HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AZTEC

AZTEC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aztec · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.14%
realized vol (ann.)
61.95%
max drawdown
1.54%
sharpe
-20.14
ulcer index
0.77%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1628.29
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-900.33
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.14%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.14%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aztec/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.016
24h Δ · live
-3.14%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
AZTEC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0165 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0162, 0.0171] · R²=0.758▼ FALLING -3.03%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.01620.01710.01680.01660.01640.0162μ = 0.0165max 0.0171min 0.0162dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,996,517 · μ=319860.7 · σ=443032.3 · CV=1.39BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=70417,878835,7561,253,6341,671,512μ = 3198611,671,51250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1671512 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.0162
$mid $
$0.0162
◉prev-day close
$0.0167
Δ24h Δ %
-3.142%
$24h vol $
$127.60k
◐open interest $
$1.20M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0165 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0162, 0.0171] · R²=0.758▼ FALLING -3.03%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.01620.01710.01680.01660.01640.0162μ = 0.0165max 0.0171min 0.0162dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0162 · 24h -3.14% · range $[0.0162, 0.0171]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0161, 0.0173] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=44%BEARISH -2.64%CLOSE 0.0162 vs OPEN 0.0166 (-2.64%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01620.01730.01700.01670.01640.0161μ close = 0.0165O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.41%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.41%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)2.2%O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+2.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+2.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.01%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.01%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.80%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.80%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.46%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.46%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.02%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.02%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.25%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.48%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.48%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.96%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.96%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.23%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.59%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.59%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.57%)O0.016 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.57%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.29%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.29%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.16%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.16%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.25%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.25%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.27%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.27%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.11%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.49%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.49%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.06%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,996,517 · μ=319860.7 · σ=443032.3 · CV=1.39BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=70417,878835,7561,253,6341,671,512μ = 3198611,057,311 · 63.3% peak1,057,311 · 63.3% peak205,558 · 12.3% peak205,558 · 12.3% peak155,812 · 9.3% peak155,812 · 9.3% peak1,671,5121,671,512 · 100.0% peak1,671,512 · 100.0% peak791,277 · 47.3% peak791,277 · 47.3% peak48,039 · 2.9% peak48,039 · 2.9% peak278,133 · 16.6% peak278,133 · 16.6% peak96,828 · 5.8% peak96,828 · 5.8% peak196,195 · 11.7% peak196,195 · 11.7% peak65,021 · 3.9% peak65,021 · 3.9% peak117,063 · 7.0% peak117,063 · 7.0% peak79,912 · 4.8% peak79,912 · 4.8% peak52,105 · 3.1% peak52,105 · 3.1% peak219,447 · 13.1% peak219,447 · 13.1% peak198,798 · 11.9% peak198,798 · 11.9% peak46,283 · 2.8% peak46,283 · 2.8% peak1,294,024 · 77.4% peak1,294,024 · 77.4% peak832,243 · 49.8% peak832,243 · 49.8% peak95,590 · 5.7% peak95,590 · 5.7% peak91,102 · 5.5% peak91,102 · 5.5% peak74,344 · 4.4% peak74,344 · 4.4% peak100,421 · 6.0% peak100,421 · 6.0% peak103,745 · 6.2% peak103,745 · 6.2% peak44,247 · 2.6% peak44,247 · 2.6% peak81,507 · 4.9% peak81,507 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7996517 · peak 1671512 · CV 1.39

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0078 · skew=1.01 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.62 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 3-129.74bpbin -129.74bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -129.74bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-97.75bp 4-65.76bpbin -65.76bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -65.76bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 5-33.77bpbin -33.77bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -33.77bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-1.78bpbin -1.78bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -1.78bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 330.21bpbin 30.21bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 30.21bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak62.19bp 194.18bpbin 94.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 94.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1126.17bpbin 126.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 126.17bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak158.16bp190.15bp 1222.13bpbin 222.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 222.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.99 · kurt=1.63 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0162
Mid price
$0.0162
24h change
-3.14%
Mark–mid spread
2.47 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0167

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.19)
μ MEAN0.0165$95% CI: [0.0164$, 0.0166$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.58%
med MEDIAN0.0165$Q₁ 0.0163$ · Q₃ 0.0167$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0162$Q₁ 0.0163$med 0.0165$Q₃ 0.0167$max 0.0171$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.391approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.188platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.42
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.21
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.128285%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.152
σᵣ STD / h0.845221%σ²ᵣ = 0.714×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.59×
σ ANNUALISED79.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.845%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.21negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-16.15downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.06right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.33leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.14
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1123.78%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.39%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.392%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.453%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.447%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.25%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.392%VaR₉₉−1.453%ES₉₅−1.447%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK1.71$
−5.25% drawdown over 19h
1.62$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.54% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.184 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0169
Bollinger MA
$0.0165
Bollinger lower
$0.0160

