HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AR

AR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ar · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.59%
realized vol (ann.)
62.68%
max drawdown
1.39%
sharpe
-25.56
ulcer index
0.82%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.73%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1956.82
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.31%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1227.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.59%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.59%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ar/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.996
24h Δ · live
-1.59%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
AR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.0239 · σ=0.0208 · range [1.9942, 2.0534] · R²=0.682▼ FALLING -1.86%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 1.99502.05342.03862.02382.00901.9942μ = 2.0239max 2.0534min 1.9942dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=219,994 · μ=8799.8 · σ=7909.4 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1006,58413,16819,75126,335μ = 880026,335.3350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 26335 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.6s
$mark $
$1.9955
$mid $
$1.9956
◉prev-day close
$2.0277
Δ24h Δ %
-1.588%
$24h vol $
$438.09k
◐open interest $
$1.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.0239 · σ=0.0208 · range [1.9942, 2.0534] · R²=0.682▼ FALLING -1.86%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 1.99502.05342.03862.02382.00901.9942μ = 2.0239max 2.0534min 1.9942dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.9955 · 24h -1.59% · range $[1.9942, 2.0534]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [1.9840, 2.0761] · σ=0.0208 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=36%BEARISH -1.22%CLOSE 1.9950 vs OPEN 2.0197 (-1.22%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.99502.07612.05312.03012.00701.9840μ close = 2.0239O2.020 H2.041 L2.014 C2.033 (+0.65%)O2.020 H2.041 L2.014 C2.033 (+0.65%)O2.030 H2.048 L2.022 C2.038 (+0.41%)O2.030 H2.048 L2.022 C2.038 (+0.41%)O2.038 H2.040 L2.011 C2.034 (-0.19%)O2.038 H2.040 L2.011 C2.034 (-0.19%)O2.038 H2.062 L2.034 C2.050 (+0.57%)O2.038 H2.062 L2.034 C2.050 (+0.57%)O2.050 H2.051 L2.022 C2.049 (-0.04%)O2.050 H2.051 L2.022 C2.049 (-0.04%)O2.046 H2.056 L2.030 C2.035 (-0.54%)O2.046 H2.056 L2.030 C2.035 (-0.54%)O2.036 H2.040 L2.027 C2.038 (+0.11%)O2.036 H2.040 L2.027 C2.038 (+0.11%)O2.036 H2.076 L2.036 C2.053 (+0.80%)O2.036 H2.076 L2.036 C2.053 (+0.80%)O2.054 H2.059 L2.036 C2.041 (-0.64%)O2.054 H2.059 L2.036 C2.041 (-0.64%)O2.040 H2.059 L2.029 C2.053 (+0.65%)O2.040 H2.059 L2.029 C2.053 (+0.65%)O2.053 H2.061 L2.046 C2.049 (-0.20%)O2.053 H2.061 L2.046 C2.049 (-0.20%)O2.048 H2.072 L2.045 C2.046 (-0.10%)O2.048 H2.072 L2.045 C2.046 (-0.10%)-1.6%O2.049 H2.049 L2.011 C2.016 (-1.61%)O2.049 H2.049 L2.011 C2.016 (-1.61%)O2.016 H2.029 L2.008 C2.019 (+0.14%)O2.016 H2.029 L2.008 C2.019 (+0.14%)O2.016 H2.027 L2.010 C2.017 (+0.04%)O2.016 H2.027 L2.010 C2.017 (+0.04%)O2.015 H2.024 L2.013 C2.019 (+0.21%)O2.015 H2.024 L2.013 C2.019 (+0.21%)O2.019 H2.019 L1.988 C1.996 (-1.16%)O2.019 H2.019 L1.988 C1.996 (-1.16%)O1.993 H2.007 L1.984 C2.000 (+0.32%)O1.993 H2.007 L1.984 C2.000 (+0.32%)O2.002 H2.022 L1.995 C1.998 (-0.18%)O2.002 H2.022 L1.995 C1.998 (-0.18%)O2.000 H2.009 L1.991 C2.008 (+0.42%)O2.000 H2.009 L1.991 C2.008 (+0.42%)O2.007 H2.021 L2.002 C2.006 (-0.06%)O2.007 H2.021 L2.002 C2.006 (-0.06%)O2.005 H2.020 L1.988 C2.013 (+0.35%)O2.005 H2.020 L1.988 C2.013 (+0.35%)O2.012 H2.018 L1.994 C1.994 (-0.90%)O2.012 H2.018 L1.994 C1.994 (-0.90%)O1.995 H2.003 L1.995 C1.999 (+0.18%)O1.995 H2.003 L1.995 C1.999 (+0.18%)O1.999 H1.999 L1.993 C1.995 (-0.20%)O1.999 H1.999 L1.993 C1.995 (-0.20%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=219,994 · μ=8799.8 · σ=7909.4 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1006,58413,16819,75126,335μ = 88007,845.7 · 29.8% peak7,845.7 · 29.8% peak6,621.73 · 25.1% peak6,621.73 · 25.1% peak8,767.69 · 33.3% peak8,767.69 · 33.3% peak23,704.85 · 90.0% peak23,704.85 · 90.0% peak26,335.3326,335.33 · 100.0% peak26,335.33 · 100.0% peak9,400.47 · 35.7% peak9,400.47 · 35.7% peak6,030.23 · 22.9% peak6,030.23 · 22.9% peak9,214.38 · 35.0% peak9,214.38 · 35.0% peak6,868.91 · 26.1% peak6,868.91 · 26.1% peak7,026.97 · 26.7% peak7,026.97 · 26.7% peak2,257.19 · 8.6% peak2,257.19 · 8.6% peak2,834.97 · 10.8% peak2,834.97 · 10.8% peak11,117.8 · 42.2% peak11,117.8 · 42.2% peak10,816.07 · 41.1% peak10,816.07 · 41.1% peak4,298.34 · 16.3% peak4,298.34 · 16.3% peak2,915.43 · 11.1% peak2,915.43 · 11.1% peak26,271.79 · 99.8% peak26,271.79 · 99.8% peak3,608.08 · 13.7% peak3,608.08 · 13.7% peak5,347.59 · 20.3% peak5,347.59 · 20.3% peak2,485.53 · 9.4% peak2,485.53 · 9.4% peak2,895.78 · 11.0% peak2,895.78 · 11.0% peak25,154.39 · 95.5% peak25,154.39 · 95.5% peak5,286.58 · 20.1% peak5,286.58 · 20.1% peak2,288.15 · 8.7% peak2,288.15 · 8.7% peak599.94 · 2.3% peak599.94 · 2.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 219994 · peak 26335 · CV 0.90

