HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BLUR

BLUR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-blur · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.16%
realized vol (ann.)
39.96%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
6.95
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
563.47
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
335.53
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.16%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
8.89%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.16%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-blur/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.018
24h Δ · live
-3.16%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BLUR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0182 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0179, 0.0185] · R²=0.893▼ FALLING -2.82%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.01800.01850.01840.01820.01800.0179μ = 0.0182max 0.0185min 0.0179dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.7%Short fee 52.3%SHORT FEE52.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001015% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,427,956 · μ=257118.2 · σ=107235.0 · CV=0.42STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130128,967257,934386,900515,867μ = 257118515,86750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 515867 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.1s
$mark $
$0.018
$mid $
$0.018
◉prev-day close
$0.0186
Δ24h Δ %
-3.163%
$24h vol $
$115.40k
◐open interest $
$534.45k
%funding (1h)
0.001015%
%funding (yr)
+8.89%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0182 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0179, 0.0185] · R²=0.893▼ FALLING -2.82%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.01800.01850.01840.01820.01800.0179μ = 0.0182max 0.0185min 0.0179dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0180 · 24h -3.16% · range $[0.0179, 0.0185]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0179, 0.0186] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -3.33%CLOSE 0.0180 vs OPEN 0.0186 (-3.33%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01800.01860.01840.01820.01800.0179μ close = 0.0182O0.019 H0.019 L0.019 C0.019 (-0.53%)O0.019 H0.019 L0.019 C0.019 (-0.53%)O0.019 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.18%)O0.019 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.18%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.019 (+0.23%)O0.018 H0.019 L0.018 C0.019 (+0.23%)O0.019 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.70%)O0.019 H0.019 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.70%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.08%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.08%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.44%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.44%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.29%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.29%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.16%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.16%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.21%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.21%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.03%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.03%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.82%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.82%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.23%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.23%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.26%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.26%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)-1.0%O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.97%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.97%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.42%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.42%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.76%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.76%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.13%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.13%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.51%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.51%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.30%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.30%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.69%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.69%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.14%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.14%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.31%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.31%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,427,956 · μ=257118.2 · σ=107235.0 · CV=0.42STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130128,967257,934386,900515,867μ = 257118266,304 · 51.6% peak266,304 · 51.6% peak219,711 · 42.6% peak219,711 · 42.6% peak211,364 · 41.0% peak211,364 · 41.0% peak338,355 · 65.6% peak338,355 · 65.6% peak257,432 · 49.9% peak257,432 · 49.9% peak449,851 · 87.2% peak449,851 · 87.2% peak287,133 · 55.7% peak287,133 · 55.7% peak167,445 · 32.5% peak167,445 · 32.5% peak243,574 · 47.2% peak243,574 · 47.2% peak290,392 · 56.3% peak290,392 · 56.3% peak217,574 · 42.2% peak217,574 · 42.2% peak142,574 · 27.6% peak142,574 · 27.6% peak427,381 · 82.8% peak427,381 · 82.8% peak200,051 · 38.8% peak200,051 · 38.8% peak358,792 · 69.6% peak358,792 · 69.6% peak218,659 · 42.4% peak218,659 · 42.4% peak515,867515,867 · 100.0% peak515,867 · 100.0% peak307,539 · 59.6% peak307,539 · 59.6% peak160,239 · 31.1% peak160,239 · 31.1% peak123,522 · 23.9% peak123,522 · 23.9% peak332,814 · 64.5% peak332,814 · 64.5% peak278,224 · 53.9% peak278,224 · 53.9% peak118,635 · 23.0% peak118,635 · 23.0% peak229,316 · 44.5% peak229,316 · 44.5% peak65,208 · 12.6% peak65,208 · 12.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6427956 · peak 515867 · CV 0.42

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0037 · skew=-0.34 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.91 (mesokurtic)32210 1-89.94bpbin -89.94bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -89.94bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak-78.18bp 3-66.43bpbin -66.43bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -66.43bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 1-54.68bpbin -54.68bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -54.68bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 1-42.93bpbin -42.93bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -42.93bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 2-31.18bpbin -31.18bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -31.18bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 3-19.43bpbin -19.43bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -19.43bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 3-7.67bpbin -7.67bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -7.67bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 24.08bpbin 4.08bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 4.08bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 215.83bpbin 15.83bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 15.83bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 327.58bpbin 27.58bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 27.58bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 339.33bpbin 39.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 39.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.39 · kurt=-0.81 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.018
Mid price
$0.018
24h change
-3.16%
Mark–mid spread
6.11 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0186

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.64)
μ MEAN0.0182$95% CI: [0.0181$, 0.0183$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.24%
med MEDIAN0.0182$Q₁ 0.0180$ · Q₃ 0.0184$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0179$Q₁ 0.0180$med 0.0182$Q₃ 0.0184$max 0.0185$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.161approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.642platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.74
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.88
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-27.95
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.119095%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.299
σᵣ STD / h0.398802%σ²ᵣ = 0.159×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.35×
σ ANNUALISED37.33%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.399%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-27.95negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.45downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.42approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.71mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1043.27%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.718%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.904%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.840%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.50%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.718%VaR₉₉−0.904%ES₉₅−0.840%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK1.85$
−3.50% drawdown over 19h
1.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.62% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.317 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0186
Bollinger MA
$0.0182
Bollinger lower
$0.0177

