HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BABY

BABY-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-baby · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 8.16%
realized vol (ann.)
194.38%
max drawdown
3.45%
sharpe
10.27
ulcer index
1.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1026.51
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
599.23
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
2.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
8.16%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +8.16%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-baby/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.015
24h Δ · live
8.16%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
BABY · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0147 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0140, 0.0153] · R²=0.832▲ RISING +7.62%σ NORMAL 2.85%LAST 0.01520.01530.01490.01460.01430.0140μ = 0.0147max 0.0153min 0.0140dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=21,249,607 · μ=849984.3 · σ=951864.6 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1901,157,6882,315,3763,473,0644,630,752μ = 8499844,630,75250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4630752 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.1s
$mark $
$0.0152
$mid $
$0.0152
◉prev-day close
$0.0141
Δ24h Δ %
+8.156%
$24h vol $
$315.48k
◐open interest $
$275.99k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0147 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0140, 0.0153] · R²=0.832▲ RISING +7.62%σ NORMAL 2.85%LAST 0.01520.01530.01490.01460.01430.0140μ = 0.0147max 0.0153min 0.0140dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0152 · 24h 8.16% · range $[0.0140, 0.0153]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [0.0139, 0.0156] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=41%STRONG BULLISH +8.45%CLOSE 0.0152 vs OPEN 0.0140 (+8.45%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01520.01560.01520.01480.01430.0139μ close = 0.0147O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.77%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.77%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.17%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.17%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.89%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.89%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.37%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.37%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.05%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.05%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.06%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.06%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.32%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.32%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.28%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.28%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.71%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.71%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.93%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.93%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+1.14%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+1.14%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.73%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.73%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.69%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.69%)3.2%O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+3.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+3.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.51%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.51%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.74%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.74%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.55%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.55%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+2.85%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+2.85%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.07%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.07%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.54%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.54%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.50%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.50%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.76%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.76%)O0.015 H0.016 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.34%)O0.015 H0.016 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.34%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.08%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.08%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.99%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.99%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=21,249,607 · μ=849984.3 · σ=951864.6 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1901,157,6882,315,3763,473,0644,630,752μ = 849984120,870 · 2.6% peak120,870 · 2.6% peak241,926 · 5.2% peak241,926 · 5.2% peak614,154 · 13.3% peak614,154 · 13.3% peak349,053 · 7.5% peak349,053 · 7.5% peak243,047 · 5.2% peak243,047 · 5.2% peak383,495 · 8.3% peak383,495 · 8.3% peak462,020 · 10.0% peak462,020 · 10.0% peak360,939 · 7.8% peak360,939 · 7.8% peak332,574 · 7.2% peak332,574 · 7.2% peak439,130 · 9.5% peak439,130 · 9.5% peak802,125 · 17.3% peak802,125 · 17.3% peak330,459 · 7.1% peak330,459 · 7.1% peak818,294 · 17.7% peak818,294 · 17.7% peak321,486 · 6.9% peak321,486 · 6.9% peak987,701 · 21.3% peak987,701 · 21.3% peak499,845 · 10.8% peak499,845 · 10.8% peak673,510 · 14.5% peak673,510 · 14.5% peak2,124,959 · 45.9% peak2,124,959 · 45.9% peak1,326,282 · 28.6% peak1,326,282 · 28.6% peak415,940 · 9.0% peak415,940 · 9.0% peak1,473,269 · 31.8% peak1,473,269 · 31.8% peak1,741,565 · 37.6% peak1,741,565 · 37.6% peak4,630,7524,630,752 · 100.0% peak4,630,752 · 100.0% peak1,438,055 · 31.1% peak1,438,055 · 31.1% peak118,157 · 2.6% peak118,157 · 2.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 21249607 · peak 4630752 · CV 1.12

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0031 · σ=0.0106 · skew=0.55 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.06 (mesokurtic)54310 1-156.10bpbin -156.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -156.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-117.72bpbin -117.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -117.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-79.35bpbin -79.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -79.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-40.97bpbin -40.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -40.97bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-2.59bpbin -2.59bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -2.59bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 535.79bpbin 35.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 35.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 274.16bpbin 74.16bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 74.16bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2112.54bpbin 112.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 112.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2150.92bpbin 150.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 150.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak189.30bp227.67bp 2266.05bpbin 266.05bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 266.05bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.58 · kurt=0.12 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0152
Mid price
$0.0152
24h change
+8.16%
Mark–mid spread
0.66 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0141

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.51)
μ MEAN0.0147$95% CI: [0.0146$, 0.0149$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.85%
med MEDIAN0.0148$Q₁ 0.0143$ · Q₃ 0.0151$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0013$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0006$)
min 0.0140$Q₁ 0.0143$med 0.0148$Q₃ 0.0151$max 0.0153$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.304approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.505platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.01
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=25.18
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.305833%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.269
σᵣ STD / h1.136886%σ²ᵣ = 1.293×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.72×
σ ANNUALISED106.41%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.137%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)25.18excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)32.38strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.62right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.45mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.29
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2679.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.24%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.242%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.656%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.541%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.65%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.242%VaR₉₉−1.656%ES₉₅−1.541%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK1.52$
−2.65% drawdown over 3h
1.48$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.73% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
66.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.753 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0155
Bollinger MA
$0.0149
Bollinger lower
$0.0142

