HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BANANA

BANANA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-banana · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.02%
realized vol (ann.)
46.15%
max drawdown
2.48%
sharpe
-83.67
ulcer index
0.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4339.76
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.25%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1716.80
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 41%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.02%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 8.6bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-banana/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.901
24h Δ · live
-3.02%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BANANA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.9622 · σ=0.0198 · range [2.9002, 2.9901] · R²=0.802▼ FALLING -3.01%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 2.90022.99012.96762.94512.92272.9002μ = 2.9622max 2.9901min 2.9002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.90
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=17,222 · μ=688.9 · σ=1767.4 · CV=2.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=302,1944,3886,5828,776μ = 6898,776.250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8776 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$2.9008
$mid $
$2.9008
◉prev-day close
$2.9912
Δ24h Δ %
-3.022%
$24h vol $
$50.23k
◐open interest $
$130.04k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.9622 · σ=0.0198 · range [2.9002, 2.9901] · R²=0.802▼ FALLING -3.01%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 2.90022.99012.96762.94512.92272.9002μ = 2.9622max 2.9901min 2.9002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.9008 · 24h -3.02% · range $[2.9002, 2.9901]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [2.8972, 3.0232] · σ=0.0198 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%STRONG BEARISH -3.13%CLOSE 2.9002 vs OPEN 2.9938 (-3.13%)&#9660; CLOSE 2.90023.02322.99172.96022.92872.8972μ close = 2.9622O2.994 H2.996 L2.983 C2.990 (-0.12%)O2.994 H2.996 L2.983 C2.990 (-0.12%)O2.999 H3.023 L2.979 C2.987 (-0.42%)O2.999 H3.023 L2.979 C2.987 (-0.42%)O2.978 H3.000 L2.965 C2.977 (-0.05%)O2.978 H3.000 L2.965 C2.977 (-0.05%)O2.971 H2.989 L2.971 C2.984 (+0.43%)O2.971 H2.989 L2.971 C2.984 (+0.43%)O2.983 H2.983 L2.981 C2.981 (-0.10%)O2.983 H2.983 L2.981 C2.981 (-0.10%)O2.971 H2.979 L2.961 C2.978 (+0.25%)O2.971 H2.979 L2.961 C2.978 (+0.25%)O2.973 H2.973 L2.970 C2.970 (-0.08%)O2.973 H2.973 L2.970 C2.970 (-0.08%)O2.972 H2.993 L2.958 C2.984 (+0.40%)O2.972 H2.993 L2.958 C2.984 (+0.40%)O2.981 H2.989 L2.973 C2.975 (-0.21%)O2.981 H2.989 L2.973 C2.975 (-0.21%)O2.970 H2.976 L2.959 C2.963 (-0.22%)O2.970 H2.976 L2.959 C2.963 (-0.22%)O2.964 H2.972 L2.959 C2.968 (+0.13%)O2.964 H2.972 L2.959 C2.968 (+0.13%)O2.968 H2.976 L2.967 C2.971 (+0.12%)O2.968 H2.976 L2.967 C2.971 (+0.12%)O2.977 H2.980 L2.962 C2.964 (-0.42%)O2.977 H2.980 L2.962 C2.964 (-0.42%)O2.968 H2.970 L2.961 C2.966 (-0.05%)O2.968 H2.970 L2.961 C2.966 (-0.05%)O2.971 H2.971 L2.948 C2.952 (-0.63%)O2.971 H2.971 L2.948 C2.952 (-0.63%)O2.954 H2.956 L2.940 C2.956 (+0.07%)O2.954 H2.956 L2.940 C2.956 (+0.07%)O2.959 H2.978 L2.955 C2.955 (-0.13%)O2.959 H2.978 L2.955 C2.955 (-0.13%)O2.955 H2.955 L2.940 C2.946 (-0.28%)O2.955 H2.955 L2.940 C2.946 (-0.28%)O2.946 H2.958 L2.946 C2.951 (+0.18%)O2.946 H2.958 L2.946 C2.951 (+0.18%)O2.941 H2.957 L2.941 C2.956 (+0.53%)O2.941 H2.957 L2.941 C2.956 (+0.53%)O2.952 H2.959 L2.950 C2.950 (-0.08%)O2.952 H2.959 L2.950 C2.950 (-0.08%)O2.944 H2.954 L2.941 C2.954 (+0.31%)O2.944 H2.954 L2.941 C2.954 (+0.31%)O2.952 H2.960 L2.940 C2.940 (-0.42%)O2.952 H2.960 L2.940 C2.940 (-0.42%)O2.945 H2.950 L2.929 C2.935 (-0.33%)O2.945 H2.950 L2.929 C2.935 (-0.33%)-1.2%O2.937 H2.937 L2.897 C2.900 (-1.25%)O2.937 H2.937 L2.897 C2.900 (-1.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=17,222 · μ=688.9 · σ=1767.4 · CV=2.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=302,1944,3886,5828,776μ = 689339.8 · 3.9% peak339.8 · 3.9% peak1,113.1 · 12.7% peak1,113.1 · 12.7% peak8,776.28,776.2 · 100.0% peak8,776.2 · 100.0% peak102.3 · 1.2% peak102.3 · 1.2% peak14.8 · 0.2% peak14.8 · 0.2% peak189 · 2.2% peak189 · 2.2% peak22 · 0.3% peak22 · 0.3% peak124 · 1.4% peak124 · 1.4% peak152.5 · 1.7% peak152.5 · 1.7% peak348.1 · 4.0% peak348.1 · 4.0% peak1,020.1 · 11.6% peak1,020.1 · 11.6% peak161.3 · 1.8% peak161.3 · 1.8% peak759.7 · 8.7% peak759.7 · 8.7% peak269.6 · 3.1% peak269.6 · 3.1% peak294.1 · 3.4% peak294.1 · 3.4% peak222.5 · 2.5% peak222.5 · 2.5% peak2,511.1 · 28.6% peak2,511.1 · 28.6% peak129.7 · 1.5% peak129.7 · 1.5% peak110.3 · 1.3% peak110.3 · 1.3% peak98.3 · 1.1% peak98.3 · 1.1% peak143.7 · 1.6% peak143.7 · 1.6% peak148.9 · 1.7% peak148.9 · 1.7% peak39.6 · 0.5% peak39.6 · 0.5% peak52.9 · 0.6% peak52.9 · 0.6% peak78.7 · 0.9% peak78.7 · 0.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 17222 · peak 8776 · CV 2.57

