HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CHIP

CHIP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-chip · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.28%
realized vol (ann.)
165.96%
max drawdown
5.66%
sharpe
-57.54
ulcer index
3.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2436.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1779.16
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.28%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-1.18%
signalLONGconfidence 41%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +3.28%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-chip/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH804ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.034
24h Δ · live
3.28%
24h vol · live
$2.1M
CHIP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0341 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0328, 0.0365] · R²=0.264▲ RISING +4.53%σ NORMAL 2.84%LAST 0.03430.03650.03560.03470.03380.0328μ = 0.0341max 0.0365min 0.0328dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 36.5%Short fee 63.5%SHORT FEE63.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.946 / 1.00 bits (95%) · high uncertainty
Long fee
36.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
63.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000135% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=61,997,975 · μ=2479919.0 · σ=1765865.9 · CV=0.71RISING +42% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1601,496,3952,992,7904,489,1845,985,579μ = 24799195,985,57950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5985579 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
804ms
$mark $
$0.0344
$mid $
$0.0343
◉prev-day close
$0.0333
Δ24h Δ %
+3.283%
$24h vol $
$2.12M
◐open interest $
$3.03M
%funding (1h)
-0.000135%
%funding (yr)
-1.18%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0341 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0328, 0.0365] · R²=0.264▲ RISING +4.53%σ NORMAL 2.84%LAST 0.03430.03650.03560.03470.03380.0328μ = 0.0341max 0.0365min 0.0328dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0344 · 24h 3.28% · range $[0.0328, 0.0365]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0327, 0.0368] · σ=0.0010 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +3.62%CLOSE 0.0343 vs OPEN 0.0331 (+3.62%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03430.03680.03580.03470.03370.0327μ close = 0.0341O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.74%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.74%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.19%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.19%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)6.4%O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.71%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.71%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-1.39%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-1.39%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.43%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.43%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=61,997,975 · μ=2479919.0 · σ=1765865.9 · CV=0.71RISING +42% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1601,496,3952,992,7904,489,1845,985,579μ = 24799195,087,817 · 85.0% peak5,087,817 · 85.0% peak856,081 · 14.3% peak856,081 · 14.3% peak5,713,061 · 95.4% peak5,713,061 · 95.4% peak3,164,972 · 52.9% peak3,164,972 · 52.9% peak969,786 · 16.2% peak969,786 · 16.2% peak1,043,012 · 17.4% peak1,043,012 · 17.4% peak657,957 · 11.0% peak657,957 · 11.0% peak1,131,189 · 18.9% peak1,131,189 · 18.9% peak1,508,252 · 25.2% peak1,508,252 · 25.2% peak1,021,385 · 17.1% peak1,021,385 · 17.1% peak1,784,544 · 29.8% peak1,784,544 · 29.8% peak2,696,091 · 45.0% peak2,696,091 · 45.0% peak1,834,886 · 30.7% peak1,834,886 · 30.7% peak1,830,667 · 30.6% peak1,830,667 · 30.6% peak1,011,087 · 16.9% peak1,011,087 · 16.9% peak1,457,936 · 24.4% peak1,457,936 · 24.4% peak1,692,817 · 28.3% peak1,692,817 · 28.3% peak3,027,628 · 50.6% peak3,027,628 · 50.6% peak5,985,5795,985,579 · 100.0% peak5,985,579 · 100.0% peak3,870,068 · 64.7% peak3,870,068 · 64.7% peak5,827,045 · 97.4% peak5,827,045 · 97.4% peak5,017,059 · 83.8% peak5,017,059 · 83.8% peak1,508,751 · 25.2% peak1,508,751 · 25.2% peak2,711,052 · 45.3% peak2,711,052 · 45.3% peak589,253 · 9.8% peak589,253 · 9.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 61997975 · peak 5985579 · CV 0.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0025 · σ=0.0182 · skew=1.13 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.82 (leptokurtic (fat tails))43210 2-224.41bpbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-149.58bpbin -149.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -149.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-74.75bpbin -74.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -74.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 40.09bpbin 0.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 0.09bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 374.92bpbin 74.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 74.92bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3149.75bpbin 149.75bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 149.75bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3224.58bpbin 224.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 224.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak299.41bp374.24bp449.08bp523.91bp 1598.74bpbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.29 · kurt=2.50 · near 21 / mid 2 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0344
Mid price
$0.0343
24h change
+3.28%
Mark–mid spread
8.44 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0333

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.84)
μ MEAN0.0341$95% CI: [0.0337$, 0.0345$]
σ STD DEV0.0010$σ² = 0.009×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.84%
med MEDIAN0.0339$Q₁ 0.0335$ · Q₃ 0.0344$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0037$ · IQR 0.0009$ (1.349σ→0.0013$)
min 0.0328$Q₁ 0.0335$med 0.0339$Q₃ 0.0344$max 0.0365$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.841right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.002mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.39
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.77
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.00
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.184488%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.096
σᵣ STD / h1.919393%σ²ᵣ = 3.684×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.40×
σ ANNUALISED179.65%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.919%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.00excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)12.77strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.37right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.41leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.42
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1616.11%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.12%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.124%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.518%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.400%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.91%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.124%VaR₉₉−2.518%ES₉₅−2.400%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK3.65$
−5.91% drawdown over 5h
3.43$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.28% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.523 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0363
Bollinger MA
$0.0342
Bollinger lower
$0.0322