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.327within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.026lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.950strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+10.656significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.950
H = 0.950STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.327k=2-0.026k=3-0.179k=4+0.190k=5+0.1100+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$315.48k
Open interest (USD)
$275.99k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.14x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.85% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.87%BULLISH SESSION +7.34%BEST+2.85%01hWORST-1.75%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.87%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.34%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.38% · Σ +3.01%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.41% · Σ +3.31%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.34%+7.71%-0.92%-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h-0.75% · 14h-0.75% · 14h-0.75%14h1.60% · 15h1.60% · 15h1.60%15h0.15% · 16h0.15% · 16h0.15%16h0.08% · 17h0.08% · 17h0.08%17h-0.29% · 18h-0.29% · 18h-0.29%18h1.52% · 19h1.52% · 19h1.52%19h0.24% · 20h0.24% · 20h0.24%20h1.08% · 21h1.08% · 21h1.08%21h1.20% · 22h1.20% · 22h1.20%22h-0.66% · 23h-0.66% · 23h-0.66%23h0.60% · 00h0.60% · 00h0.60%00h2.85% · 01h2.85% · 01h2.85%01h★ BEST-1.33% · 02h-1.33% · 02h-1.33%02h0.39% · 03h0.39% · 03h0.39%03h-1.75% · 04h-1.75% · 04h-1.75%04h▼ WORST2.78% · 05h2.78% · 05h2.78%05h0.18% · 06h0.18% · 06h0.18%06h-0.71% · 07h-0.71% · 07h-0.71%07h-0.48% · 08h-0.48% · 08h-0.48%08h-0.60% · 09h-0.60% · 09h-0.60%09h0.27% · 10h0.27% · 10h0.27%10h0.22% · 11h0.22% · 11h0.22%11h0.93% · 12h0.93% · 12h0.93%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.31%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 2.85% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.867%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.45%FINAL+7.45%MAX DD-2.68%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.85%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0745 · peak 1.0785 · range [0.9908, 1.0785]1.07850.9908break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0785UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.68% · moderate0%-2.68%▼ TROUGH -2.68%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.68%bar 15-17 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -1.77%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.92%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.68%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.0745 (7.45%) · max DD -2.68% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=29.03 · σ=33.68PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -8.95 (-1.13σ vs μ)82.3341.170.00-41.17-82.33μ = 29.0311.9711.9737.3837.3863.8963.8962.9062.9082.3382.3354.5754.5778.5078.5070.5770.5739.4539.4532.5632.561.011.0128.2628.2624.7624.76-4.30-4.304.144.14-5.93-5.9317.1017.10-38.57-38.57-8.95-8.95v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.947 · range [-38.57, 82.33] · μ 29.034 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=110.6102 · σ=43.7055 · range [42.4847, 183.6387] · R²=0.105▼ FALLING -19.91%σ EXTREME 39.51%LAST 59.9934183.6387148.3502113.061777.773242.4847μ = 110.6102max 183.6387min 42.4847dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 59.99% · range [42.48%, 183.64%] · μ 110.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.271 · σ=0.229MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.334 (+2.65σ vs μ)0.5030.2520.000-0.252-0.503μ = -0.271-0.300-0.300-0.462-0.462-0.296-0.296-0.324-0.324-0.224-0.224-0.427-0.427-0.304-0.304-0.097-0.097-0.442-0.442-0.446-0.446-0.267-0.267-0.449-0.449-0.503-0.503-0.424-0.424-0.419-0.419-0.314-0.3140.1350.1350.0750.0750.3340.334v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.334 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7422
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4185
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3880
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1792
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8445
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1464
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.558 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.39e-4 · top T=2.00h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 61.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.7e-42.8e-41.8e-49.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.01e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.01e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.91e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.91e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.46e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.46e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.20e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.20e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.60e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.60e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.27e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.27e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.49e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.49e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.41e-4 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.41e-4 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.35e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 22.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.671e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 3.40× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.36× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.40×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.36×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.70×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.85×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.84× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 4.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.84× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 4.81
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.12%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 896% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 5.49σ ann 163% · Sortino 4.98 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%896.1%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)163.3%Ann. vol σ548.9%Sharpe (ann)498.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0140.0150.0150.0150.0160.016t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:22 UTC
Snapshot age
6.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f1fe9a345c02fa9645723329a754a2fe145123266f49f26e1bbce1d01cfbbf82 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,454HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.07

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.16K
bid $428 · ask $734
Depth within 50bp
$12.40K
bid $5.61K · ask $6.79K
Mid price
0.015210
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
19.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.135
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.095
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-baby/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0152249.71bp0.0152252FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01527140.27bp0.01534515FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01531368.33bp0.01542720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01519410.09bp0.0151933FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01514741.32bp0.01510118FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01513847.28bp0.01505520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-baby/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$21.25M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-baby/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.343 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.19M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.94M
real volume
Net delta
$7.25M
buyers net
Imbalance
34.30%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
34.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-baby/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.65% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.015220→0.0148162.654%3
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z3.0h0.015260→0.0149901.769%4
#32026-06-13 14:00:00Z0ms0.014128→0.0139980.920%1

/api/asset/hl-baby/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
163.25%
σ per bar = 0.000712
Mean return (annualised)
896.14%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.64%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 773 bars

/api/asset/hl-baby/risk · same metrics, JSON