HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AVAX

AVAX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-avax · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.41%
realized vol (ann.)
28.23%
max drawdown
0.66%
sharpe
-7.43
ulcer index
0.35%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.29%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-599.01
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-338.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.41%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-7.39%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-avax/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH916ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$6.642
24h Δ · live
-0.41%
24h vol · live
$1.5M
AVAX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=6.6876 · σ=0.0315 · range [6.6410, 6.7506] · R²=0.398▼ FALLING -0.57%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 6.64176.75066.72326.69586.66846.6410μ = 6.6876max 6.7506min 6.6410dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $6.64
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.2%Short fee 52.8%SHORT FEE52.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000843% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=226,376 · μ=9055.0 · σ=7453.5 · CV=0.82BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1109,32218,64527,96737,289μ = 905537,28950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 37289 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
916ms
$mark $
$6.6417
$mid $
$6.6416
◉prev-day close
$6.6692
Δ24h Δ %
-0.412%
$24h vol $
$1.51M
◐open interest $
$22.26M
%funding (1h)
-0.000843%
%funding (yr)
-7.39%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=6.6876 · σ=0.0315 · range [6.6410, 6.7506] · R²=0.398▼ FALLING -0.57%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 6.64176.75066.72326.69586.66846.6410μ = 6.6876max 6.7506min 6.6410dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $6.6417 · 24h -0.41% · range $[6.6410, 6.7506]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [6.6200, 6.7703] · σ=0.0315 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -0.42%CLOSE 6.6417 vs OPEN 6.6694 (-0.42%)&#9660; CLOSE 6.64176.77036.73276.69516.65766.6200μ close = 6.6876O6.669 H6.691 L6.661 C6.679 (+0.15%)O6.669 H6.691 L6.661 C6.679 (+0.15%)O6.675 H6.681 L6.660 C6.671 (-0.07%)O6.675 H6.681 L6.660 C6.671 (-0.07%)O6.671 H6.690 L6.668 C6.685 (+0.21%)O6.671 H6.690 L6.668 C6.685 (+0.21%)0.9%O6.687 H6.756 L6.680 C6.751 (+0.95%)O6.687 H6.756 L6.680 C6.751 (+0.95%)O6.753 H6.765 L6.673 C6.709 (-0.65%)O6.753 H6.765 L6.673 C6.709 (-0.65%)O6.712 H6.722 L6.680 C6.691 (-0.31%)O6.712 H6.722 L6.680 C6.691 (-0.31%)O6.691 H6.715 L6.688 C6.701 (+0.14%)O6.691 H6.715 L6.688 C6.701 (+0.14%)O6.701 H6.729 L6.688 C6.710 (+0.13%)O6.701 H6.729 L6.688 C6.710 (+0.13%)O6.709 H6.716 L6.694 C6.714 (+0.07%)O6.709 H6.716 L6.694 C6.714 (+0.07%)O6.715 H6.770 L6.699 C6.745 (+0.44%)O6.715 H6.770 L6.699 C6.745 (+0.44%)O6.748 H6.749 L6.716 C6.716 (-0.47%)O6.748 H6.749 L6.716 C6.716 (-0.47%)O6.716 H6.728 L6.701 C6.712 (-0.06%)O6.716 H6.728 L6.701 C6.712 (-0.06%)O6.714 H6.714 L6.690 C6.697 (-0.24%)O6.714 H6.714 L6.690 C6.697 (-0.24%)O6.698 H6.726 L6.685 C6.704 (+0.08%)O6.698 H6.726 L6.685 C6.704 (+0.08%)O6.702 H6.726 L6.697 C6.706 (+0.05%)O6.702 H6.726 L6.697 C6.706 (+0.05%)O6.707 H6.723 L6.696 C6.715 (+0.12%)O6.707 H6.723 L6.696 C6.715 (+0.12%)O6.718 H6.718 L6.660 C6.670 (-0.70%)O6.718 H6.718 L6.660 C6.670 (-0.70%)O6.670 H6.680 L6.645 C6.673 (+0.05%)O6.670 H6.680 L6.645 C6.673 (+0.05%)O6.673 H6.691 L6.650 C6.651 (-0.32%)O6.673 H6.691 L6.650 C6.651 (-0.32%)O6.653 H6.656 L6.636 C6.650 (-0.05%)O6.653 H6.656 L6.636 C6.650 (-0.05%)O6.652 H6.663 L6.642 C6.647 (-0.08%)O6.652 H6.663 L6.642 C6.647 (-0.08%)O6.644 H6.671 L6.620 C6.666 (+0.34%)O6.644 H6.671 L6.620 C6.666 (+0.34%)O6.668 H6.677 L6.640 C6.641 (-0.40%)O6.668 H6.677 L6.640 C6.641 (-0.40%)O6.641 H6.654 L6.630 C6.643 (+0.04%)O6.641 H6.654 L6.630 C6.643 (+0.04%)O6.642 H6.645 L6.632 C6.642 (-0.00%)O6.642 H6.645 L6.632 C6.642 (-0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=226,376 · μ=9055.0 · σ=7453.5 · CV=0.82BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1109,32218,64527,96737,289μ = 90554,357.58 · 11.7% peak4,357.58 · 11.7% peak4,100.52 · 11.0% peak4,100.52 · 11.0% peak11,030.1 · 29.6% peak11,030.1 · 29.6% peak15,832.31 · 42.5% peak15,832.31 · 42.5% peak37,28937,289 · 100.0% peak37,289 · 100.0% peak6,414.91 · 17.2% peak6,414.91 · 17.2% peak2,999.34 · 8.0% peak2,999.34 · 8.0% peak10,485.94 · 28.1% peak10,485.94 · 28.1% peak6,426.08 · 17.2% peak6,426.08 · 17.2% peak9,854.58 · 26.4% peak9,854.58 · 26.4% peak6,161.74 · 16.5% peak6,161.74 · 16.5% peak8,580.26 · 23.0% peak8,580.26 · 23.0% peak8,653.18 · 23.2% peak8,653.18 · 23.2% peak7,079.22 · 19.0% peak7,079.22 · 19.0% peak5,708.05 · 15.3% peak5,708.05 · 15.3% peak9,759.56 · 26.2% peak9,759.56 · 26.2% peak24,372.72 · 65.4% peak24,372.72 · 65.4% peak9,820.68 · 26.3% peak9,820.68 · 26.3% peak7,911.93 · 21.2% peak7,911.93 · 21.2% peak7,074.22 · 19.0% peak7,074.22 · 19.0% peak6,019.55 · 16.1% peak6,019.55 · 16.1% peak7,146.41 · 19.2% peak7,146.41 · 19.2% peak2,503.14 · 6.7% peak2,503.14 · 6.7% peak4,357.52 · 11.7% peak4,357.52 · 11.7% peak2,437 · 6.5% peak2,437 · 6.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 226376 · peak 37289 · CV 0.82

