HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ASTER

ASTER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aster · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.74%
realized vol (ann.)
28.69%
max drawdown
1.38%
sharpe
-69.58
ulcer index
0.81%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.65%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2476.20
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1471.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.74%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.74%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aster/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.627
24h Δ · live
-1.74%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
ASTER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6362 · σ=0.0042 · range [0.6266, 0.6424] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -2.39%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 0.62700.64240.63840.63450.63050.6266μ = 0.6362max 0.6424min 0.6266dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,366,253 · μ=54650.1 · σ=47600.2 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11049,49398,987148,480197,973μ = 54650197,97350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 197973 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.627
$mid $
$0.627
◉prev-day close
$0.6381
Δ24h Δ %
-1.744%
$24h vol $
$842.42k
◐open interest $
$22.04M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6362 · σ=0.0042 · range [0.6266, 0.6424] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -2.39%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 0.62700.64240.63840.63450.63050.6266μ = 0.6362max 0.6424min 0.6266dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6270 · 24h -1.74% · range $[0.6266, 0.6424]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.6260, 0.6440] · σ=0.0042 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.86%CLOSE 0.6270 vs OPEN 0.6389 (-1.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.62700.64400.63950.63500.63050.6260μ close = 0.6362O0.639 H0.644 L0.638 C0.642 (+0.54%)O0.639 H0.644 L0.638 C0.642 (+0.54%)O0.642 H0.642 L0.640 C0.640 (-0.26%)O0.642 H0.642 L0.640 C0.640 (-0.26%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.638 C0.638 (-0.27%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.638 C0.638 (-0.27%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.634 C0.637 (-0.20%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.634 C0.637 (-0.20%)O0.637 H0.638 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.15%)O0.637 H0.638 L0.637 C0.638 (+0.15%)O0.638 H0.641 L0.638 C0.640 (+0.37%)O0.638 H0.641 L0.638 C0.640 (+0.37%)O0.640 H0.642 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.02%)O0.640 H0.642 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.02%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.641 (+0.10%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.641 (+0.10%)O0.641 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.15%)O0.641 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (-0.15%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.641 L0.639 C0.640 (+0.03%)O0.640 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (-0.32%)O0.640 H0.640 L0.637 C0.638 (-0.32%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.637 C0.637 (-0.19%)O0.638 H0.639 L0.637 C0.637 (-0.19%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.636 C0.636 (-0.13%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.636 C0.636 (-0.13%)O0.636 H0.638 L0.636 C0.637 (+0.23%)O0.636 H0.638 L0.636 C0.637 (+0.23%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.633 C0.635 (-0.31%)O0.637 H0.637 L0.633 C0.635 (-0.31%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.635 (+0.03%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.635 (+0.03%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.634 (-0.09%)O0.634 H0.636 L0.634 C0.634 (-0.09%)O0.634 H0.634 L0.631 C0.633 (-0.15%)O0.634 H0.634 L0.631 C0.633 (-0.15%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (+0.00%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (+0.00%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.06%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.06%)O0.632 H0.635 L0.631 C0.633 (+0.14%)O0.632 H0.635 L0.631 C0.633 (+0.14%)O0.633 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.14%)O0.633 H0.633 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.14%)-0.8%O0.631 H0.631 L0.626 C0.627 (-0.76%)O0.631 H0.631 L0.626 C0.627 (-0.76%)O0.627 H0.628 L0.626 C0.627 (+0.08%)O0.627 H0.628 L0.626 C0.627 (+0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,366,253 · μ=54650.1 · σ=47600.2 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11049,49398,987148,480197,973μ = 54650136,092 · 68.7% peak136,092 · 68.7% peak54,165 · 27.4% peak54,165 · 27.4% peak127,032 · 64.2% peak127,032 · 64.2% peak121,889 · 61.6% peak121,889 · 61.6% peak28,964 · 14.6% peak28,964 · 14.6% peak20,036 · 10.1% peak20,036 · 10.1% peak95,689 · 48.3% peak95,689 · 48.3% peak15,709 · 7.9% peak15,709 · 7.9% peak32,629 · 16.5% peak32,629 · 16.5% peak29,394 · 14.8% peak29,394 · 14.8% peak22,274 · 11.3% peak22,274 · 11.3% peak49,099 · 24.8% peak49,099 · 24.8% peak33,791 · 17.1% peak33,791 · 17.1% peak9,677 · 4.9% peak9,677 · 4.9% peak39,661 · 20.0% peak39,661 · 20.0% peak30,659 · 15.5% peak30,659 · 15.5% peak17,686 · 8.9% peak17,686 · 8.9% peak6,448 · 3.3% peak6,448 · 3.3% peak68,301 · 34.5% peak68,301 · 34.5% peak82,094 · 41.5% peak82,094 · 41.5% peak58,623 · 29.6% peak58,623 · 29.6% peak38,542 · 19.5% peak38,542 · 19.5% peak13,674 · 6.9% peak13,674 · 6.9% peak197,973197,973 · 100.0% peak197,973 · 100.0% peak36,152 · 18.3% peak36,152 · 18.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1366253 · peak 197973 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0022 · skew=-0.86 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 1-77.56bpbin -77.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -77.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-67.70bp-57.84bp-47.98bp 2-38.12bpbin -38.12bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -38.12bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-28.26bpbin -28.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -28.26bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-18.40bpbin -18.40bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -18.40bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-8.54bpbin -8.54bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -8.54bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 41.32bpbin 1.32bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 1.32bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 411.18bpbin 11.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 11.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 121.04bpbin 21.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 21.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 130.90bpbin 30.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 30.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 7 · negative 17
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.84 · kurt=1.92 · near 21 / mid 2 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.627
Mid price
$0.627
24h change
-1.74%
Mark–mid spread
0.08 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6381

