HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CAKE

CAKE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cake · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.29%
realized vol (ann.)
34.67%
max drawdown
0.89%
sharpe
-1.12
ulcer index
0.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-93.07
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-49.88
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.29%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cake/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.351
24h Δ · live
0.29%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
CAKE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.3491 · σ=0.0104 · range [1.3321, 1.3818] · R²=0.260▲ RISING +0.41%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 1.35161.38181.36941.35691.34451.3321μ = 1.3491max 1.3818min 1.3321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.35
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=115,586 · μ=4623.4 · σ=4962.4 · CV=1.07BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1705,18110,36215,54320,724μ = 462320,723.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 20724 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$1.3515
$mid $
$1.3515
◉prev-day close
$1.3476
Δ24h Δ %
+0.289%
$24h vol $
$155.43k
◐open interest $
$689.88k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.3491 · σ=0.0104 · range [1.3321, 1.3818] · R²=0.260▲ RISING +0.41%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 1.35161.38181.36941.35691.34451.3321μ = 1.3491max 1.3818min 1.3321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.3515 · 24h 0.29% · range $[1.3321, 1.3818]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [1.3314, 1.3830] · σ=0.0104 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=58%BULLISH +0.27%CLOSE 1.3516 vs OPEN 1.3479 (+0.27%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.35161.38301.37011.35721.34431.3314μ close = 1.3491O1.348 H1.349 L1.345 C1.346 (-0.13%)O1.348 H1.349 L1.345 C1.346 (-0.13%)O1.346 H1.351 L1.346 C1.350 (+0.28%)O1.346 H1.351 L1.346 C1.350 (+0.28%)O1.350 H1.352 L1.347 C1.349 (-0.07%)O1.350 H1.352 L1.347 C1.349 (-0.07%)O1.349 H1.349 L1.335 C1.338 (-0.82%)O1.349 H1.349 L1.335 C1.338 (-0.82%)O1.339 H1.339 L1.332 C1.332 (-0.49%)O1.339 H1.339 L1.332 C1.332 (-0.49%)O1.333 H1.339 L1.333 C1.336 (+0.25%)O1.333 H1.339 L1.333 C1.336 (+0.25%)O1.337 H1.337 L1.331 C1.335 (-0.14%)O1.337 H1.337 L1.331 C1.335 (-0.14%)O1.335 H1.340 L1.334 C1.339 (+0.28%)O1.335 H1.340 L1.334 C1.339 (+0.28%)O1.339 H1.351 L1.338 C1.346 (+0.57%)O1.339 H1.351 L1.338 C1.346 (+0.57%)O1.345 H1.349 L1.343 C1.347 (+0.13%)O1.345 H1.349 L1.343 C1.347 (+0.13%)O1.347 H1.351 L1.346 C1.351 (+0.28%)O1.347 H1.351 L1.346 C1.351 (+0.28%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.349 (-0.15%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.349 (-0.15%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.348 (-0.19%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.348 (-0.19%)O1.347 H1.354 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.34%)O1.347 H1.354 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.34%)O1.351 H1.352 L1.349 C1.351 (-0.01%)O1.351 H1.352 L1.349 C1.351 (-0.01%)O1.352 H1.352 L1.341 C1.341 (-0.81%)O1.352 H1.352 L1.341 C1.341 (-0.81%)O1.341 H1.366 L1.341 C1.366 (+1.92%)O1.341 H1.366 L1.341 C1.366 (+1.92%)O1.367 H1.382 L1.367 C1.382 (+1.08%)O1.367 H1.382 L1.367 C1.382 (+1.08%)-2.1%O1.383 H1.383 L1.354 C1.354 (-2.11%)O1.383 H1.383 L1.354 C1.354 (-2.11%)O1.354 H1.362 L1.350 C1.362 (+0.56%)O1.354 H1.362 L1.350 C1.362 (+0.56%)O1.361 H1.361 L1.350 C1.352 (-0.71%)O1.361 H1.361 L1.350 C1.352 (-0.71%)O1.351 H1.357 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.351 H1.357 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.357 L1.350 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.357 L1.350 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.354 L1.345 C1.348 (-0.28%)O1.352 H1.354 L1.345 C1.348 (-0.28%)O1.350 H1.352 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.14%)O1.350 H1.352 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=115,586 · μ=4623.4 · σ=4962.4 · CV=1.07BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1705,18110,36215,54320,724μ = 46234,024.5 · 19.4% peak4,024.5 · 19.4% peak4,129.7 · 19.9% peak4,129.7 · 19.9% peak2,781.4 · 13.4% peak2,781.4 · 13.4% peak4,902.7 · 23.7% peak4,902.7 · 23.7% peak2,797.4 · 13.5% peak2,797.4 · 13.5% peak2,528.5 · 12.2% peak2,528.5 · 12.2% peak3,569.5 · 17.2% peak3,569.5 · 17.2% peak2,502.2 · 12.1% peak2,502.2 · 12.1% peak1,935.7 · 9.3% peak1,935.7 · 9.3% peak1,318.7 · 6.4% peak1,318.7 · 6.4% peak1,348.2 · 6.5% peak1,348.2 · 6.5% peak1,716.7 · 8.3% peak1,716.7 · 8.3% peak2,669.3 · 12.9% peak2,669.3 · 12.9% peak1,623.3 · 7.8% peak1,623.3 · 7.8% peak1,412.4 · 6.8% peak1,412.4 · 6.8% peak2,964.5 · 14.3% peak2,964.5 · 14.3% peak18,088.5 · 87.3% peak18,088.5 · 87.3% peak5,118.2 · 24.7% peak5,118.2 · 24.7% peak10,507.2 · 50.7% peak10,507.2 · 50.7% peak20,723.520,723.5 · 100.0% peak20,723.5 · 100.0% peak6,468.1 · 31.2% peak6,468.1 · 31.2% peak2,587.9 · 12.5% peak2,587.9 · 12.5% peak1,360.1 · 6.6% peak1,360.1 · 6.6% peak7,130.6 · 34.4% peak7,130.6 · 34.4% peak1,377.1 · 6.6% peak1,377.1 · 6.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 115586 · peak 20724 · CV 1.07

