HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APEX

APEX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-apex · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.67%
realized vol (ann.)
133.15%
max drawdown
3.46%
sharpe
36.46
ulcer index
0.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5138.11
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1563.39
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.09
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.67%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +9.67%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-apex/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.280
24h Δ · live
9.67%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
APEX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2661 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.2560, 0.2874] · R²=0.847▲ RISING +9.06%σ NORMAL 3.63%LAST 0.28030.28740.27960.27170.26390.2560μ = 0.2661max 0.2874min 0.2560dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.28
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=516,458 · μ=20658.3 · σ=11741.3 · CV=0.57RISING +73% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16016,69333,38650,07966,772μ = 2065866,77250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 66772 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.2803
$mid $
$0.2804
◉prev-day close
$0.2556
Δ24h Δ %
+9.671%
$24h vol $
$137.23k
◐open interest $
$1.32M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2661 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.2560, 0.2874] · R²=0.847▲ RISING +9.06%σ NORMAL 3.63%LAST 0.28030.28740.27960.27170.26390.2560μ = 0.2661max 0.2874min 0.2560dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2803 · 24h 9.67% · range $[0.2560, 0.2874]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 19 · down 6 (76% up) · range [0.2556, 0.2904] · σ=0.0096 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=53%STRONG BULLISH +9.29%CLOSE 0.2803 vs OPEN 0.2565 (+9.29%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.28030.29040.28170.27300.26430.2556μ close = 0.2661O0.257 H0.257 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.257 H0.257 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.257 H0.257 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.23%)O0.257 H0.257 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.23%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.56%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.56%)O0.257 H0.259 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.47%)O0.257 H0.259 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.47%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.257 (-0.45%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.257 (-0.45%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.21%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.21%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.12%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.12%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.35%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.35%)O0.259 H0.261 L0.258 C0.261 (+0.92%)O0.259 H0.261 L0.258 C0.261 (+0.92%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.49%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.49%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (+0.28%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (+0.28%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (+0.09%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (+0.09%)O0.263 H0.267 L0.262 C0.267 (+1.58%)O0.263 H0.267 L0.262 C0.267 (+1.58%)O0.267 H0.269 L0.266 C0.267 (+0.07%)O0.267 H0.269 L0.266 C0.267 (+0.07%)O0.267 H0.270 L0.266 C0.270 (+1.02%)O0.267 H0.270 L0.266 C0.270 (+1.02%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.265 C0.267 (-1.00%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.265 C0.267 (-1.00%)O0.266 H0.269 L0.266 C0.269 (+0.79%)O0.266 H0.269 L0.266 C0.269 (+0.79%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.269 (+0.16%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.269 (+0.16%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.270 (+0.33%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.270 (+0.33%)O0.270 H0.277 L0.269 C0.276 (+2.30%)O0.270 H0.277 L0.269 C0.276 (+2.30%)O0.276 H0.281 L0.274 C0.281 (+1.74%)O0.276 H0.281 L0.274 C0.281 (+1.74%)2.6%O0.280 H0.289 L0.280 C0.287 (+2.60%)O0.280 H0.289 L0.280 C0.287 (+2.60%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.285 C0.287 (-0.14%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.285 C0.287 (-0.14%)O0.286 H0.286 L0.280 C0.280 (-2.14%)O0.286 H0.286 L0.280 C0.280 (-2.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=516,458 · μ=20658.3 · σ=11741.3 · CV=0.57RISING +73% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=16016,69333,38650,07966,772μ = 2065818,086 · 27.1% peak18,086 · 27.1% peak17,986 · 26.9% peak17,986 · 26.9% peak23,678 · 35.5% peak23,678 · 35.5% peak10,750 · 16.1% peak10,750 · 16.1% peak30,371 · 45.5% peak30,371 · 45.5% peak12,711 · 19.0% peak12,711 · 19.0% peak14,338 · 21.5% peak14,338 · 21.5% peak9,658 · 14.5% peak9,658 · 14.5% peak10,702 · 16.0% peak10,702 · 16.0% peak8,616 · 12.9% peak8,616 · 12.9% peak11,813 · 17.7% peak11,813 · 17.7% peak20,708 · 31.0% peak20,708 · 31.0% peak27,137 · 40.6% peak27,137 · 40.6% peak18,597 · 27.9% peak18,597 · 27.9% peak21,659 · 32.4% peak21,659 · 32.4% peak18,657 · 27.9% peak18,657 · 27.9% peak16,935 · 25.4% peak16,935 · 25.4% peak22,193 · 33.2% peak22,193 · 33.2% peak16,126 · 24.2% peak16,126 · 24.2% peak15,803 · 23.7% peak15,803 · 23.7% peak24,253 · 36.3% peak24,253 · 36.3% peak17,319 · 25.9% peak17,319 · 25.9% peak24,506 · 36.7% peak24,506 · 36.7% peak66,77266,772 · 100.0% peak66,772 · 100.0% peak37,084 · 55.5% peak37,084 · 55.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 516458 · peak 66772 · CV 0.57

