HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AXS

AXS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-axs · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.82%
realized vol (ann.)
40.63%
max drawdown
1.02%
sharpe
-30.31
ulcer index
0.57%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2161.49
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.96%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1278.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.82%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.82%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-axs/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.952
24h Δ · live
-1.82%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
AXS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.9650 · σ=0.0074 · range [0.9507, 0.9751] · R²=0.573▼ FALLING -1.62%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.95170.97510.96900.96290.95680.9507μ = 0.9650max 0.9751min 0.9507dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.95
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=105,506 · μ=4220.2 · σ=2331.5 · CV=0.55STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1303,3906,78010,17113,561μ = 422013,560.850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 13561 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$0.9518
$mid $
$0.9515
◉prev-day close
$0.9694
Δ24h Δ %
-1.819%
$24h vol $
$100.29k
◐open interest $
$319.47k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.9650 · σ=0.0074 · range [0.9507, 0.9751] · R²=0.573▼ FALLING -1.62%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.95170.97510.96900.96290.95680.9507μ = 0.9650max 0.9751min 0.9507dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.9517 · 24h -1.82% · range $[0.9507, 0.9751]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.9486, 0.9800] · σ=0.0074 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -1.83%CLOSE 0.9517 vs OPEN 0.9695 (-1.83%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.95170.98000.97210.96430.95640.9486μ close = 0.9650O0.969 H0.972 L0.967 C0.967 (-0.21%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.967 C0.967 (-0.21%)O0.967 H0.973 L0.966 C0.967 (-0.00%)O0.967 H0.973 L0.966 C0.967 (-0.00%)O0.967 H0.971 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.18%)O0.967 H0.971 L0.965 C0.969 (+0.18%)O0.970 H0.975 L0.968 C0.973 (+0.32%)O0.970 H0.975 L0.968 C0.973 (+0.32%)O0.973 H0.974 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.34%)O0.973 H0.974 L0.964 C0.969 (-0.34%)O0.970 H0.975 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.04%)O0.970 H0.975 L0.966 C0.969 (-0.04%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.965 (-0.40%)O0.969 H0.972 L0.965 C0.965 (-0.40%)O0.966 H0.973 L0.964 C0.971 (+0.50%)O0.966 H0.973 L0.964 C0.971 (+0.50%)O0.971 H0.973 L0.967 C0.969 (-0.26%)O0.971 H0.973 L0.967 C0.969 (-0.26%)O0.968 H0.980 L0.967 C0.975 (+0.71%)O0.968 H0.980 L0.967 C0.975 (+0.71%)O0.975 H0.975 L0.969 C0.969 (-0.60%)O0.975 H0.975 L0.969 C0.969 (-0.60%)O0.969 H0.975 L0.969 C0.973 (+0.40%)O0.969 H0.975 L0.969 C0.973 (+0.40%)O0.973 H0.973 L0.967 C0.968 (-0.55%)O0.973 H0.973 L0.967 C0.968 (-0.55%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.967 C0.973 (+0.43%)O0.969 H0.973 L0.967 C0.973 (+0.43%)-0.7%O0.973 H0.974 L0.965 C0.965 (-0.74%)O0.973 H0.974 L0.965 C0.965 (-0.74%)O0.967 H0.970 L0.965 C0.970 (+0.35%)O0.967 H0.970 L0.965 C0.970 (+0.35%)O0.970 H0.970 L0.962 C0.964 (-0.60%)O0.970 H0.970 L0.962 C0.964 (-0.60%)O0.964 H0.965 L0.959 C0.965 (+0.13%)O0.964 H0.965 L0.959 C0.965 (+0.13%)O0.965 H0.967 L0.958 C0.960 (-0.54%)O0.965 H0.967 L0.958 C0.960 (-0.54%)O0.958 H0.960 L0.952 C0.953 (-0.56%)O0.958 H0.960 L0.952 C0.953 (-0.56%)O0.954 H0.960 L0.952 C0.957 (+0.29%)O0.954 H0.960 L0.952 C0.957 (+0.29%)O0.956 H0.959 L0.952 C0.958 (+0.18%)O0.956 H0.959 L0.952 C0.958 (+0.18%)O0.958 H0.958 L0.952 C0.952 (-0.62%)O0.958 H0.958 L0.952 C0.952 (-0.62%)O0.952 H0.954 L0.949 C0.951 (-0.12%)O0.952 H0.954 L0.949 C0.951 (-0.12%)O0.952 H0.952 L0.949 C0.952 (+0.01%)O0.952 H0.952 L0.949 C0.952 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=105,506 · μ=4220.2 · σ=2331.5 · CV=0.55STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1303,3906,78010,17113,561μ = 42203,974.8 · 29.3% peak3,974.8 · 29.3% peak3,140.2 · 23.2% peak3,140.2 · 23.2% peak2,204.1 · 16.3% peak2,204.1 · 16.3% peak7,557.2 · 55.7% peak7,557.2 · 55.7% peak3,946 · 29.1% peak3,946 · 29.1% peak3,363 · 24.8% peak3,363 · 24.8% peak3,068 · 22.6% peak3,068 · 22.6% peak5,585 · 41.2% peak5,585 · 41.2% peak2,870.9 · 21.2% peak2,870.9 · 21.2% peak3,891.6 · 28.7% peak3,891.6 · 28.7% peak3,370.2 · 24.9% peak3,370.2 · 24.9% peak4,386 · 32.3% peak4,386 · 32.3% peak13,560.813,560.8 · 100.0% peak13,560.8 · 100.0% peak3,558.4 · 26.2% peak3,558.4 · 26.2% peak2,658.3 · 19.6% peak2,658.3 · 19.6% peak3,447.4 · 25.4% peak3,447.4 · 25.4% peak4,467.9 · 32.9% peak4,467.9 · 32.9% peak4,289.4 · 31.6% peak4,289.4 · 31.6% peak4,789.2 · 35.3% peak4,789.2 · 35.3% peak5,754.5 · 42.4% peak5,754.5 · 42.4% peak3,428.5 · 25.3% peak3,428.5 · 25.3% peak3,353.5 · 24.7% peak3,353.5 · 24.7% peak2,827.3 · 20.8% peak2,827.3 · 20.8% peak4,959 · 36.6% peak4,959 · 36.6% peak1,054.5 · 7.8% peak1,054.5 · 7.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 105506 · peak 13561 · CV 0.55