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0072 · skew=-0.33 (symmetric) · kurt=0.99 (mesokurtic)75420 1-188.27bpbin -188.27bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -188.27bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-155.39bp-122.51bp 3-89.62bpbin -89.62bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -89.62bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-56.74bpbin -56.74bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -56.74bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 4-23.85bpbin -23.85bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -23.85bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 59.03bpbin 9.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 9.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 741.91bpbin 41.91bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 41.91bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 174.80bpbin 74.80bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 74.80bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1107.68bpbin 107.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 107.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak140.57bp 1173.45bpbin 173.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 173.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.22 · kurt=2.33 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.3515
Mid price
$1.3515
24h change
+0.29%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$1.3476

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.02)
μ MEAN1.3491$95% CI: [1.3451$, 1.3532$]
σ STD DEV0.0104$σ² = 1.072×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.77%
med MEDIAN1.3493$Q₁ 1.3461$ · Q₃ 1.3517$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0497$ · IQR 0.0056$ (1.349σ→0.0140$)
min 1.3321$Q₁ 1.3461$med 1.3493$Q₃ 1.3517$max 1.3818$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.052right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.016leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.49
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.80
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.17
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.016990%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.023
σᵣ STD / h0.731876%σ²ᵣ = 0.536×10⁻⁴ · CV = 43.08×
σ ANNUALISED68.50%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.732%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.17excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.10strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)61.02exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.23approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.19leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 61.02
EXPECTED EDGE+148.83%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.80%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.804%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.763%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.429%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.44%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.804%VaR₉₉−1.763%ES₉₅−1.429%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK138.18$
−2.44% drawdown over 6h
134.81$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.78× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.50% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.523 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.3717
Bollinger MA
$1.3506
Bollinger lower
$1.3296