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0034 · σ=0.0097 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=0.93 (mesokurtic)108530 1-230.17bpbin -230.17bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -230.17bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-189.57bp-148.98bp 1-108.38bpbin -108.38bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -108.38bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 1-67.79bpbin -67.79bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -67.79bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 2-27.19bpbin -27.19bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -27.19bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 1013.40bpbin 13.40bp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 13.40bp · n=10 · 100.0% peak 354.00bpbin 54.00bp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 54.00bp · n=3 · 30.0% peak 294.60bpbin 94.60bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 94.60bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak135.19bp 2175.79bpbin 175.79bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 175.79bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 2216.38bpbin 216.38bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 216.38bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 18 · negative 6
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.36 · kurt=1.39 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2803
Mid price
$0.2804
24h change
+9.67%
Mark–mid spread
2.14 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2556

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.88)
μ MEAN0.2661$95% CI: [0.2623$, 0.2698$]
σ STD DEV0.0096$σ² = 0.931×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.63%
med MEDIAN0.2626$Q₁ 0.2575$ · Q₃ 0.2696$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0314$ · IQR 0.0120$ (1.349σ→0.0130$)
min 0.2560$Q₁ 0.2575$med 0.2626$Q₃ 0.2696$max 0.2874$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.881right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.392mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.08
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=32.96
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.361237%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.352
σᵣ STD / h1.025657%σ²ᵣ = 1.052×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.84×
σ ANNUALISED96.00%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.026%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)32.96excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)29.36strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.38approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.03leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3164.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.01%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.014%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.182%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.803%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.47%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.014%VaR₉₉−2.182%ES₉₅−1.803%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK28.74$
−2.47% drawdown over 1h
28.03$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.78× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.54% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
70.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.815 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2874
Bollinger MA
$0.2683
Bollinger lower
$0.2492