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0044 · skew=-0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.43 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 2-73.85bpbin -73.85bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -73.85bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-61.63bpbin -61.63bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -61.63bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-49.41bpbin -49.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -49.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-37.19bpbin -37.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -37.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-24.97bpbin -24.97bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -24.97bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-12.75bpbin -12.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -12.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-0.53bpbin -0.53bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -0.53bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 311.69bpbin 11.69bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 11.69bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 123.91bpbin 23.91bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 23.91bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 236.13bpbin 36.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 36.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 448.34bpbin 48.34bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 48.34bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 160.56bpbin 60.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 60.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.03 · kurt=-1.36 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.9518
Mid price
$0.9515
24h change
-1.82%
Mark–mid spread
2.31 bps
Prev-day close
$0.9694

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.70)
μ MEAN0.9650$95% CI: [0.9621$, 0.9679$]
σ STD DEV0.0074$σ² = 0.549×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.77%
med MEDIAN0.9674$Q₁ 0.9596$ · Q₃ 0.9694$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0245$ · IQR 0.0097$ (1.349σ→0.0100$)
min 0.9507$Q₁ 0.9596$med 0.9674$Q₃ 0.9694$max 0.9751$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.701left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.869mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.03
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.61
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.068129%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.145
σᵣ STD / h0.468566%σ²ᵣ = 0.220×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.88×
σ ANNUALISED43.86%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.469%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.61negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.19downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.03approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.40platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.90
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-596.81%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.717%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.784%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.766%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.51%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.717%VaR₉₉−0.784%ES₉₅−0.766%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK97.51$
−2.51% drawdown over 14h
95.07$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.57% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.115 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.9798
Bollinger MA
$0.9640
Bollinger lower
$0.9481