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.309within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.135lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.842strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.478significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.842
H = 0.842STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.309k=2+0.135k=3-0.408k=4+0.142k=5+0.0350+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$127.60k
Open interest (USD)
$1.20M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.11x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.38% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.62%BEARISH SESSION -3.08%BEST+2.38%14hWORST-1.46%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.62%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.08%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.22%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.08%+2.27%-3.12%-0.79% · 13h-0.79% · 13h-0.79%13h2.38% · 14h2.38% · 14h2.38%14h★ BEST-0.49% · 15h-0.49% · 15h-0.49%15h1.18% · 16h1.18% · 16h1.18%16h-1.46% · 17h-1.46% · 17h-1.46%17h▼ WORST-0.61% · 18h-0.61% · 18h-0.61%18h-0.07% · 19h-0.07% · 19h-0.07%19h1.02% · 20h1.02% · 20h1.02%20h-0.34% · 21h-0.34% · 21h-0.34%21h-1.44% · 22h-1.44% · 22h-1.44%22h-0.37% · 23h-0.37% · 23h-0.37%23h-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h0.14% · 01h0.14% · 01h0.14%01h-0.03% · 02h-0.03% · 02h-0.03%02h0.33% · 03h0.33% · 03h0.33%03h-1.14% · 04h-1.14% · 04h-1.14%04h0.31% · 05h0.31% · 05h0.31%05h-0.22% · 06h-0.22% · 06h-0.22%06h0.11% · 07h0.11% · 07h0.11%07h-0.50% · 08h-0.50% · 08h-0.50%08h0.44% · 09h0.44% · 09h0.44%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.68% · 11h-0.68% · 11h-0.68%11h0.04% · 12h0.04% · 12h0.04%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.22%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 2.38% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.624%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.11%)FINAL-3.11%MAX DD-5.29%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.26%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9689 · peak 1.0226 · range [0.9685, 1.0226]1.02260.9685break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0226UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.29% · significant0%-5.29%▼ TROUGH -5.29%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -5.29%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.79%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.49%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.29%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9689 (-3.11%) · max DD -5.29% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-27.27 · σ=21.48UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -29.00 (-0.08σ vs μ)76.3438.170.00-38.17-76.34μ = -27.272.262.2610.4610.46-6.54-6.54-4.33-4.33-48.49-48.49-35.21-35.21-36.89-36.89-32.11-32.11-76.34-76.34-49.71-49.71-49.86-49.86-28.50-28.50-17.33-17.33-18.25-18.25-30.45-30.45-26.72-26.72-1.63-1.63-39.48-39.48-29.00-29.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.002 · range [-76.34, 10.46] · μ -27.269 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.0507 · σ=28.7787 · range [33.0004, 135.0914] · R²=0.829▼ FALLING -71.56%σ EXTREME 41.68%LAST 38.4266135.0914109.568784.045958.523133.0004μ = 69.0507max 135.0914min 33.0004dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.43% · range [33.00%, 135.09%] · μ 69.05% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.289 · σ=0.287MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.460 (-0.60σ vs μ)0.7070.3540.000-0.354-0.707μ = -0.289-0.435-0.435-0.243-0.243-0.294-0.294-0.251-0.2510.1770.1770.0940.0940.1230.123-0.017-0.017-0.077-0.0770.1040.104-0.258-0.258-0.549-0.549-0.579-0.579-0.614-0.614-0.674-0.674-0.459-0.459-0.707-0.707-0.374-0.374-0.460-0.460v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.460 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.9032
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0071
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.7078
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0129
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7471
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.5680
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0102
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8050
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0069
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1406
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2540
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.653 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.97e-5 · top T=2.18h (40.1%) · top-3 cover 72.0%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.2cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-42.5e-41.7e-48.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.35e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.35e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.62e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.62e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.20e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.20e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.30e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.30e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.79e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.79e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.35e-4 · 40.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.35e-4 · 40.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.98e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.98e-5 · 3.6% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=6.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 40.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.365e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-50.76×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -35.72400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -35.72
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -33.61σ ann 66% · Sortino -23.29 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4033%-3210%-2388%-1565%-743%79%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)66.2%Ann. vol σ-3360.6%Sharpe (ann)-2329.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0150.0160.0160.0170.0170.017t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ddbcdfc71e7f907f3ab8f3401a72848329dd2014e1e274a75ee57f7a7079856e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$555
bid $550 · ask $5
Depth within 10bp
$4.09K
bid $3.09K · ask $998
Depth within 50bp
$29.49K
bid $13.13K · ask $16.36K
Mid price
0.016181
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.346
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.063
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aztec/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0161969.35bp0.0162054FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01621319.87bp0.0162189FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01632287.64bp0.01642020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0161753.29bp0.0161713FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01615614.91bp0.01613510FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01610646.14bp0.01596320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-aztec/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$8.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aztec/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.275 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.51M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.42M
real volume
Net delta
$1.91M
sellers net
Imbalance
-27.53%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
27.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aztec/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.83% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.016884→0.0164072.825%5
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.017073→0.0167122.114%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.016480→0.0162931.135%3

/api/asset/hl-aztec/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
66.20%
σ per bar = 0.000289
Mean return (annualised)
-2224.92%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-33.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.51%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 4913 bars

/api/asset/hl-aztec/risk · same metrics, JSON