HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CC

CC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cc · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.23%
realized vol (ann.)
66.73%
max drawdown
2.26%
sharpe
-34.09
ulcer index
1.10%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.86%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2059.34
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1115.41
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.90
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.23%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.23%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.158
24h Δ · live
-3.23%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
CC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1607 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1572, 0.1631] · R²=0.370▼ FALLING -2.89%σ NORMAL 1.07%LAST 0.15770.16310.16170.16020.15870.1572μ = 0.1607max 0.1631min 0.1572dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.16
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,623,328 · μ=144933.1 · σ=149932.4 · CV=1.03BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 144933500,81850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 500818 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$0.1577
$mid $
$0.1577
◉prev-day close
$0.1629
Δ24h Δ %
-3.226%
$24h vol $
$561.22k
◐open interest $
$5.45M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1607 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1572, 0.1631] · R²=0.370▼ FALLING -2.89%σ NORMAL 1.07%LAST 0.15770.16310.16170.16020.15870.1572μ = 0.1607max 0.1631min 0.1572dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1577 · 24h -3.23% · range $[0.1572, 0.1631]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1559, 0.1634] · σ=0.0017 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -3.24%CLOSE 0.1577 vs OPEN 0.1630 (-3.24%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.15770.16340.16150.15970.15780.1559μ close = 0.1607O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.162 (-0.36%)-1.5%O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.159 C0.160 (-1.47%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.26%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.69%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.161 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.71%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.02%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (+0.01%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.163 C0.163 (-0.07%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.09%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.98%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.00%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.37%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.17%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.27%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.12%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.32%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.42%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.156 C0.157 (-1.17%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.156 C0.157 (-1.17%)O0.157 H0.157 L0.156 C0.157 (+0.11%)O0.157 H0.157 L0.156 C0.157 (+0.11%)O0.157 H0.158 L0.157 C0.158 (+0.22%)O0.157 H0.158 L0.157 C0.158 (+0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,623,328 · μ=144933.1 · σ=149932.4 · CV=1.03BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=200125,205250,409375,614500,818μ = 144933148,018 · 29.6% peak148,018 · 29.6% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak140,480 · 28.1% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak256,514 · 51.2% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak55,147 · 11.0% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak28,919 · 5.8% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak102,645 · 20.5% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak75,630 · 15.1% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak56,737 · 11.3% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak43,330 · 8.7% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak7,632 · 1.5% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak13,150 · 2.6% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak143,958 · 28.7% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak78,132 · 15.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak52,859 · 10.6% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak118,904 · 23.7% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak66,112 · 13.2% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak65,108 · 13.0% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak16,587 · 3.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak76,849 · 15.3% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak383,273 · 76.5% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak480,983 · 96.0% peak500,818500,818 · 100.0% peak500,818 · 100.0% peak382,842 · 76.4% peak382,842 · 76.4% peak311,907 · 62.3% peak311,907 · 62.3% peak16,794 · 3.4% peak16,794 · 3.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3623328 · peak 500818 · CV 1.03

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0049 · skew=-0.88 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.68 (mesokurtic)54310 1-139.56bpbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -139.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-120.98bpbin -120.98bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -120.98bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-102.41bp 1-83.83bpbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -83.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-65.25bp 2-46.67bpbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -46.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-28.10bpbin -28.10bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -28.10bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-9.52bpbin -9.52bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -9.52bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 39.06bpbin 9.06bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 9.06bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 527.63bpbin 27.63bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 27.63bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak46.21bp 264.79bpbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 64.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.92 · kurt=0.93 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1577
Mid price
$0.1577
24h change
-3.23%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1629

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1607$95% CI: [0.1600$, 0.1614$]
σ STD DEV0.0017$σ² = 0.030×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.07%
med MEDIAN0.1606$Q₁ 0.1600$ · Q₃ 0.1623$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0059$ · IQR 0.0024$ (1.349σ→0.0023$)
min 0.1572$Q₁ 0.1600$med 0.1606$Q₃ 0.1623$max 0.1631$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.358approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.702mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.45
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-21.91
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.122336%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.234
σᵣ STD / h0.522632%σ²ᵣ = 0.273×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.27×
σ ANNUALISED48.92%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.523%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-21.91negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-18.70downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.98left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.45leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.85
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1071.66%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.18%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.176%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.428%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.357%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.63%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.176%VaR₉₉−1.428%ES₉₅−1.357%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK16.31$
−3.63% drawdown over 14h
15.72$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.77% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
31.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.098 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1645
Bollinger MA
$0.1607
Bollinger lower
$0.1570