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.321within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.315lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.749strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.875significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.749
H = 0.749STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.321k=2-0.315k=3-0.072k=4-0.056k=5-0.3450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.88)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.88)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$2.12M
Open interest (USD)
$3.03M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.70x
1h funding
-0.000135%
Funding (annualised)
-1.18%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.008× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.504× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.252×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.42%MILD BULLISH +4.43%BEST+6.36%07hWORST-2.62%09hTYPICAL |Δ|1.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.43%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.43%+10.52%-0.02%1.92% · 14h1.92% · 14h1.92%14h2.13% · 15h2.13% · 15h2.13%15h-0.82% · 16h-0.82% · 16h-0.82%16h-1.40% · 17h-1.40% · 17h-1.40%17h0.43% · 18h0.43% · 18h0.43%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h1.49% · 20h1.49% · 20h1.49%20h0.27% · 21h0.27% · 21h0.27%21h-1.79% · 22h-1.79% · 22h-1.79%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h1.45% · 00h1.45% · 00h1.45%00h-1.66% · 01h-1.66% · 01h-1.66%01h-2.18% · 02h-2.18% · 02h-2.18%02h-0.18% · 03h-0.18% · 03h-0.18%03h1.19% · 04h1.19% · 04h1.19%04h-0.32% · 05h-0.32% · 05h-0.32%05h2.42% · 06h2.42% · 06h2.42%06h6.36% · 07h6.36% · 07h6.36%07h★ BEST0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-2.62% · 09h-2.62% · 09h-2.62%09h▼ WORST-0.89% · 10h-0.89% · 10h-0.89%10h-0.73% · 11h-0.73% · 11h-0.73%11h-1.31% · 12h-1.31% · 12h-1.31%12h-0.55% · 13h-0.55% · 13h-0.55%13hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+7.07%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.416%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.09%FINAL+4.09%MAX DD-5.96%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.69%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0409 · peak 1.1069 · range [0.9985, 1.1069]1.10690.9985break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1069UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.96% · significant0%-5.96%▼ TROUGH -5.96%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -5.96%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.66%bar 10-18 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -2.20%bar 4-7 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.96%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0409 (4.09%) · max DD -5.96% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=4.52 · σ=35.07MIXED EDGELAST -71.20 (-2.16σ vs μ)71.2035.600.00-35.60-71.20μ = 4.5232.1732.1729.0929.099.529.52-4.13-4.1310.0810.0821.8621.86-6.21-6.21-46.88-46.88-53.89-53.89-18.44-18.44-18.22-18.22-6.71-6.7138.3738.3765.1265.1241.1841.1829.0629.0626.7126.718.398.39-71.20-71.20v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -71.204 · range [-71.20, 65.12] · μ 4.519 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=174.1752 · σ=76.1072 · range [97.8811, 297.9446] · R²=0.496▼ FALLING -19.62%σ EXTREME 43.70%LAST 106.5915297.9446247.9287197.9128147.897097.8811μ = 174.1752max 297.9446min 97.8811dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 106.59% · range [97.88%, 297.94%] · μ 174.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=0.076 · σ=0.215MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST -0.500 (-2.68σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = 0.0760.2750.2750.0390.0390.3780.3780.0900.0900.2750.2750.1350.135-0.232-0.232-0.132-0.132-0.111-0.1110.0070.0070.0120.0120.1650.1650.2090.2090.0020.0020.0770.0770.2540.2540.3470.3470.1610.161-0.500-0.500v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.1900
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.7587
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9831
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3033
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2264
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0963
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.7821
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4342
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.238 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.53e-4 · top T=8.00h (21.9%) · top-3 cover 62.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)9.3e-47.0e-44.6e-42.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.25e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.25e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.03e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.03e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.29e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.29e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.37e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.37e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.76e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.76e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.73e-4 · 20.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.73e-4 · 20.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.52e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.52e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.27e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.27e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.93e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.93e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.85e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.85e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.42e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.42e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.64e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.64e-6 · 0.1% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 21.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.239e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 8.05× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
8.05×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.01× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.04400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.01× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.04
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.17%
VaR 95%5%
0.26%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.40%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.7%
0.89×0.94×0.99×1.04×1.09×1.14×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.34σ ann 191% · Sortino 14.70 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%368%736%1104%1473%1841%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)190.6%Ann. vol σ1534.0%Sharpe (ann)1469.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0320.0330.0340.0360.0370.038t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:44 UTC
Snapshot age
804ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e95da9c76510adb56c3f774ffbce55bfd1e07cb745b593898f0095cc10308703 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.52K
bid $588 · ask $2.93K
Depth within 10bp
$16.85K
bid $2.19K · ask $14.66K
Depth within 50bp
$91.74K
bid $41.43K · ask $50.31K
Mid price
0.034329
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.095
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.223
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-chip/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0343464.95bp0.0343461FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0343536.99bp0.0343584FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03438716.98bp0.03443120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0343095.91bp0.0343042FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03427814.99bp0.0342696FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03424624.21bp0.03421520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.347e-6
-0.00013% / hr
Annualised APR
-1.181%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
309.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
309.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE1.181%309.2d8.47y
SHORTPAY-1.181%309.2d8.47y

/api/asset/hl-chip/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$62.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-chip/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.018 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$27.95M
real volume
Sell weight
$28.96M
real volume
Net delta
$1.02M
sellers net
Imbalance
-1.79%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-chip/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 5.91% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 09:00:00Z4.0h0.036490→0.0343335.911%5
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z6.0h0.034423→0.0328404.599%7
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.034204→0.0334552.190%3

/api/asset/hl-chip/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
190.63%
σ per bar = 0.000831
Mean return (annualised)
2924.21%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.68%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2293 bars

/api/asset/hl-chip/risk · same metrics, JSON