HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CFX

CFX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cfx · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.44%
realized vol (ann.)
34.17%
max drawdown
0.74%
sharpe
-5.84
ulcer index
0.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.31%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-509.37
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-285.49
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.44%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 41%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.44%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 8.0bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cfx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH668ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.045
24h Δ · live
-1.44%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
CFX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0451 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0447, 0.0457] · R²=0.755▼ FALLING -1.18%σ LOW 0.57%LAST 0.04480.04570.04550.04520.04500.0447μ = 0.0451max 0.0457min 0.0447dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=963,613 · μ=38544.5 · σ=46892.9 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9059,077118,154177,231236,308μ = 38545236,30850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 236308 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
668ms
$mark $
$0.0448
$mid $
$0.0448
◉prev-day close
$0.0455
Δ24h Δ %
-1.437%
$24h vol $
$43.45k
◐open interest $
$3.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0451 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0447, 0.0457] · R²=0.755▼ FALLING -1.18%σ LOW 0.57%LAST 0.04480.04570.04550.04520.04500.0447μ = 0.0451max 0.0457min 0.0447dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0448 · 24h -1.44% · range $[0.0447, 0.0457]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0445, 0.0458] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.31%CLOSE 0.0448 vs OPEN 0.0454 (-1.31%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.04480.04580.04550.04520.04490.0445μ close = 0.0451O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.14%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.14%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.18%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.18%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.29%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.29%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.046 (+0.60%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.046 (+0.60%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.51%)O0.046 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.51%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.29%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.29%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.01%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.01%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.56%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.56%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.20%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.20%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.34%)O0.045 H0.046 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.34%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.21%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.21%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.04%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.04%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.10%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.10%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.39%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.39%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.43%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.43%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.14%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.14%)-0.7%O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.65%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.65%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.28%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.28%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.06%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.06%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.25%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.25%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.49%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.49%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.23%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.23%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.10%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (-0.10%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.11%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.11%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.06%)O0.045 H0.045 L0.045 C0.045 (+0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=963,613 · μ=38544.5 · σ=46892.9 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=9059,077118,154177,231236,308μ = 3854586,560 · 36.6% peak86,560 · 36.6% peak18,387 · 7.8% peak18,387 · 7.8% peak22,902 · 9.7% peak22,902 · 9.7% peak21,343 · 9.0% peak21,343 · 9.0% peak30,584 · 12.9% peak30,584 · 12.9% peak10,458 · 4.4% peak10,458 · 4.4% peak236,308236,308 · 100.0% peak236,308 · 100.0% peak48,141 · 20.4% peak48,141 · 20.4% peak14,874 · 6.3% peak14,874 · 6.3% peak33,587 · 14.2% peak33,587 · 14.2% peak12,953 · 5.5% peak12,953 · 5.5% peak15,616 · 6.6% peak15,616 · 6.6% peak72,956 · 30.9% peak72,956 · 30.9% peak15,054 · 6.4% peak15,054 · 6.4% peak62,959 · 26.6% peak62,959 · 26.6% peak43,054 · 18.2% peak43,054 · 18.2% peak62,412 · 26.4% peak62,412 · 26.4% peak21,503 · 9.1% peak21,503 · 9.1% peak58,193 · 24.6% peak58,193 · 24.6% peak10,872 · 4.6% peak10,872 · 4.6% peak16,847 · 7.1% peak16,847 · 7.1% peak18,175 · 7.7% peak18,175 · 7.7% peak10,353 · 4.4% peak10,353 · 4.4% peak10,175 · 4.3% peak10,175 · 4.3% peak9,347 · 4.0% peak9,347 · 4.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 963613 · peak 236308 · CV 1.22

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0035 · skew=0.04 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.71 (mesokurtic)43210 2-67.89bpbin -67.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -67.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-56.05bpbin -56.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -56.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-44.21bpbin -44.21bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -44.21bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-32.38bpbin -32.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -32.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-20.54bpbin -20.54bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -20.54bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-8.70bpbin -8.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -8.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 43.14bpbin 3.14bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 3.14bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 314.97bpbin 14.97bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 14.97bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 126.81bpbin 26.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 26.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 238.65bpbin 38.65bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 38.65bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 150.49bpbin 50.49bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 50.49bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 162.32bpbin 62.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 62.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.00 · kurt=-0.61 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0448
Mid price
$0.0448
24h change
-1.44%
Mark–mid spread
1.34 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0455

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0451$95% CI: [0.0450$, 0.0452$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.57%
med MEDIAN0.0452$Q₁ 0.0449$ · Q₃ 0.0453$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0010$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0447$Q₁ 0.0449$med 0.0452$Q₃ 0.0453$max 0.0457$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.202approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.859mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.87
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.40
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.049251%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.133
σᵣ STD / h0.371678%σ²ᵣ = 0.138×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.55×
σ ANNUALISED34.79%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.372%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.40negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.35downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.00approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.46mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-431.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.67%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.666%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.727%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.715%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.16%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.666%VaR₉₉−0.727%ES₉₅−0.715%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK4.57$
−2.16% drawdown over 16h
4.47$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.20% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.222 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0455
Bollinger MA
$0.0451
Bollinger lower
$0.0446