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.58 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.584negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.432lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.689persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.559significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.689
H = 0.689PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..54 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · multi-lag dependence
k=1 ★-0.584k=2+0.432k=3-0.448k=4+0.483k=5-0.3320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.58 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$100.29k
Open interest (USD)
$319.47k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.31x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.67% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.40%MILD BEARISH -1.64%BEST+0.67%21hWORST-0.80%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.64%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.64%+0.79%-1.75%-0.06% · 13h-0.06% · 13h-0.06%13h0.19% · 14h0.19% · 14h0.19%14h0.41% · 15h0.41% · 15h0.41%15h-0.34% · 16h-0.34% · 16h-0.34%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.41% · 18h-0.41% · 18h-0.41%18h0.54% · 19h0.54% · 19h0.54%19h-0.21% · 20h-0.21% · 20h-0.21%20h0.67% · 21h0.67% · 21h0.67%21h★ BEST-0.60% · 22h-0.60% · 22h-0.60%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h-0.53% · 00h-0.53% · 00h-0.53%00h0.53% · 01h0.53% · 01h0.53%01h-0.80% · 02h-0.80% · 02h-0.80%02h▼ WORST0.51% · 03h0.51% · 03h0.51%03h-0.63% · 04h-0.63% · 04h-0.63%04h0.11% · 05h0.11% · 05h0.11%05h-0.59% · 06h-0.59% · 06h-0.59%06h-0.73% · 07h-0.73% · 07h-0.73%07h0.44% · 08h0.44% · 08h0.44%08h0.08% · 09h0.08% · 09h0.08%09h-0.61% · 10h-0.61% · 10h-0.61%10h-0.12% · 11h-0.12% · 11h-0.12%11h0.11% · 12h0.11% · 12h0.11%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 0.67% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.402%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.65%)FINAL-1.65%MAX DD-2.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.79%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9835 · peak 1.0079 · range [0.9824, 1.0079]1.00790.9824break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0079UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.53% · moderate0%-2.53%▼ TROUGH -2.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.53%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.75%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.06%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9835 (-1.65%) · max DD -2.53% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-15.12 · σ=22.34UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.48 (-0.60σ vs μ)61.7930.890.00-30.89-61.79μ = -15.12-10.35-10.3515.8315.83-0.41-0.418.478.47-0.28-0.2811.3511.357.327.326.976.97-8.04-8.04-12.27-12.27-12.94-12.94-21.25-21.25-22.43-22.43-61.79-61.79-24.25-24.25-41.94-41.94-41.50-41.50-51.29-51.29-28.48-28.48v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.479 · range [-61.79, 15.83] · μ -15.120 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=48.4770 · σ=8.5454 · range [29.0508, 61.4112] · R²=0.118▲ RISING +45.69%σ EXTREME 17.63%LAST 42.323561.411253.321145.231037.140929.0508μ = 48.4770max 61.4112min 29.0508dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.32% · range [29.05%, 61.41%] · μ 48.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.542 · σ=0.273MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.318 (+0.82σ vs μ)0.8940.4470.000-0.447-0.894μ = -0.542-0.133-0.133-0.349-0.349-0.603-0.603-0.450-0.450-0.669-0.669-0.794-0.794-0.712-0.712-0.816-0.816-0.733-0.733-0.826-0.826-0.851-0.851-0.894-0.894-0.788-0.788-0.539-0.539-0.399-0.399-0.175-0.175-0.161-0.161-0.098-0.098-0.318-0.318v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.318 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9640
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3746
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
31.4391
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9672
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7640
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.3616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0182
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6672
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0165
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4856
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1374
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.548 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.80e-5 · top T=2.00h (49.6%) · top-3 cover 75.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-41.2e-48.3e-54.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.44e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.44e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.86e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.86e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.50e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.50e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.16e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.16e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.64e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.64e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.80e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.80e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 49.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-4 · 49.6% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 49.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.357e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-99.05×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -43.84400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.019
annualized -43.84
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -43.39σ ann 44% · Sortino -34.06 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5207%-4155%-3103%-2051%-999%53%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)43.8%Ann. vol σ-4339.4%Sharpe (ann)-3405.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.9120.9310.9510.9700.9901.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
08495ed66c5ea3e9d145473ccd60c2ec94539339b4deda0b151eb5a9fa61a3a6 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.69K
bid $1.44K · ask $250
Depth within 10bp
$4.77K
bid $2.94K · ask $1.83K
Depth within 50bp
$31.44K
bid $18.58K · ask $12.86K
Mid price
0.951535
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.186
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.215
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-axs/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.9520635.55bp0.9521403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.95341219.73bp0.95481017FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.95391124.97bp0.95614020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.9512632.86bp0.9512102FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.94998816.26bp0.94879012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.94893527.32bp0.94610020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-axs/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$105.51K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-axs/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.158 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$42.76K
real volume
Sell weight
$58.78K
real volume
Net delta
$16.02K
sellers net
Imbalance
-15.78%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-axs/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.973140→0.9526402.107%5
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z0ms0.973180→0.9653900.800%1
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms0.972710→0.9654500.746%1

/api/asset/hl-axs/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
43.81%
σ per bar = 0.000191
Mean return (annualised)
-1901.17%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-43.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.18%
peak 0.97 → trough 0.95 over 4887 bars

/api/asset/hl-axs/risk · same metrics, JSON