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.65)
μ MEAN0.6362$95% CI: [0.6345$, 0.6378$]
σ STD DEV0.0042$σ² = 0.179×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.67%
med MEDIAN0.6372$Q₁ 0.6327$ · Q₃ 0.6399$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0158$ · IQR 0.0072$ (1.349σ→0.0057$)
min 0.6266$Q₁ 0.6327$med 0.6372$Q₃ 0.6399$max 0.6424$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.653left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.478mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.74
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-39.47
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.100842%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.422
σᵣ STD / h0.239140%σ²ᵣ = 0.057×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.37×
σ ANNUALISED22.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.239%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-39.47negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-33.83downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.89left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.68leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-883.37%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.38%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.378%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.724%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.605%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.46%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.378%VaR₉₉−0.724%ES₉₅−0.605%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK64.24$
−2.46% drawdown over 23h
62.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.60× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.92× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
21.3 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.014 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.6440
Bollinger MA
$0.6354
Bollinger lower
$0.6268

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.030within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.093lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.875strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.499significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.875
H = 0.875STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.030k=2-0.093k=3-0.064k=4-0.083k=5+0.0280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.50)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.50)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$842.42k
Open interest (USD)
$22.04M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.04x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.36% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.19%BEARISH SESSION -2.42%BEST+0.36%18hWORST-0.82%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.42%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.42%+0.00%-2.49%-0.31% · 14h-0.31% · 14h-0.31%14h-0.33% · 15h-0.33% · 15h-0.33%15h-0.16% · 16h-0.16% · 16h-0.16%16h0.12% · 17h0.12% · 17h0.12%17h0.36% · 18h0.36% · 18h0.36%18h★ BEST-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h-0.02% · 20h-0.02% · 20h-0.02%20h0.12% · 21h0.12% · 21h0.12%21h-0.12% · 22h-0.12% · 22h-0.12%22h0.03% · 23h0.03% · 23h0.03%23h-0.31% · 00h-0.31% · 00h-0.31%00h-0.19% · 01h-0.19% · 01h-0.19%01h-0.17% · 02h-0.17% · 02h-0.17%02h0.23% · 03h0.23% · 03h0.23%03h-0.39% · 04h-0.39% · 04h-0.39%04h-0.06% · 05h-0.06% · 05h-0.06%05h-0.12% · 06h-0.12% · 06h-0.12%06h-0.19% · 07h-0.19% · 07h-0.19%07h-0.03% · 08h-0.03% · 08h-0.03%08h-0.10% · 09h-0.10% · 09h-0.10%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h-0.82% · 12h-0.82% · 12h-0.82%12h▼ WORST0.07% · 13h0.07% · 13h0.07%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.30%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 6BREADTH29% up · 71% down
7 up bars · 17 down · best 0.36% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.190%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.40%)FINAL-2.40%MAX DD-2.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9760 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9753, 1.0000]1.00000.9753break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.47% · moderate0%-2.47%▼ TROUGH -2.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.47%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9760 (-2.40%) · max DD -2.47% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-35.87 · σ=37.28UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -40.28 (-0.12σ vs μ)105.7552.880.00-52.88-105.75μ = -35.87-21.13-21.13-4.33-4.3334.3134.3139.4739.4731.8531.85-34.05-34.05-48.06-48.06-63.02-63.02-42.52-42.52-53.77-53.77-62.56-62.56-52.68-52.68-52.30-52.30-41.55-41.55-105.75-105.75-50.29-50.29-60.37-60.37-54.59-54.59-40.28-40.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -40.278 · range [-105.75, 39.47] · μ -35.873 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=18.5007 · σ=6.0345 · range [10.3063, 32.5171] · R²=0.022▲ RISING +30.07%σ EXTREME 32.62%LAST 32.517132.517126.964421.411715.859010.3063μ = 18.5007max 32.5171min 10.3063dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.52% · range [10.31%, 32.52%] · μ 18.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.204 · σ=0.280MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.217 (-0.05σ vs μ)0.6250.3130.000-0.313-0.625μ = -0.2040.4640.4640.2460.246-0.135-0.135-0.149-0.149-0.228-0.228-0.300-0.300-0.004-0.004-0.088-0.088-0.132-0.132-0.467-0.467-0.472-0.472-0.603-0.603-0.625-0.625-0.532-0.532-0.239-0.239-0.107-0.107-0.344-0.3440.0590.059-0.217-0.217v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.217 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.3988