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0033 · skew=0.57 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.19 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 2-60.36bpbin -60.36bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -60.36bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 1-46.61bpbin -46.61bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -46.61bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 3-32.85bpbin -32.85bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -32.85bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 2-19.10bpbin -19.10bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -19.10bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 4-5.35bpbin -5.35bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -5.35bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 88.41bpbin 8.41bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 8.41bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 222.16bpbin 22.16bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 22.16bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak35.91bp 149.67bpbin 49.67bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 49.67bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak63.42bp77.17bp 190.92bpbin 90.92bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 90.92bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.57 · kurt=1.52 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$6.6417
Mid price
$6.6416
24h change
-0.41%
Mark–mid spread
0.15 bps
Prev-day close
$6.6692

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.02)
μ MEAN6.6876$95% CI: [6.6752$, 6.6999$]
σ STD DEV0.0315$σ² = 9.952×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN6.6914$Q₁ 6.6662$ · Q₃ 6.7100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1096$ · IQR 0.0438$ (1.349σ→0.0426$)
min 6.6410$Q₁ 6.6662$med 6.6914$Q₃ 6.7100$max 6.7506$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.091approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.023platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.47
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.40
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.023647%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.068
σᵣ STD / h0.345960%σ²ᵣ = 0.120×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.63×
σ ANNUALISED32.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.346%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.40negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.48downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.61right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.20leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-207.14%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.587%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.660%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.645%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.62%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.587%VaR₉₉−0.660%ES₉₅−0.645%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK675.06$
−1.62% drawdown over 19h
664.10$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.65% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.159 · within band
Bollinger upper
$6.7479
Bollinger MA
$6.6847
Bollinger lower
$6.6216