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0031 · skew=-1.11 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-112.77bpbin -112.77bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -112.77bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-99.08bp-85.39bp-71.70bp-58.01bp 3-44.32bpbin -44.32bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -44.32bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 5-30.63bpbin -30.63bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -30.63bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 4-16.93bpbin -16.93bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -16.93bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 2-3.24bpbin -3.24bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -3.24bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 710.45bpbin 10.45bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 10.45bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 124.14bpbin 24.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 24.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 137.83bpbin 37.83bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 37.83bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.18 · kurt=2.53 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.9008
Mid price
$2.9008
24h change
-3.02%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$2.9912

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.06)
μ MEAN2.9622$95% CI: [2.9544$, 2.9699$]
σ STD DEV0.0198$σ² = 3.918×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.67%
med MEDIAN2.9641$Q₁ 2.9521$ · Q₃ 2.9770$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0899$ · IQR 0.0249$ (1.349σ→0.0267$)
min 2.9002$Q₁ 2.9521$med 2.9641$Q₃ 2.9770$max 2.9901$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.056left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.516leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.54
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-35.71
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.127196%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.382
σᵣ STD / h0.333367%σ²ᵣ = 0.111×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.62×
σ ANNUALISED31.20%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.333%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-35.71negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-28.83downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.26left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.45leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1114.24%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.48%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.482%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.032%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.840%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.01%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.482%VaR₉₉−1.032%ES₉₅−0.840%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK299.01$
−3.01% drawdown over 24h
290.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.74× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.10% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
21.8 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.269 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$2.9936
Bollinger MA
$2.9568
Bollinger lower
$2.9200

