · 8.9% peak12,676.7 · 8.9% peak14,781.1 · 10.4% peak14,781.1 · 10.4% peak16,918.7 · 11.9% peak16,918.7 · 11.9% peak136,800.7 · 96.5% peak136,800.7 · 96.5% peak23,414.9 · 16.5% peak23,414.9 · 16.5% peak20,602.4 · 14.5% peak20,602.4 · 14.5% peak17,107 · 12.1% peak17,107 · 12.1% peak14,399.7 · 10.2% peak14,399.7 · 10.2% peak141,810141,810 · 100.0% peak141,810 · 100.0% peak8,219.9 · 5.8% peak8,219.9 · 5.8% peak8,860.8 · 6.2% peak8,860.8 · 6.2% peak15,423.4 · 10.9% peak15,423.4 · 10.9% peak21,721 · 15.3% peak21,721 · 15.3% peak16,650.8 · 11.7% peak16,650.8 · 11.7% peak22,929.4 · 16.2% peak22,929.4 · 16.2% peak49,433.3 · 34.9% peak49,433.3 · 34.9% peak27,236.9 · 19.2% peak27,236.9 · 19.2% peak30,379.9 · 21.4% peak30,379.9 · 21.4% peak74,586.5 · 52.6% peak74,586.5 · 52.6% peak30,755.4 · 21.7% peak30,755.4 · 21.7% peak22,789.8 · 16.1% peak22,789.8 · 16.1% peak17,559.6 · 12.4% peak17,559.6 · 12.4% peak31,983 · 22.6% peak31,983 · 22.6% peak17,754.5 · 12.5% peak17,754.5 · 12.5% peak4,002.1 · 2.8% peak4,002.1 · 2.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 798798 · peak 141810 · CV 1.10

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0030 · skew=-0.56 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.33 (mesokurtic)43210 1-84.30bpbin -84.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -84.30bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-73.92bp 1-63.54bpbin -63.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -63.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-53.16bp 3-42.77bpbin -42.77bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -42.77bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-32.39bpbin -32.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -32.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-22.01bpbin -22.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -22.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-11.63bpbin -11.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -11.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-1.25bpbin -1.25bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -1.25bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 19.13bpbin 9.13bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 9.13bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 419.51bpbin 19.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 19.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 329.89bpbin 29.89bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 29.89bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.58 · kurt=-0.11 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.9613
Mid price
$0.9615
24h change
-2.71%
Mark–mid spread
2.29 bps
Prev-day close
$0.9881

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.05)
μ MEAN0.9754$95% CI: [0.9723$, 0.9785$]
σ STD DEV0.0079$σ² = 0.631×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.81%
med MEDIAN0.9776$Q₁ 0.9687$ · Q₃ 0.9801$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0299$ · IQR 0.0114$ (1.349σ→0.0107$)
min 0.9610$Q₁ 0.9687$med 0.9776$Q₃ 0.9801$max 0.9909$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.037approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.050platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.76
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-30.81
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.104470%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.329
σᵣ STD / h0.317387%σ²ᵣ = 0.101×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.04×
σ ANNUALISED29.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.317%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-30.81negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-26.97downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.62left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.17mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.88
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-915.15%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.61%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.607%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.835%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.764%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.02%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.607%VaR₉₉−0.835%ES₉₅−0.764%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK99.09$
−3.02% drawdown over 22h
96.10$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
28.1 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.041 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.9857
Bollinger MA
$0.9728
Bollinger lower
$0.9600