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.250within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.105lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.649persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.902significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.649
H = 0.649PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.250k=2-0.105k=3-0.123k=4+0.096k=5-0.1540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.55high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.51M
Open interest (USD)
$22.26M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.07x
1h funding
-0.000843%
Funding (annualised)
-7.39%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.98% · worst -0.67% · typical |Δ| 0.24%MILD BEARISH -0.57%BEST+0.98%15hWORST-0.67%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.24%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.57%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.94%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.57%+1.06%-0.58%-0.13% · 13h-0.13% · 13h-0.13%13h0.21% · 14h0.21% · 14h0.21%14h0.98% · 15h0.98% · 15h0.98%15h★ BEST-0.62% · 16h-0.62% · 16h-0.62%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h0.14% · 18h0.14% · 18h0.14%18h0.14% · 19h0.14% · 19h0.14%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h0.45% · 21h0.45% · 21h0.45%21h-0.42% · 22h-0.42% · 22h-0.42%22h-0.06% · 23h-0.06% · 23h-0.06%23h-0.22% · 00h-0.22% · 00h-0.22%00h0.09% · 01h0.09% · 01h0.09%01h0.03% · 02h0.03% · 02h0.03%02h0.14% · 03h0.14% · 03h0.14%03h-0.67% · 04h-0.67% · 04h-0.67%04h▼ WORST0.04% · 05h0.04% · 05h0.04%05h-0.33% · 06h-0.33% · 06h-0.33%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h-0.05% · 08h-0.05% · 08h-0.05%08h0.29% · 09h0.29% · 09h0.29%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h-0.03% · 12h-0.03% · 12h-0.03%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.94%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.98% · worst -0.67% · typical |Δ| 0.241%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.58%)FINAL-0.58%MAX DD-1.63%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.06%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9942 · peak 1.0106 · range [0.9941, 1.0106]1.01060.9941break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0106UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.63% · moderate0%-1.63%▼ TROUGH -1.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.63%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.13%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.63%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9942 (-0.58%) · max DD -1.63% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-14.44 · σ=20.89UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -10.43 (+0.19σ vs μ)45.6322.810.00-22.81-45.63μ = -14.449.089.0817.0317.0312.7312.73-3.78-3.785.185.1817.0217.02-2.38-2.38-5.06-5.06-6.49-6.49-31.65-31.65-35.34-35.34-29.89-29.89-33.91-33.91-40.66-40.66-45.63-45.63-34.32-34.32-27.79-27.79-28.00-28.00-10.43-10.43v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.430 · range [-45.63, 17.03] · μ -14.437 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=30.9183 · σ=9.3149 · range [20.0077, 50.7386] · R²=0.540▼ FALLING -60.57%σ EXTREME 30.13%LAST 20.007750.738643.055935.373127.690420.0077μ = 30.9183max 50.7386min 20.0077dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 20.01% · range [20.01%, 50.74%] · μ 30.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.318 · σ=0.213MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.611 (-1.37σ vs μ)0.6460.3230.000-0.323-0.646μ = -0.318-0.216-0.216-0.199-0.199-0.290-0.2900.2620.262-0.379-0.379-0.311-0.311-0.262-0.262-0.343-0.343-0.420-0.4200.0300.030-0.229-0.229-0.389-0.389-0.381-0.381-0.530-0.530-0.646-0.646-0.185-0.185-0.462-0.462-0.480-0.480-0.611-0.611v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.611 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.3127
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0426
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5135
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6238
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5459
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5115
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5692
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0261
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1503
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2500
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.650 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.42e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.5%) · top-3 cover 78.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.6e-54.9e-53.3e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.82e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.82e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.79e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.79e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.13e-5 · 18.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.13e-5 · 18.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.71e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.71e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.81e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.81e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.73e-5 · 21.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.73e-5 · 21.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.48e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.48e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 38.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 38.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.705e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-177.71×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -49.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.022
annualized -49.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -47.25σ ann 27% · Sortino -35.82 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5670%-4529%-3389%-2249%-1108%32%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)26.6%Ann. vol σ-4724.8%Sharpe (ann)-3581.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
6.3596.4856.6126.7386.8646.991t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age
916ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0bd7fc82be0cd419c7a135754e7c64b87e9d0529e65c480b02dd35c8b22d27b8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.44K
bid $2.37K · ask $69
Depth within 5bp
$52.97K
bid $37.95K · ask $15.02K
Depth within 10bp
$90.87K
bid $40.70K · ask $50.17K
Depth within 50bp
$90.87K
bid $40.70K · ask $50.17K
Mid price
6.641600
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.104
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.013
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avax/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K6.64281.85bp6.64293FILLED
BUY$10.00K6.64352.87bp6.644010FILLED
BUY$100.00K6.64505.11bp6.646020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K6.64140.30bp6.64141FILLED
SELL$10.00K6.64051.62bp6.64027FILLED
SELL$100.00K6.63953.12bp6.637820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-8.435e-6
-0.00084% / hr
Annualised APR
-7.394%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
49.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
49.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE7.394%49.4d1.35y
SHORTPAY-7.394%49.4d1.35y

/api/asset/hl-avax/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$6.0000–$7.0000★25$226.38K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avax/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.095 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$100.50K
real volume
Sell weight
$121.52K
real volume
Net delta
$21.02K
sellers net
Imbalance
-9.47%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-avax/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 0.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h6.7153→6.65120.955%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h6.7506→6.69140.877%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms6.7445→6.69750.697%1

/api/asset/hl-avax/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
26.59%
σ per bar = 0.000116
Mean return (annualised)
-1256.18%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-47.25
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.53%
peak 6.72 → trough 6.62 over 3207 bars

/api/asset/hl-avax/risk · same metrics, JSON