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.193within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.110lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.751strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.660significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.751
H = 0.751STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.193k=2+0.110k=3-0.019k=4+0.050k=5-0.1580+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.70very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$50.23k
Open interest (USD)
$130.04k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.39x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.26%BEARISH SESSION -3.05%BEST+0.45%21hWORST-1.20%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.78%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.05%+0.00%-3.05%-0.12% · 15h-0.12% · 15h-0.12%15h-0.32% · 16h-0.32% · 16h-0.32%16h0.23% · 17h0.23% · 17h0.23%17h-0.11% · 18h-0.11% · 18h-0.11%18h-0.07% · 19h-0.07% · 19h-0.07%19h-0.27% · 20h-0.27% · 20h-0.27%20h0.45% · 21h0.45% · 21h0.45%21h★ BEST-0.29% · 22h-0.29% · 22h-0.29%22h-0.39% · 23h-0.39% · 23h-0.39%23h0.14% · 00h0.14% · 00h0.14%00h0.12% · 01h0.12% · 01h0.12%01h-0.25% · 02h-0.25% · 02h-0.25%02h0.08% · 03h0.08% · 03h0.08%03h-0.48% · 04h-0.48% · 04h-0.48%04h0.13% · 05h0.13% · 05h0.13%05h-0.03% · 06h-0.03% · 06h-0.03%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.17% · 08h0.17% · 08h0.17%08h0.17% · 09h0.17% · 09h0.17%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h0.14% · 11h0.14% · 11h0.14%11h-0.48% · 12h-0.48% · 12h-0.48%12h-0.15% · 13h-0.15% · 13h-0.15%13h-1.20% · 14h-1.20% · 14h-1.20%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.57%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.45% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.263%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.02%)FINAL-3.02%MAX DD-3.02%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9698 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9698, 1.0000]1.00000.9698break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.02% · moderate0%-3.02%▼ TROUGH -3.02%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.02%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.02%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9698 (-3.02%) · max DD -3.02% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-25.38 · σ=17.18UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -54.17 (-1.68σ vs μ)55.1227.560.00-27.56-55.12μ = -25.38-53.25-53.25-5.08-5.08-3.42-3.42-35.65-35.65-21.08-21.08-11.33-11.33-10.19-10.19-37.97-37.97-43.27-43.27-14.88-14.88-27.15-27.15-55.12-55.12-25.76-25.76-19.30-19.30-6.45-6.45-6.17-6.17-29.15-29.15-22.80-22.80-54.17-54.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -54.172 · range [-55.12, -3.42] · μ -25.379 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=26.1694 · σ=6.2829 · range [18.1251, 47.1647] · R²=0.016▲ RISING +160.22%σ EXTREME 24.01%LAST 47.164747.164739.904832.644925.385018.1251μ = 26.1694max 47.1647min 18.1251dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 47.16% · range [18.13%, 47.16%] · μ 26.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.368 · σ=0.168MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.137 (+1.37σ vs μ)0.6520.3260.000-0.326-0.652μ = -0.368-0.412-0.412-0.446-0.446-0.589-0.589-0.322-0.322-0.429-0.429-0.336-0.336-0.191-0.191-0.071-0.071-0.332-0.332-0.456-0.456-0.652-0.652-0.627-0.627-0.583-0.583-0.222-0.222-0.255-0.255-0.393-0.393-0.361-0.361-0.181-0.181-0.137-0.137v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.137 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
18.2178
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.2635
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8134
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.6688
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9018
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0040
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5802
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1141
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.519 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.30e-5 · top T=2.00h (35.5%) · top-3 cover 53.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.5e-54.1e-52.8e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.00e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.00e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.24e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.24e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.89e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.89e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.52e-5 · 35.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.52e-5 · 35.5% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 35.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.554e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-135.77×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -56.67400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.025
annualized -56.67
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -55.49σ ann 41% · Sortino -32.59 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6659%-5318%-3976%-2634%-1293%49%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)40.9%Ann. vol σ-5549.4%Sharpe (ann)-3258.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.7742.8372.8992.9613.0233.086t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:48:41 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:48:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
532a19d6ceef15bd1547a6ec8b72202d4c2c0f5c1a2f4b6d5812bf6ffb6fd6fe · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.28K
bid $673 · ask $1.61K
Depth within 50bp
$16.04K
bid $7.15K · ask $8.90K
Mid price
2.900800
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.189
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.094
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-banana/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.90307.60bp2.90322FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.908526.50bp2.916914FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.913343.19bp2.926420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.89877.20bp2.89772FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.890435.78bp2.877318FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.886150.57bp2.865720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-banana/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$17.22K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-banana/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.733 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.26K
real volume
Sell weight
$14.63K
real volume
Net delta
$12.37K
sellers net
Imbalance
-73.26%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
73.3%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-banana/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.90% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h2.9564→2.90021.901%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h2.9837→2.96340.680%2
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms2.9714→2.95210.650%1

/api/asset/hl-banana/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.87%
σ per bar = 0.000178
Mean return (annualised)
-2268.31%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-55.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.60%
peak 2.97 → trough 2.89 over 4894 bars

/api/asset/hl-banana/risk · same metrics, JSON