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.322within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.067lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.786strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-13.882significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.786
H = 0.786STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.322k=2+0.067k=3-0.067k=4+0.316k=5-0.3930+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.88)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.88)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$115.40k
Open interest (USD)
$534.45k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.22x
1h funding
0.001015%
Funding (annualised)
+8.89%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BEARISH -2.86%BEST+0.45%08hWORST-0.96%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.86%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.92%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.86%+0.00%-3.56%-0.29% · 13h-0.29% · 13h-0.29%13h0.03% · 14h0.03% · 14h0.03%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h-0.58% · 16h-0.58% · 16h-0.58%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.46% · 18h-0.46% · 18h-0.46%18h0.32% · 19h0.32% · 19h0.32%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.24% · 22h-0.24% · 22h-0.24%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h-0.08% · 01h-0.08% · 01h-0.08%01h-0.27% · 02h-0.27% · 02h-0.27%02h-0.07% · 03h-0.07% · 03h-0.07%03h-0.96% · 04h-0.96% · 04h-0.96%04h▼ WORST0.29% · 05h0.29% · 05h0.29%05h-0.64% · 06h-0.64% · 06h-0.64%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h0.45% · 08h0.45% · 08h0.45%08h★ BEST0.36% · 09h0.36% · 09h0.36%09h-0.70% · 10h-0.70% · 10h-0.70%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h0.43% · 12h0.43% · 12h0.43%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.68%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 7BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.333%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.84%)FINAL-2.84%MAX DD-3.51%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9716 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9649, 1.0000]1.00000.9649break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.51% · moderate0%-3.51%▼ TROUGH -3.51%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.51%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.51%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9716 (-2.84%) · max DD -3.51% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-38.05 · σ=29.07UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 18.36 (+1.94σ vs μ)93.9946.990.00-46.99-93.99μ = -38.05-46.02-46.02-15.30-15.30-22.71-22.71-24.38-24.38-12.17-12.17-23.76-23.76-29.83-29.83-56.59-56.59-62.67-62.67-93.99-93.99-90.53-90.53-60.89-60.89-59.93-59.93-64.07-64.07-31.55-31.55-17.72-17.72-12.19-12.19-16.94-16.9418.3618.36v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 18.356 · range [-93.99, 18.36] · μ -38.047 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.1625 · σ=8.8935 · range [23.1157, 54.6708] · R²=0.521▲ RISING +37.40%σ EXTREME 23.93%LAST 42.082554.670846.782038.893231.004423.1157μ = 37.1625max 54.6708min 23.1157dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.08% · range [23.12%, 54.67%] · μ 37.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.454 · σ=0.226MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.238 (+0.96σ vs μ)0.8050.4020.000-0.402-0.805μ = -0.454-0.559-0.559-0.612-0.612-0.720-0.720-0.526-0.526-0.741-0.741-0.583-0.583-0.100-0.100-0.231-0.231-0.298-0.298-0.494-0.494-0.433-0.433-0.584-0.584-0.733-0.733-0.805-0.805-0.465-0.465-0.173-0.173-0.188-0.188-0.144-0.144-0.238-0.238v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.238 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2171
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5441
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.2612
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1036
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7135
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8711
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4210
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1553
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.568 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.91e-5 · top T=2.00h (40.8%) · top-3 cover 71.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.4e-57.0e-54.7e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.10e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.10e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.03e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.03e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.56e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.56e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.78e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.78e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.28e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.28e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.04e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.04e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-5 · 40.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-5 · 40.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 40.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.297e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-37.89×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -751% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.87σ ann 45% · Sortino -11.64 · n 4999
-2024%-1609%-1193%-778%-362%53%-751.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)44.5%Ann. vol σ-1686.9%Sharpe (ann)-1163.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0170.0180.0180.0180.0190.019t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Snapshot age
4.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
55898d53535b8adbda28ce3756246f4d585d6e32a9a66607c34941a4e8ff9086 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.44K
bid $1.24K · ask $1.20K
Depth within 10bp
$5.50K
bid $2.68K · ask $2.82K
Depth within 50bp
$66.86K
bid $8.52K · ask $58.34K
Mid price
0.017992
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.323
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.198
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-blur/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0179951.72bp0.0179952FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01802015.88bp0.0180376FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01812473.52bp0.01854820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0179872.61bp0.0179843FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01793829.82bp0.01785310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.017512266.45bp0.01682820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.015e-5
0.00102% / hr
Annualised APR
8.898%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
41.1d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
41.1d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-8.898%41.1d1.12y
SHORTRECEIVE8.898%41.1d1.12y

/api/asset/hl-blur/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-blur/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.133 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.67M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.49M
real volume
Net delta
$820.64K
sellers net
Imbalance
-13.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-blur/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.80% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.018204→0.0178771.796%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.018415→0.0181551.412%3
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms0.018520→0.0183470.934%1

/api/asset/hl-blur/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
44.52%
σ per bar = 0.000194
Mean return (annualised)
-751.00%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.63%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 2413 bars

/api/asset/hl-blur/risk · same metrics, JSON