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.337within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.112lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.539random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.420significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.539
H = 0.539RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.337k=2-0.112k=3-0.157k=4+0.176k=5-0.1890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.42)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.41high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.42)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$43.45k
Open interest (USD)
$3.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.01x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.68% · worst -0.74% · typical |Δ| 0.30%MILD BEARISH -1.18%BEST+0.68%15hWORST-0.74%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.18%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.01%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.17%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.18%+0.81%-1.37%-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.18% · 14h0.18% · 14h0.18%14h0.68% · 15h0.68% · 15h0.68%15h★ BEST-0.69% · 16h-0.69% · 16h-0.69%16h-0.52% · 17h-0.52% · 17h-0.52%17h0.01% · 18h0.01% · 18h0.01%18h0.55% · 19h0.55% · 19h0.55%19h-0.42% · 20h-0.42% · 20h-0.42%20h0.41% · 21h0.41% · 21h0.41%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h-0.16% · 23h-0.16% · 23h-0.16%23h-0.18% · 00h-0.18% · 00h-0.18%00h0.30% · 01h0.30% · 01h0.30%01h-0.36% · 02h-0.36% · 02h-0.36%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h-0.74% · 04h-0.74% · 04h-0.74%04h▼ WORST0.17% · 05h0.17% · 05h0.17%05h0.04% · 06h0.04% · 06h0.04%06h-0.37% · 07h-0.37% · 07h-0.37%07h0.37% · 08h0.37% · 08h0.37%08h0.07% · 09h0.07% · 09h0.07%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11h0.07% · 12h0.07% · 12h0.07%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.68% · worst -0.74% · typical |Δ| 0.299%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.19%)FINAL-1.19%MAX DD-2.17%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.81%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9881 · peak 1.0081 · range [0.9863, 1.0081]1.00810.9863break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0081UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.17% · moderate0%-2.17%▼ TROUGH -2.17%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.17%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.17%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9881 (-1.19%) · max DD -2.17% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-16.23 · σ=14.70UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -11.24 (+0.34σ vs μ)48.9624.480.00-24.48-48.96μ = -16.23-12.23-12.235.885.88-10.62-10.62-20.02-20.02-11.09-11.091.731.73-5.62-5.62-17.80-17.80-15.76-15.76-36.17-36.17-42.71-42.71-27.08-27.08-18.19-18.19-48.96-48.96-15.02-15.02-17.50-17.507.107.10-13.09-13.09-11.24-11.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -11.243 · range [-48.96, 7.10] · μ -16.231 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.6970 · σ=9.0207 · range [24.1218, 54.0035] · R²=0.613▼ FALLING -47.60%σ EXTREME 24.58%LAST 24.312354.003546.533139.062631.592224.1218μ = 36.6970max 54.0035min 24.1218dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 24.31% · range [24.12%, 54.00%] · μ 36.70% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.404 · σ=0.206MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.312 (+0.45σ vs μ)0.6790.3390.000-0.339-0.679μ = -0.404-0.023-0.0230.0210.021-0.232-0.232-0.072-0.072-0.508-0.508-0.614-0.614-0.582-0.582-0.527-0.527-0.450-0.450-0.501-0.501-0.486-0.486-0.679-0.679-0.564-0.564-0.598-0.598-0.513-0.513-0.284-0.284-0.400-0.400-0.350-0.350-0.312-0.312v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.312 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2134
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8988
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.3080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2766
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5144
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5265
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8324
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5986
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1099
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.514 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.51e-5 · top T=2.00h (24.5%) · top-3 cover 53.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.4e-53.3e-52.2e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.25e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.25e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.72e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.72e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.66e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.66e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.30e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.30e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.02e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.02e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.59e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.59e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.41e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.41e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.62e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.62e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 24.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 24.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.811e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-52.63×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -22.40400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.010
annualized -22.40
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -744% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.79σ ann 38% · Sortino -11.64 · n 4999
-2374%-1891%-1407%-923%-439%45%-743.9%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)37.6%Ann. vol σ-1978.7%Sharpe (ann)-1164.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0430.0440.0440.0450.0460.047t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Snapshot age
668ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5a0443583806b868636264252337c1629b380695a37efec9f096802c9cd1f4aa · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.76K
bid $2.36K · ask $396
Depth within 10bp
$7.93K
bid $4.34K · ask $3.59K
Depth within 50bp
$67.55K
bid $59.19K · ask $8.36K
Mid price
0.044808
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.569
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.103
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cfx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0448243.78bp0.0448313FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04494931.57bp0.04558118FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.045389129.81bp0.04590620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0447982.16bp0.0447882FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04473416.32bp0.04461715FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04461941.99bp0.04446320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-cfx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$963.61K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cfx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.242 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$544.45K
real volume
Sell weight
$332.60K
real volume
Net delta
$211.85K
buyers net
Imbalance
24.16%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cfx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.21% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.045729→0.0451771.207%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.045252→0.0448160.963%3
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.045428→0.0451170.685%2

/api/asset/hl-cfx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
37.60%
σ per bar = 0.000164
Mean return (annualised)
-743.92%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.79
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.32%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 951 bars

/api/asset/hl-cfx/risk · same metrics, JSON