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.104within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.065lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.011strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.678significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.011
H = 1.011STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.104k=2-0.065k=3+0.190k=4-0.135k=5-0.2390+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.68)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.68)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$561.22k
Open interest (USD)
$5.45M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.37%MILD BEARISH -2.94%BEST+0.74%18hWORST-1.49%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.94%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -2.96%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.94%+0.44%-3.27%-1.49% · 14h-1.49% · 14h-1.49%14h▼ WORST-0.08% · 15h-0.08% · 15h-0.08%15h0.34% · 16h0.34% · 16h0.34%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h0.74% · 18h0.74% · 18h0.74%18h★ BEST0.69% · 19h0.69% · 19h0.69%19h0.19% · 20h0.19% · 20h0.19%20h0.30% · 21h0.30% · 21h0.30%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.07% · 23h-0.07% · 23h-0.07%23h0.05% · 00h0.05% · 00h0.05%00h-0.89% · 01h-0.89% · 01h-0.89%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h-0.37% · 03h-0.37% · 03h-0.37%03h-0.16% · 04h-0.16% · 04h-0.16%04h-0.22% · 05h-0.22% · 05h-0.22%05h0.14% · 06h0.14% · 06h0.14%06h-0.37% · 07h-0.37% · 07h-0.37%07h-0.22% · 08h-0.22% · 08h-0.22%08h0.22% · 09h0.22% · 09h0.22%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-1.23% · 11h-1.23% · 11h-1.23%11h0.11% · 12h0.11% · 12h0.11%12h0.22% · 13h0.22% · 13h0.22%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.85%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.74% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.372%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.93%)FINAL-2.93%MAX DD-3.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.42%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9707 · peak 1.0042 · range [0.9675, 1.0042]1.00420.9675break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0042UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.65% · moderate0%-3.65%▼ TROUGH -3.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.65%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.56%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9707 (-2.93%) · max DD -3.65% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-20.47 · σ=59.41UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.71 (-0.31σ vs μ)99.9149.960.00-49.96-99.91μ = -20.47-1.04-1.0462.9962.9985.4485.4461.6161.6177.5777.5758.3458.34-18.42-18.42-26.83-26.83-59.67-59.67-64.24-64.24-72.51-72.51-65.14-65.14-75.98-75.98-99.91-99.91-41.43-41.43-52.68-52.68-58.63-58.63-59.76-59.76-38.71-38.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.715 · range [-99.91, 85.44] · μ -20.474 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=36.3808 · σ=13.7619 · range [17.4729, 77.4827] · R²=0.037▼ FALLING -31.98%σ EXTREME 37.83%LAST 52.704777.482762.480247.477832.475317.4729μ = 36.3808max 77.4827min 17.4729dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 52.70% · range [17.47%, 77.48%] · μ 36.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.213 · σ=0.288MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.024 (+0.66σ vs μ)0.6700.3350.000-0.335-0.670μ = -0.2130.0920.092-0.188-0.188-0.226-0.226-0.119-0.1190.4200.4200.1770.1770.0030.003-0.228-0.228-0.466-0.466-0.542-0.542-0.670-0.670-0.279-0.279-0.558-0.558-0.401-0.401-0.349-0.349-0.549-0.5490.0690.069-0.211-0.211-0.024-0.024v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.024 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.9499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0511
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9346
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5609
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7560
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8265
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4993
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0418
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8873
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.957 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.64e-5 · top T=3.43h (22.8%) · top-3 cover 60.9%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)7.2e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.95e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.95e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.50e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.22e-5 · 22.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.22e-5 · 22.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.16e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.16e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.44e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.44e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.99e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.99e-6 · 1.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=3.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.171e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-92.55×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -40.88400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -40.88
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -44.37σ ann 48% · Sortino -22.61 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5324%-4248%-3171%-2095%-1019%58%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)47.9%Ann. vol σ-4436.6%Sharpe (ann)-2261.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1500.1530.1570.1610.1640.168t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:29:27 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:29:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b0e6d3c2aeae7359ec13fb755bdf814850fb4fe62ca2d1d923d82c1694021c60 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.00K
bid $611 · ask $390
Depth within 10bp
$6.72K
bid $4.49K · ask $2.23K
Depth within 50bp
$23.11K
bid $13.60K · ask $9.50K
Mid price
0.157665
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.082
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.059
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1577304.15bp0.1577502FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.15800821.76bp0.15866018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.15812629.24bp0.15905020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1576113.45bp0.1575802FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.15745413.36bp0.15715015FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.15733021.22bp0.15683020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-cc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.62M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.250 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.30M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.17M
real volume
Net delta
$867.87K
sellers net
Imbalance
-24.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
25.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.71% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z3.0h0.159960→0.1572201.713%4
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z4.0h0.163030→0.1603401.650%5
#32026-06-13 14:00:00Z2.0h0.162440→0.1599201.551%3

/api/asset/hl-cc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
47.94%
σ per bar = 0.000209
Mean return (annualised)
-2126.88%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-44.37
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.25%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.16 over 4152 bars

/api/asset/hl-cc/risk · same metrics, JSON