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0054 · skew=-0.74 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.12 (mesokurtic)54310 1-138.73bpbin -138.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -138.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-119.81bpbin -119.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -119.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-100.89bp 1-81.97bpbin -81.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -81.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-63.05bpbin -63.05bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -63.05bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-44.13bp 3-25.21bpbin -25.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -25.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-6.29bpbin -6.29bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -6.29bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 412.63bpbin 12.63bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 12.63bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 331.55bpbin 31.55bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 31.55bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 150.47bpbin 50.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 50.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 369.39bpbin 69.39bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 69.39bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.80 · kurt=0.35 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.9955
Mid price
$1.9956
24h change
-1.59%
Mark–mid spread
0.50 bps
Prev-day close
$2.0277

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN2.0239$95% CI: [2.0158$, 2.0321$]
σ STD DEV0.0208$σ² = 4.316×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.03%
med MEDIAN2.0195$Q₁ 2.0060$ · Q₃ 2.0408$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0592$ · IQR 0.0348$ (1.349σ→0.0280$)
min 1.9942$Q₁ 2.0060$med 2.0195$Q₃ 2.0408$max 2.0534$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.040approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.587platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.85
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.06
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.078209%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.140
σᵣ STD / h0.560493%σ²ᵣ = 0.314×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.17×
σ ANNUALISED52.46%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.560%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.06negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.41downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.86left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.74mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.87
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-685.11%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.132%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.410%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.326%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.88%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.132%VaR₉₉−1.410%ES₉₅−1.326%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK205.34$
−2.88% drawdown over 13h
199.42$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.205 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.0616
Bollinger MA
$2.0197
Bollinger lower
$1.9778