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.242within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.250lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.960strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.842significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.960
H = 0.960STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.242k=2-0.250k=3+0.218k=4-0.212k=5-0.0080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.84)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.84)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$155.43k
Open interest (USD)
$689.88k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.23x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.172× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.586× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.793×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.90% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +0.41%BEST+1.90%05hWORST-2.05%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.21%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.41%+2.62%-1.05%0.27% · 14h0.27% · 14h0.27%14h-0.06% · 15h-0.06% · 15h-0.06%15h-0.81% · 16h-0.81% · 16h-0.81%16h-0.44% · 17h-0.44% · 17h-0.44%17h0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h-0.08% · 19h-0.08% · 19h-0.08%19h0.28% · 20h0.28% · 20h0.28%20h0.57% · 21h0.57% · 21h0.57%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.28% · 23h0.28% · 23h0.28%23h-0.12% · 00h-0.12% · 00h-0.12%00h-0.13% · 01h-0.13% · 01h-0.13%01h0.27% · 02h0.27% · 02h0.27%02h-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.77% · 04h-0.77% · 04h-0.77%04h1.90% · 05h1.90% · 05h1.90%05h★ BEST1.13% · 06h1.13% · 06h1.13%06h-2.05% · 07h-2.05% · 07h-2.05%07h▼ WORST0.59% · 08h0.59% · 08h0.59%08h-0.74% · 09h-0.74% · 09h-0.74%09h0.01% · 10h0.01% · 10h0.01%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11h-0.30% · 12h-0.30% · 12h-0.30%12h0.26% · 13h0.26% · 13h0.26%13hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.90% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.477%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.35%FINAL+0.35%MAX DD-2.46%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.62%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0035 · peak 1.0262 · range [0.9896, 1.0262]1.02620.9896break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0262UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.46% · moderate0%-2.46%▼ TROUGH -2.46%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.46%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.31%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.79%bar 15-16 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.46%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0035 (0.35%) · max DD -2.46% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=13.51 · σ=35.92MIXED EDGELAST -5.52 (-0.53σ vs μ)97.2648.630.00-48.63-97.26μ = 13.51-30.26-30.26-29.41-29.41-5.58-5.5830.0430.0497.2697.2658.5558.5554.1554.1553.4553.4528.6428.64-19.78-19.7819.5819.5838.6838.685.145.148.668.660.640.649.249.24-14.55-14.55-42.18-42.18-5.52-5.52v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.517 · range [-42.18, 97.26] · μ 13.514 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=65.6253 · σ=43.4717 · range [17.0076, 135.9915] · R²=0.429▲ RISING +7.74%σ EXTREME 66.24%LAST 43.0391135.9915106.245576.499546.753617.0076μ = 65.6253max 135.9915min 17.0076dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.04% · range [17.01%, 135.99%] · μ 65.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.200 · σ=0.240MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.529 (-1.37σ vs μ)0.7060.3530.000-0.353-0.706μ = -0.2000.0820.0820.0730.0730.2520.252-0.200-0.200-0.353-0.353-0.212-0.2120.1080.108-0.125-0.125-0.384-0.384-0.065-0.065-0.337-0.337-0.008-0.008-0.184-0.184-0.288-0.288-0.311-0.311-0.171-0.171-0.706-0.706-0.450-0.450-0.529-0.529v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.529 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.4183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0055
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2873
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4551
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0534
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4657
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1427
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.554 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.17e-5 · top T=3.00h (23.1%) · top-3 cover 51.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.63e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.63e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.27e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.27e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.56e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.56e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.69e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.69e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.15e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.15e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 23.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 23.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.80e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.80e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.10e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.10e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.79e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.79e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.98e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.98e-6 · 1.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.200e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 30.58× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
30.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 14.03400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 14.03
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 703% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 14.66σ ann 48% · Sortino 8.93 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%352%704%1055%1407%1759%702.7%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)47.9%Ann. vol σ1465.8%Sharpe (ann)893.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.2881.3181.3491.3791.4101.440t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:29:27 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:29:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e85aaea52b7d5bb4821e4927ecb5d274fc0374e0f88fb072f0b67b03d9689c75 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.39K
bid $4.45K · ask $945
Depth within 10bp
$9.72K
bid $6.59K · ask $3.13K
Depth within 50bp
$49.00K
bid $29.52K · ask $19.48K
Mid price
1.351500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.207
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.400
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cake/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.35192.87bp1.35233FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.353816.79bp1.355213FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.355126.68bp1.357420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.35122.49bp1.35112FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.35057.54bp1.34948FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.348720.96bp1.345420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-cake/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$115.59K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cake/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.159 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$64.64K
real volume
Sell weight
$46.92K
real volume
Net delta
$17.72K
buyers net
Imbalance
15.89%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cake/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z4.0h1.3818→1.35172.178%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.3497→1.33211.304%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms1.3512→1.34060.784%1

/api/asset/hl-cake/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
47.94%
σ per bar = 0.000209
Mean return (annualised)
702.70%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.85%
peak 1.38 → trough 1.34 over 3499 bars

/api/asset/hl-cake/risk · same metrics, JSON