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.125within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.038lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.950strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+11.274significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.950
H = 0.950STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.125k=2-0.038k=3-0.242k=4-0.264k=5-0.0140+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.27)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.27)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$137.23k
Open interest (USD)
$1.32M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.37% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.76%BULLISH SESSION +8.67%BEST+2.37%10hWORST-2.50%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.67%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.35% · Σ +2.79%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.54% · Σ +4.32%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.56%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.67%+11.17%-0.39%-0.39% · 13h-0.39% · 13h-0.39%13h0.56% · 14h0.56% · 14h0.56%14h0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.19% · 17h-0.19% · 17h-0.19%17h0.21% · 18h0.21% · 18h0.21%18h0.20% · 19h0.20% · 19h0.20%19h0.41% · 20h0.41% · 20h0.41%20h0.89% · 21h0.89% · 21h0.89%21h0.29% · 22h0.29% · 22h0.29%22h0.27% · 23h0.27% · 23h0.27%23h0.10% · 00h0.10% · 00h0.10%00h1.59% · 01h1.59% · 01h1.59%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h1.06% · 03h1.06% · 03h1.06%03h-1.10% · 04h-1.10% · 04h-1.10%04h0.74% · 05h0.74% · 05h0.74%05h0.16% · 06h0.16% · 06h0.16%06h0.29% · 07h0.29% · 07h0.29%07h2.23% · 08h2.23% · 08h2.23%08h1.69% · 09h1.69% · 09h1.69%09h2.37% · 10h2.37% · 10h2.37%10h★ BEST0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-2.50% · 12h-2.50% · 12h-2.50%12h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+4.32%)RUNSup max 8 · down max 2BREADTH75% up · 25% down
18 up bars · 6 down · best 2.37% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.758%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.91%FINAL+8.91%MAX DD-2.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 1 barsMAX RUN-UP+11.71%UNDERWATER10/25 (40%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0891 · peak 1.1171 · range [0.9961, 1.1171]1.11710.9961break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1171UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.50% · moderate0%-2.50%▼ TROUGH -2.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.50%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.10%bar 17-19 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.71%bar 5-8 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 1 barsTIME UNDER WATER40% of session · 10/25 bars
final equity 1.0891 (8.91%) · max DD -2.50% · time-under-water 10/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +18 / −1 (95% positive) · μ=60.58 · σ=39.68PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 34.92 (-0.65σ vs μ)135.0767.540.00-67.54-135.07μ = 60.58-0.56-0.5623.0923.0918.6118.6131.7031.7080.3680.36135.07135.07120.38120.3899.2899.2878.5978.5979.7579.7531.3931.3938.4738.4739.5539.5522.9822.9847.8147.8152.7352.73119.27119.2797.6897.6834.9234.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 34.920 · range [-0.56, 135.07] · μ 60.582 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.6652 · σ=37.6589 · range [24.5842, 172.3354] · R²=0.760▲ RISING +327.14%σ EXTREME 54.06%LAST 172.3354172.3354135.397698.459861.522024.5842μ = 69.6652max 172.3354min 24.5842dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 172.34% · range [24.58%, 172.34%] · μ 69.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.142 · σ=0.344CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.212 (+1.03σ vs μ)0.7370.3680.000-0.368-0.737μ = -0.142-0.161-0.1610.1560.1560.0420.0420.3460.3460.1600.1600.0110.0110.0220.022-0.248-0.248-0.518-0.518-0.586-0.586-0.468-0.468-0.594-0.594-0.535-0.535-0.737-0.737-0.252-0.2520.1490.1490.3330.333-0.023-0.0230.2120.212v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.212 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.7322
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0938
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.3925
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4959
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9293
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.5652
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5719
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8173
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2529
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.923 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.04e-4 · top T=6.00h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 46.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.46e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.46e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.20e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.20e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.11e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.11e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.91e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.91e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.58e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.58e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.05e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.05e-5 · 6.4% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.250e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.006%/barparametric μ/σ² 32.52× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
32.52×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 29.78400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.013
annualized 29.78
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.15%
VaR 95%5%
0.15%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.33%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.91×0.95×1.00×1.04×1.09×1.14×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 36.99σ ann 114% · Sortino 22.82 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%888%1775%2663%3551%4438%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)113.7%Ann. vol σ3698.6%Sharpe (ann)2282.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2550.2640.2740.2830.2930.302t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:58 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3166e51f0a5429d9ee5ef16e5d1d54a0be70f4729b1ed1ce6f004cfd1217b019 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.34K
bid $882 · ask $1.46K
Depth within 50bp
$16.72K
bid $9.85K · ask $6.87K
Mid price
0.280530
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
14.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.059
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.212
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apex/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2807307.13bp0.2807301FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.28147133.53bp0.28237014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.28178644.78bp0.28302020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2803167.62bp0.2802403FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.27983724.69bp0.27910014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.27959633.29bp0.27852020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-apex/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$516.46K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apex/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.451 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
18 / 6
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$361.63K
real volume
Sell weight
$136.75K
real volume
Net delta
$224.88K
buyers net
Imbalance
45.12%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
45.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-apex/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.287440→0.2803302.474%1
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.269570→0.2666201.094%1
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.258310→0.2564700.712%3

/api/asset/hl-apex/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
113.73%
σ per bar = 0.000496
Mean return (annualised)
4206.38%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
36.99
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.46%
peak 0.29 → trough 0.28 over 332 bars

/api/asset/hl-apex/risk · same metrics, JSON