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.315within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.090lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.983strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.017significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.983
H = 0.983STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.315k=2+0.090k=3-0.268k=4+0.382k=5-0.3620+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$438.09k
Open interest (USD)
$1.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.37x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.79% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.41%MILD BEARISH -1.88%BEST+0.79%15hWORST-1.48%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.88%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.19%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.18%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.88%+1.01%-1.92%0.25% · 13h0.25% · 13h0.25%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h0.79% · 15h0.79% · 15h0.79%15h★ BEST-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h-0.67% · 17h-0.67% · 17h-0.67%17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h0.70% · 19h0.70% · 19h0.70%19h-0.58% · 20h-0.58% · 20h-0.58%20h0.62% · 21h0.62% · 21h0.62%21h-0.22% · 22h-0.22% · 22h-0.22%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h-1.48% · 00h-1.48% · 00h-1.48%00h▼ WORST0.12% · 01h0.12% · 01h0.12%01h-0.09% · 02h-0.09% · 02h-0.09%02h0.14% · 03h0.14% · 03h0.14%03h-1.17% · 04h-1.17% · 04h-1.17%04h0.18% · 05h0.18% · 05h0.18%05h-0.05% · 06h-0.05% · 06h-0.05%06h0.47% · 07h0.47% · 07h0.47%07h-0.09% · 08h-0.09% · 08h-0.09%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h-0.91% · 10h-0.91% · 10h-0.91%10h0.23% · 11h0.23% · 11h0.23%11h-0.19% · 12h-0.19% · 12h-0.19%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.19%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.79% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.408%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.90%)FINAL-1.90%MAX DD-2.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9810 · peak 1.0100 · range [0.9807, 1.0100]1.01000.9807break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.91% · moderate0%-2.91%▼ TROUGH -2.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.91%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.72%bar 5-7 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.58%bar 9-9 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9810 (-1.90%) · max DD -2.91% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-13.13 · σ=22.26UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -5.47 (+0.34σ vs μ)57.8928.950.00-28.95-57.89μ = -13.138.648.6420.3020.308.678.674.594.590.000.0016.9716.97-21.01-21.01-36.78-36.78-26.60-26.60-42.80-42.80-57.89-57.89-48.69-48.69-26.81-26.81-14.64-14.64-14.65-14.65-9.24-9.24-2.87-2.87-1.26-1.26-5.47-5.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.472 · range [-57.89, 20.30] · μ -13.135 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.7434 · σ=8.9534 · range [45.6330, 75.7438] · R²=0.039▲ RISING +2.48%σ EXTREME 16.06%LAST 46.765075.743868.216160.688453.160745.6330μ = 55.7434max 75.7438min 45.6330dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.77% · range [45.63%, 75.74%] · μ 55.74% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.347 · σ=0.136MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.507 (-1.17σ vs μ)0.6580.3290.000-0.329-0.658μ = -0.347-0.263-0.263-0.130-0.130-0.220-0.220-0.427-0.427-0.517-0.517-0.658-0.658-0.237-0.237-0.345-0.345-0.199-0.199-0.272-0.272-0.378-0.378-0.402-0.402-0.427-0.427-0.312-0.312-0.314-0.314-0.167-0.167-0.328-0.328-0.492-0.492-0.507-0.507v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.507 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.5026
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1735
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
13.8925
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9835
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7580
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.9784
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0029
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0092
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3098
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.691 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.09e-5 · top T=2.00h (52.9%) · top-3 cover 75.3%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.56e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.56e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.59e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.59e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.96e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.96e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.95e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.95e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.29e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.29e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 52.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 52.9% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 52.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.913e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-32.03×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.07400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.07
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.18σ ann 60% · Sortino -12.93 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2301%-1827%-1352%-877%-403%72%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)59.9%Ann. vol σ-1917.6%Sharpe (ann)-1293.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.9061.9461.9852.0252.0642.103t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
5.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9aa6173f06c1b9517e7e595440a92eb0b27a621d92d07e4709dee73cf355ca4e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$793
bid $20 · ask $773
Depth within 5bp
$2.16K
bid $944 · ask $1.22K
Depth within 10bp
$7.72K
bid $3.07K · ask $4.65K
Depth within 50bp
$77.03K
bid $39.68K · ask $37.35K
Mid price
1.995450
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.123
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.119
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ar/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.99571.32bp1.99612FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.99749.89bp1.999510FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.001832.01bp2.006420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.99502.46bp1.99434FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.992614.11bp1.99119FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.989530.06bp1.985320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ar/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★19$176.59K
$1.0000–$2.00006$43.40K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ar/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.059 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$99.87K
real volume
Sell weight
$112.28K
real volume
Net delta
$12.42K
sellers net
Imbalance
-5.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ar/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.81% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h2.0534→2.01621.812%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h2.0195→1.99601.164%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h2.0125→1.99420.909%3

/api/asset/hl-ar/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
59.87%
σ per bar = 0.000261
Mean return (annualised)
-1148.01%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.76%
peak 2.02 → trough 1.98 over 804 bars

/api/asset/hl-ar/risk · same metrics, JSON