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0055
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.6318
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.1016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9457
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5525
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5806
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8448
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6281
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5299
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.809 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.86e-6 · top T=12.00h (15.5%) · top-3 cover 43.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-58.2e-65.4e-62.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 4.48e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.48e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.09e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.09e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.88e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.88e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.95e-6 · 14.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.95e-6 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.68e-6 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.68e-6 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.57e-6 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.57e-6 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.57e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.57e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.00e-6 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.00e-6 · 12.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 15.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.026e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-181.84×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -41.28400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -41.28
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -47.18σ ann 26% · Sortino -26.71 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5662%-4523%-3385%-2246%-1107%31%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)25.9%Ann. vol σ-4718.2%Sharpe (ann)-2671.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6010.6130.6250.6370.6490.661t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dc21a3043f068c5e441be0a63ec15520059faa57d02a3fbd786b3ab2f86d801f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.90K
bid $236 · ask $1.66K
Depth within 5bp
$17.33K
bid $8.91K · ask $8.42K
Depth within 10bp
$73.99K
bid $45.82K · ask $28.17K
Depth within 50bp
$73.99K
bid $45.82K · ask $28.17K
Mid price
0.626965
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.239
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.414
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aster/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6270200.87bp0.6270202FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6271703.27bp0.62729010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6273405.98bp0.62753020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.6268372.03bp0.6267804FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6267273.80bp0.6266309FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.6265616.45bp0.62638020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-aster/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.37M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aster/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.645 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 17
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$218.26K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.01M
real volume
Net delta
$793.64K
sellers net
Imbalance
-64.52%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
64.5%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aster/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 0.97% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z1.0h0.632690→0.6265600.969%2
#22026-06-13 15:00:00Z1.0h0.642370→0.6372100.803%2
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z0ms0.640150→0.6359100.662%1

/api/asset/hl-aster/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
25.95%
σ per bar = 0.000113
Mean return (annualised)
-1224.20%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-47.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.50%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.63 over 4211 bars

/api/asset/hl-aster/risk · same metrics, JSON