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.023within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.025lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.802strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.675significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.802
H = 0.802STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1-0.023k=2+0.025k=3 ★-0.419k=4-0.138k=5-0.2440+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.63very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$772.84k
Open interest (USD)
$4.00M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.19x
1h funding
-0.000926%
Funding (annualised)
-8.11%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.35% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.25%BEARISH SESSION -2.51%BEST+0.35%15hWORST-0.89%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.51%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.38%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.07%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.51%+0.56%-2.51%0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h★ BEST-0.63% · 16h-0.63% · 16h-0.63%16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h-0.31% · 18h-0.31% · 18h-0.31%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.03% · 20h-0.03% · 20h-0.03%20h0.24% · 21h0.24% · 21h0.24%21h-0.09% · 22h-0.09% · 22h-0.09%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h-0.16% · 00h-0.16% · 00h-0.16%00h0.16% · 01h0.16% · 01h0.16%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.05% · 03h0.05% · 03h0.05%03h-0.89% · 04h-0.89% · 04h-0.89%04h▼ WORST-0.00% · 05h-0.00% · 05h-0.00%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.00% · 07h-0.00% · 07h-0.00%07h0.31% · 08h0.31% · 08h0.31%08h0.31% · 09h0.31% · 09h0.31%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h-0.46% · 12h-0.46% · 12h-0.46%12h-0.22% · 13h-0.22% · 13h-0.22%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.07%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.35% · worst -0.89% · typical |Δ| 0.255%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.49%)FINAL-2.49%MAX DD-3.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.56%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9751 · peak 1.0056 · range [0.9751, 1.0056]1.00560.9751break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0056UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.03% · moderate0%-3.03%▼ TROUGH -3.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.03%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9751 (-2.49%) · max DD -3.03% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-25.79 · σ=18.83UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -22.74 (+0.16σ vs μ)60.2330.110.00-30.11-60.23μ = -25.79-25.63-25.63-37.10-37.10-44.58-44.58-26.79-26.79-8.92-8.923.823.822.492.49-12.57-12.57-38.84-38.84-48.24-48.24-43.21-43.21-49.72-49.72-60.23-60.23-32.22-32.22-20.72-20.72-4.80-4.80-7.17-7.17-12.85-12.85-22.74-22.74v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.743 · range [-60.23, 3.82] · μ -25.791 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=28.9272 · σ=9.1042 · range [12.7035, 42.7274] · R²=0.056▼ FALLING -16.96%σ EXTREME 31.47%LAST 31.452542.727435.221427.715420.209512.7035μ = 28.9272max 42.7274min 12.7035dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 31.45% · range [12.70%, 42.73%] · μ 28.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.155 · σ=0.278CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.117 (+0.98σ vs μ)0.6800.3400.000-0.340-0.680μ = -0.1550.1120.112-0.089-0.0890.3630.3630.1430.143-0.361-0.361-0.072-0.072-0.221-0.221-0.353-0.353-0.680-0.680-0.239-0.239-0.418-0.418-0.467-0.467-0.593-0.593-0.276-0.2760.0830.083-0.040-0.0400.0010.0010.0430.0430.1170.117v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.117 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5530
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4600
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8033
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4850
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8895
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1574
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8749
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8538
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2192
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8265
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.933 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.17e-5 · top T=2.00h (35.2%) · top-3 cover 70.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.0e-53.7e-52.5e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.38e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.38e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.05e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.05e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-5 · 27.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-5 · 27.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.77e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.77e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.80e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.80e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.75e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.75e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.77e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.77e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 35.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 35.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 35.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.406e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-55.24×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.63400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -19.63
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -812% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.18σ ann 38% · Sortino -17.29 · n 4999
-2541%-2024%-1506%-989%-471%46%-812.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)38.3%Ann. vol σ-2117.9%Sharpe (ann)-1728.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.9230.9410.9590.9770.9941.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
73c1af22f9fcb356c11722fc23098f4e41a300e9fd926e00c9fcf6499a22a362 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,287HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.85

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$528
bid $125 · ask $403
Depth within 10bp
$68.95K
bid $34.96K · ask $33.99K
Depth within 50bp
$167.69K
bid $62.23K · ask $105.46K
Mid price
0.961470
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.257
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.453
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dot/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.9619565.05bp0.9619802FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9620826.36bp0.9623108FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.96270612.86bp0.96325020FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.9609755.15bp0.9609703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.9608316.64bp0.9607809FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.9605319.76bp0.95957020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.256e-6
-0.00093% / hr
Annualised APR
-8.114%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
45.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
45.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE8.114%45.0d1.23y
SHORTPAY-8.114%45.0d1.23y

/api/asset/hl-dot/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$798.80K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-dot/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.265 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$288.81K
real volume
Sell weight
$497.31K
real volume
Net delta
$208.50K
sellers net
Imbalance
-26.52%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
26.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-dot/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.38% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.990910→0.9772101.383%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.979140→0.9657601.367%3
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z1.0h0.971770→0.9610201.106%2

/api/asset/hl-dot/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
38.34%
σ per bar = 0.000167
Mean return (annualised)
-812.02%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.16%
peak 0.97 → trough 0.96 over 4311 bars

/api/asset/hl-dot/risk · same metrics, JSON